Sam Martin
Arkansas at SMU
Prediction: SMU
Larry Brown's SMU Mustangs are just 2-2 so far this season, but those losses will help this team going forward as they were tested on the road against credible foes in Gonzaga and Indiana. Arkansas has yet to face any credible opponents, having three wins against Alabama State, Wake Forest, and Delaware State while listed as double-digit favorites twice and one non-lined game. We think that quality competition pays off for SMU starting tonight and we'll back them at home to win and cover this small number.
Mustangs defensive numbers have been very good all year, but it's their shooting numbers that make us like them here. Outside of that loss at Gonzaga, SMU has shot very well including 57% against the Hoosiers. They also shot 61% and 49% from the floor against overmatched foes, and with Arkansas not yet facing a quality offensive team like SMU we give the Mustangs the edge tonight. Razorbacks are just 1-11 ATS on the road after a win by ten or more points, and we'll back the home side to win easily!
Bryan Power
Calgary vs. Anaheim
Pick: Calgary +1.5
The Flames have already beaten Anaheim once this month, 4-3 at home. That was part of a recently completed 4-1 homestand as this club continues to surprise. They now have 28 points and the best goal differential in the division. With Calgary playing so well right now, certainly better than Anaheim is, I'll lay the juice to get the added insurance (+1.5) on the puck line here.
The Ducks have won their last two games, but overall this has not been a good month. They have just four wins in November, and all of them have come by exactly one goal. So again, we have a case for playing the puck line in this one. Sunday's win over Arizona was Anaheim's first in regulation since November 2nd. Going all the way back to October 28th, each of the Ducks' last six victories have come by a one-goal margin.Eight of their last 11 games have gone beyond regulation.
Calgary has certainly had its share of problems winning at The Pond, as they are 0-12-5 their last 17 visits here. But this time, they have the edge in net. Former Duck Jonas Hiller is now between the pipes for them and has been excellent this year w/ a .914 save percentage. Anaheim's Frederik Andersen had a 3.62 GAA over five starts before Sunday's win. I'm recommending the Flames on the puck line here.
Mr. Vegas
Kings at Pelicans
Take: Over
Sacramento a surprise team this year. Not much was expected out of the Kings, but they have posted a nice 8-5 record to start the season. They have also been a surprise to bettors, getting the money in nine of 12 decisions. On the Road, this club is a very good OVER team, posting a 5-2 O/U mark. This is due to a high offensive efficiency (110.9) and a poor defensive efficiency (109). Those kinds of numbers result in OVERS. Especially when you toss in a better than average pace number (possessions per 48 minutes). You can say the same for the Pelicans, who boast a 4-1 O/U mark at home thanks to a great efficiency number of 117.2 and a fast 94.9 pace. The Kings have scored 100 or more points in three straight games while New Orleans has done the same in all but three of its games this season. The Pelicans are 7-1-1 O/U in its last nine games. Have to like both of these clubs to keep that fast pace going and with their respective offensive numbers - I like the OVER here on Tuesday.
Nelly
Nebraska - over Nebraska-Omaha
Normally the underdog will look appealing in this type of nearby in-state matchup with the smaller school getting a shot at the bigger fish but this situation could set up well for the hosting Cornhuskers. Nebraska-Omaha enters this game coming off a Saturday upset over Marquette, a prominent program but a team that is going through a major transition with a new coaching staff, new style, and nearly a complete turnover of the roster. Marquette is not the team it has been the past few seasons so the upset was not as impressive as it sounds. The Mavericks shot over 57 percent in the game while getting 26 points at the line as they were able to survive 19 turnovers. Omaha beat Marquette soundly on the boards, something that won't happen in this matchup even though rebounding has been a weak spot for Nebraska early this season. Nebraska-Omaha won't be able to get away with turnovers against a Nebraska team with nearly everyone back this season. The Cornhuskers went 11-7 in Big Ten play last season to make the NCAA Tournament but on Saturday Rhode Island slipped past Nebraska for a minor upset for the first loss of the season for the Cornhuskers. That was the first road game for Nebraska and the front court size for the Rams was a problem with a 49-30 rebounding deficit, something that won't be as big of an issue tonight. Nebraska shot less than 37 percent in the game including just 15 percent from 3-point shooting while suffering a big deficit at the free throw line in the game, numbers that are not likely to repeat. Nebraska went 15-1 S/U at home last season with the only loss coming by one point against Michigan and the Cornhuskers should bounce back in a situation that sets up extremely well with Omaha coming off a big win.
Sammy P
Colorado at Arizona
Play: Colorado +115
Colorado heads to Arizona tonight with both teams underperforming in the standings. The Avalanche have to be the bigger disappointment of the two as no one predicted the Coyotes to make much noise in the West. Despite the teams taking up two of the last three spots in the Western Conference, one team is heading in the right direction while the other remains stagnant. The Avalanche dug themselves into a pretty big hole early in the season, losing six of their first seven games. But they look to have righted the ship with three wins in their last four games and perhaps a season defining moment in their come-from-behind victory on Saturday night against the Carolina Hurricanes. I am always looking for positive momentum and confidence building situations with good teams, and it looks like we have just that after the Avs mounted a two-goal comeback in the second and third periods to win 4-3. They are still playing without a few key players in their lineup, but they have been plugging and playing just fine with their call ups from the AHL. Arizona has been in a funk all season long and they aren't coming out of it soon. Their goaltender Mike Smith is the only reason this team isn't last in the NHL in points as Smith has stood tall in net for the Coyotes. This should play out in a low scoring contest as we have seen recently from both of these teams. Colorado is getting a nice dog price in a situation where they are playing the better hockey, and coming in with much more confidence. This is the time to ride out this win streak with a talented team that has underachieved to date.
Wunderdog
Arkansas @ SMU
Pick: SMU -3.5
The Arkansas Razorbacks are off to a quick start, wining their first three games. Arkansas has not taken to the road yet this season and that is where things typically turn very ugly for this team. Arkansas is 8-37 ATS on the road against an opponent that is .500 or better on the season, that is also off a win, when the line is less than +11. They are also in a subset of that which is 0-26 ATS in the last 26 occurrences. SMU lost to some pretty good teams on the road in Gonzaga, and Indiana, but are 2-0 at home on the season, moving them to 16-1 straight-up in their last 17 home games. Arkansas just can't be taken seriously in this spot vs. a strong team with a good pedigree of taking down all comers at home. Play on SMU.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Ohio -3 over MIAMI-OH: With these two offenses its hard to look anywhere but the Under, But I will look at the Bobcat side here. The Bobcats may not make it to a bowl game, but getting to bowl eligible is big for all schools, plus while the offenses are equally bad, there is a big defensive edge that goes to the Bobcats. I feel the Bobcats will play the much better game in this one and be a bit more fired up than a Miami team that is looking to next year. Miami is 3-9-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games, while the Bobcats are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Also note that the Under is 4-1 the last 5 in this series. 23-14 bobcats sounds about right.
Andre Gomes
Atlanta Hawks +4
Atlanta has a great chance of being competitive with Nene out tonight. With the Brazilian out, Washington will start Gooden, as that's obviously a big decrease in quality. The Hawks' poor interior defense would get pounded by Nene down low, but Gooden is a mid-range shooter with no interest in attacking the rim whatsoever.
The Hawks have Carroll back and with him back in the lineup, the Hawks' defense is now once again more consistent. Atlanta's frontcourt with Horford and Millsap will also be a very tough match up for Washington and so, I expect this game to be a very close one. Therefore, I'll be taking the Hawks tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
HARVARD -11 over Houston
The Cougars are 2-0 with wins over two cupcakes in Murray State and Morgan State. Despite playing two garbage teams, the Cougars are shooting .387 from the floor, a mark that ranks them 299th in the country. Houston is a team not only in transition but they’re a team in big trouble. The Cougars top two scorers from last year, TaShawn Thomas and guard Danuel House, both quit the team and asked for permission to transfer. Thomas led the Cougars in scoring last season with 15.4 points per game and rebounding with 8.1 per game while House was the second-leading scorer in with an average of 13.6 points per game. Both said they didn’t want to remain with the program because of the coaching change in which Kelvin Sampson replaced James Dickey. That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for Sampson or for recruits either. The Cougars are in no position to win or compete against top quality teams on the road and that applies here.
Harvard is 2-1 after a surprising loss to Holy Cross and because of that loss they are underpriced here. Had they defeated the Crusaders by double digits like they were expected to, the Crimson would be an 18-point favorite here. Sometime in the next few weeks, expect to see Harvard in the top-25 because they are that good. Tommy Amaker has built the Crimson into an Ivy power over the past few seasons with the program not only getting to the NCAA tourney but also winning games each of the past two years. Amaker has a really good backcourt in Wesley Saunders and Siyani Chambers, and he has no shortage of physical big men. "They have one of the best backcourts in the entire country -- and both of them are veterans," one coach said. That loss to Holy Cross was a good reminder that you can’t take a night off and now this outstanding shooting team should be able to name the score against this extremely weak and vulnerable opponent.
SPORTS WAGERS
Winnipeg -103 over COLUMBUS
OT included. The Jackets are getting healthier but they need serious help defensively and there just isn’t any to be found. Columbus has been outscored 13-5 over its past three games and outshot over their last four games, 40-28, 41-28, 37-22 and 37-28. That’s a defensive bloodbath that no team can endure and now the Jackets will have to face an extremely hungry opponent.
Enter the Winnipeg Jets, a 10-12 squad that we put in the same category as the Detroit Red Wings, that being a rock-solid unit that hasn’t had much go their way. According to Sagarin ratings, Winnipeg has played the toughest schedule in the NHL. The Jets remain high on our radar because because of their misleading record. Winnipeg often dominates but hasn’t had the same luck as other teams in terms of scoring. They’ve had as many scoring chances as some of the top teams in the league but have run into some hot goaltending and the puck just isn’t going in for them. That will even out over time. We know for sure that Winnipeg’s defense is outstanding and they roll out three great lines that all can create. Winnipeg ranks high in several advance stats categories and it’s only a matter of time before we see some ascension. It’s remarkable that the Maple Leafs, Senators and Rangers have a better winning percentage when Winnipeg is vastly superior to all three. We also love the fact that Michael Hutchinson gets the start in goal for Winnipeg. This kid is tremendous. He’s 3-1 in four starts with a GAA of 1.38 and save percentage of .948 and it’s not a fluke. The schedule now gets easier for the Jets and they figure to take advantage. Invest.
Edmonton +162 over DALLAS
OT included. The Oilers are tied with Buffalo and Columbus for the fewest wins in the NHL but that shouldn’t be because the Oilers have too much talent to be on the same level as Buffalo. Edmonton has dropped six in a row with the last five all coming in its own rink. On Saturday, the Oilers were loudly booed off the ice after losing 7-1 to Chicago (there was even a jersey throwing display like the one in Toronto recently). The good news for Edmonton is that they get away from the pressure at home for a three game trip that starts here and ends with games in Nashville and St. Louis. This is most definitely the Oilers best chance for a win because the Stars are extremely beatable. Edmonton is not getting outplayed. They are losing because their goaltending hasn’t been strong and their getting scored upon at the worst possible times. In their five-game losing streak at home, Edmonton outshot four of those five opponents and even against Chicago they only allowed 30 shots on net. In Edmonton’s last road trip, a five gamer from November 4 to 11, they played their best hockey of the year, going 2-3 but could have easily gone 3-2 or 4-1. The timing for another trip is good and we can almost guarantee a strong and spirited effort from the Oilers after an embarrassing loss, a six game losing streak and an intense 90-minute practice on Monday.
You won’t find a riskier favorite in this price range than the Dallas Stars. Dallas just won consecutive home games for the first time this year but neither win was impressive and prior to that they had one home win in nine games. The Stars last two home victories occurred against Arizona and Los Angeles. Against Arizona, Dallas was down a goal going to the third period but they rallied with three goals in the third on nine shots. Against Los Angeles, Dallas was up 3-0 after one period and 4-0 five minutes into the second period after scoring those four goals in 14 shots. They hung on for a 5-4 victory but were outshot 41-23 in that game, including 16-2 in the third period. Hanging on for dear life to get that win over the Kings is an understatement. Advance stats say that Dallas is a team that spends way too much time running around in their own end. Against the league’s top 10 teams, they are 2-8 but both those wins came very early. Dallas is on a current run of 0-7 against top top-10 teams. The Stars are also 4-10 overall against top-16 teams. Obviously Edmonton is not a top-16 team. We’re merely pointing out that Dallas isn’t much better than Edmonton, if it all. Dallas had high projections this year from many so called experts but they are as flawed defensively as any team in the NHL and that makes them a huge risk laying this kind of weight. Give Edmonton a legit shot of getting off the mattress here.
Calgary +151 over ANAHEIM
OT included. We have no problems with the Ducks whatsoever. They are a decent team that is always dangerous because they feature some of the best talent in the NHL. That said, this one is all about playing value and that value is not on the Ducks.
The Ducks and Flames have identical 13-9 records. Calgary’s strength of schedule (SOS) ranks 15th, while the Ducks SOS ranks 23rd. The Flames continue to win games and score goals yet the market still doesn’t believe in them. That’s fine by us because it provides us with opportunities that we’ll attempt to take advantage of. Calgary has scored four goals or more in seven of its past 10 games. They were a dog at home to Anaheim last week and defeated them 4-3 in OT. Contrary to what the market is saying, these Flames aren’t going away. They are for real and they’re only going to get better once they get some healthy bodies back. Calgary is strong up the middle, they’re strong defensively, they can score and they continue to offer up great value almost every game. This one is no exception.
Jeff Clement
Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards
Play:Washington Wizards -6.5
Atlanta(6-5) at Washington(9-4): The Hawks are 1-7 ATS last 8 games following a ATS win and 1-4 last 5 meetings in Washington. The Wizards are 6-2 ATS last 8 games after allowing more than 100 points and 6-1-2 ATS last 9 meetings with Atlanta.
Dave Price
Detroit Pistons +3
The Pistons won the season's first meeting 98-93 at home. It was their second consecutive win over the Bucks and fifth in six games (the lone loss came by only three points). While some will be looking to play the revenge angle with Milwaukee, there is plenty of evidence saying that's the wrong move. Milwaukee is on a 25-43 ATS slide at home when seeking revenge for a loss of three points or less. In addition, when the line is +3 to -3, you want to fade home teams that are looking for revenge for a loss to an opponent if that opponent checks in off a road loss. Doing so has produced a 129-78 ATS mark the last five seasons. The Bucks have won four of six at home, but the Pistons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a winning home record. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Doug Upstone
Michigan vs. Villanova
Play: Villanova -4½
Play Against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like MICHIGAN in a game involving two good shooting teams (45-47.5 percent), after two straight games attempting 10 or more free throws than opponent. What happens here is teams like Michigan as underdogs mostly likely will not have the same free throw edge against what the oddsmakers have determined is the better team, which takes away one of their strengths. Teams like the Wolverines are only 9-31 ATS since 2010.
Will Rogers
Devils vs. Canucks
Play: Under 5
The Vancouver Canucks must be considered as one of the bigger surprises in the NHL this season after finishing the 2013-2014 season third last in the Eastern Conference. They've done so mostly by outscoring their opponents, but they will face a formidable Devils defense, and former Canuck Corey Schneider between he pipes.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Goaltending - Ryan Miller is showing a 13-3-0 record since joining the Canucks, which is a better record than any other No. 1 netminder in the NHL this season. He's done so despite a rather high 2.63 GAA, but tonight could be a good opportunity to better those numbers as he's posted a 1.54 GAA over the last 11 meetings with the Devils, winning seven of them. Corey Schneider is returning to face the club he represented 2008-2013 showing a 1.41 GAA with two shutouts over a 3-2-0 stretch.
2. Trends - Five of the Devils last six have gone under the total, and don't expect to see a lot of fireworks tonight as none of the last four meetings in Vancouver have gone over the total.
3. X-Factor - The Devils are testing their opponents goalie less than any other team in the NHL, bar Buffalo, averaging a lowly 26.4 shots per game.
OC Dooley
North Carolina-Charlotte +5.5
These pair of sides just met a couple of days ago which brings to the table the issue of “familiarity” for the home underdog. It is easy to see why Miami (5-0) is the favorite since a team that began the new campaign unranked is now #17 in the latest rankings. Last Monday the Hurricanes made national news when traveling to Florida and snapping the Gators 33-0 home wave of prosperity. The Hurricanes are led by the same Jim Larranaga who once led George Mason to a magical run to the NCAA Final Four. But as mentioned it was just a couple of days ago on a neutral court when the Hurricanes pummeled Charlotte by a 77-58 final count and the 49ers now have a feel for their personnel and style. In addition it is worth noting that in the past two years when taking the court in the month of NOVEMBER very quietly North Carolina-Charlotte (8-1 ATS) has been very kind to investors