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Bowling Green (3-5 SU and ATS) at Buffalo (3-5, 3-4 ATS)
Two teams coming off losses to Michigan schools get together for a Mid-American Conference East Division showdown, as the Falcons visit Buffalo for a prime-time matchup.
Bowling Green followed up a pair of conference road wins over Kent State (36-35) and Ball State (31-17) with a 24-10 home loss to Central Michigan on Oct. 24, failing to cover as a 9½-point underdog. The Falcons are just 2-5 SU and ATS since a season-opening 17-point rout of Troy, and they’re 2-2 SU and ATS on the road this season.
The Bulls took Western Michigan to overtime on Oct. 24, falling 34-31 to snap a modest two-game win streak, though they covered as a 5½-point road underdog. Like Bowling Green, Buffalo opened the season with a victory (23-17 at UTEP as a 10½-point ‘dog), but since then it has dropped five of seven, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS against Division I-A competition. Buffalo is 2-2 (2-1 ATS) at home.
Two of the last three meetings between these schools have gone into overtime, including last year’s matchup at Bowling Green, which Buffalo won 40-34 as a 4½-point road underdog. The Bulls trailed 14-0 and 27-7 but battled back and scored the tying touchdown with 37 seconds left, then prevailed in double-overtime to end a four-game SU losing streak to Bowling Green. Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings, with the underdog covering in all four contests and the road team going 3-0 ATS in the last three.
Bowling Green has scored 20 points or less in four of its games (going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS) and 31 points or more in its other four games (going 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS). Behind quality QB Tyler Sheehan (2,677 passing yards, 15 TDs, 5 INTs), the Falcons are averaging 406.5 total yards per game (341.4 passing ypg). Defensively, Bowling Green surrenders 28.4 ppg, yielding 24 or more in five of eight games, and the Falcons are getting out-rushed by an average of 149 ypg (214-65).
After scoring only 93 points in their first five contests (18.6 per game) – tallying 23 or less four times – the Bulls have scored 92 in their last three (30.7 ppg). They roll up 411 total yards of offense per game, including 149.5 rushing ypg (4.2 per carry), but the defense gives up 25.6 points and 353 total ypg (150 rushing ypg). The Bulls have yielded 33.6 ppg in their five defeats compared with just 12.3 ppg in their three wins.
Bowling Green is on positive ATS runs of 9-2 on the road, 4-0 as a road ‘dog, 6-1 in November, 7-3 against losing teams and 7-3 after a non-cover. However, in addition to going 1-5 ATS in their last six overall, the Falcons have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 after a bye, four of five on Tuesday and four straight following an outright loss.
The Bulls are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 against opponents with a losing record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 November outings, but otherwise they’re in pointspread slumps of 1-6 at home, 0-5 as a favorite (all at home) and 1-5-1 after a bye.
The Falcons have topped the total in four straight Tuesday contests and four of five after a bye, but Bowling Green also carries “under” trends of 7-3 overall, 9-4 in MAC action, 6-1 on the road, 9-1 as an underdog and 7-0 as a road pup. Buffalo has stayed low in four of its last five at home, but the over is 7-3 in its last 10 MAC games and 5-2 in its last seven in November. Finally, the under has cashed in all three Falcons-Bulls meetings in Buffalo this decade.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
Boston (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (2-1 SU and ATS)
The Celtics try to become the first NBA team to get to 5-0 when they travel to the Wachovia Center for an Atlantic Division clash with the 76ers.
After opening the season with a 95-89 upset victory at Cleveland as a five-point underdog, Boston went home and scored three straight double-digit routs of Charlotte (92-59), Chicago (118-90) and New Orleans (97-87). The Celtics covered easily as a double-digit favorite against the Bobcats and Bulls, but came up just start as an 11-point chalk in Sunday’s win over the Hornets. Boston’s defense is in midseason form, yielding just 81.2 ppg, holding all four opponents to 90 points or less.
Philadelphia followed up a 120-106 season-opening loss at Orlando with a pair of blowout wins, crushing the Bucks 99-86 as a six-point home favorite on Friday and the Knicks 141-127 in overtime as a 2½-point road chalk Saturday. In the victory at New York, four Sixers scored at least 20 points and three had double-doubles, led by Andre Iguodala’s 32 points and 11 rebounds, and Philly shot 60.7 percent from the field and had a 49-31 rebounding edge.
Boston swept the season series against Philadelphia last year, going 3-1 ATS. However, after two blowout home wins (102-78; 110-91), the Celtics barely held on at the Wachovia Center, winning 100-99 as a three-point favorite and 100-98 as a 6½-point ‘dog in a meaningless game in mid-April. The Celtics have won seven of the last eight meetings, going 6-2-1 ATS, including 2-1-1 ATS in Philadelphia.
Going back several years, the Celtics are on a 12-4-1 ATS roll in this rivalry and they’re 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 trips to Philly. Also, the visitor is 17-8-1 ATS in the past 26 head-to-head meetings, and the SU winner is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine.
Boston is on additional ATS runs of 9-3-1 on the road, 37-17-2 against Atlantic Division foes and 9-2 following a non-cover. Philadelphia carries positive pointspread runs of 4-0 after a SU win, 7-1 after a double-digit victory and 5-1 when playing on two days’ rest.
The under is 6-2 in Boston’s last eight games (2-2 this year), but otherwise the over is on stretches of 5-0 for Boston against Atlantic Division rivals, 6-1 for Boston on Tuesday, 4-1 for Philadelphia in divisional contests, 8-2-1 for Philly when playing on two days’ rest and 11-5 for Philadelphia on Tuesday. Finally, the over is 13-6 in the last 19 series clashes at the Wachovia Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
Phoenix (3-0, 1-2 ATS) at Miami (3-0 SU and ATS)
The Suns begin a five-game, seven-day Eastern Conference road trip with a stop at American Airlines Arena for a clash with the Heat in a battle of unbeaten teams.
Phoenix, which ended last season on a three-game winning streak, has won three in a row to start this year, albeit against the Clippers (109-107 on the road), Warriors (123-101 at home) and Timberwolves (120-112 at home). The Suns have scored at least 109 points throughout their six-game winning streak (average of 116.3 ppg), but they’re just 3-3 ATS (all as a favorite), including failing to cover as a 13-point home favorite against Minnesota on Sunday.
Like Phoenix, Miami has feasted on a soft schedule to begin the season, pounding the Knicks (115-93 at home), Pacers (96-83 on the road) and Bulls (95-87). Going back to last year’s playoff series against Atlanta – which Miami lost in seven games – the Heat have held 11 of 12 opponents to 96 points or less, yielding 90 or fewer six times. Dwyane Wade, who won the league scoring title last year, is off to a fast start, pouring 27.7 points per contest.
The Heat have won three in a row and cashed in four straight in this rivalry (all as an underdog). Last year, Miami prevailed 107-92 as an eight-point road ‘dog and 135-129 as a 2½-point home favorite. Prior to the Heat’s current three-game SU winning streak against Phoenix, the Suns had won five in a row in this series.
The visitor is 5-2 SU in the last seven series meetings, but the host has cashed in eight of the last 11, with the Suns going 1-7 ATS in their last eight visits to South Beach. Also, the winner has scored at least 106 points in nine of the past 10 matchups, and the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10.
Phoenix has cashed in seven straight games after a non-cover, while Miami is on pointspread surges of 4-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 9-2-1 on Tuesday and 21-8-1 against the Pacific Division.
The last four meetings between these teams have topped the total, and the over is also 4-0 in Miami’s last four games against the Pacific Division and 4-0 in its last four against teams with a winning record. However, the under is on runs of 4-1 for the Heat overall, 4-1 for the Heat at home, 6-0 for the Heat after a spread-cover, 6-2 for the Suns at home, 4-0 for the Suns on the road and 7-1 for the Suns against Southeast Division opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI
DUNKEL
Bowling Green at Buffalo
The Falcons look to build on their 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 road games. Bowling Green is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Buffalo favored by only 2. Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+3 1/2)
Game 301-302: Bowling Green at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 77.285; Buffalo 79.520
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 2; 50
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+3 1/2); Under
NBA
Denver at Indiana
The Nuggets look to build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 road games. Denver is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Nuggets favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Denver (-4 1/2)
Game 701-702: Washington at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 116.531; Cleveland 125.154
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 8 1/2; 189 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 703-704: Denver at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.686; Indiana 121.337
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 6 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 4 1/2; 226
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-4 1/2); Under
Game 705-706: Boston at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 124.919; Philadelphia 116.434
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 8 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 7; 191
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-7); Under
Game 707-708: Orlando at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 126.969; Detroit 118.631
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 8 1/2; 175
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 709-710: Phoenix at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 119.783; Miami 121.328
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 1 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 3 1/2; 216
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+3 1/2); Under
Game 711-712: Milwaukee at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 114.405; Chicago 121.834
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 7 1/2; 198 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 713-714: LA Lakers at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 125.352; Oklahoma City 119.027
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6 1/2; 195 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 7 1/2; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+7 1/2); Over
Game 715-716: Utah at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 115.729; Dallas 122.705
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 7; 207 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 5 1/2; 200
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-5 1/2); Over
Game 717-718: Atlanta at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 119.511; Portland 127.643
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 8; 187 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
NY Rangers at Vancouver
The Rangers look to build on their 6-2 record in their last 8 games versus the Western Conference. New York is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+105)
Game 51-52: Boston at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 12.255; Detroit 12.150
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+160); Over
Game 53-54: Tampa Bay at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.005; Toronto 10.644
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+130); Over
Game 55-56: Atlanta at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.618; Montreal 11.880
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-145); 6
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-145); Over
Game 57-58: NY Rangers at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.037; Vancouver 11.820
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+105); Under
Game 59-60: Pittsburgh at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.685; Anaheim 11.507
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+110); Under
Scott Spreitzer
Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers
Phil Jackson is looking for a complete game by his troops and I believe he'll get it tonight. First of all, nothing like a chance to "bond" away from home. And it's especially nice when your team owns serious matchup advantages. OKC superstar Kevin Durant is likely going to draw specialist Ron Artest, who will take this as a serious challenge. But the Lakers truly own a huge advantage (more than normal) on the offensive end. The Thunder has no one to matchup with Kobe Bryant. Okay, so most teams don't, but OKC may have to defend Kobe with Thabo Sefolosha, according to local OKC reports. Bryant has had his way with the Thunder, and tonight should be no different. OKC started the season with a pair of soft matchups, beating the Pistons and Kings. They lost last time out when the opposing talent stepped up a notch. OKC lost at home to Portland on Sunday, scoring just 74-points on 24 of 70, 34% shooting. The loss dropped OKC to 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games going back to last season, including 1-5 ATS as a dog. The Lakers beat the Thunder by 18-points and 14-points the last two times on this floor. I expect more of the same on Tuesday. I'm laying the points with the Lakers.
Rob Vinciletti
Bowling Green vs. Buffalo U
Play: Bowling Green +3.5
The Falcons are 6-1 ats on th eroad vs less than .500 teams and have home loss revenge from a 40-34 loss last year. They did win here two years ago as a small dog 31-17. Buffalo is not nearly as good as they were last year and have struggled on defense. Look for Bowling green to get the cover here tonight and maybe win outright. On the Late phone front we look to rebound from a subpar night.On Tuesday I have the NBA non-conference total of the month. This big play has a 13-2 system and a 10-1 Power Angle built into the writeup. Jump on tonight as we make amends for Monday and cash out on the hard wood.
JIM FEIST
BOSTON CELTICS / PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
TAKE: BOSTON CELTICS
Think Boston is going to let up? Not with fiery Kevin Garnett, and certainly not against a division rival. The Celtics are 4-0 as the shut down the New Orleans Hornets 97-87 behind Paul Pierce's 27 points. This team is deep, healthy and talented, outscoring opponents by 19 ppg (100-81 average). KG makes such a huge different defensively and he is playing great, back from knee surgery. Philly has a decent offense, but the defense is terrible giving up 111 ppg. Play the Celtics!
JR TIPS
Suns at Heat
The Phoenix Suns and Miami Heat have very different styles but they both have undefeated records in which one team won't have after tonight. The Suns rely on a high-scoring offense while the Heat have been using defense to shut down the opposition. Miami will try to contain the Suns after holding its last two opponents below 90 points, including a 95-87 home win over Chicago in their last game on Sunday.
Miami has held its first three opponents to 38.6 percent shooting, including 21.6 from 3-point range and have outrebounded all of their opponents. Dwyane Wade scored 25 points Sunday as the Miami Heat limited the Bulls to 17 points in the fourth quarter although Jermaine O'Neal broke his nose late in that quarter but he won't miss any playing time. Miami will need to score more than the 95.5 points like they have averaged in the last two games as Phoenix will be looking to force Miami to play an up-tempo game. The Suns have given up 100 points in each of their first three games, but they are averaging 117.3 of their own and have reached 120 in their last two games due to their success beyond the arc where the Suns are shooting 52.4 percent. Steve Nash had another solid effort with 25 points and 14 assists while Jason Richardson finished with 23 points. The Suns are looking for their first 4-0 start since 2004-05 although the Heat swept the Suna last season which included a 135-129 victory in Miami led by 35 points from Wade, who is averaging 36.3 in his last three games against Phoenix. Somethings gotta give with these two teams and most of the time it is the always as defense is always steady. The problem for the suns is that the Heat have the best player on the court along with good role players that can score points in an uptempo game as well as play lock down defense when they need too. Defense and home court advantage wins out here.
TAKE MIAMI -3.5
Chris Jordan
Boston -7 at PHILADELPHIA
Been an impressive start to the season for the Celtics, who are 4-0 and coming off a three-game homestand in which they annihilated the Bobcats, Bulls and Hornets by an average of almost 25 points.
And that, of course, came after the statement-making, season-opening thumping of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
So even though Philly's Lou Williams has had an impressive start for the 2-1 Sixers, I have to side with the healthy C's who boast the Big Three of Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, not to mention the crafty Rajon Rondo.
This team has looked good offensively, averaging 100.5 points per game, while the defense has stymied the team's first four opponents to 90 or fewer points and a combined 39.1 percent shooting from the field.
The Celtics roll into this on series runs of 14-3 ATS when playing in Philly and 13-4 overall, while the road team has covered 18 of the last 26 meetings.
Lay the road chalk with Boston.
Dominic Fazzini
Boston -6 at PHILADELPHIA
Nailed my complimentary selection Monday taking the underdog Falcons to cover the spread at New Orleans. Now I'm going to turn to the NBA to keep things rolling.
The Celtics' defense has been first-class thus far this season, holding opponents to 81.3 points per game and 39 percent shooting. And the 76ers have been one of the league's worst defensive teams, giving up 111 points per game.
Boston's big three of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen has been averaging 52.9 points per game, and Rajon Rondo is a rising star who is averaging 11.8 assists per game.
New Sixers point guard Lou Williams is having a strong start, averaging 20.3 points per game, but he isn't really a player who can create offense for his teammates. And that's going to hurt Philly tonight against such a good defensive team.
The Celtics are 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 games in Philadelphia. They swept four games against the Sixers last season, going 3-1 ATS, and have won seven of the teams' last eight meetings, going 6-2 ATS. Take Boston to cover the points tonight as a favorite in Philly.
3♦ BOSTON
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Lakers at OKLAHOMA CITY +7
Dished out a World Series FREE winner on Monday night as the Phillies jumped up early and got the win in Game 5 to send this series back to the Bronx. Tonight I'm coming with an NBA comp selection on the Thunder as they are catching points at home against the Lakers in Oklahoma City.
The Lakers have come out this season somewhat lethargic after winning the NBA title last year and have yet to cash a ticket. Tonight they face a good young, hungry team in Oklahoma City and I can see this being a game that comes down to the final minute and not being more than a five-point win for the Lakers, if they win it at all.
Grab the points with Oklahoma City as this team has come out and gone 2-1 to start the year with the loss coming Sunday in an 83-74 loss as three-point ‘dogs at home to the Blazers. The Thunder have a fantastic trio in Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook that can play with any trio in the league. It’s the inside game that needs work for the Thunder.
The Lakers opened with three straight home games and on Sunday they were crushing the Hawks but let them get close in the fourth quarter and won 118-110 but came up just short as an 8.5-point favorite.
Los Angeles went 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) against the Thunder last season and they’ve won nine straight against this franchise. But the Lakers are on ATS slides of 0-4 as a favorite, 5-11 after a straight-up win and 1-4 as a road chalk of 5 to 10 points.
Oklahoma City is on ATS runs of 16-7 after a non-cover, 13-4 on Tuesdays and 9-4 as a home ‘dog of 5 and 10 ½-points.
I like this trio they’ve got in Oklahoma City and think they will be hungry to play this one and show something against the defending champs. Grab the points and play the Thunder.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Randall the Handle
Boston +1.61 over DETROIT
The Red Wings return home from a very difficult road trip through Phoenix, Colorado, and then the dreaded three games in five nights in Western Canada. They are playing better and deserved better than a 2-3 record on said trip but they’re still getting beat too often and they still have issues in net with Chris Osgood and/or Jimmy Howard. Osgood is 37th out of 42 goaltenders in save percentage this season while Howard ranks 40th. Incredibly enough in 13 games this season the B’s have not won two straight nor have they lost two straight. They’re coming off a 1-0 loss against the Rangers but played another strong defensive game after a 2-0 shutout over Edmonton. The Bruins have allowed just three goals against in its last three games and although they have not been scoring a whole lot, they’re not facing Martin Brodeur or Henrik Lundqvist here. So, with a huge edge in net, a sweet tag and the Red Wings returning home from a five-game trip, the Bruins offer up some very nice value indeed. Play: Boston +1.61 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +1.31 over TORONTO
The Maple Leafs are another team returning home from a long, tough trip that took them through three time zones and ended with games against Buffalo and in Montreal. What’s also worth noting is that the Leafs tied it up in the last minute in the final two games of the trip and went to OT in the final three games of the trip. They played their hearts out every shift of every game but playing from behind and going into OT three straight games takes its toll on a team as well. Now the Leafs will have to return to the pressure of playing at home, where they have yet to win. They’ll be even more pressure on the team, as Phil Kessel makes his Toronto debut tonight. Jonas Gustavsson likely gets the start but he’s not much better than Toskala and in my opinion he’s worse. He just doesn’t look steady or right in the nets. Perhaps the worst break for the Leafs is that the Lightning played an absolutely embarrassing game last night in Philly. They pulled a complete no-show and never stood a chance from the opening face-off. There is no chance of Tampa coming out flat again tonight. The Lightning are winless on the road and dating back to last year have dropped 11 straight on the road. This is such a talented team and they need a road win in the worst way and this is the perfect opportunity to get it. Play: Tampa Bay +1.31 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta +1.40 over MONTREAL
Despite the loss of Ilya Kovalchuk, the Thrashers are still a dangerous team. But what’s most appealing about this game is taking back +1.40 against a Canadiens team that is not worthy of this billing. The Hans have two wins against the Leafs and were outplayed in both. They deserved two losses and not two wins. Prior to Saturday’s game, the Habs were crushed in Pittsburgh 6-1 and they were outshot 36-22 in a 3-2 loss to the Blackhawks. With all due respect to the Hurricanes, the Habs just might be least talented team in the league and offer up nothing as the chalk. Montreal’s 7-7-0 record is misleading and you can count on them to be well below .500 when the season ends. The Thrashers have played one of the more difficult schedules in the league. Prior to beating the Sens on Saturday, they played twice against the Caps and once against the Sharkies. They’ve also played Buffalo and New Jersey and those five games make up half of its 10 games this year. They average more goals than the Habs, they average less against, they’re penalty killing and power-play are both more efficient and they also have an edge in net with Ondrej Pavelec against Carey Price. Incidentally, Montreal is 2-5 when Price starts and have lost five straight with Price in net. Play: Atlanta +1.40 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Rangers –1.05 over VANCOUVER
The Canucks are still playing without some key healthy bodies and despite its two wins in its last three they have not looked good at all. In the Canucks 2-1 win over the Kings last Thursday they mustered just 15 shots on net. They followed that up with a 7-2 loss at Anaheim and in its 3-0 win over Colorado they had 20 shots on net. Prior to that trifecta, against Detroit they were outshot 42-26 and the 5-4 loss is a flattering score. Andrew Raycroft is once again in net and he’s played great but the Canucks are not going to keep winning games when they’re not creating scoring chances. Besides, they’ll face the leagues best goaltender tonight and that can’t work in their favor. The Rangers are in a bit of a funk but they’re healthy and they’re coming off a solid 1-0 win over the Bruins. Marion Gaborik, Chris Higgins and Sean Avery were all back in the line-up Sunday and it’s no coincidence that the Rangers lost both games Gaborik sat out and the game Avery and Higgins missed. The Rangers are simply the better team and very difficult to beat when the other team can’t muster up much offense. Play: NY Rangers –1.05 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Pittsburgh +1.14 over ANAHEIM
The Penguins are a dog because why? Yeah, Malkin and Gonchar are out but so what. The Penguins are deep, they’re 6-0 on the road and they appear to be hungrier this year than last. The Pens lost its last game 2-1 to Minnesota but don’t be fooled by the score. They outshot the Wild 32-15 and were not beat by the team; they were beat by the goaltender. The Penguins are 11-3 overall and own the NHL’s best record. Meanwhile, the Ducks have one win in its last six games. In a recent stretch of four games against St. Louis, Dallas, Columbus and Toronto they allowed, 5, 4, 6 and 6 goals against, respectively. The Ducks may get right-sided and one has to believe they’ll be a little more jacked up playing the champs but hasn’t everyone? The bottom line is that the Pens keep winning, the Ducks keep losing and the tag is just the icing on the cake. Play: Pittsburgh +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
LT Profits
Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
The Boston Celtics are playing like a team on a mission thus far while going 4-0, but the Philadelphia 76ers are a dangerous team at home and this is a lot of points for them to be receiving at Wachovia Center.
The 76ers have won two straight since losing at Orlando on opening night, winning their only home game by 13 points over the Milwaukee Bucks and then beating the New York Knicks by 14 in overtime at Madison Square Garden.
The Philadelphia starters can compete with any team in the East right now, as Elton Brand is healthy unlike last year and new young point guard Lou Williams has done an excellent job thus far. To give you an idea how talented the Sixers are right now, they had four starters in double-digits vs. the Knicks and both of their starting guards (Williams and Andre Iguodala) has double-doubles in points and rebounds. They make for a tough matchup for any team in the league/
Now the Celtics are eying a return trip to the NBA Fianls after getting knocked out by the Orlando Magic without Kevin Garnett in the playoffs last year, and they did sweep the season series from the 76ers 4-0. However, the two wins here in Philadelphia were by just one (100-99) and two (100-98) points respectively/
We see no reason why a new and improved Sixers team cannot hang with Boston again here, and an outright upset would not be too shocking.
Pick: 76ers +7
Tom Freese
Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
Denver is 19-7 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and they are 15-5 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. The Nuggets are 11-4-1 ATS their last 16 games when playing with one day of rest and they are 7-1 ATS their last 8 road games. Indiana is 2-7 ATS their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games as home underdogs. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60% and they are 2-8 ATS their last 10 games vs. the Nuggets. PLAY ON DENVER -
EZWINNERS
Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -5.5
The Mavericks were 2-0 hosting the Jazz last season and Dallas is playing very well to start the 2009/2010 season. After losing their home opener to Washington, the Mavs sweep the LA teams in back to back nights. Utah is not playing very well to start this season. The Jazz are coming off of a home loss to the Rockets last night and are only 1-2 to start the season. Their defense, or lack of, has been a big problem. In their three games, Jazz opponents have scored 25 points or more in ten out of twelve quarters. I expect the Mavs to shoot well in this game too, especially with Utah in the second game of a back to back. The home team has won the last eight meetings between these two teams and is 7-1 against the spread in those games. Lay the points.
Stephen Nover
Phoenix at MIAMI
One the heels of an overtime winner on the Kings, we take the Under in this Interconference clash.
One of the hardest lines for the oddsmaker to make is an NBA total where there are contrasting styles. You won't have a bigger example of this than the Suns-Heat matchup.
The Suns are No. 1 offensively averaging 117.3 points. The Heat rank first in defensive field goal percentage at 38.6 percent and are tops in 3-point defensive field goal percentage holding foes to 21.6 percent from beyond the arc. Miami is yielding 87.7 points per game, the fifth-lowest in the NBA.
The situation, spot and handicap favor defense over offense in this matchup.
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has always stressed defense since taking over in Miami two years ago. It's not a fluke the Heat are playing so well on defense.
Jermaine O'Neal suffered a broken nose in Miami's last game. He'll probably play but may be limited. That could open up more playing time for reserve big man Joel Anthony. O'Neal is a scorer. Anthony is a shot-blocker ranking sixth in the category despite playing just 18 minutes per game.
The Suns are running again under Alvin Gentry. Steve Nash still is highly effective. However, Amare Stoudamire isn't 100 percent yet and Leandro Barbosa has a sore wrist.
The Suns are 3-0, but their victims have been the Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves. These teams have a combined record of 2-9 with none expected to make the playoffs. None of the three rank among the top 13 teams in scoring defense either.
So the Suns are stepping up in class for the first time. This is the beginning of a five-game, seven-day road journey for the Suns. They will travel nearly 7,000 miles during this trip.
If the Heat were to get a big lead, Gentry very well could save his team's legs by joining the Heat in slowing the ball down while going more to his bench.
3♦ UNDER
Sports Gambling Hotline
Boston -7 at PHILADELPHIA
Not really much to think about in this game, as it looks like Boston is the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, as the C's are out of the gate at 4-0 straight up, and 3-1 against the spread.
Philadelphia has won 2 in a row, but beating the Bucks and the Knicks is not the same as beating Boston.
Series numbers show the Celts having won 4 in a row, and 7 of the last 8 straight up.
Boston is also 12-4-1 against the spread the last 17 series meetings with the 76ers.
Against the spread, the road team is 17-8-1 the last 26 meetings, and Boston has been a strong road performer of late, going 9-3-1 against the spread their last 13 on the highway.
The choice tonight is an easy one for us, play on Boston.
4♦ BOSTON