Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, November 4

DAVE COKIN

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS AT MINNESOTA WILD
PLAY: MINNESOTA WILD -120

For those who don’t follow the NHL regularly, I want to try and put the home ice advantage owned by the Minnesota Wild into perspective. Think Seattle Seahawks. I mean to tell you, now that the Wild are showing some signs of legitimate ascension in the NHL, their building is turning into an insane asylum on tilt. The crowds are arriving early and in huge numbers, and by the time the puck gets dropped, they are in serious full throttle.

I’m not guessing when I offer the opinion that a full house on Tuesday night is going to be beyond geared up for what is the biggest Wild home game so far this year, and perhaps in several years. The powerful Penguins are coming to town for their only visit this campaign, and off what I’m reading, it’s gonna be crazy there tonight.

That’s obviously good for the Wild, but I also think we’re going to get a revved up Pittsburgh side here as well. The Penguins are sizzling, with four straight wins including three shutouts, and a massive 19-3 edge in those four victories.

Minnesota has been outstanding thus far. The only aspect of the Wild’s game that hasn’t been sharp is their power play. Beyond that, they’ve been tremendous and they’re proving to be a dominant force at home with a spotless 5-0 slate.

I’m looking at the Wild tonight. While history isn’t a big key for me, it’s at least worth mentioning that this has not been an enjoyable trip for the Penguins. They’ve struggled at this site and for whatever reason, Pens goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has been terrible against this opponent. The past doesn’t predict the future, so that’s little more than a notation for me.

What’s more important for me is how big this game is for Minnesota and how strong they’ve been at home. The Wild have outscored the opposition by a whopping 21-6 count this far and they’re playing with extreme confidence here.

There’s always a downside, which is why anyone who tosses that stupid “lock” term around needs to just shut up. The Penguins special teams have been ridiculously effective, both on the power play and when shorthanded. With the Wild power play a bit feeble so far, and that Pittsburgh man advantage scenario scary good right now, I want to see 5-on-5 hockey as much as I can this evening. If this turns into a whistle-fest, that’s probably not a good thing for my side.

The bottom line is that when a game in early November is this big to one side, I believe that’s an edge worth playing on. I also like the number in this game as it’s priced to generate action on the powerhouse Penguins. I’ll hope the oddsmakers are telling us something and that they’re correct. In what should be a great game, mark me down for the Wild as the Tuesday free play.

Mike Lundin

Predators vs. Jets
Play: Under 5

Two of the best teams defensively so far will square up at MTS Centre tonight when the Jets will host the Predators. The home team is coming off two consecutive 1-0 victories with one shutout each for their goalies and are conceding less goals than any other team in the NHL this season. The Predators are ranked fourth in the same category, averaging just above two goals conceded per game. Neither team have been very effective on the power play, with both in the bottom six. The under is 9-2 in the Predators last 11 overall and 6-1 in the Jets last 7 home games. The two teams have a history of playing low scoring games as well, with five of the last six meetings going under.

Will Rogers

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -2½

LeBron James and the Cavs opened the season with an embarrassing home loss to the Knicks. They bounced back just 24 hours later by defeating the Chicago Bulls in overtime by a score of 114-108 in overtime. The Blazers on the other hand have lost back-to-back games and haven't impressed at all early in the season. I am not convinced that the Blazers can hold off this star studded Cleveland team, and I'll take the visitors.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. LeBron - James has averaged almost 30 points per game against the Blazers, and his Cavs teams won 11-of-13 against Portland prior to signing with the Heat.

2. Damian Lillard - He is expected to play despite suffering a strained abdomen. He wasn't sharp in a home loss to Golden State, shooting just 1-of-7 from beyond the arc, and finishing with 11 points on .222 shooting.

3. X-Factor - The Trail Blazers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.

Will Rogers's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors -9

The Thunder started the season without superstar Kevin Durant and now are without Russell Westbrook too. That means 20.5 ppg are now gone with Westbrook. That leaves Perry Jones (19.3 ppg) and Serge Ibaka (16.7 ppg) to carry the load. Toronto is 3rd in the league in points per game and has five players in double figures led by DeMar DeRozan with 23.7 ppg. This is a deep team compared to the Thunder who are getting thinner by the game. Your Free play is to lay the points with Toronto at home.

Jesse Schule

Edmonton Oilers vs. Philadelphia Flyers
Play: Philadelphia Flyers -158

Philly should be all fired up for tonight's home meeting with the Oilers, coming off back to back losses on the road at Tampa and Florida. This figures to be a tough spot for the visitors, who learned yesterday that their leading scorer Taylor Hall will be sidelined with an MCL sprain, and team captain Andrew Ference will serve a three game suspension for an illegal hit.

The Oilers have had troubles on the road at the best of times, with a record of 0-2-1 so far. They come into tonight's game off back to back home losses, and they are 0-for-11 on the power-play over their last three games. Edmonton ranks near the bottom of the league in goals against, surrendering an average of 3.5 per game.

Philly took both meetings against Edmonton last season, and they should get a boost with Vinny Lecavalier playing just his second game back after missing seven games due to injury. He scored the only goal in the loss at Florida, and he's netted six goals and four assists in his last eight games versus the Oilers.

This is a perfect opponent for a Flyers team looking to end a slump.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Ari Atari

Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Phoenix Suns -6

The Lakers keep losing as they've already set a record for their worst start in the history of their franchise in LA.

Unfortunately the streak will continue tonight with the Suns back in the picture. LA traveled to Phoenix on Wednesday and were smacked in the face with a 119-99 loss. This is the dawn of a new era in basketball in the West. The Lakers will have to take a back seat, but try telling Kobe that.

A 127-104 loss on Saturday is telling of a franchise that simply doesn't have the defensive presence to contain explosive offenses. Jeremy Lin is a high profile player but his numbers are pedestrian at best so far in a Laker uniform. 34.5 percent shooting and coming off an 0 for 6 night with 5 turnovers in their last game leaves much to be desired.

LA is giving up an average of 118 point per game and losing by an average of 17 points.

The first back to back scenario for the Suns proved to be a miserable failure when they visited Utah and got spanked by a score of 118-91 on Saturday. After 2 days rest, I'm seeing a solid bounceback situation against a team they've matched up favorably with already this season.

It's early going but we get to make a FREE PLAY on a matchup that is already on its second leg. The rematch between Phoenix and LA will prove to be no different with a huge mismatch at the point guard position, rebounding and turnover ratio.

The line sits at -6 for Phoenix. I suggest jumping on this one early.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Clemson / Wake Forest Under 43: This Clemson offense is a shell of what it used to be and will not put up the 56 or 42 points that they did the last 2 years on the Deacons. With Deshaun Watson out with a finger injury, the offense has been turn over to Cole Stoudt, who has just not moved this offense at all, as Clemson has averaged just 18.7 ppg in their last 3 games, all with him running the show. Really the coaching staff has asked him to do just enough to win games, knowing that they have a defense that ranks 2nd in the nation in yards allowed, while allowing just 18.7 ppg overall, including just 9 ppg in their last 4 games. What a coincidence as the Demon Deacons have averaged just 9 ppg in their last 3 games. Overall this is one of the worst offenses in the nation, but they have played solid defense, allowing just 24.6 ppg, including just 20.3 ppg at home. This should be a boring game from start to finish as neither offense is very good, while both defenses are solid. KEY TRENDS: The Under is 23-5 in the Demon Deacons last 28 games off an ATS loss and the Under is 10-1 in the Tigers last 11 games on Fieldturf, while the Under is also 5-1 the last 6 in the series.

BEST OF THE REST

Akron/ Bowling Green Under 58: The Zips are not a strong offensive offensive team, as they average just 22.9 ppg, while giving up just 20.3 ppg overall, including just 18.3 ppg at home. Bowling Green has been solid on offense and their defense has been very bad, but at home Akron will not let this get into a shootout. They will play ball control, which will eat plenty of Clock and keep the Bowling Green Offense on the sidelines. Akron is not a take many chances type of team, especially knowing that they have a very good defense behind them. The Under is 21-6 in Akron's last 27 games overall and 5-1 in their last 6 games in November, while the Under is 11-2 ATS in the Falc ons last 13 games following an ATS loss and 15-6 in their last 21 MAC games. The Last two years this sereis has seen just 34 and 45 points scored and this one should not top 52 here.

Jeff Clement

Phoenix vs. Los Angeles
Play: Under 214

The Under is 4-0 last 4 Lakers games after allowing 125 points in their previous game and the Under is 8-1-1 last 10 Suns games against teams with a winning % below .400. The Under is 4-0 last 4 Suns games following a SU loss. Phoenix is averaging 101.3 points per game and the Lakers are struggling to find their offense as they average 101.0 points per game.

am Martin

Bowling Green at Akron
Prediction: Akron

Zips are coming off back-to-back outright losses as favorites against Ohio U and Ball State, but are still a medium-sized five-point favorite (as of this writing) at home against a Bowling Green team that has a better record. So why are we backing Akron at home? Zips will likely get quarterback Kyle Pohl back tonight, and they really missed him in those losses against the Bobcats and Cardinals the last two weeks.

We're not convinced Akron wouldn't have won those two games had Pohl taken the field, as the Zips finished with 268 and 200 yards passing in those games, but more importantly they committing a combined 8 turnovers. Akron has just seven turnovers combined in their previous six games (with Pohl) and GB hasn't been all that great away from home including a horrible blowout loss as a touchdown favorite at Western Kentucky. Falcons giving up 46 ppg on the road this year and a returning Pohl lead the Zips to a big win!

Nelly

Los Angeles Lakers + over Phoenix Suns

The Lakers are winless on the season but in fairness the team has played four high quality teams. Only one of the games was close throughout with the a seven-point loss to the city rival Clippers but this will be a revenge spot after a 20 point loss in Phoenix last Wednesday. Kobe Bryant had 31 in that game but the Suns pulled away in the second half while shooting 55 percent for the game including making 16 3-point shots. Those numbers will be tough to repeat and it was a completely uneven situation. It was the opening game of the season for the Suns at home against a marquee opponent while the Lakers had to travel to Phoenix following up a late night game in Houston the previous night, a highly anticipated game to open the season on national TV. Now 0-4 this is a desperation spot for the Lakers and the team is scoring 101 points per game as offense has not been the problem. Rebounding has been tough with the early injury to Julius Randle and with 118 points per game allowed the Lakers have work to do defensively under Byron Scott. Phoenix is not much better defensively, allowing 102 points per game this season and despite a great backcourt the Suns have had just 18 assists per game while also struggling with rebounds. After beating the Lakers and Spurs at home to start the season Phoenix was blown out Saturday in Salt Lake City and the Suns had inconsistent road results last season.

LT Profits

Washington vs New York
Pick: Washington +1.5

Even though this game is at Madison Square Garden, the wrong team may be favored when the Washington Wizards visit the New York Knicks. Yes the Knicks have won two straight to go to 2-1, but they are averaging a mere 90.3 points and have become relatively easy to defend while trying to grasp the triangle offense with Carmelo Anthony having no scoring support. Yes their win in Cleveland was nice, but the Cavaliers may have just taken them lightly in LeBron James’ first game back, and then the Knicks beat an equally inept offense in the Hornets here at home. The Wizards have no such struggles averaging 102.7 points and remember that this was one of the better road teams in the NBA last season at 22-19 straight up including winning both trips to New York. The Wizards are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win.

Dave Price

Orlando Magic +13

The Bulls are being overvalued at home, which has so often been the case in recent years. Chicago is just 17-31 ATS in first half of the season home games under Thibodeau and 26-45 ATS as a home favorite since the start of the 2012-13 season. The Bulls failed to defeat Orlando by more than 13 points in any of last season's three meetings, and two of those were decided by three points or less. The underdog is a 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings, and the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five in Chicago. Take the points.

Jimmy Boyd

Miami Heat -1

The Heat are showing great value here as a mere 1-point home favorite against the Rockets. Both teams are undefeated on the season, but there's a big scheduling advantage for Miami. Houston played last night in Philadelphia and will now be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road trip. It's also the Rockets 4th road game and 5th overall since they opened the season last Tuesday. Miami on the other hand will be playing just their 4th game of the season and have only had to leave home once to take on the 76ers.

After a 4-0 start, this is a prime spot for the Rockets to suffer a letdown. Miami on the other hand figures to continue to play with a chip on their shoulder, as they look to prove that they are still a contender without LeBron James.

Houston is just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games dating back to last season against teams with a winning home record, while the Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 at home overall.

Steve Janus

Oklahoma City Thunder +11½

I know the Thunder are dealing with a number of injuries right now and will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this line has simply been inflated too much. Oklahoma City is more than capable of keeping this within double-digits. The Thunder still have some quality players healthy and just recently got back a big piece in guard Reggie Jackson.

The other key here is that Toronto isn't going to be highly motivated to beat OKC without Durant and Westbrook, especially with a big division game on deck at Boston tomorrow night. It's also worth noting that the Raptors have a history of playing down to their competition at home. Toronto is 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record.