Sammy P
Florida at Boston
Play: Under 5
When you think of the Boston Bruins you think of hard-nosed physical hockey with a lot of depth. Despite the recent injuries they've had, they still are playing with that tenacity that has made them successful. They've had success so far this season against the weaker opponents in the NHL and we should see more of the same tonight against a Florida Panthers team that struggles to score goals. Florida has played three straight 2-1 games, while managing to win two of the three. The Panthers have also allowed an NHL-low 17 regulation goals-against which has resulted in 7 of their 9 games going under the total. Though not as strong, the Bruins also trend under the total of 4-7 O/U. Both teams dealing with offensive injuries which should assist in this game going under the current posted total of 5.
Wunderdog
St. Louis @ New Jersey
Pick: New Jersey -109
The New Jersey Devils failed to make the playoffs last season, and all they had to do is go back to their first seven games of the season and circle their inept start at 0-7. They entered this season well aware of their failure to get out of the gate strong this season, and have met the challenge as they are 6-3-2 through 11 games. The Devils have won the first two games of this homestand, and have some momentum going as they take on the St. Louis Blues. St. Louis is having some success of their own as winners of five straight, but are coming here off a tough game that went to overtime last night vs. the Rangers. They also had a shootout game prior to that, so this could be a tired team taking the ice tonight. Indeed, we find the Blues now 0-5 in their last five when playing four games in six nights. The Devils have met the challenge of taking on an elite team as they are 4-0 in their last four vs. a team over .600. Play on New Jersey.
Ken Thomson
Akron -6
QB Kyle Pohl should be ready to run the show tonight for the Zips. There is 80% chance of rain throughout the game. Akron's defense is solid on their home turf. Knapke and Falcon offense could see a bunch of negative offensive plays tonight as I expect the Zips to control the trenches. Terry Bowden's team was good enough to win at Pitt....if they bring that effort tonight they should win by double digits by forcing Bowling Green into turnovers!!
SPORTS WAGERS
Calgary -½ +210 over WASHINGTON
Regulation only. There is no defense for poor goaltending. The Capitals are allowing the second fewest shots on net per game under Barry Trotz’s new system but Braden Holtby and Justin Peters are seeing coins instead of pucks. Washington has allowed four goals or more in four straight. Over that span they have allowed 20 goals against. When they faced Edmonton earlier in the year, they allowed 20 shots on net and lost 3-2. When they faced Detroit recently, the Caps allowed 22 shots on net and lost 4-2. When they lost to San Jose, they allowed 23 shots on net and lost 6-5. In fact, the Caps have lost two games this year by identical 6-5 scores. In Trotz’s system you need solid goaltending. The system is designed to win games 2-1 and 3-2 and without consistently good goaltending, the Caps are hugely vulnerable, just like the Predators were last year when Pekka Rinne went down. What happens after a few losses is that the players begin doubting the strategy, which leads to even worse results because losing and scoring goals is a lot more fun than losing and scoring few.
The Flames are not only great to watch, they’re great to bet on because they give 200% on every shift. We’ll keep playing them because they remain undervalued. Calgary just went into Montreal and made the Canadiens look like a junior team for the second time in a week. In two games against the Habs, Calgary outshot them 74-39 and held a huge edge in time of possession in the offensive end. Calgary has now picked up points in eight of its past 10 games. You will not find a better top-4 defense group in the league than Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, Kris Russell and Denis Wideman. The Flames have scored 10 goals over their past two games against Montreal and Nashville. They recently hung a five on Carolina. They are strong up the middle and they’re getting outstanding goaltending from Jonas Hiller and/or Karri Ramo. The Flames are not only winning but they’re playing with extreme confidence and they expect to win. None of that can be said about the Caps.
Chicago -½ +133 over MONTREAL
Regulation only. We’ve mentioned numerous times that Montreal’s misleading record is a result of good fortune and that a correction was forthcoming. That correction is not done yet. Montreal is coming off a 6-3 loss to Calgary to drop its record to 8-3-1. The Canadiens have scored two goals or fewer in five of their past six games and that includes being shut out by the Oilers. Hockey analytics says this is a below .500 team. The Habs rank 24 out of 30 in shots on net per game, 22 out of 30 in shots allowed and 26th out of 30 in time of possession in the offensive end. In 5 on 5 play, Montreal has been outscored 25-22. With eight wins in 12 games, the Canadiens are the most overvalued team in the NHL and it might not be close.
Montreal has a better record than Chicago. That’s pretty sick and it shows us once again how good and bad fortune plays a role in the outcome of games. The good thing about luck is that it evens out over time and it provides us with some opportunities to back teams that aren’t getting enough credit or fade teams that are getting too much credit. Both apply here. Chicago has lost two in a row and five of seven. The ONLY reason they have lost so many games is because they’ve run into a string of hot goaltenders one night after the next and at the other end the puck just isn’t going in for them. Chicago outshot the Maple Leafs 47-27 and in the third period they looked like they had a 20-minute power-play but nothing went in. The Blackhawks have lost two 1-0 games recently and in the one of them, they outshot Anaheim 38-25. In Chicago’s last four losses it has scored four times and 163 shots and it’s not because they lack snipers. Chicago is an absolute powerhouse that is loaded with snipers, defense, great players and hard workers. It’s only a matter of time before they go on a major run and while this is just one game in which anything can happen, the Blackhawks are so superior here that only bad luck will prevent them from winning.
Vancouver -½ +170 over COLORADO
Regulation only. Analytics hated the Avalanche last season and it appears as though analytics was right. This season, Colorado has three wins in regulation in 13 games. When they defeated the Islanders last Thursday, they were outshot 40-23. Colorado’s shot differential per game is in the bottom three in the league. In fact, all the Corsi and Fenwick numbers suggest that Colorado is only slightly better than Buffalo. The Avalanche are a complete mess in their own end and that’s big trouble against strong fore-checking teams like Vancouver. We could take back a small tag on the Canucks but prefer the price when eliminating the shootout and will continue to play games this way.
Vancouver is coming off a loss to Nashville in a difficult scheduling spot. On October 24, Vancouver came in here at the Pepsi Center and got destroyed 7-3 but that was the final game of a three-game trip for the Canucks after playing in Minnesota and Dallas so we’ll give them a mulligan for that. The Canucks figure to be much sharper here. Vancouver does not give the opposition much room to operate. As soon as the puck enters their own end, the Canucks are aggressive in getting it back out. The rank 7th and 13th respectively in shots for and against per game. Take away that one aforementioned game in Colorado in which they allowed 46 shots on net and their ranking goes up to ninth. The Canucks cycle well, they defend very well and they play a very aggressive style in both ends that cause a bad defense to make a lot of mistakes and poor decisions. The Canucks are quietly 8-4 and their style is one the Avs did not see last time because Vancouver was running on fumes. That won’t be the case here.
Toronto -½ +150 over ARIZONA
Regulation only. The Maple Leafs have won three in a row but it’s the same old story for this team. They get badly outshot against Chicago, they get outshot by a small margin against a depleted Blue Jackets team and they beat the Sabres. Against Chicago, James Reimer stood on his head in the third frame by stopping 26 shots and the Leafs scored on one of their seven shots. It’s seriously hard to even comprehend how an NHL team allows 26 shots on net in one period. The Leafs’ goaltending combined with their ability to score goals gives them a legit chance. The Maple Leafs are also in a favorable spot here.
Phoenix returns home from a four-game trip after two games in the state of Florida followed by games at Carolina and Washington. They were the first team to lose to the Hurricanes this season and they allowed 35 shots on net or more in three of those four road games. The Coyotes have also played six of their past seven on the road since October 21 so there’s a good chance of them being flat to start. Now we get to the best reason of all to play the Maple Leafs tonight – goaltending. Mike Smith is a broken down stiff. When he makes a save, it’s almost always because his positioning is decent and the puck hits him. Give a sharp shooter a good look and Smith virtually has no chance. His rebound control is also brutal. Give the Maple Leafs a huge edge in goal here if James Reimer starts and a sick edge in net if Jonathan Bernier starts. Goaltending is the #1 factor in the outcome of a large percentage of games and aside from the favorable spot we mentioned earlier, that edge in net instantly makes the Maple Leafs playable here. It sure won’t hurt that there may be more Maple Leafs fans in the stands than Coyotes supporters.
Pass NCAAF
Rob Vinciletti
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Phoenix Suns -6.5
The Suns fit a solid road warrior system that plays on road favorites in the NBA that are off a road favored loss in their last game and were beaten by over 21 points on the points spread if the total is 200 or higher and their opponent is coming off a road game. The Suns were blown out in Utah by 27 in their last game and should rebound nicely tonight against a Lakers team that is 0-4 and struggling to stay in games. The Lakers have dropped 7 of 10 to the spread as a home dog from 6.5 to 9. The Suns are 9-0 ats as a road favorite off a road game. Look for the Suns to get the win and cover tonight.
Larry Ness
Chicago at Montreal
Pick: Under
Expect the Chicago Blackhawks and the Montreal Canadians to go under the total tonight as this matchup features two teams that are both struggling to score goals. Chicago has lost five of its last seven games after a 1-0 shutout loss at home to Winnipeg. That was the second time over the last four games that the Blackhawks were shutout and they have scored more than two goals only once over their last seven contests. Much of the problem can be directed at a flailing power play unit that has converted only FOUR of its last 24 opportunities. Chicago is keeping themselves in games with a power play kill group that has thwarted 19 of its last 20 opponents’ power play opportunities.
Overall, the Blackhawks are allowing only 1.9 goals-per-game and they will likely have Corey Crawford back again in net tonight after he missed a few games to injury earlier in the season. Chicago has played seven of its last eight games under the number as the team travels to face a Montreal squad that is 8-3-1 so far this season. However, after a 6-2 loss to Calgary on Sunday, the Canadians have managed only five goals over their last four games. Like with the Blackhawks, Montreal is not getting much from its power play, which has scored in just THREE times in its 33 opportunities this season. The Canadians will lean heavily on goalie Carey Price tonight whose 1.49 goals-against-average in his four starts against Chicago is his best mark against any NHL team in his career.
Jimmy Adams
Houston Rockets vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat -1
Not many expected much out of the Miami Heat entering the season. They're currently 3-0 while averaging 109.3 points per game, which ranks 2nd in the league. Chris Bosh is now the star for the Heat, and he's delivering, putting up the kind of numbers that we saw of him when he was back in Toronto. Dwyane Wade averages 26.9 points against the Rockets, which is one of his highest point totals against any team.
Meanwhile, the Rockets are off to a nice 4-0 start themselves. Most of those wins have come against very inferior opponents, so this should be a big challenge and step up in class. The spot sets up well for us here because the Rockets are playing their 2nd road game in a back to back situation. -1 seems like a nice price for us to take advantage of.
Doug Upstone
Washington Wizards vs. New York Knicks
Play: Washington Wizards -1
Play Against November home underdogs like New York off a close home win by three points or less. Teams in the first month of the season have been miserable failures in this role because they not been able to parlay a tight victory into a spread winner the next time out. How bad have they been, 5-30 ATS the last 18 years.
Steve Rosen
St Louis Blues vs. New Jersey Devils
Play: New Jersey Devils -109
The New Jersey Devils will complete a perfect three-game homestand when the St. Louis Blues pay a visit to the Prudential Center on Tuesday. The contest will serve as the opener of a home-and-home series with St. Louis, which hosts New Jersey on Thursday. Cory Schneider is a much better goalie than Jake Allen. New Jersey's special teams reside at both ends of the spectrum as its power play has clicked at an impressive 26.3-percent rate while its penalty kill sits at a disastrous 68.8-percent efficiency. St. Louis has yielded nine power-play goals in its last eight contests. This is what is going to give the Devils a huge advantage as they will capitalize on the power play! Blues are also very tired from last nights overtime victory over the Rangers.
Teddy Covers
Milwaukee +3.5
The Bucks last played on Saturday, in Washington. Milwaukee was nothing short of awful in several aspects of that ballgame. They allowed the Wizards to hit 54% of their shots from the floor. Milwaukee also committed a whopping 27 turnovers. Those type of statistical numbers scream ‘blowout loss’ for a bottom feeder team like the Bucks. And yet they trailed by single digits in the latter stages of the contest before losing by eleven. On the heels of ‘better than expected’ showings in each of their first two games, that, folks, is a ‘buy’ sign.
This is a very different Milwaukee team from last year, a squad that is clearly pointed in the right direction. Point guard Brandon Knight: “I'm going to continue to remind the guys who were here last year what it was like. It's still very early, so we've got to make sure we're taking advantage of every single game. So by the time Game 30 comes around, we're not saying, 'Man, we should have done this, should have done that,' and we've already dropped 25 games."
Knight continued: “For me, the experience last year was a learning one. We played a lot of young players last year, had a lot of injuries. We didn't have a lot of our guys (last season), and that definitely played a big part in it. We never had a set lineup the entire year. We kept shuffling guys in and out and that included preseason and training camp as well. It was just a tough situation."
That particular problem appears to be solved in 2014-15. New head coach Jason Kidd has emphasized continuity, starting the same lineup in each of the first three games. And Kidd has been very comfortable going to his deep bench, with Milwaukee’s bench outscoring their opponents 45-27 and 42-27 over their past two games. That is very bad news for a short-handed team like the Pacers.
Indiana right now is NOTHING like the team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals in each of the last two seasons. Without Lance Stephenson, Paul George, David West, George Hill, CJ Watson and (possibly) Rodney Stuckey tonight, the only win the Pacers have been able to get this year came against the hapless 76ers, in a game that was much tighter than the final score would indicate. They lost outright as home favorites in their last game at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and another SU loss as home chalk tonight would be no surprise to this bettor.
Tony Stoffo
Bowling Green +6.5
Bowling Green at Akron With this game basically going the decide whether which one of these teams will go to the MAC championship game -'m releasing a play on the Falcons and the points here tonight - as all my trend analysis and intangibles is pointing towards a very close game in this spot. Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Zips are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Zips are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Zips are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Bowling Green the play here
Harry Bondi
TOLEDO -13 over Kent State
Just a real bad match-up for the home team Flashes. Toledo is unbeaten in MAC play with its only loss the last five weeks coming against Iowa State. The way to beat the Rockets is through the air, but Kent is ranked near the bottom of nearly every passing stat, including 115th in pass efficiency. And if they can't limit the Toledo offense they will get run out of the stadium since they have topped the 17-point plateau just once all season. Lay the road lumber.
River City Sharps
Wizards Pk
Fools gold in New York as the Knicks have won two games in a row and everyone is rushing for their playoff tickets! This is still a bad basketball team and tonight will play one of the up-and-coming teams in the Eastern Conference. John Wall has been a problem for the Knicks, averaging 25.8 points in the last four meetings with New York. Wall had 31 points and seven assists in a 98-89 win Nov. 23. Great trend play in this game that can't be overlooked...Play against home underdogs in the NBA off a close home win (3 points or less) in their next game in November games. This trend is a stunning 30-5 against the number since 1996. We feel like the Wizards really represent a strong value play in this one.
Andre Gomes
Thunder / Raptors Under 194
Oklahoma City is on a bad physical spot tonight, with a bunch of injured players and without Durant and Westbrook, they naturally lack a scoring punch. The Thunder dished 14 assists against a Nets defense that isn't an elite defense and I guess this says it all. So, the key in here will be to understand the match up between Toronto's offense and Oklahoma City's defense. The game yesterday between Brooklyn and Oklahoma City went over the total posted because Brooklyn had an offensive explosion due to a great outside shooting night. However, that's unlikely to happen tonight because Toronto's offense is struggling at the moment with poor ball movement, with just 13 and 11 assists on their last two games.
The Raptors have been able to score via free throws and offensive rebounds. However, if there is something with quality that Oklahoma City still has, that's their frontcourt with Ibaka, Adams and Perkins. Therefore, I expect the Thunder to have a solid interior defense game, while the Raptors' perimeter game won't be at all as explosive as Brooklyn was last night. I see this game being a low scoring affair and so, I'll take the Under in here.
Vegas Butcher
Washington Wizards -1.5
This one opened -2 NYK, and now has moved a full 3 points. Seems like bettors aren’t impressed with New York’s 2-1 start. They got creamed by the Bulls in the opening game of the season, beat CLE on the road in a very emotional game for the Cavs (LeBron’s 1st game back home), and then struggled with a Charlotte squad that was playing on a b2b after a tough home loss against the Wizards the night before. The Knicks rank 27th in DefEff and 25th in eFG% against, while allowing 75% FG% at the rim, the 4th worst mark in the league. I’d expect a lot of P&R sets for the Wizards in the half-court, to take advantage of the slow-footed Knicks defense
Milwaukee Bucks +4.5
The Pacers continue to play without West, Hill, and Watson, but they could also be without Stuckey tonight. Milwaukee has Sanders and Henson, who can match up with Hibbert, and they also have pretty solid depth. They rank 5th in DefEff and 10th in eFG% allowed, so defensively this team has played well. Their issue are turnovers on the offensive end, as they rank dead-last in TO%. Indiana though doesn’t force many TO’s defensively (27th in Def TO-rate). Milwaukee should have won @ Charlotte (lead by 7.9 points throughout that one) in their first road game of the year and I think they’ll have a good chance tonight as well. As of right now, they’re a better team from my perspective.
Portland Trail Blazers +2.5
The Cavs lost to NYK at home and then needed OT to squeak by Chicago on the road, after Rose and Gibson got hurt. Nobody said ‘it will be easy’ as it’s going to take some time for this team to jell. By comparison, Portland is coming off two straight losses, one being at home. Portland lost to Sacramento which ranks 7th in Def-Eff (#5 in eFG%-a) and Golden State which is #1 in Def-Eff (#2 in eFG%-a). By comparison, Cleveland ranks 22nd in Def-Eff and 26th in eFG%-a. In addition, their offensive eFG% is only 45.4%, which ranks 25th in the league. I know the sample-size is very small (2 games only), but my point here is that this Cavs team is not functioning ‘on all cylinders’ just yet, and it will truly take some time to get all the pieces to fit together. Portland, has had their ‘pieces’ together for a while now. They don’t need to learn to play with one another, they just need to play better. Being at home (31-10 @ 76% win-rate last year) and facing a sub-par defense should help. In addition, let’s look at this number. Against GSW, Portland was a -3.5 home favorite. Now against the Cavs, they are +2.5 home underdogs. Is Cleveland really 6 points better than the Dubs, which some people believe is the best team in the West? If you can answer that question, then you should be able to tell if there is some line-value or not in this game.