Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, November 5

Will Rogers

Edmonton vs. Florida
Pick: Edmonton

The Oilers have lost five straight, and their goaltending situation is in complete shambles. All three of their netminders (Dubnyk, LaBarbera, Bachman) have posted a GAA over 3.00. The good news for the Oilers is, they are in Florida tonight, facing a Panthers team that has also lost five in a row, and goaltending hasn't been a strong point for Florida either.

Here are my keys to the game:

1: Previous History - The Oilers have owned Florida over the years, winning 6-of-7 since 2004. They have won all three of their visits to the Sunshine State during that span.

2: Offense - Edmonton's problem isn't scoring goals, they just need to find a way to keep the puck out of their net. The Panthers on the other hand rank near the bottom of the league in goals scored, as well as power play percentage.

3: X-Factor - Depth at forward is certainly and edge in favor of the Oilers. The Panthers need to rely on Jonathan Huberdeau and Thomas Fleischmann for offense, while the Oilers have no shortage of players capable of bulging the twine.

Art Aronson

Charlotte vs. New York
Pick: New York

The Charlotte Bobcats (1-2) come off a 84-105 loss at the New Orleans Pelicans last Saturday. The Bobcats, playing without Al Jefferson, were led by Ramon Sessions with 22 points and Kemba Walker with 14.The New York Knicks (1-2) come off a 100-109 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday. Carmelo Anthony had 22 points and 17 rebounds for the Knicks while Metta World Peace added 17 points in the loss. The Knicks were booed at many points during this game and will be out looking for blood in this game against a Charlottes Bobcats team that has yet to have a sniff in two road games this season. The Bobcats have to immediately travel home after the game because they host the Raptors on Wednesday. Don’t be surprised if Charlotte gets caught looking forward to a “winnable” home game there a little bit more. The Knicks surprisingly got crushed by the Bobcats 106-95 in Charlotte the last time these two teams met back in April. This has revenge written all over it. Lay points with the home team at MSG.

Bruce Marshall

Miami vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto

We’ll assume that Miami can make last week's losses at Philly and Brooklyn work to its advantage in the near future, as Heat unlikely to get caught with its guard down again in coming weeks. But maybe not, as more than a few NBA observers suggest that LeBron & Co., now a year older, are going to be picking their spots a bit more carefully this season (note D-Wade already nursing sore knee), and many are using that Sixers result as a caution before jumping on board a new Heat bandwagon. Until we see Miami hit stride, might also be reluctant to lay significant points on road with Heat. Toronto attack owns a sharp edge with Rude Gay and DeMar DeRozan, and Raptors’ 48-33 rebound edge in opener vs. Celtics suggests they can perhaps take advantage of ongoing Miami shortcomings off glass. Might be a tight one at Air Canada Centre.

Jim Feist

Bowling Green vs. Miami
Play: Over 46

This is a low total in a MAC game with fair weather because of Miami's offense. But this Bowling Green offense is dynamite averaging 29.6 points, 256 yards passing and 195 yards rushing. The over is 5-1 in the Falcons last 6 Tuesday MAC games. Miami of Ohio has a weak defense allowing 32.5 ppg and the last game Ohio had 536 yards of total offense. Play Bowling Green/Miami of Ohio over the total.

Jack Jones

Jazz/Nets Under 188½

Two teams desperate for a win square off when the Utah Jazz (0-3) visit the Brooklyn Nets (1-2) on Tuesday, November 5. The Jazz are in search of their first victory, while the Nets are looking to bounce back from an ugly 86-107 loss at Orlando. There's no question that both teams will be giving max effort defensively tonight to try and get back on track, which clearly favors the UNDER.

Brooklyn has not been up to par defensively yet, and Kevin Garnett is letting it be known. Garnett is averaging just 7.3 points and shooting 33.3 percent from the field and said he needs to be a more assertive. “I need to be a little more aggressive at times,” he told reporters. “I don’t really think about the offense. Defense is where I’m trying to make sure that we’re cohesive, and we will.”

With the losses of leading scorers Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap in the offseason, the Utah Jazz are very limited with what they can do offensively. Their replacements, Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter, are more known for what they can do on the defensive end of the court rather than their scoring. Also hurting matters is that rookie lottery pick Trey Burke remains out with a broken finger.

The Jazz are scoring 91.7 points per game on 41.2 percent shooting. The Nets haven't been much better, averaging 93.7 points on 41.8% shooting. Utah is limiting opponents to 42.4% from the field, so it has been solid on that end. While Brooklyn hasn't been up to par defensively, giving up 45.4% shooting, I fully expect their best effort of the season on this side of the floor tonight.

The UNDER is 11-3 in Jazz last 14 games playing on two days rest. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last four games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The UNDER is 4-0 in Jazz last four road games. The UNDER is 14-6-1 in the last 21 meetings between the Nets and Jazz. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

Ray Monohan

Ohio vs. Buffalo
Play: Ohio +4

Time for some MACtion. Two games on the card Tuesday night but only one is worth watching and that is Ohio @ Buffalo. Winner gets the leg up in the MAC East. TThe Bulls got rolled by Ohio State and Baylor but have been on a roll ever since with 6 straight victories. Despite all the positive buzz and being at home I am going with Ohio at +3.5 who I especially like because of their good coaching and experienced QB play.

Red Dog Sports

Ohio vs. Buffalo
Play:Buffalo -3½

The Buffalo Bulls play their last home game of the year on Tuesday night. Their next three games are on the road. Frank Solich's Ohio team is good. They did open the year with a bad loss at Louisville but have been decent against MAC teams. They are led by QB Tyler Tettleton, son of former baseball player Mickey Tettleton. These two have played some close games in recent years. I expect a close game on Tuesday but think we see Buffalo win and cover on Tuesday playing their home finale.

Rob Vinciletti

Charlotte Bobcats vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks -9

The Knicks lost at home on Sunday to Minnesota. Tonight they look to rebound here against a Mediocre Charlotte team that has failed to cover 29 of 43 after scoring 85 or less points in their last game. They miss the interior presence of Al Jefferson and that will hurt them here again tonight. The Knicks have covered 6 of 8 at home off a home loss where they lost to the spread by 10 or more points. They also apply to a database system that is 10-1 straight UPp and 9-2 to the spread. We want to play on home favorites of 5 or more with 1 day of rest that lost to the spread as a home favorite of 4 or less points and are taking on an opponent that scored 90 or less as a road dog of 5 or more points. Look for New York to get the win and cover.

Charlie Sports

Denver Nuggets +4

The 2-1 San Antonio spurs of the NBA Western Conference Southwest division will take on the 0-2 Denver Nuggets of the NBA Western Conference Northwest division in 2013 NBA action. San Antonio 1-4 ATS the last 5 meetings between the teams. Denver is 0-4 ATS their last 4 NBA agames at home. Denver gets the home cover.

Ben Burns

Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers

While I respect Houston, the schedule favors Portland in this one. The Rockets got hammered 137-118 at LA last night. While they are 1-0 this season, note that the Rockets are still only 17-28 SU the last 45 times that they played the second of back-to-back games.

Not only will they be playing the second of back-to-back games, they'll also be playing their fourth game in the past five nights, their fifth in the past seven. That's a very grueling slate to start the season.

On the other hand, the Blazers had the past two days off. They beat the Spurs by double-digits last time out, after doing the same thing to the Nuggets (at Denver) in their previous game.

The Rockets are 6-8-1 ATS (6-9 SU) the last 15 times that they were road underdogs of three or fewer points.

The Blazers are playing well and with confidence. They've got their fans excited and they should be fired up for this game. Going into Monday's games, Aldridge and Lillard were the top scoring duo in the league, combining for 50.7 points. Consider the home team.

Matt Fargo

Edmonton Oilers vs. Florida Panthers
Play: Florida Panthers -130

Two of the worst teams in their respective conferences face off tonight as Edmonton travels to Florida to take on the Panthers. The Oilers have lost five straight games and the offense can be blamed the most as they have been shutout over their last two games while scoring just one goal in two others. The defense is not far behind however as Edmonton has allowed four goals or more in four of those games so nothing seems to be going right. In a year that was supposed to see the Oilers improve dramatically, they've stumbled out of the gate to a 3-10-2 beginning. Players are starting to air their grievances through the media and that is never a good thing this early in the season. Things are not much better in Florida as the Panthers are also on a five-game losing streak. They have been much more competitive though as three of those losses were in a shootout and they will be looking to snap a four-game home losing streak. Panthers goalie Tim Thomas didn't practice with the team Monday and has been ruled out which means Scott Clemmensen will be making his second straight start after a solid effort against Washington despite a poor shootout round. The Oilers are 2-8 in their last 10 games following a loss of three or more goals. Florida is in a good spot as we play on favorites against the moneyline after three or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after four or more consecutive losses. This situation is 102-36 (73.9 percent) since 1996. Florida is 4-1 in its last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

Joseph D'Amico

Phoenix Suns vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Play: Phoenix Suns +9

Phoenix started the season with a blowout, 104-91 win over Portland then beat Utah. The Suns then traveled down to OKC and lost to the Thunder by 7, covering the spread. Guard, Eric Bledsoe is on-fire, averaging 22 PPG, 6.3 APG, and 8.7 APG. He is one of six Suns players posting DDs, while the squad possesses seven players each playing 20 or more MPG. Goran Dragic is listed as questionable with an ankle issue but up front, Phoenix has Forward's, Tucker, Plumlee, Frye, and both Morris' to rotate. Overall, the Suns are hitting 79.7% from the line and pulling down 45.3 RPG on offense. Their "D" is in the Top-5 in PPG (92.7), FG% (39.9), and 3-pt % (24.6). New Orleans lost and failed to cover their first two contests against Indiana and Orlando then came back to trounce a now 1-2 Charlotte team on Saturday. They are without Forward, Ryan Anderson. The Pelicans are a dismal 40.9% FGs, ranking 16th on the offensive boards, and 17th in scoring at 95 PPG. Their "D" is allowing 45% FGs and 36.4% beyond the arc. They have just three players averaging DDs with the only good rebounders in Davis and Stiemsma. Letting this team lay DDs to anyone is a mistake. Especially against a red-hot Phoenix team. The Road team is 5-2 ATS the L7 meetings in this series. The Pelicans are 1-6 ATS their L7 games played on 2 days rest, 1-5 ATS their L6 following an ATS win, and 1-4 ATS their L5 games played overall. The Suns are 6-2-1 ATS their L9 games played on 1 days rest, 4-1 ATS their L5 following a SU loss, and 5-2 ATS their L7 games played vs. the NBA South West.

SPORTS WAGERS

Charlotte +9 over NEW YORK

It took Knicks fans only one quarter to start booing Andrea Bargnani and if he couldn’t handle the pressure in Toronto, imagine what he’s feeling today. This is a guy that is playing scared. The problem is that Bargani is going to have to keep shooting (while neglecting the boards) until New York gets J.R. Smith back. Carmelo Anthony (37.7 percent shooting) is off to a cold start, leaving the Knicks in search of offense, something they had an abundance of last year. The Knicks lone win in three starts was by 7 points over the Bucks and now they’re being asked to win by double digits. That’s something we can’t get on board with.

Despite getting whacked in New Orleans, the Bobcats were solid in their other two games in Houston and at home against the Cavaliers. Josh McRoberts, acquired in mid-February of last season has improved the Bobcats’ ball movement simply by swinging the ball to the weak side of the defense far more than others had. Solid guard play from Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson give the Bobcats a chance to be competitive every night and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is also playing well. This is a team that struggles offensively but they have a good bench, they play sound defense and they seem to be responding well for new coach Steve Clifford. The difference between these two teams right now is not 9 points and so we’ll gladly scoop them up and let the chips fall where they may.

Phoenix +9 over NEW ORLEANS

This number is just ridiculous and is based on season projections before a single game was played. The Pelicans are a decent team that will offer up some value in plenty of games this season when getting points but spotting 9 with this club is a huge risk that should not be taken. Anthony Davis is absolutely a true all-star that is averaging 23.7 points, 12.3 rebounds and four blocks. However, New Orleans' three-pronged backcourt is a work in progress, particularly Tyreke Evans, who is shooting only 25.8 percent. New Orleans has just one win in three tries and that victory occurred over Charlotte. They were also whacked in Orlando by 20 points.

In Phoenix, The Eric Bledsoe Show is even better than imagined. Three games into his first opportunity as a full-fledged starter, Bledsoe is averaging 22 points, 8.7 assists and 6.3 rebounds. He's excelling as a No. 1 option and giving opponents fits with his energy on both ends. Bledsoe and Co. are showing that Phoenix -- which was widely predicted to be the worst team in the Western Conference -- has no plans to roll over for a lottery pick. Jeff Hornacek hated losing when he played and he has brought that same passion to the Suns. Even without Goran Dragic, there is too much value here on the Suns to pass up this weight being offered.

Utah +10 over BROOKLYN

Beating the Heat proved that the new-look Nets are capable of taking down the best, but losing to the Cavaliers and Magic showed that there is plenty of work to do. Kevin Garnett hasn't looked very comfortable in black and white, failing to total double-digit points in a game yet, and his new teammates haven't looked at ease playing around him, either. Joe Johnson had just two points in Sunday's loss, his lowest total since February 2011. If that weren't enough, KG made his frustrations known after Jason Kidd's coaching debut. Kidd is not coaching material. He was a quiet point guard that let his play on the court do his talking and probably feels out of place trying to coach guys he played with and against last season. The Nets shouldn’t be spotting 10 points to anyone right now.

Jazz fans need not worry about their team's record because there is plenty of encouraging signs in the development of their youngsters. Utah has been competitive in its first three games, including a close call against the Thunder, and it has received promising play from Alec Burks (team-leading 18.0 points off the bench) and Enes Kanter, who has averaged 16.7 points and 10 rebounds while looking like a beast in the paint. Jazz should easily stay well within this range throughout and could even pull off the upset. Definite overlay.

SPORTS WAGERS

Dallas +197 over BOSTON

Regulation only. The Bruins just don’t seem as hungry this season as they’ve been in previous years. This is a team that won a Cup in 2011 and appeared in the Finals in last year’s chaotic and grueling season. The Bruins could be suffering from burnout. They’ve won eight of 13 games but goaltender Tuukka Rask has won a few of those on his own and the Bruins are regressing instead of improving. Boston has one win over their past four games and that lone victory occurred in OT against the Ducks. Over their last seven games, Boston has created the least amount of scoring chances in the entire league. In four of those seven games, they’ve mustered up 23 or less shots on goal. Right now, the B’s are the NHL’s most overvalued team and in no way do they deserve this billing against the improving Stars.

As coach of the Sabres, Lindy Ruff gave the Bruins fits. As coach of the Dallas Stars, Ruff is instilling that same kind of work ethic that made the Sabres a tough out almost every night. Dallas has picked up points in five of its past six games. Unlike the Bruins, the Stars are improving each game under their intelligent, disciplinarian head coach. Dallas is loaded down the middle. Jamie Benn is a huge body with a massive shot that’s nearly impossible to contain and he’s surrounded by plenty more offensive talent. All that talent is playing in front of one of the league’s best goalies this season so far in Kari Lehtonen, who has the luxury of playing behind breakout experts Sergei Gonchar and Alex Goligoski. That kind of skill means less turnovers and less time in your own zone. One also has to figure that the entire team will be a little extra jacked up here in support of ex-Bruins, Tyler Seguin and Rich Peverly. This is without question the biggest overlay on the board today and must be played.

N.Y. Islanders +133 over WASHINGTON

Regulation only. The Capitals returned home from a tiring five-game trip othat saw them play the first four games on the Canadian West Coast before ending the trip in Philadelphia. The Caps won their first game back in OT against the Panthers on Saturday and this is now their second game back. When a mediocre club like the Capitals win their first game back after a trip, they are often very flat in the second game back. That applies here and even at their very best, Washington would still have a tough time against this guest.

The Islanders are beginning to turn up the heat. Matt Moulson was a great player for this team but the Islanders have not lost a beat with the incredible talent of Tomas Vanek. Against Ottawa last Friday, the Islanders fired away 57 shots on net in a 5-4 OT win. That score should have been 8-1 in their favor. On Saturday, the Islanders were all over the Bruins in a 3-1 win for their second win in two days. The Islanders outscored Boston and Ottawa 8-5 and outshot them 91-58. In a favorable spot with an offense that looks unstoppable right now, the Islanders offer up some tremendous value here.