Bryan Power
Phoenix vs. New Orleans
Pick: Phoenix
I simply don't believe that the Pelicans should be favored by this many points against any opponent, even this lowly Suns. Granted, they did just beat Charlotte by 21 Saturday night, but I just can't see them duplicating the feat here....
Phoenix actually has the better record here as they opened the year with B2B wins at home over Portland and Utah. They did lose last time out, but by only seven points at OKC in Russell Westbrook's season debut for the Thunder, which is not a bad showing at all. Especially when you consider they led going into the fourth quarter! Turnovers and points in the paint ultimately doomed the Suns in that game, but they did outscore Oklahoma City in transition.
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS off a win by 20 or more points the last two seasons. Prior to beating Charlotte, they were blown out in Orlando the night previous. Like I said at the top, I just don't think this is a team that deserves to be in this price range at this point in the season.
Dave Mathews
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Dallas Mavericks -8.5
The Lakers opened up with a 116-103 win over the Clippers and then reality struck. They lost two straight before finally beating Atlanta at home. Now they take on Dallas team that looks to be much-improved from last season. The Mavericks destroyed a good Memphis team on Saturday by 12 giving 3 at home. The addition of Samuel Dalembert takes pressure off of Dirk Nowitzki, while Monta Ellis is a pure scorer in the backcourt. The Lakers are still missing Kobe Bryant and they don't have enough in the backcourt to push Jose Calderon, Vine Carter and Ellis.
Dave Cokin
Philadelphia at Carolina
Play: Philadelphia
Two struggling entries take the ice tonight in Carolina as the Hurricanes play host to the Flyers. The visitors are already on their second head coach of the season and the hosts are beat up physically and mired in a major slump.
There is no way to feel truly comfortable about backing Flyers. Phllly has a multitude of issues. But I do like the way the Flyers responded off one of the most humiliating defeats the franchise has ever absorbed. This past Friday evening, Philadelphia embarrassed themselves in front of their home fans in a disgraceful 7-0 loss to the Flyers. This game was the definition of bottoming out in every respect.
But let’s give the Flyers credit for playing what night have been their best game of the season in terms of focus the very next night. Philly went on the road to face the Devils and got a 1-0 win. The fact they continued to have problems putting the puck in the net wasn’t a plus. But the determination to defend was obvious, as they not only pitched the shutout but also held the Devils to an amazingly low 14 shots on goal.
The hope and expectation here is that the Flyers will take the ice with that same attitude tonight against the Hurricanes. If they do so, they’re going to have a great shot at a second straight win. Carolina is having all kinds of problems right now, and that starts in the cage where thanks to injuries, Justin Peters is now the starter. The ‘Canes are 0-5 in front of Peters and the team is pure fade material right now.
I’m not at all convinced that the Flyers are about to turn things around and become a solid playoff caliber squad. But after rebounding from the Washington disaster, we could get a short term spike from this team. I’ve got to think they’re coming into this contest with a positive mindset off the shutout win. Chris Mason has enjoyed tremendous success against the Hurricanes, which adds to the asset column and the price is clearly not an obstacle. I’ll go with the visiting Flyers to notch a second straight win.
Jimmy Boyd
Lakers/Mavericks Under 214
While the Lakers have given up a decent amount of points statistically, those numbers are a bit misleading. If you take out their 125 points allowed to Golden State, their average drops from 105.5 points per game allowed to a mere 99 points. I don't think the Mavericks will be able to match Golden State's 125 points scored, which makes the under a strong play.
You also have to consider the fact that Dallas is not shooting well this season. They opened the season with a 57.1% shooting performance, but have not shot above 40% since that game. Against a team like the Lakers that will control the pace of this game, they are not going to get enough shots off to score as many points as they have with such poor shooting percentages. This total seems like an overreaction to the amount of points scored from both of these teams this season, but it is not considering how these teams will perform given the way they matchup.
Chip Chirimbes
Utah Jazz vs. Brooklyn Nets
Play: Brooklyn Nets -10
The Jazz are win-less at 0-3 and have dropped 10 straight dating back to last season. Brooklyn has gotten off to a slow start (1-2) and is coming off a 21-point loss to lowly Orlando and need a convincing win to help Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to feel more at home. Utah won both meetings last year and has beaten the Nets four straight times since trading Deron Williams to Brooklyn. The Jazz are not the same without Al Jefferson and Paul Milsap who left as free agents. In a much need good performance for new coach Jason Kidd the Nets win easily.
Steve Janus
Sacramento Kings -2
The Kings come into this one of back-to-back losses against two of the elite teams in the Western Conference in the Clippers and Warriors, which has people forgetting about their opening win at home over the Nuggets. Sacramento may not be ready to hang with the top teams, but they are certainly capable of beating the Hawks. Atlanta is a long way from home and will be playing their second road game in three nights after losing 103-105 to the Lakers on Sunday. The Hawks also lost their only other road game at Dallas. The Kings come in fresh off 2-days rest and I look for them to play with a lot of energy after getting called out by head coach Michael Malone following their lackluster performance at Golden State.
Joe Gavazzi
Bowling Green -23.5
This line may be 10 to 14 points higher than it would have been opening week. The adjustment is well deserved. Miami OH has tumbled into the abyss of CFB teams. They are currently on a negative slide of 5-15 ATS including 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS this year. HC Treadwell (fired) and QB Boucher (injured) have been replaced by inexperienced HC Klacik and QB Gearing. The offense averages 11 PPG, among the worst in the country, while the defense is in the bottom 10. Preference is for a veteran Bowling Green team with the top defensive scoring and yardage team in the league with offensive leadership from QB Johnson and RB Green. It would be a shock if Miami scores an offensive TD tonight.
Utah Jazz +10
Winning teams from last season like Utah, who have failed to break into the win column the following year, are solid plays as double digit dogs. This should be an ideal spot against a Brooklyn team who is still going through an adjustment phase with 1st time HC Kidd and their array of all stars still not melding as they will later in the year. The result has been a 1-2 SUATS start for Brooklyn with a -30 net AFP. A high profile win against defending champ Miami has been sandwiched between lower profile losses to Cleveland and Orlando. This number should be a Tuesday night mountain for a veteran team whom may only put forth their best efforts against conference rivals with an eye down the road to the NBA Playoffs.
Teddy Covers
Ohio vs. Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo
This is by far the best Bulls team since their eight win season in 2008; the year Buffalo played in their only bowl game. And make no mistake about it – the Bulls have this game ‘circled’ on their calendar after losing a frustrating heartbreaker to Ohio U last year; a defeat that sent Buffalo into a major funk.
The Bulls come into this game riding a six game winning streak, their longest since 1959. Their two losses this year – at Ohio State and at Baylor – are certainly nothing to be ashamed of. And since those two defeats, QB Joe Licata (9-3 as a starter) has an 11-2 TD- INT ratio, making good decisions with the football finding Alex Neutz and Fred Lee downfield on a consistent basis. But Buffalo’s greatest strength has been their defense, ranked in the Top 15 nationally in sacks, interceptions and turnover margin.
Buffalo head coach Jeff Quinn: “We need to separate ourselves certainly. Coach Solich has done an outstanding job. Five years bowl eligible. We’re striving to take full control of the MAC East at this point…. Last year I look back at it, what was the difference in that game? A 100-yard kickoff return and over 97 yards of penalty yards that kept the field position in their favor.”
Ohio has a solid senior quarterback in Tyler Tettleton, but I’m not convinced that they can match Buffalo’s defensive acumen. And after facing a bevy of weaklings for the last six weeks: Miami-Ohio, Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, Akron (four of the weakest teams in a down year for the MAC Conference) and FCS Austin Peay in their last five contests, this step up in class against a focused, motivated and talented foe is likely to be too much for the Bobcats tonight.
NHL Predictions
St. Louis Blues -108
The St. Louis Blues look to improve on an already stellar campaign with a win in Montreal against the Canadiens. The Blues have jumped out to one of the more surprising starts to the 2013 season, netting a 8-2-2 record in their first ten games. We cashed in with them a few days ago, and look to do it again against the Canadiens. Montreal is trying to keep their heads above water, struggling to find momentum with a 8-7-0 mark on the season. The Canadiens don't have any real solid goal scorers on this team to push them over the edge. Their numbers truly represents what their record indicates, an average team. They are averaging 2.73 goals per game and allowing 2.07. So, vanilla is what you get with the Canadiens this year, or I guess every year you could say. The Blues on the other hand have been pummeling opponents with their goal scoring, potting 3.58 goals a game. There isn't much attention on the Blues, and I think you'll find some shocked faces when they take a look at their record. However, they may turn a few Canadien fans into believers tonight, because I think they'll emerge victorious tonight. The Blues have also had a great history playing in Montreal, going 5-1 in their last six meetings. I like the Blues to bounce back from a Lightning loss Saturday night and take it by a score of around 4-2.
Wunderdog
Philadelphia at Carolina
Pick: Carolina +103
The Carolina Hurricanes have lost each of their last five games by 2 goals or more, and truly have not been competitive. All that does is add value to the line, as oddsmakers realize that the struggling team will not be a bettor's favorite. The Flyers have been struggling just as bad, entering this game with a 4-9 record on the season. Through 13 games, Philadelphia has scored more than 2 goals in just one of them. Teams that have lost their last five games, each by 2 goals or more, and have had an ROI of over 14% in their next game, so as bad as it looks here for Carolina, they are in a great spot. Take them here.
Jeff Alexander
Sacramento Kings -2
Oddsmakers are tipping their hand by favoring the Kings at home against a team they have lost to 10 straight times. Atlanta has struggled on the road where it is 0-2 this season and just 4-14 in its last 18. The Kings, who will be hungry to end their lengthy losing streak to the Hawks, have won 8 of their last 11 home games against Eastern Conference opponents. The Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Kings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Lay the deuce.
Dave Price
Detroit Pistons +2
With a 3-0 ATS start, the Pistons are now on a quiet 11-0-1 ATS run dating back to last season. They are 5-0 SU and ATS at home during this span with each of these five wins coming by at least eight points. It's also worth noting that the Pistons are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up victory and 6-0 ATS in their last six games when playing with one day of rest. In addition to some overwhelming numbers, we find Detroit in its most-motivated spot of the season. Indiana swept the season series last season with wins of 11, 19, 32 and 18 points. Despite losing all four of the meetings by double-digits, Detroit is catching only two points tonight? It appears odds makers like revenge-minded Detroit's chances. You want to back home teams when the line is +3 to -3 that allowed 80 points or less last game when they're up against an opponent that has held its last two opponents to 90 points or fewer. That's because doing so has produced a 55-25 ATS mark since 1996. This system tightens up to 5-1 ATS the last five seasons and 2-0 ATS the last three seasons. Indiana has been superb defensively, but it has really struggled at the offensive end. Detroit has been playing well at both ends, especially in its two home games. The Pacers won't have enough offense tonight. Take the points.
Brandon Shively
Bowling Green vs. Miami
Play:Bowling Green -23½
After two tough losses Bowling Green is coming off a much needed week of rest and will be ready to run the score up tonight vs. the worst team in the MAC, Miami Ohio. This Miami Ohio team is 0-8 'ITS' this year. They have not won the yardage battle in any games yet and of course that is why they are getting 24 points at home. This Miami Ohio team is only averaging 10.9 ppg and have not scored more than 17 points all season. I feel that Bowling Green has the best defense that they will have faced all year long and I clearly do not think that they will score over 13 points tonight. The only Achilles of the Bowling Green defense has been their run 'D' which has had problems, but considering the fact that Miami Ohio is only averaging 2.6 yards per rush, I do not expect them to have any problems tonight. In last year's game, Miami Ohio had ONLY 3 rush yards as I expect similar numbers tonight. Bowling Green has a balanced offense and I fully expect them to march up and down the field and score with ease and they will not let their foot off the gas in this one. Bowling Green loves playing in Weekday games as they are 7-1 ATS in Weekday road games and I am projecting a 45-13 final tonight.
Bowling Green improved their defense by over 100 yards from last season and with a buttload of juniors and seniors returning, look for them to clamp down and force turnovers. Miami Ohio's quarterback Austin Boucher is out for the season and they will call on either Drew Kummer ( 6 career pass attempts) or Austin Gearing ( a rFR who leads the team in rushing). While Boucher was not a great quarterback, he was a 5th year senior with experience and this is clearly a downgrade and I feel this is worth 4-7 points which further supports my analysis on this being a BLOWOUT.
Trends:
Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Falcons are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Falcons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
Redhawks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Redhawks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
Redhawks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
LT Profits
Bowling Green vs Miami
Pick: Under 48.5
The Bowling Green Falcons are more than three-touchdown favorites over the Miami-Ohio Redhawks, but we are interested in the ‘under’ in a game where only one team figures to do any scoring. Miami-Ohio remains winless at 0-8 while not yet exceeding 17 points in any game, averaging a woeful 10.9 points and ranking 124th in total offense at 228.1 yards per game. Do not look for improvement vs. a Bowling Green defense allowing 18.5 points per game overall. At the same time, while the Falcons are certainly capable offensively, they are not the type of team that runs up humongous scores, reaching 40 points just once vs. an FBS foe this season. Bowling Green is averaging 29.6 points, and if it does not blow that average away, this contest should stay ‘under’ with not much expected from the Redhawks. The ‘under’ is 21-5 in the last 26 Bowling Green games overall.
San Antonio vs Denver
Pick: Under 201
The Denver Nuggets led the NBA in scoring last season, but much of that had to do with ranking second in the NBA in pace rating. Well, Denver fired Coach George Karl and new coach Brian Shaw has scrapped Karl’s run-and-gun approach for more of a half-court game, and the Nuggets are off to an 0-2 start while averaging only 93.0 points. The San Antonio Spurs are 2-1 and averaging 99.0 points on an excellent 47.3 percent shooting after a 115-105 loss at Portland Saturday. However, after also being among the league leaders in tempo the last two seasons, they are only 13th in that category this year with their veteran-laden club so they may not reach their scoring average here vs. another team that is slowing the pace of its games thus far. The ‘under’ is 18-7-1 in the Spurs’ last 26 road games.
Nelly
Utah Jazz + over Brooklyn Nets
The new look Brooklyn Nets are just 1-2 on the season with the lone win coming by just a single point. While the Nets figure to be among the better teams in the Eastern Conference it won't likely be an overnight success with all the new pieces. Losing by 21 to Orlando in the last games certainly rings some alarm and this is an incredibly old team that may take some time to find its rhythm. Brooklyn has been slow on defense with 102 points allowed this season on over 45 percent shooting and keep in mind the Nets are being coached by Jason Kidd, a hall of fame player, but someone with no coaching experience whatsoever. Utah is 0-3 on the season but the Jazz do not figure to be a terrible team this year. Utah's schedule has been tough with home games against Oklahoma City and Houston, two competitive games and the lone road loss came at surprising Phoenix in a three-point game. Utah has only been out-scored by 17 total points combined in the three games and the Jazz have held good scoring teams to just 97 points per game on 42 percent shooting. Utah has strong rebounding numbers as Enes Kanter is starting to make a significant impact in his second season and this a team with very big guards led by 68 Gordon Hayward and 66 Alec Burks. There is a great contrast in these rosters with the all star power of Brooklyn and a cast of little known players for the Jazz but right now the gap between these teams may not be that significant especially with a huge double-digit spread.