Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, November 9,2010

Matt Fargo

Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat
Play: Utah Jazz +10

This is the perfect example of an overinflated line. Miami is a double-digit favorite over a top team from the Western Conference and I feel it is unjustified. The Heat were favored by a point over the Jazz at Miami last year so the linesmakers are saying that the additions of LeBron James and Chris Bosh are worth nine points and that should not be the case. The Heat have a revenge game on deck against Boston up next. Utah got off to a slow start by losing its first two games but has since responded by going 3-1 over its last four contests. The biggest of the bunch was a 21-point win at Oklahoma Coty, a team many are saying can contend in the Western Conference. This is the first of a four-game trip for the Jazz with the first three consisting of games against the Heat. Magic and Hawks. Focus will be on display starting tonight. The Miami Herald had an interesting take on the Heat and that is the fact they have struggled against elite point guard, namely Rajon Rondo of Boston and Chris Paul of New Orleans. Tonight, they square off against arguably the best of the bunch in Deron Williams. Williams is averaging 20.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg and 9.0 apg this season. Both Rondo’s and Paul’s athleticism still caused problems for the Heat's backcourt at times. The Jazz are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games against the Eastern Conference and they are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game. Miami has owned this series by covering 10 of the last 11 meetings, but again, Utah has not seen a spread such as this one. 3* Utah Jazz

Rob Vinciletti

Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana Pacers -1

The Pacers are rested and ready tonight with 3 days rest. They are coming off a home loss to Milwaukee in their last game and catch Denver in the second of back to back road. Not a good spot for road teams vs opponents with this much rest. The Nuggets are a horrendous 0-7 straight up and ats losing by an average 11 points per game on the road with no rest if they are a dog of 4 or less and shot 45% or less from the field last night and their opponent is coming off a home game. Look for the Pacers to come away with the win tonight.

JIM FEIST

NUGGETS / PACERS
PLAY: OVER

Denver is still an uptempo offense and doesn't care for defense, allowing 46% shooting. The Nuggets are 8th in the NBA in scoring and come into this one in the second of a back to back spot. They've scored 100 or more points in 5 of their first 6 games. The Pacers will run right at the tired legs of Denver, but the Indiana defense hasn't been strong, allowing 100 or more in three of the first four games, plus 101 and 94 the last two games (both losses). Look for a run-and-gun game, Play the Nuggets/Pacers Over the total.

Nelly

Los Angeles - over Minnesota

This game features a huge spread but Minnesota has given no indication that they will be able to compete against the two-time defending champions. After a one-point loss and a narrow win there has been nothing but lopsided losses for the Wolves, dropping five consecutive games all by double-digits. Only one of the five losses came by less than a 20-point margin and this will be a second straight road game and a fifth road game in six games for Minnesota, a challenging travel stretch early in the year. The Lakers are undefeated and Los Angeles is 5-2 ATS this season despite facing heavy favoritism as a very popular team. Luke Ridnour is questionable for the Wolves in this game and his absence would really cripple any chances for Minnesota as one of the lone veteran presences on the court. Minnesota is allowing 114 points per game on nearly 48 percent shooting and the switch to a more up-tempo style has not benefited the team so far. Minnesota is on a 6-20-1 ATS run going back to last season and while the prices are climbing, fading this team still makes sense.

EZWINNERS

Toledo Rockets +11.5

The Vegas lines makers are asking too much of Northern Illinois in my opinion in this match up with Toledo. Toledo has owned the series, especially as of late, winning fourteen of the last sixteen meetings and NIU hasn’t fared any better when they are at home, as they have lost eleven out of seventeen games to Toledo at Huskie Stadium. I never feel comfortable taking a team that is asked to win by a big margin against an opponent that has had their number as is this case in this game. The Rockets have played a much tougher schedule than the Huskies and even though I feel the Huskies are the better team, I don't believe that are 12 points better. I believe that the Rockets will keep this one close. Take the points.

Jorge Gonzalez

Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat -10

The Miami Heat are still trying to figure out how the points are going to be split up. LeBron James looks to be the distributor with career low numbers with Dwayne Wade leading the team in scoring. Chris Bosh is having the hardest time picking his spots and getting into the flow of the offense. Despite the need to get the big three in sync, Miami is 5-2 on the season and only going to get better. The Jazz have won three of their last four games but will be flying cross country to play in a city they would rather just pass through. The Heat have dominated the Jazz in Miami winning their last five straight up and against the spread by 12.6 points per game. Take the Heat!

Tom Freese

New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks
Prediction: New York Knicks

Milwaukee is 2-5 straight up this year. The Bucks are 1-4 ATS when playing with two days of rest and they are 0-3-1 ATS their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of greater than 60% are 1-2 ATS their last 3 meetings with the Knicks. New York is 3-3 straight up this year. The Knicks are 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 games off an ATS loss. New York is 5-1 ATS their last 6 games vs. a team with a win percentage of under 40%. New York is 5-2 ATS their last 7 road games and they are 4-1-1 ATS their last 6 games overall.

SPORTS WAGERS

Atlanta +1.56 over OTTAWA

The Sens are racking up a few wins lately but so what. They’ve won three in a row over the slumping Islanders, Leafs and Canadiens. The Leafs and Islanders, between them, have one win in the last 16 games and the Habs have dropped three of four. The Sens have an unreliable defense that can be pressured into making a lot of bad decisions and they didn’t suddenly get better. They’re not a bad team by any stretch and they’ll run out three pretty good lines but in no way are they worthy of this tag against Atlanta, especially after wins against big rivals Toronto and Ottawa. The Thrashers are 100% improved over a year ago and they beat this team twice in two attempts last season by scores of 6-1 and 6-3. They take an offensive backseat to nobody and while its defense is a work in progress to be sure, they still have some solid players back there that include Zach Begosian, Johnny Oduya and Dustin Byfuglien. The Thrashers are also 4-2 on the road and play much better in front of a crowd than they do at home to an empty joint. Definite overlay. Play: Atlanta +1.56 (Risking 2 units).

CAROLINA -½ +1.17 over Edmonton

It really doesn’t matter who the Canes are playing, as this is a team that gets jacked up for every game and the only time they’re somewhat flat is when they’re exhausted. They’ve had a strenuous schedule thus far with a ton of miles covered and yet they’re still a .500 hockey team. Well, that incredibly tough stretch of travel and games is going to pay off at some point and the Canes come into this one with two full days of rest. They’ve lost two games at home this year, one against the Penguins and one against the Caps. The Canes will not get outworked and it’s also worth nothing they have a significant edge in net with Cam Ward over anyone the Oilers can throw out there. The Oilers have two wins over its last 10 games, both over Chicago. They’re a young and exciting team but they’re going to lose a lot more games than they win and that’s because they give up way too many goals. In fact, they’ve given up four or more in seven of its last 10 games and until they solidify themselves in net that problem is not going to go away. Canes in a good spot here after an extremely difficult stretch. Play: Carolina -½ +1.17 (Risking 2 units).

Calgary +1.24 over COLORADO

There are about two or three “beat reporters” for every team in the NHL and all of them use Twitter to relate things that you normally wouldn’t hear about or see on the ice. We follow them all and you can sometimes get a sense of the dressing room, among other things and a sense of what’s going on behind the scenes. Roger Millions, the beat reporter that covers the Flames, had some interesting observations after Friday’s 2-1 loss to the Wild that are worth noting.

These are three quotes from him with the first one being:

”Interesting time for Flames..after game in Minny..dressing room was very revealing..everyone was absolutely livid..even those you don't see”.

Then came:

“Guys that normally don't get choked ..were..maybe a good sign..look this is a team that must give everything everynight..just a fact”.

And finally:

“Really see a difference in demeanor..who knows maybe a turning point..we will see”.

Now, this doesn’t mean that the Flames are going to win. It doesn’t guarantee a damn thing. However, after four straight losses and after those strong observations, you can almost be guaranteed that the Flames will play their hearts out tonight. The Av’s are a decent team but they’re also a very beatable team if you work hard because they sure do. Calgary has been off for four days and in the state of mind they’re in that can seem like an eternity. Expect a spirited effort tonight. Outside of the players and coaches, nobody has a better sense of the team than the reporters that cover them every day for the entire NHL season. Play: Calgary +1.24 (Risking 2 units).

Marc Lawrence

Minnesota @ L.A. Lakers
PICK: Minnesota

It's hold you nose time in the NBA tonight when the Timberwolves invade Los Angeles to take on the Lakers at the Staples Center. Minnesota takes the floor knowing they are 9-3-1 ATS in its last thirteen games on this court, including 5-2 ATS when snagging 14 or more points. With the Lakers nice and content with a perfect start to the 2010-11 season and looking ahead to a bigger game with Denver on Thursday night, look for the Wolves to to howl here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.

Sam Martin

Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers
Prediction: Denver Nuggets

We'll back the Nuggets in a virtual pick 'em spot here, as we're not convinced Indiana is able to keep up with the Nuggets offensively until we see it with our own eyes. The Pacers are coming off two awful offensive showing where they put up 75 points on 32% shooting in a blowout loss against Philly, and then 90 points on 39% shooting in a loss against the Bucks. And both of those losses came in the favorite role. Denver sends Indy to their third straight outright loss as favorites!

John Ryan

Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers
Play: New York Rangers

5* graded play on the Rangers set to start at 7:30 PM ET. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the NY Rangers will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 239-270 making 96.9 units since 1996. Play against a favorite against the money line after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games and is a tired team playing their 4th game in 7 days. This is a tremendous system that truly exploits false favorites averaging a +154 DOG play. Rangers are playing well and have already established a 6-1 record against the money line (+7.1 Units) as an underdog this season. Rangers are projected to score 3 goals and in past games they gave posted a 28-11 mark making 18.5 units over the past 3 seasons. Take the Rangers.

Wunderdog

Cavaliers vs. Nets
Play: Under 196.5

The New Jersey Nets will probably win a few more games this year than they did a year ago. But this is a team that more often than not struggles at the offensive end, and goes through a lot of droughts during a game. Their last four have seen them score less than 20 in a quarter on seven occasions, while averaging just 85 points per game. The cavaliers are off a pair of games that scored above their norm, but those numbers are unsustainable with the way the roster is presently constituted. The Cavs are 11-2 in their last 13 as a dog of under 5, and 5-1 to the UNDER after scoring 100 or more points. These teams have struggled to score vs. each other as the last eight meetings have seen six fall shy of the total.

Bettor Wins

Toledo vs. No Illinois
Play: N Illinois -10.5

Northern Illinois ranks 11th nationally putting up over 243 yards per game on the ground on 5.6 yards per carry. Running back Chad Spann has rumbled for 1000 yards and 12 rushing touchdowns already. Quarterback Chandler Harnish completes 66 percent of his attempts and has 12 touchdowns to four interceptions while sitting second on the team with 559 rushing yards. The Huskies sit 35th in the country putting up 416.9 yards of total offense per game while producing an average of 30.7 points a contest.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Portland Trail Blazers -9.5

Off an embarrassing loss to the Lakers, expect the Blazers to take out their frustrations on an inferior Pistons team, which finds itself in a tough spot playing its first game on the West Coast this season.

The fact that odds makers have set the over/under line so low at 188 tells us something. It tells us that a Detroit team only averaging 91.3 ppg on the road is going to have a tough time putting the ball in the basket. This really doesn't come as a surprise considering the Pistons have been held to an average of 86.0 points while losing their last three in Portland.

This line also tells us that it expects a strong defensive effort from Portland after it allowed 121 points to the Lakers. Consider that the Blazers are 14-4 ATS after a playing a game with a combined score of 215 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning in this situation by an average score of 100.7 to 86.4.

The Trail Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Lay the points with Portland.