SPORTS ADVISORS
Arkansas State (1-3, 1-2 ATS) at Louisiana-Monroe (3-2, 3-1 ATS)
The Sun Belt Conference gets some rare national exposure as Arkansas State heads south for a league battle with the Warhawks at Malone Stadium.
The Red Wolves bring a three-game SU losing streak to Monroe, La., though they put a big scare into then-No. 13 and undefeated Iowa 10 days ago, losing 24-21 and covering easily as a 21-point road underdog. Arkansas State trailed 14-0 for nearly the entire first half and got outgained 420-296, but it picked off Iowa QB Richard Stanzi twice, returning one for a second-half touchdown. During their three-game losing skid, the Red Wolves have been outgained by margins of 212, 202 and 124, and they haven’t defeated a Division I-A school this season.
UL-Monroe is coming off consecutive Sun Belt victories over Florida Atlanta (27-25 as a 3½-point road underdog) and Florida International (48-35 as a 6½-point home chalk). In the rout of FIU on Oct. 3, the Warhawks piled up 577 total yards (304 rushing) and surrendered 391 (77 rushing).
The home team has won the last four meetings in this rivalry, but Louisiana-Monroe got the cash all four times, all as an underdog. Last year, the Warhawks went to Arkansas State and fell 37-29, but barely covered as a 14½-point underdog. In fact, the pup has covered in nine straight meetings between these schools since 1998, with six outright upsets. Also, the visitor is 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes.
Although they easily got the money at Iowa, Arkansas State is still in ATS funks of 2-9 overall, 1-7 on the road, 1-6 in Sun Belt play, 2-8 after a bye, 1-4 in October and 10-26-1 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, UL-Monroe has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 after a bye, but otherwise, the Warhawks are on impressive ATS runs of 8-3 overall in lined action, 3-0 at home, 21-8-1 in conference action, 10-4-1 in October, 9-3-1 after a SU win and 5-0 when facing opponents with a losing record.
Arkansas State is on “under” runs of 12-3-1 overall in lined action, 12-3-1 on the highway, 9-2-1 when playing on grass and 3-1-1 in October. On the flip side, Louisiana-Monroe carries “over” trends of 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 5-1 in October and 18-7-1 in games following a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISIANA-MONROE
DUNKEL
NCAAF
Arkansas State at UL Monroe
The Warhawks look to take advantage of an Arkansas State team that is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 road games. UL Monroe is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Warhawks favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: UL Monroe (-1 1/2)
Game 101-102: Arkansas State at UL Monroe
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 77.136; UL Monroe 80.549
Dunkel Line: UL Monroe by 3 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: UL Monroe by 1 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: UL Monroe (-1 1/2); Over
NHL
Detroit at Buffalo
The Red Wings look to build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 meetings in Buffalo. Detroit is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100)
Game 51-52: Calgary at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.512; Columbus 11.441
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+130); Over
Game 53-54: Detroit at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 13.545; Buffalo 12.937
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100); Under
Game 55-56: Colorado at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.405; Toronto 11.358
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); Over
Rob Vinciletti
Detroit Red Wings vs. Buffalo Sabres
Play: Detroit Red Wings
The Wings have owned the Sabres over the past few years going 14-2.When playing In Buffalo they have won 6 of the last 7. The Wings are just 2-2 on the season thus far,however it is early and they still are a premiere team in the NHL.Look for them to beat the Sabers once again tonight.
JIM FEIST
WASHINGTON WIZARDS / DETROIT PISTONS
TAKE DETROIT PISTONS
Detroit is playing great for their new coach, even in preseason, a perfect 3-0. Newcomer Ben Gordon scored 22 points and Rodney Stuckey added 20 as the new-look Detroit Pistons remained undefeated in the preseason with a 100-91 victory over the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday night. The Pistons are now 3-0 even though Charlie Villanueva (hamstring) has yet to play. As usual, Washington is a mess, giving up 105 ppg, one of the worst marks in preseason. This is the second of a brutal 6-game road trip for Washington. Play the Pistons.
LT Profits
Arkansas St. @ Louisiana Monroe
The Arkansas State Red Wolves gave the nationally ranked Iowa Hawkeyes all that they can handle last week, and UL Monroe is better defensively than they looked in a 48-35 win over Florida International last week, and we see this game staying Under this big posted total.
The Red Wolves pushed Iowa to the brink last week before losing 24-21, and no one can accuse Arkansas State of scheduling cupcakes. Aside from the Hawkeyes, the other non-conference game for ASU came vs. Nebraska.
In fact, even their only conference game this season came vs. Sun Belt kingpin Troy, so aside from their lone win vs. an outclassed Mississippi Valley State team, this game tonight looks like their softest game of the season so far. And yet, their defense has commendably allowed only 23.0 points per game, and Iowa found out first hand that the Wolves are not your garden variety 1-3 team.
Now UL Monroe is allowing 31.4 points per game, but remember that they gave up 59 points to second ranked Texas and 38 points to Arizona State, so this assignment is much easier. In fact, the Warhawks are allowing only 3.2 yards per rush this season, and Arkansas State is a team that need to run to set up the past. Thus, if the Monroe run defense remains stout, it would take the Red Wolves out of their comfort level.
So the bottom line he is that while each offense is capable, we feel these teams are both underrated defensively, and we do not see this game getting out of the 40s.
Pick: Arkansas State / UL Monroe Under 54
EZWINNERS
Arkansas State Red Wolves @ Louisiana Monroe Warhawks
PLAY: OVER 52.5
Both Arkansas State and Louisiana Monroe are very capable of scoring points, especially with their passing game through the air. This points to a high scoring game as both of these teams pass defense is among the worst in the nation. Out of 120 teams in the Bowl Subdivision (FBS) Arkansas State is #112 in the nation in passing defense allowing 266.5 yards per game and Louisiana Monroe is #113 in the nation in passing defense allowing 268.2 yards per game. With both of these teams looking to attack the opponents' weak secondary's this could turn into a four hour game. Play on the OVER.
Randall the Handle
COLUMBUS -½ +1.26 over Calgary
As it turns out the Flames have a quite a few issues of their own and a close look reveals some alarming info. The Flames are 4-1-1, however, they’ve beaten the Oilers twice (barely), the Habs once (barely) and a early season messed up Canucks team. They got beat rather handily by the Stars and they followed that up by blowing a 5-0 lead last night. They got a 5-0 lead because of some absolutely brutal goaltending and not because of its strong play. Don’t get me wrong, the Flames have snipers but they also have some serious defensive issues and that’s a little surprising considering they have Boumeester and Phaneuf back there. Furthermore, Mikka Kiprusoff has not looked sharp at all and he’s one of those goalies that has seen his numbers get worse with each passing year. The Flames have allowed at least three goals against in every game and they haven’t played a single game against the NHL’s elite. Meanwhile, the Jackets are quietly 3-1 with its only loss coming at San Jose. They’re getting tremendous goaltending from Steve Mason, they have a very talented group of forwards and they’re a team on the rise. Despite returning home from a West Coast trip, the Jackets are rested and they’re playing a Flames team playing the tail end of back-to-back games after they were completely manhandled in the second and third periods last night. Play: Columbus -½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
VEGAS EXPERTS
Arkansas State at Louisiana Monroe
We think the public has got this one all wrong as every LA Monroe game this year has seen at least 52 points scored minimum, including 83 last week vs. Florida International. When these teams met last year, it was a 37-29 final and we find the Warhawks at 8-1 Over when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points. They are averaging 33.4 PPG overall this year and 53.0 PPG at home.
Play on: Over