Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, October 14

EZWINNERS

Texas State Bobcats -2.5

Louisiana Lafayette is the defending Sun Belt champions but they don't look anything like the team that won this conference last year. Texas State is a team on the rise in the Sun Belt. The Ragin Cajuns had a dominating win against the Bobcats last season, but I expect a different result this year. Texas State is a much better team, especially on the offensive side of the ball. UL-Lafayette's defense is also not as good as last years team as they are allowing 458 yards per game. The Bobcats have a physical running game. Running backs Terrence Franks and Robert Lowe have both rushed for more than 400 yards this season whit Franks averaging 7.8 yards per carry and Lowe 5.9 yards per carry. If you stack the box to key on the run the Bobcats quarterback Tyler Jones can throw it as he has passed for over 1100 yards this season and rushed for another 253 yards. The ULL defense has also not been able to get off the field on third down as they are allowing almost a 50% conversion rate. That will spell doom against the Bobcats that will control the clock with their running game. The ULL offense can score some points, but they are not as explosive as they have been in past seasons. The bottom line is that ULL's defense ranks 102nd in the nation and really hasn't stopped anyone all season. Lay the small number.

DAVE COKIN

UL-LAFAYETTE AT TEXAS STATE
PLAY: UL-LAFAYETTE +2.5

Don’t look for a great deal of defense tonight as the Ragin’ Cajuns and the Bobcats hook up. Neither team is much good at stopping opponents, and with the national TV lights on the scene, I’m assuming the play books are thrown wide open tonight.

UL-Lafayette has been a disappointment this season. The Cajuns were the consensus top choice in the Sun Belt this season. Actually, they’re 1-0 in league play, so they could well get it together and win the SBC. But they have not played good football. ULL has had a real issue with its turnover ratio, QB Terrance Broadway has been erratic and the defense has been mostly terrible despite being very experienced.

Texas State stands 3-2 and nearly upset Illinois on the road. Dennis Franchione has done a fine job of building this program from scratch in just a handful of years. The Bobcats have a sleight of hand QB in Tyler Jones and Terrence Franks is an explosive RB who is off a great game against Idaho. But Texas State is awful defending the run, and Elijah McGuire could have a huge night carrying the football for the road team.

I really don’t see much to separate these teams. Louisiana demolished the Bobcats last year, but Texas State has clearly gotten better and the Cajuns have apparently declined. In my rankings, I have ULL two spots ahead of Texas State, so it’s a virtual wash and with the home field added in, the number is right where it ought to be.

The key could come down to nerves. That’s where the visitors have an advantage. ULL is a senior laden team that has been in its share of spotlight games, including three straight bowl appearances. This is a mostly new experience for Texas State and if anyone is more likely to rattle under the bright lights, I have to think it’s Texas State. It’s only a lean for me as this is written, but the only side I’ll consider playing is UL-Lafayette.

Rob Vinciletti

UL Lafayette vs. Texas State
Play: Texas State -2.5

Texas St makes a rare Mid week appearance here in front of a national audience and they have better numbers on both sides of the ball as they are averaging nearly 500 yards on offense which over 100 yards better than LA. Lafayette. State has won 8 of 10 as a favorite including wins and covers both times at home laying 3 or less. They have blowout loss revenge from their worst loss of last season. The Cajuns have failed to cover the last 7 times if they were favored in their last game and 4 of the last 5 on turf. Look for Texas St to get the win and cover.

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Ray Monohan

Baltimore vs. Kansas City
Play: Over 7½

The Royals took the first two and are in control in the series. There is value on either side for G3 but I think the real value is on the total. The Royals have been scoring more runs in the post-season and there is a reason both starters are slotted here instead of earlier in the series. Plus the Royals have the luxury of being more strategic in this one with their relievers. They don’t have to go with the best option as they may want to work in some other guys.

Art Aronson

Dallas Stars vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Play: Dallas Stars +112

The Dallas Stars (0-2) come in hungry, they’ve yet to win this year and they lost both contests against the Jackets last season. Dallas is a favorite amongst many to take the next step in the West after some strong moves in the offseason that brought in veterans Jason Spezza and Ales Hemsky. While the moves haven’t panned out yet, I think that changes here. Dallas started the season with a loss to the powerhouse Blackhawks in a shootout and then suffered a predictable letdown in the following game at Nashville. Columbus (2-0) comes in looking to match its’ best start in franchise history. Wins over the Rangers and Sabres have the fans and team excited but I think we need to take those victories into context, so far both of those clubs have been brutal. Columbus has also been bailed out by its All-Star goalie in Sergei Bobrobsky who has started off the season hot again. But note that the Jackets are still without some key skaters in Nathan Horton, Boone Jenner, Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Murray. Two games against easy opponents may have masked those absences, but I think it will be a lot tougher to do so against a focused, determined and revenge minded Stars team.

Art Aronson's Featured Package

Jim Feist

Cardinals at Giants
Pick: Over

The over is 11-3 in the Giants last 14 playoff home games. San Fran has home field but 39-year old Tim Hudson had a terrible close to the regular season and the last four years he has a 6.01 ERA against St. Louis. The over is 13-3 in the Giants last 16 playoff games as a favorite of -110 to -150, plus 9-1 over the total in the postseason as a favorite. St. Louis is showing that same experience and magic of a year ago after a must-win in Game 2. St. Louis is 9th in baseball in on base percentage. Starter John Lackey has a 2.94 ERA at home, but 4.73 on the road. The over is 6-2 in the Cardinals last 8 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, as well as 8-2 over the total in their last 10 League Championship road games. And the over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these teams here in San Francisco.

Jesse Schule

Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals
Pick: Kansas City Royals

This team seems destined to play in the World Series, and with all the clutch hitting, stellar defensive plays and a solid bullpen, how could you possibly bet against them? The Royals will turn to veteran Jeremy Guthrie in Game 3, and he was sharp at the end of the regular season. The right-hander was 3-1 with a 2.40 through five starts in the month of September, and he sees his first action of the post-season tonight. He's had success against Oriole hitters in the past, with Adam Jones 1-for-12 lifetime versus Guthrie. Baltimore will hand the ball to Wei-Yin Chen, who fell apart in his previous post-season appearance versus Detroit. He was chased from Game 2 of the ALDS after surrendering five runs on seven hits, including a pair of home runs all in just 3 2/3 innings. Behind Chen is an Orioles bullpen that has been great all year, but has struggled in this series, with Darren O'Day getting credit for the loss in both the first two games in Baltimore. Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer have owned Chen, with both hitting better than .400 with a combined four home runs and nine RBIs

Jesse Schule's Featured Package.

Dr Bob

TEXAS STATE (-2½) 34 UL Lafayette 29

Louisiana Lafayette was expected to be the class of the Sun Belt Conference with All-Conference quarterback Terrance Broadway back for a 3rd season as the starter along with big play back Elijah McGuire and WR Jamal Robinson, but the Ragin’ Cajuns have struggled to recapture the offensive production of the previous two seasons and are riding a 4 game spread losing streak heading into tonight’s game. Part of the problem was the absence of Robinson for 2 ½ games following an injury in week 2. Robinson returned in the Cajuns’ last game against Georgia State and caught 8 passes for 119 yard with two touchdowns in the 34-31 win (as a 17 point favorite). Robinson leads the team in receiving yards despite playing only half of the team’s 5 games and he’s averaged 13.0 yards on the 20 passes directed at him this season. Broadway has struggled this season (5.5 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback) but he’s averaged 7.8 yppp in the two full games that Robinson played in. However, those games were against Southern University and Georgia State, who would combine to allow 8.5 yppp to an average quarterback, so the Lafayette pass attack was still below average – although not quite as bad. Texas State has a pretty solid pass defense but the Bobcats are horrible defending the run, having allowed 257 yards at 5.8 yards per rushing play in 4 games against FBS teams that would combine to average just 4.6 yprp against an average defensive team. Lafayette has averaged 5.6 yprp (against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team), so I expect a big day on the ground for McGuire, who is averaging 7.1 ypr this season (and has 1194 yards at 8.2 ypr in his career) and has been upgraded to probable for tonight (he has a sprained toe). My math model projects 280 rushing yards and 488 total yards at 6.2 yards per play for the Ragin’ Cajuns in this game, so they should score a good number of points.

The biggest problem with UL Lafayette has been a defense that’s allowed 6.4 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would average just 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Texas State is not great offensively (0.7 yppl worse than average) but the Bobcats have proven that they can score on sub-par defensive teams (they’re averaging 38.6 points against their schedule of bad defensive teams) and my model projects 453 yards at 6.3 yppl for home team tonight. While UL Lafayette has a bit of an advantage from the line of scrimmage the Bobcats have an edge in projected turnovers and overall the math favors Texas State by 1 ½ points. However, I’ll lean with Texas State in this game based on a negative 56-121-4 ATS situation that applies to UL Lafayette.

Jeff Clement

St Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants -130

Game 3 N.L.C.S: Series tied 1-1. Cardinals have John Lackey on the mound who won his playoff game in the NLDS vs. the Giants Tim Hudson who pitched well in NLDS only allowing 1 run in 7.2 innings but got a no decision. St.Louis is 4-9 last 13 road playoff games and 1-4 last 5 Lackey road starts. The Giants are 6-1 last 7 home playoff games and 9-3 last 12 Hudson home starts as a favorite. The Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina is out for Game 3 so I expect the Giants will get a victory today behind Hudson's pitching at home.

Big Al

Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets
Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets

No longer the doormats of the NHL, the Blue Jackets come into the Fall off of their best season ever, having amassed the most wins (43) and points (93) in franchise history and giving the Penguins a very tough time in their first-round playoff series. The Jackets should be better this season than last, as this is a young team (second youngest in the league at 26.2 average age) and the offense has probably improved itself - and become more physical - with the acquisition of veteran winger Scott Hartnell from the Flyers. Number one goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is coming off of a solid season in which he started 58 games in net and the plan is to have Bobrovsky start at least 70 games this season and so far, he's been solid, leading the Jackets to a 2-0 record with easy wins over the Sabres and Rangers. Although the Stars probably improved their team on offense with the acquisitions of Jason Spezza and Ales Hemsky, they really didn't do anything to help themselves on the blue line and that could be a problem for a team that ranked 23rd in power plays and 19th in penalty kills. Columbus has won four of the last five meetings.

Dave Price

Cardinals/Giants Under 7

The under is 4-0 in St. Louis' last four games when the total is 7.0-8.5, and it is 4-0 in Lackey's last four starts. The veteran right-hander is in a groove, posting a 1.69 ERA over his last three starts. The under is 16-4 the last two seasons in Lackey's starts if he gave up two earned runs or less in each of his last two outings. The under is also 14-2-1 all-time in his playoff starts. Hudson was fantastic at Washington in his last start, giving up just one run in 7 1-3 innings of a 2-1 victory while striking out eight and walking none. He was also masterful in his lone start against the Cardinals this season, holding them scoreless in seven innings of work while giving up just three hits. The under is 5-2-1 in Hudson's last eight starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Jimmy Boyd

Baltimore Orioles -112

The Orioles could just as easily be leading this series 2-0 instead of trailing 0-2. While the Royals still need two more wins, Baltimore is going to treat this like an elimination game. They simply can't afford to fall behind 0-3 in the series. I like Buck Showalter's teams to come away with a big win in KC tonight.

The Royals will be starting Jeremy Guthrie, who hasn't pitched since Sept. 26. While he finished the regular season strong, I look for him to be a bit rusty early and for Baltimore to capitalize. Not having pitched in the postseason and all the sudden getting thrown under the fire in the ALCS will have the nerves rocking for Guthrie. Keep in mind Guthrie had just a 4.09 ERA and 1.298 WHIP over 32 starts.

Baltimore is going to counter with Wie-Yin Chen. There could be some concern here with Chen after he allowed 5 runs on 7 hits in just 3 2/3 innings at home against the Tigers at home in the ALDS. The key thing to note is that Chen has pitched better on the road than at home. Chen had a 3.76 ERA at home and a 3.33 ERA on the road. In his lone start at KC during the regular season, Chen held the Royals to just 1 run on 7 hits over 5 1/3 innings of work.

Orioles are 18-8 in Chen's last 26 starts against a team with a winning record, 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite and 4-1 in his last 5 against the AL Central. KC is just 1-5 in Guthrie's last 6 starts against the AL East and 1-4 in his last 5 home starts when listed as an underdog. T

John Ryan

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: St. Louis Cardinals +120

Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 135-111 mark for just 55% winners, BUT has made a whopping 60 units/unit wagered averaging a +128 DOG play since 2008. Play on road teams (ST LOUIS) starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest and is a cold hitting team batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. Cardinals are a solid 21-7 (+14.2 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span this season. Giants have been a money burning 14-27 (-16.2 Units) against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 5 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Lackey is a very intense and emotional starting pitcher and it showed in his last start against the Dodgers where he allowed just 1 ER on 7 hits and completed 7 1/3 innings of work. Over his last three starts he has posted a 1.69 ERA with a 0.984 WHIP spanning 21 1/3 innings. Hudson pitched well in this last start on extra rest and has not pitched since October 4. That added rest can certainly help, but we have also seen far more examples of well rested starters have difficulty early in games to find their spots. St. Louis is an opportunistic hitting team and they will make him pay for early inning mistakes.

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Steve Janus

Kansas City Royals +107

The fact that this is a must-win game for the Orioles has created some great value on the Royals at home. Kansas City has something special going right now and I just don't see them relaxing because they have a 2-0 lead in the series. Baltimore is a team that relies heavily on the home run, which plays into the Royals favor. Kauffman Stadium is not a hitter-friendly park, which I believe gives the Royals a big advantage.

KC's Jeremy Guthrie will be making his first start of the postseason and he's going to be coming out with a lot of confidence after he finished the regular season with a 0.44 ERA and .787 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Not to mention Guthrie has a 2.67 career ERA against the Orioles. Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen was tagged for 5 runs against the Tigers at home and I look for the Royals to score just enough to get the win.

System - Home underdogs with a good bullpen that converts 75% or more of their save opportunities with a strong defensive catcher that allows 0.5 or less steals/game are 96-72 over the last 5 seasons.