Nick Parsons
Dallas vs. Columbus
Play: Under 5½
The Columbus Blue Jackets looking to open the season with three straight wins, while Dallas is looking for their first win of the season. I am playing the total in this game and playing it under.
Columbus is without Brandon Dubinsky, Nathan Horton, Ryan Murray and Boone Jenner. They have been anchored by their top line of Ryan Johansen, Cam Atkinson and Nick Foligno. They have totaled nine points, six coming in their last game.
The Blue Jackets are going with Sergei Bobrovsky between the pipes. He is 6-0-1 with a 1.82 GAA in seven career starts against the Stars.
Dallas has had trouble producing goals this season. Their top line has yet to produce a point this year. They have come up empty on 12 shots this season.
Dallas will turn to top goaltender Kari Lehtonen, who was rested after making 24 saves in a season-opening 3-2 shootout loss. He is 5-5-1 with a 1.91 goals-against average in 11 career starts against Columbus..
Dallas is scoring 1.5 goals and giving up3.0 goals a game. Columbus on the other hand is averaging 4 goals a game and giving up 1.5. Both teams have been excellent at killing penalties as Dallas has only allowed one and Columbus hasn’t allowed any. I like this to go under the total as you have two good goaltenders that play well against each other. There shouldn’t be many easy special team scores and Dallas hasn’t been scoring much anyway.
Sam Martin
St Louis at San Francisco
Prediction: Under
Given the way both of these teams have played this postseason and combined with these pitchers' history against each other, we expect today's pivotal Game Three between the Cards and the Giants to fall well under the posted total. Sunday's 5-4 win by the Cardinals snapped a four-game streak which not only saw St. Louis fall under the total in every game, but they also scored and allowed three runs or less in all four of those contests.
San Francisco has also played in their share of low-scoring affairs this postseason. After blowing out Pittsburgh 8-0, they played five straight Unders where they scored 3 runs or less in each game, and allowed two runs or less in four of the five (allowed four runs once vs. Washington). Add in Lackey's career 3.00 ERA vs. the Giants and Hudson's seven shutout innings vs. the Cardinals in his lone 2014 meeting, and this one has all the makings of another pitcher's duel!
Bryan Power
Calgary vs. Nashville
Pick: Nashville
The Preds are off to a nice start, taking all of the available four points through two games so far. Tonight, they host a Calgary team that they've dominated recently here at home. They've won five in a row against the Flames on home ice winning five straight and outscored them 20-12 during the streak. Overall, they are 6-1-1 their last eight vs. the Flames, who have opened 1-2 and come off a 4-1 loss to St. Louis. Look for the home team to roll in this one.
Third period scoring has been a major reason for Nashville's success thus far. They have scored six goals in the final 20 minutes, beating Ottawa and Dallas by 3-2 and 4-1 scores respectively. Netminder Pekka Rinne hasn't had to work much as he's faced only 38 shots total. That average of only 19 per game is roughly half of what Calgary has allowed in their three games. You're simply not going to win very often in this league when you're allowing 37.3 shots per game.
Another major problem for the Flames is that they've already allowed five power play goals. Their penalty kill percentage of 54.5 percent is downright woeful. The news that center Sam Bennett will be out for 4-6 months after shoulder surgery isn't good either.
Wunderdog
San Jose @ Washington
Pick: San Jose -105
The San Jose Sharks have long been known to be nasty at The Shark Tank, where they are always a tough out. Last year they were a stronger presence on the road where they finished 22-15, on their way to a 111-point season. They are off to a 1-0 start on the season on the road, and are 2-0 overall. They have played perfect hockey through two games, scoring 7 goals, and have yet to allow a single one. San Jose has 15 of their next 19 games on the road, and they showed some grit on the road last season, and have started fast this year. San Jose won their only game here last year in a shootout, and going back to alst season, this team has been perfect when playing on a pair of days rest at 8-0 in their last eight. The Capsitals are just 1-5 at home in their last six dating back to last season, and the Sharks have dominated here at 9-1 in their last 10. Play on San Jose.
Alex Smith Sports
Oilers at Kings
Pick: Over 5
The Edmonton Oilers, fresh off a Shootout Loss to Vancouver, head into the states for a battle with the defending Stanley Cup Champs in Hollywood. The Kings finally notched their first victory of the early season with a 4-1 pummeling of the Winnipeg Jets, and now have to face a squad that has given them some tough battles over the last couple of seasons. While LA is still the better of the two clubs, Edmonton has made some strides to improve on offense, with 3 Power Play goals on 6 chances so far in 2 games. This total is a bit short in my opinion for a up-tempo team like the Oilers going against a possession club like LA who can fly when needed. I'm going to lay the price with Over 5.
Bob Balfe
Giants / Cardinals Over 7
Both pitchers are getting up there in age. Lackey has been brilliant in the last few weeks while Hudson has not. The Molina injury is big because it can allow the opponent to steal more bases and there is always the past ball that can advance runners. Molina probably can’t swing the bat so the cardinals starting him won’t be a great idea. The strike zone will be different and simply put not having your best catcher is a very big deal. Both teams do very well during the day and I think we are going to get another high scoring thriller. Take the OVER.
Kansas City Royals +105
Guthrie has been on fire pitching as of late while Chen has not. I don’t really care if Baltimore wins this game, but there is no reason at all to wager on them right now. It has nothing to do with them and everything to do with not messing with a team that is as high as it gets on the momentum cloud and it just seems like they are destined to win the World Series. We see this every year as teams just get every single bounce to go their way. Take the Royals.
Ian Cameron
San Jose at Washington
Play: Under 5.5
Totals of 5.5 involving the Washington Capitals these days are simply too high and are close to an “auto play” for me as a bettor. My clients and I cashed an under ticket in Washington's season opener against Montreal that yielded a 2-1 final. The Caps then shut out Boston 4-0 (total of 5) in their second game. This was a porous defensive team for years which is a big reason why Barry Trotz was selected as their new head coach. His teams are notorious for playing strong defensive hockey and keeping the puck out of the net. The total on tonight's game has been bumped back up to 5.5 largely because of the offensive potency of San Jose but Trotz's squad has clearly bought into playing defense at a high level which was a hallmark of his teams in Nashville. San Jose has scored 7 goals in their first two games against Winnipeg and Los Angeles but both games stayed under the total because the Sharks pitched shutouts. San Jose doesn't get enough credit for its defensive prowess and they’ll likely look to bring that same defensive mindset to this game as they go on the road for the first time this season. Both meetings last season stayed under the total including a 2-1 San Jose win in Washington. With both teams locking things down defensively early this season, there is no reason to expect anything different tonight.
Paul Bovi
UL Lafayette / Texas State Over 62.5
Last year ULL took care of Texas State by a score of 48-24. At the half ULL had piled up 360 yards to only 120 for Texas State. Terrance Broadway had 3 TD passes at the half while the Cajuns also had a rushing TD as well as a turnover on downs and a fumble. ULL just has more talent here, particularly on offense and a better defense. Look for ULL to get into the 40's once again and to come away with a 47 -34 win.
Vegas Butcher
San Francisco Giants -125
I’ve talked about his before, but Lackey has been a different pitcher at home than on the road since joining the Cards. At home (including the playoff game), he has a 2.2 ERA, 0.7 HR/9 rate, 5.8 K/BB rate, and a 3.0 SIERA. On the road, his ERA is 6.7, his HR/9 is 2.0, he only has a 2.1 K/BB rate, and a SIERA of 4.6. Those are some strong statistical differences. Lackey is primarily a fastball/slider pitcher, and Giants rank in the top-11 against both of those pitches. In addition, Lackey has a 4.5 ERA in day-games this year. I’ve spoke before about his decreased velocity late in the year and though he looked fine against the Dodgers, that could still come into play in these playoffs, possibly today on the road.
Opposite Lackey is Hudson, who also was tremendous in his first playoff start. The advantage for Hudson is that he’s a strong ground-ball pitcher, with a GB% mark of 53% this season. Hudson has also allowed only 2 HR’s in his last 29 innings pitched which is a crucial factor here. Cardinals rank 24th on the year in the GB/FB rate, one of the worst teams in the league. They already hit a lot of grounders, and now will be replacing Molina with Pierzynski in the lineup, which is a huge downgrade. Now let’s take a look at how St Louis has been scoring runs lately at home. Game 3 against LAD, they scored 3 runs, and all 3 were generated by hitting 2 HR’s. They clinched against the Dodgers in game 4, after Adams hit a 3-run HR off Kershaw, winning 3-2. They went scoreless against Bumgarner in game 1 against SFG. Then last game, they scored 5 runs, 4 of those coming on 4 solo HR’s. Out of their 11 runs scored in their last 4 games, 10 of those were due to the long-ball. Playing in San Francisco, during the day, the ball does not travel as well as it does at night. In addition, they’re facing a strong GB-pitcher who has a very good HR/9 rate on the year. I believe for the Cardinals to score runs today, they’ll have to rely on putting consecutive hits together instead of the long-ball like they did at home. With STL ranking 28th in ISO against right-handed pitchers and playing in a ballpark that ranks LAST in HR-rate (Park factor of 89 against the HR, 11% below an average ballpark) allowed, I don’t like their chances of scoring many runs today. St Louis is only 40-43 (-6.3U) on the road this year and 4-9 in their last 13 playoff road games. I like Giants’ chances in this one.
Jeff Scott Sports
BEST OF THE REST
UL Lafayette/ Texas State Under 64: The UL Lafayette offense has not been that strong this year, averaging just 24.6 ppg. including scoring just 12 ppg on the road, while Texas State has played good defense at home, allowing just 21.7 ppg so far this year at Bobcat Stadium. Now I know that UL Lafayette allows 45 ppg on the road and Texas State scores 40.3 ppg at home, but I just don't see that happening in this one. Lafayette did allow that 45 ppg on the road to Ole Miss and Boise State, while Texas State has piled up their home numbers vs Ark- Pine Bluff, Navy and Idaho. These teams are not like what they have faced at home yet or on the road. They are much closer in talent, plus both teams do run the ball allot, which will keep the clock moving. This game should be played in the 50's at best with a final that looks some thing like 30-27.
SPORTS WAGERS
KANSAS CITY +102 over Baltimore
Yesterday, the Royals were a small favorite. The game was rained out and for whatever reason the market somehow thinks that benefits the Orioles. Maybe it does (although that’s not logical), but in sticking to playing value in these extremely close and riveting games, we’re thrilled to be taking back any tag on these red-hot Royals right now against lefthander Wei-Yin Chen. Chen had a rough outing in the ALDS, allowing seven hits and five earned runs in just 3.2 innings. He also surrendered two bombs in that game. Chen has now allowed 27 hits and 14 runs over his last 20 innings. Last September he had a 5.12 ERA and in 2012 he went 0-3 with a 5.90 ERA in September. Are we seeing a pattern here? These Japanese pitchers are not used to throwing nearly 200 innings in six months. Chen pitched professionally in the Nippon Pro Baseball league in Japan from 2004 until 2011. Pitching pro ball in Japan for seven years, Chen threw an average of 160 innings per year over an average of 25 starts per year during the eight month long baseball season. In MLB over the past four years, Chen threw 192 innings in 2012, 137 innings in 2013 after an oblique strain cost him two months and he’s already thrown 190 innings this year. It’s equivalent to putting a racehorse in a 1 mile race after he’s been running in six furlong races for 7 years. Chen has labored badly through three Septembers and one October start. Chen’s xERA ever since he’s been an Oriole is 4.41, good for 97th in baseball, between Tommy Milone and Kyle Kendrick. He’s a soft tosser with great control that gives up way too many fly-balls and line-drives. Chen also had a pedestrian 8% swing and miss rate. Lastly, current Royals have 41 hits in 129 career AB’s versus Chen for a BA of .318. They’ve also taken him deep six times with Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer taking him yard twice each.
Jeremy Guthrie threw another 200+ innings of few walks or Ks. Judging from his ERA and hit % history, only good fortune can nudge his ERA under 4.00. Two things he excels at: eating innings and generating work for defenders behind him and that’s fine with us. Guthrie will throw in the occasional gem and it’s also worth noting that his pitching IQ has been called one of the best in the game. Guthrie allowed one run or less in five of his last seven starts. Over that span he posted a 63% groundball rate and overall his groundball rate was near 50%. Unlike Chen, Guthrie has been pitching 200 plus innings a season for years. Guthrie’s chance for success here is at least as good as or even better than Chen’s chance for success, especially when you consider that current Orioles have just 48 hits in 224 career AB’s against Guthrie for a BA of .214 and that this park is much bigger than Camden Yards, which absolutely does not benefit the O’s.
Note: Regarding the NLCS, the loss of Yadier Molina is a huge one for the Cardinals that is going to prevent us from stepping in here, as St. Louis will now be forced to use either Tony Cruz or A.J. Pierzynski. Pierzynski and John Lackey have a history together during their time with the Red Sox so one would assume that Pierzynski is likely to start. That would leave 2 bats out of the nine in the order that are almost sure outs and neither of those guys can call a game like Molina can.
SPORTS WAGERS
Calgary +156 over NASHVILLE
OT included. The Predators are coming off a near flawless game against the Stars on Saturday night in a dominating 4-1 victory. Despite falling behind 1-0, the Preds came out strong and they finished strong by scoring the last four goals, carrying the play the entire night and outshooting the Stars, 33-18. Big game, big effort and a very nice victory. We played the Stars that night as a small pooch and were quite impressed with Nashville so it would be very easy to come right back on the Preds here against a much weaker opponent. Thing is, we made that mistake on Saturday when we played Dallas after the Stars had a very similar effort against Chicago in their season opener. Despite losing, Dallas played an exhilarating game from the opening faceoff and had it not been for Cory Crawford, Dallas may have won that game by three or four goals. We should have expected a serious drop off in intensity from Dallas and that is a lesson learned. This situation for the Preds is very similar. They are now 2-0 and played with a huge amount of intensity on Saturday. The Preds have the Blackhawks on deck and we are very likely to see a serious drop off in their intensity here after two strong efforts to open the year. The Preds could very easily take this opponent lightly and get caught napping. Furthermore, Nashville has only allowed 38 shots on net in two games combined so Pekka Rinne really hasn’t been tested yet this year but that, too could change here.
Calgary is precisely the type of big dog that is worth backing in these situations. They are a hard-working and relentless bunch that just never quits. The Flames are 1-2 but of the 10 goals they have allowed, five of them have occurred when they were a man short. An improvement on the penalty kill combined with the type of effort we can expect from the Flames and what we have is a very live dog in a favorable situation at a good price.
New Jersey +108 over TAMPA BAY
OT included. When it’s all said and done, the Bolts may just be this year’s representative for the East in the Cup finals. Tampa is sound from top to bottom with as much talent as any team in the conference. That said, the Bolts played last night against the Habs and buried them 7-1. We pointed out how badly the Lightning wanted that game after Montreal knocked them out of last year’s first round and they responded. There are no scores to settle here and what follows an intense game with huge motivation is usually a much lesser effort. The Bolts are also using Evgeni Nabokov in net and in a unfavorable spot with that that guy in goal, we’ll take our chances with the dog almost every time. Nabokov is a huge liability every time he’s between the pipes.
The “offensively challenged” Devils have scored 11 times in two games. They are rested, confident and raring to go. Cory Schneider is no longer playing in the shadow of Martin Brodeur or Roberto Luongo and for the first time in his career, he’s going to play the large majority of games. The Devils are playing their usual style of great defense, great speed and taking advantage of the opposition’s mistakes. In their opener against Philadelphia, the Devils had a 3-0 lead late in the second period. The Flyers scored three quick goals just before the period ended. Take away those four minutes of hockey late in the second period of its first game of the year and New Jersey would have outscored its first two opponents, 11-2. The Devils were high on our radar to begin the year and nothing has changed. Now playing a team using its weak backup goaltender and coming off an emotional win, the Devils come in here with a great chance to keep it rolling and that’s how we’ll play it.
Colorado -½ +165 over TORONTO
Regulation only. We could take back +104 and include OT but we like the value in playing the dog to win in regulation and will be playing a lot more of that this season than we have in past seasons. The Maple Leafs are coming off a very nice victory in New York at MSG but we’re not going to put a lot of emphasis on that game because the Rangers were extremely flat and Henrik Lundqvist looked brutally awful….again. What we know for sure is that the Leafs are 0-2 at home and that they’re much tenser at the ACC than they are on the road. In the six periods that they’ve played in Toronto, the Leafs were on their heels in five of them and things don’t figure to get any easier here.
Colorado picked up its first win of the season yesterday afternoon in Boston in a game they were clearly the better team in. The Avs have now played Boston once and Minnesota twice and take a significant step down in class here. Most prognosticators pegged the Avs for a regression this year after a big season last year. Truth is, analytics or advanced stats did not like the Avs last season but we’re not buying the regression part in terms of their ability. Indeed the Avs may end up with fewer points than last year but that doesn’t mean their performance on the ice will fall off. What we see is a team loaded with offensive talent that can absolutely dazzle at times. Matt Duchene and Nathan MacKinnon are sick talents but it doesn’t stop there. Colorado can mix, match and score with any team in this league and then some. Defensively, the Avs figure to improve with Tyson Barrie (he’s another great talent) now having three years of exposure and just over 100 games played in his young career. Erik Johnson and Brad Stuart add experience and stability while second year man, Nick Holden had a very decent rookie campaign and he, too, figures to be better with a year under his belt. These Avs are still hungry, they’re motivated and they are several class levels above the Maple Leafs. We’re buyers.
N.Y. Islanders +112 over N.Y. RANGERS
The Islanders may end up being this year’s most improved team. Offense has never been a problem for this talented group and that offense looks even more potent this year with Brock Nelson and Mikhail Grabovski added to the mix. The problem in years past has been defense and goaltending and the Islanders addressed those two areas very aggressively. They traded for Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy just before the start of the year. Griffin Reinhart is a nice looking rookie who has not looked a bit out of place. In net, the Isles parted ways with that stiff Evgeni Nabokov and upgreaded with Jaroslav Halak. The Islanders got a break in the schedule with two games against the Hurricanes to open up the year, which allowed them to fine tune their game a bit, while seeing where all the newcomers fit it. This is an extremely dangerous team.
The Rangers are 1-2 and have looked progressively worse with each passing game. They were awful against the Maple Leafs but figure to be much better tonight but it’s still likely not going to be enough. New York is up against it with an offense that can’t keep up with the other offensive forces in the conference. Defensively, the Rangers are in decent shape but they are also spending too much time in their own end because the offense cannot sustain pressure. Furthermore, Henrik Lundqvist has been on a three-year decline and this year it looks even more serious. Lundqvist has an unorthodox style of playing deep in the net and while he got away with it in the past because of outstanding reflexes, those reflexes slow down with age and there is nothing “King” Henrik can do about it. The media keeps saying how great he is but let us correct that right now. He was great in his prime six years ago. He’s no longer great, he’s now just a below average goaltender way past his prime and the first few games are not an aberration. Rangers are overpriced and way overvalued and we’re on it.
Vegas Butcher
Royals/Orioles Under 7
The total in the first two games of this series was 7 each time, and the two teams scored 14 and then 10 runs. You’d think that with game 3 pitchers on the mound the Bookmakers would set this one a bit higher, but of course the sharp money didn’t allow that to happen. The total opened at 7.5 yesterday and of course the game was rained out. It opened again at 7.5 for today’s game, but by morning the juice was already heavily favoring the UNDER and the Bookmakers had to drop this one to 7 as well. So what’s the story here? Well, the series moves from Camden Yards, the 4th most HR-friendly ballpark in all of baseball to Kauffman Field, the 7th least HR-friendly one. In addition, the weather is supposed to be in the high-50’s for this one and dropping, while the wind is blowing in at over 15 MPH. A spacious park, cool weather, and a fairly decent-strength wind creates a scenario where runs could be hard to come by. In the first two games of this series, the Royals hit 4 HR’s while Orioles hit 1. The Royals were last in the league with 95 HR’s hit in 162 games, and now all of a sudden they’re turning into a power team in the playoffs? I highly doubt it. Small sample size and HR-friendly Camden Yards has a lot to do with this. I think tonight we will see the first low-scoring game of this series. Keep in mind that both teams have the #1 and #2 ranked fielding units, in addition to top-10 bullpens. Both pens are fully rested with having 2 days off and you can expect all key relievers to be sharp tonight. The UNDER will come down to the starters in this one. Chen is on a bounce-back after a poor outing in his first playoff start and he’ll be facing a KC team whose left-handed hitters have all been crucial so far in these playoffs: Aoki, Hosmer, Gordon, and Moustakas. Chen has a very strong 3.2 FIP (#47 out of 171 starters) against left-handed hitters this year. If he controls KC’s lefties, he should be able to work around their right-handed batters. On the other side we have Guthrie, who similar to Chen, has been much better against righties (3.5 FIP) than left-handers (4.3 FIP). In addition, Guthrie’s best pitch this year has been his ‘changeup’ a pitch that he’s been increasing in usage due to its effectiveness. The O’s rank 23rd against the pitch and that’s part of the reason why Guthrie has a 2.7 ERA and 1.2 WHIP against them over the last few years. Both starters are well rested and I expect both to throw well tonight. I anticipate a low scoring game 3.