Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, October 15

Jim Feist's Free Pick

CF (301) UL - LAFAYETTE VS (302) WESTERN KENTUCKY

Take: Your free pick for Tuesday, October 15th, 2013, comes in the Sun Belt as Louisiana Lafayette and Western Kentucky battle. Louisiana Lafayette opened the season with losses to SEC and Big 12 teams, but since then they have won 3 in a row. The Ragin' Cajuns are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games. This offense is outstanding with perfect balance, 38.8 ppg with over 215 yard rushing and passing per contest. This team has a pair of running backs averaging over 6 yards per carry and junior QB Terrance Broadway has 10 TDs, 4 picks. Lafayette won last year's game, 31-27, but really dominated play with 587 yards (324 rushing). Terrance Broadway threw for 258 yards and ran one in with 38 seconds left to help Louisiana-Lafayette rally and beat Western Kentucky 31-27 as Broadway completed 23 of 33 passes. The Ragin' Cajuns are 10-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. They match up evenly with a Western Kentucky team and both squads will be motivated for this key Sun Belt clash, so grab the dog. Play (301) Louisiana Lafayette.

Ray Monohan

Western Kentucky -4.5

Before the season started I was high on ULL. I thought they might be a sleeper in the Sun Belt but now I am not so sure, especially after their performance at Akron, where the barely got away with the victory.

They have yet to cover in a road game this season and are visiting a team that hasn’t lost at home featuring a super balanced offense that will test the ULL “D” and then some.

Once the Hilltoppers get the lead they can grind out the game with Antonio Andrews, the second leading rusher in the nation. Don’t forget WKU’s Bobby Petrino knows how to coach.

Art Aronson

Ottawa Senators vs. Phoenix Coyotes
Play: Ottawa Senators +126

The visiting Senators come off a 1-4 loss to the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday. Bobby Ryan scored the lone goal for the Senators who were outshot 56-31 on the night. Robin Lehner made 45 saves after taking over for Craig Anderson who was pulled after allowing two goals on nine shots. The Phoenix Coyotes come off a fairly good of a road trip finishing up a 5-3 win over the Carolina Hurricanes. Rob Klinkhammer had two goals while Shane Doan had a goal and an assist in the loss. Mike Smith made 31 saves in the win. Ottawa was embarrassed in Anaheim and have just one win this season. Coach Paul McLean who was coach of the year last year in the NHL had some real choice words for this team after the loss. I fully expect the team to come out desperate and prepared to win this game. The Senators are 13-11 after losses by two goals or more. I look for the Phoenix to suffer a bit of a letdown after such a long road trip. Take Ottawa with plus money.

Bruce Marshall

San Jose vs. St. Louis
Pick: Over

Pucks are flying in the net with games involving these two, as undefeated San Jose and St. Louis are first and second in the league with 4.80 and 4.75 goals per game Pucks are flying in the net with games involving these two, as undefeated San Jose and St. Louis are first and second in the league with 4.80 and 4.75 goals per game, respectively. For the Blues, David Backes and Alexander Steen have also combined for three of six power play goals on 16 chances, a league-leading 37.5 percent success rate. Meanwhile, the Sharks have a club-record 24 goals through their first five contests. And 19-year-old rookie phenom Tomas Hertl scored his league-leading seventh goal in a 3-2 home victory over Ottawa on Saturday (he's expected to be available tonight after leaving the game vs. the Senators with injury).

JR O'Donnell

Pittsburgh -1.5 +125

Love him or hate him the Kid from Pittsburgh can put the bisket in the basket... lay the -1.5 goals as the Edmonton Oilers will struggle mightily vs the Pens.. We faded the OILERS last night and Now again tonight . in 6 games these Oilers have given up 29 goals, the most in the League UGLY!

Denver Money

Canadiens / Jets Over 5.5

Montreal is clearly an under team and the Jets themselves have gone 2-4 to the under but I have watched both of these teams play this year and have seen both of them capable of scoring and giving up goals. These teams are both ranked 9th in scoring with 17 goals scored while the Jets have allowed 16 goals and the Canadiens have allowed 10. Montreal ranks 7th on the power play this year with the Jets are ranked 16th on the kill. On the flip side Jets are 20th on the power play at 18.5% with the Habs at 11th in the kill. We should see a few power plays tonight and a few goals off them as well.

Montreal has taken 8 of the last 10 games between these teams and that could very well continue tonight, but I am not 100% sold on Montreal just yet here. Price is confirmed in the net tonight so can he finally get back to the Price we saw 2 years ago?

EZWINNERS.

Louisiana Lafayette +4

IAfter two losses to start the season at Arkansas and Kansas State, the Sun Belt pre-season favorite Ragin' Cajuns have reeled off three straight wins over Nicholls State, Akron and Texas State. Western Kentucky opened the season under new head coach Bobby Petrino with a big win over in state rival Kentucky, but then dropped back to back games against Tennessee and South Alabama before going on their current three game winning streak. The Hilltoppers are a young team and led by Senior running back Antonio Andrews who will be playing on Sunday's next year. Andrews is a beast who had 342 yards and three touchdowns in the last two meetings between these teams, but ULL counters Andrews with a big playmaker of their own in quarterback Terrance Broadway. Broadway is a dual threat that lit up the Hilltoppers for 258 passing yards and 145 rushing yards in the last meeting between these two teams that was a ULL 31-27 victory. This game should be another shoot out that could come down the wire so I will gladly take the points with a Ragin' Cajun's team that has the top quarterback in the Sun Belt. ULL is 10-2 against the spread in their last twelve games against a team with a winning record and I look for that success to continue.

Dave Mathews

Tigers vs. Red Sox
Play: Under

Boston was nearly no-hit by Anibal Sanchez on Saturday. On Sunday, Max Scherzer dominated them for seven innings, allowing just one run. Then they rocked Joaquin Benoit. Justin Verlander will go nine and throw 130 pitches if he has to. Verlander has been unhittable as of late. He's given up no runs, yes no runs in his last four starts. John Lackey has allowed just five runs in two starts against Detroit this season. He wasn't great in his last start against Tampa Bay but overall, he's been the most consistent pitcher for Boston this year. He's going to have to pitch his best game to keep up with Verlander.

Dave Cokin

Montreal at Winnipeg
Play: Montreal

Carey Price was the nuts on Saturday as he led the Canadiens to an impressive win at Vancouver. The Habs have now won two straight, and would love to end this four-game all-Canada trip on a high note.

Winnipeg should also take the ice with plenty of enthusiasm tonight. The Jets pitched a shutout on Monday against New Jersey, and they did a great job of pounding the Devils physically at every opportunity. Big Dustin Byfuglien was particularly sharp throughout the game, and the Jets got a big effort from backup goalie Al Montoya, who pitched his second career shutout in the process.

From a scheduling standpoint, this isn’t bad for Winnipeg. They’re at home for a third straight game while the Habs are finishing off a quartet of road tilts. But there are a couple of better reasons I like the visitors tonight.

Carey Price is a goalie who can get extremely hot at times, and he was at his best in the win at Vancouver. Make no mistake, Price wants that starting gig with the Olympic team and I think he looks upon games against fellow Canadian teams as being huge in terms of making the best impression possible. Price also has a great history over the last few years against this opponent, with a stellar 7-1-1 slate in his last nine starts.

I expect Ondrej Pavelec to be back in the cage for the Jets tonight. Montoya probably earned another start with the shutout, but Pavelec is their horse and he almost never misses a start, much less two straight. He’s been coming out second best in those head to head duels with Price, so maybe the Jets ought to start Montoya tonight, but I doubt they will.

The Habs will also have captain Brian Gionta back this evening. Gionta had to go back home over the weekend due to what was reportedly a serious family illness, but his return provides an additional lift to the team.

The Canadiens are not the most physical bunch in the NHL and I can see them having issues with teams that bang them around. That’s the style the Jets utilized to beat the Devils, but it’s not really their usual modus operandi. I’ll be very interested to see if they can maintain that grinder effort tonight, but to be honest, that would surprise me somewhat.

Mostly, this is a play on Price. He was scintillating last game, and he is a goalie that can carry a team when he’s got it rolling. The price here is very playable, so I’ll spot it with the Canadiens tonight.

Jeffrey Brandes

UL Lafayette / Western Kentucky Over 62½

Key Trends:
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are 8-2-0 O/U As Home Favorite (All Lines)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are 3-0-0 O/U vs. UL Lafayette (All Lines)
UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns are 3-0-0 O/U vs. Western Kentucky (All Lines)

Tony George

Detroit -150

Boston needed Big Papi (David Ortiz) in the bottom of the 8th to hit a grand slam in Game 2 just to tie the game after Detroit dominated on Sunday for 8 innings before the Red Sox won it in the 9th by a run. Max Scherzer had a no hitter through 5 2/3 innings striking out 13 hitters along the way. The bats for Boston have been inconsistent and right now the better team in this series is Detroit after splitting a pair at Fenway to open up the ALCS.

Justin Veerlander gets the start after a dominating performance against the A’s, putting them out of the playoffs in unreal fashion. I cannot go against him with an impressive ERA in the playoffs under a 1, and while he is only 6-7 at home, his ERA there is still 3.73 on the season, and while he hit a rare funk this year in the regular season, his skills and prowess are apparent in the post season with his vast post season experience.

John Lackey is a solid pitcher for the Red Sox, but I honestly feel the bats of Detroit provide the run support and winning edge in this game as Boston is hitting right handers as a team in their last 5 games at a paltry .173 at the plate, and that will not get it done against a red hot Veerlander. This should be a low scoring affair, however the run support, home field, and hot pitcher with the bats behind him are in Detroits side of the ledger tonight, thus the oddsmakers have made it a stretch play on the moneyline at -150, and a price I am willing to play for a Detroit Win.

LT Profits

Boston vs Detroit
Pick : Under 7

Runs could be hard to come by in Game 3 of the ALCS when Justin Verlander and the Detroit Tigers host John Lackey and the Boston Red Sox. After having an off year by his lofty standards, Verlander has become unhittable again while rediscovering his old Cy Young form just in the nick of time over his last four starts. Verlander has tossed 27 scoreless innings over those four starts while allowing just 15 hits with an insane ratio of 43 strikeouts vs. five walks, striking out at least 10 each time! Do not sleep on Lackey though as his 11-13 record was a huge disservice considering his 3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 161 strikeouts vs. 40 walks. Lackey was also two for two in Quality Starts vs. Detroit allowing a total of five runs in 14.1 innings. The ‘under’ is 10-3 in the Tigers’ last 13 games overall.

UL Lafayette vs Western Kentucky
Pick : UL Lafayette +4.5

This could be the biggest game of the year in the Sun Belt Conference with the winner between the UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers having the inside track toward the conference title. These teams have nearly identical stats defensively vs. both the run and the pass and they also have similar numbers in rushing offense, so this game could very well be decided by quarterback play. ULL appears to have the edge there with second-year starter Terrance Broadway, who has completed 65.6 percent of his passes while passing for 1153 yards on an excellent 8.8 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns passes vs. four interceptions while adding four more touchdowns on the ground. Meanwhile, Young Western Kentucky quarterback Brandon Doughty is a pocket passer with an ugly 10 interceptions vs. just seven touchdown throws. UL Lafayette is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games.

Wunderdog

Ottawa at Phoenix
Pick: Ottawa +125

Ottawa certainly drew the short straw in terms of early season scheduling as they open with their first six games all on the road. They stand at 1-2-2 and a win tonight in Phoenix would make for a respectable road trip, with four of their next five on home ice. Phoenix started with a win at home, and fared well in their next five on the road, coming away with three wins. Ottawa looks to be in a bad spot as this is their third game in four nights, but they are a perfect 4-0 in their last four in this scenario. The Coyotes have had their problems when coming home after a long road trip of seven days or more, where they are just 5-11 in their last 16. Ottawa should be motivated to even-up their road trip in its final game, and have taken 9 of the last 12 vs. the Coyotes. Take Ottawa.

SPORTS WAGERS

PHILADELPHIA +102 over Vancouver

Regulation only. We normally don’t like to back a team that is struggling to score goals but the Flyers are close to breaking out of this thing. Philadelphia has just one win in six tries but they’ve clearly been the better team in three straight games and that includes its most recent game in Detroit on Saturday night. The Flyers are creating scoring chances and when that happens it’s only a matter of time before some pucks start to find the back of the net. We also want to point out the return of Philadelphia defenseman Erik Gustafsson. He’s only played 58 games over the past two years and returned to the lineup in the Flyers last game in Detroit. This guy makes a huge difference on Philadelphia’s blueline. He moves the puck out efficiently and smartly and has a wicked shot that can only benefit the Flyers power-play. The Flyers now have three quality puck-moving defensemen feeding the puck to a slew of goal scorers. There is no way this team is going to be held to such low goal totals moving forward. The Flyers are not a 1-5 team and they are not showing any demoralizing signs in regards to their poor start. One win does wonders for a club and we’re suggesting the Flyers get that win here.

The Canucks are 3-3 but probably deserve better after running into a super-hot Carey Price on Saturday night. Still, they lost that game 4-1 and their three wins have come against New Jersey, Calgary and Edmonton with the former two both occurring in OT. In six games, Vancouver has one regulation win. To make matters worse, the Canucks will be without Alex Burrows and Alexander Edler here, the latter after he was suspended for going goon on Tomas Hertl’s head. That’s typical Canuck hockey. Get this team frustrated and they melt down quickly and quietly and it’s been that way for years. The Canucks are wrongly favored on the road here because of Philadelphia’s 1-5 record. In reality, the Canucks record is not much better, as they could have easily lost two OT games and be 1-5 as well. The Canucks have also played five home games and one road game in Calgary so that record is even more disturbing. Wrong side favored.

Minnesota/TORONTO Over 5½

The Maple Leafs are winning games at a great pace but it’s not because of their sound defensive play. The Leafs are winning because they are scoring a lot of goals and getting outstanding goaltending by Jonathan Bernier. The acquisition of Bernier may end being the most important one of all for the Leafs because he’s been that good. However, James Reimer gets the call here and he’s simply not the same caliber as Bernier. Furthermore, the 88 scoring chances the Maple Leafs have allowed is more than any other team in the NHL. The next closest team has allowed 60 and that’s just an example of the mess the Maple Leafs are defensively. With Bernier in net, this total would be exactly the same and that’s something we can take advantage of.

Minnesota plays its third game in four nights here after playing in Buffalo last night. No question the Wild will be jacked up to play in Toronto but a tired team is prone to mistakes and the Maple Leafs offense is one that can strike often. The Wild are also forced to go with their backup goaltender, Josh Harding again because Backstrom is still on the rack. This 40-year-old goaltender probably hasn’t played three games in four nights in five years. It’s actually tempting to play the Wild taking back +125 here because the Leafs winning percentage is unsustainable with the amount of scoring chances they allow. But Minnesota is playing three in four and that’s a low win-percentage situation that we usually look to avoid. However, the total is one that is beatable with two backups in net, one tired team and one team that scores plenty and gives up a ton of scoring chances.

San Jose +114 over ST. LOUIS

OT included. Both clubs are undefeated and both have been dominating in all their wins but there is a difference between the two clubs. San Jose is a freight train right now with an offense that is producing more scoring chances than any team in the NHL by a wide margin. The Sharkies have applied relentless pressure on every defense they faced so far, outshooting teams by unheard of margins. Against Phoenix, New York Rangers and Ottawa, the Sharks have outshot that trio by margins of 51-23, 47-20 and 50-23, respectively. That’s hard to ignore. Additionally, San Jose has scored four goals or more in four of its five wins and has not allowed more than two goals in any game. Overall, the Sharkies have outscored the opposition 24-7.

The Blue Notes are also scoring goals with 19 in four games while allowing just seven. However, three of their four wins came against Nashville, the Rangers and Florida. Combined, that trio has scored 31 total goals in 16 games and they have a combined five wins in 16 games. Still, a win is a win and the Blues, who are not responsible for their soft schedule, have taken care of business with relative ease. St. Louis also defeated the Blackhawks and they are always a tough out in their own house. However, no team in the NHL has looked stronger than the Sharks and until we see something different, they are an instant play when taking back a tag and that certainly applies here.

Columbus +117 over DETROIT

OT included. Good spot for the Jackets, as they come in as the more rested team, having been off since Saturday while the Red Wings will play their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs after defeating the Bruins in Boston yesterday afternoon. The Red Wings have now won two in a row but what stands out to us is this small tag on Detroit. In previous years, when Columbus went into Detroit, they were always taking back +140 or better (usually much better) and it’s not like the Jackets have shot out of the gate this season. This low line on the popular Red Wings against a team that has fed on the bottom for years is rather curious. Detroit played its best game of the year yesterday in Boston and we’re not sure if Boston was just flat or the Red Wings were sharp. However, it was just one game and we’ve seen the Red Wings get pushed around in at least three others. Detroit has enough elite talent to win games but this team is becoming an age nightmare with their players either being on the decline of their careers or too young to be of any value yet. That can’t be good in a three in four situation like the one here after a hard fought win yesterday. Detroit’s loyalty to players is starting to be a serious hindrance because now they have to figure out what to do with Dan (dead weight) Cleary. And what about the talent void on defense? The d-core is relatively unimpressive past Niklaus Kronwall. Are Jakub Kindl and Kyle Quincey really bothering anyone on the opposition? We think not. Jonathan Ericsson is a mistake waiting to happen every time he touches the puck. The Red Wings will have some great games this season but they are also going to have more awful ones than they’ve had in years. Picking the right spot to go against Detroit has huge profit potential and we trust this is one of those spots.

The Jackets ended the year on a tear, winning 11 of their last 14 games and going 19-5-3 in their final 27. They missed the playoffs by a mere point but there’s good news: it’s a new year, and they’ve taken that same roster, tweaked it a little and they are better this season. Marian Gaborik might be the most electric player to ever wear a Blue Jackets jersey and he’s been tearing it up early with six points in four games. Mark Letestu is coming off a career year and, they’re no longer a one-man show as they were in the Rick Nash days. They have pure skill in big man Artem Anisimov, they have grindy skill in Brandon Dubinsky and RJ Umberger and they finally have young skill too. Boone Jenner could be a huge asset for this team and Ryan Johansen already is. Speaking of young assets, the number two overall pick in the 2012 draft behind Nail Yakupov, Ryan Murray, is back from his shoulder surgery and is looking better each game. And that’s to compliment the likes of an already rock-solid group with the offensively gifted Jack Johnson, the hard-hitting James Wisniewski, and the underrated Fedor Tyutin. The Jackets are a live pooch here in a favorable spot. The line says so.

Ottawa +129 over PHOENIX

OT included. We’re going to go this Senator well one more time before backing off for a bit should they lose this one. Ottawa is coming off the two worst back-to-back games that they’ve played in years, having lost to San Jose 3-2 but being outshot 50-23, followed by a 4-1 drubbing by the Ducks in a game they were outshot 56-31. Coach Paul MacLean has to be steaming over that lack of effort and there is no way it will be tolerated again here. The Senators are a team built on structure, discipline and hard work and they have shown none of that over its past 2½ games. The Senators are healthier than they’ve ever been and there are no excuses for this talented group to come up lame again here. Instead, the Sens figure to come out in a serious foul mood and give it everything they have in this, their final game of a seven-game trip.

The Coyotes are looking good with three successive wins on the road over Detroit, Philly and Carolina. However, the Coyotes return home from a tough five-game trip and that’s almost always a vulnerable spot. We certainly like the Coyotes style and the value they offer up as a pooch. As a significant favorite returning home from a road trip, Phoenix does not come close to offering up that same value. The home team playing in an unfavorable scheduling spot against a team that has been humiliated in back-to-back starts is the perfect recipe for an upset and that’s the way we’re going to play it.