Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, October 18

John Ryan

Florida International at Arkansas St.
Prediction: Florida International

5* graded play on Florida International as they take on Arkansas State in a big Sun Belt Conference showdown set to start at 8:00 PM ET Tuesday. Both teams enter this fray with identical 4-2 overall records. Florida International is 1-1 and Arkansas State is 2-0 in Sun Belt competition. The winner of this game takes a big step forward toward Sun Belt Championship contention and bowl eligibility. Arkansas State is a pass happy offense ranking 15th in the FBS rankings gaining 303.5 yards per game. They also rank a solid 68th gaining 140.7 rushing yards per game, 61st scoring 28.7 points per game and 32nd allowing 21.2 points per game for the season. The Florida International Golden Panthers run a more balanced offense attack ranking 43rd in the FBS rankings gaining 248.7 yards per pass, 58th gaining 156.0 rushing yards per game, 67th scoring 27.8 points per game and 32nd allowing 21.2 points per game on the season. The Golden Panthers need this win even more than the Red Wolves having already lost to conference leader Louisiana-Lafayette, who sport a 4-0 conference record and are 6-1 overall. With a win over the Red wolves combined with a Red Wolves loss November12 gives them a very significant tie breaker and the potential to be tied with Louisiana-Lafayette. This is pure speculation, but we are now entering the second half of the season and every conference game has a dramatic affect on how the season ends for each team. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Golden Panthers will lose this game by three or fewer points and has a strong opportunity to win the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 86-43 using the money line for 67% winners and has made 37.5 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play on a road team using the money line with a good offense averaging 5.8 or more yards per play and after outgaining previous opponents by 125 or more total yards in two consecutive games. The Golden Panthers lost at home to Duke 31-27 and were installed as 3 ? point favorites. Despite losing this game they outgained Duke by an unimaginable 184 offensive yards. They had just one turnover to none for Duke. In their last game they defeated Akron in a road tilt 27-17 and failed to cover as 17 point favorites. In this game they outgained the Zips by 255 offensive yards. Here again, turnovers were not a factor with each team posting two turnovers apiece. Here is a second system that has gone 42-24 for 64% winners making 31.2 units per one unit wagered since 2005. The average play has been a +132 DOG. Play on a road team using the money line off a double digit road win in games played in October. As noted the Golden Panthers defeated Akron 27-27 for a 10 point win. Arkansas State did very well defending the run in their last game at Louisiana-Monroe allowing just 69 rushing yards on 37 attempts. This, however is not good news for them as they are a near imperfect 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. Simulator shows a high probability that Florida International will hold Arkansas State to 28 or fewer points. This is important to note as the Golden Panthers are money burners in high scoring affairs. Over the past three seasons they are just 3-12 ATS when allowing 28 or more points in a game. Take Florida International.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets

Good value here on the road team, who just took the 1st game of a 'home and home' w/ the Blue Jackets 4-2 on Saturday. Note that Columbus is not only winless in five games this season (just 1 point), but they are also 4-21 off a road loss the last three seasons. They have scored exactly two goals in all five games thus far. Dallas has won three straight and four of five this season and just looks like a much better team, particularly w/ G Lehtonen in net and his league leading .955 save percentage.

Play on: Dallas

Jim Feist

Hurricanes at Bruin
Play: Under 5.5

The Bruins won the Stanley Cup last season with a sometimes shaky offense, but the defense was sensational. That has carried over to this season, as their main problems are on offense. At least they face a team that is struggling, too, on offense as Carolina has 13 goals in 5 games. The Under is 5-2-1 in the Hurricanes last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Boston is on a 6-0 run under the total and the under is 4-1 in the Bruins last 5 home games. And when these teams meet the games are usually low scoring, as the under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between them. Play the Hurricanes/Bruins under the total.

David Chan

New York Rangers @ Vancouver Canucks
PICK: Vancouver Canucks

I bet value where I see it and expect the Canucks to hammer the visiting Rangers tonight.

New York is 0-1-2 to start the year and faces a 2-2-1 Vancouver team that's yet to in its own barn.

The Canucks will welcome the return of reigning Selke Trophy winner Ryan Kesler to the line-up tonight:

“My hip is 100 percent,” said Kesler. “… I expect big things from myself.”

After a slow start to the year, the Vancouver power-play got goals from Henrik Sedin and two from Sami Salo in Saturday's 4-3 win at Edmonton.

That's bad news for a Rangers team that enters this game amongst the league leaders in penalty minutes per contest (they took 8-penalties in Saturday's 4-2 setback to the Islanders).

Roberto Luongo is scheduled between the pipes for the home side and he'll look to get back on track against a team he's enjoyed plenty of success against in the past, going 2-0-0 with a 1.50 GAA in two starts vs. New York.

I believe this will be a lop-sided affair; consider a second look at the Canucks tonight!

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia -½ +100 over Ottawa

For those that don’t have the option of laying -½ +100, the recommendation is to play the three-way betting option (-110), which is essentially the exact same thing. There is always the possibility of a team “taking a night off” in a game that they’re supposed to win but this one actually sets up nicely for the Flyers. Philly has a horrible history at this venue with just six regulation wins over the past 31 times they’ve played here. That’s serious and don’t think for a second that they’re not aware of that. Ottawa has iced some extremely talented teams over the years but this year they’re going to be hard pressed to win 25 games. This is really a great chance for the Flyers to put this proverbial monkey to rest. Additionally, Philly is coming off a loss, not a win so they should be more motivated after a loss, as oppose to coming off four straight wins. The Sens have one win in five tries. In three of their losses they allowed five, six and seven goals respectively. They’ll also be without Sergei Gonchar, Bobby Butler and they’re forced to use backup goalie Alex Auld after Craig Anderson left to deal with some personal issues. If this one loses, so be it, but it sets up nice for the far superior club. Play: Philadelphia -½ +100 (Risking 2 units).

Florida +193 over WASHINGTON

The Panthers will play its third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs but there’s a big difference between playing when you’re winning and playing when you’re losing. Florida is coming off back-to-back wins over the Lightning. They’ve now won three of their first four games and they’re likely going to give a little extra tonight in support of a rookie goaltender (Jacob Markstrom) making his NHL debut. The Panthers are a confident bunch that ripped off five power-play goals last night and can’t wait to get back on the ice tonight. The Capitals are a misleading 4-0 out of the gate and what that does is set up a sweet take-back against them. In their last game, Washington edged the Sens 2-1 after everyone else was blowing Ottawa away. The Caps won 3-2 in OT against Pittsburgh last Thursday in a game they were dominated in. Pittsburgh should have won that game by four goals. Against Tampa Bay, a team that is clearly not right, the Caps beat them 6-5 in OT. Finally, they beat Carolina in OT to open the year. So yeah, the Caps are 4-0 but they could just as easily be 0-4 and none of their wins have been even close to impressive. The Caps might not lose this one but they’re a great fade team over the next few games because they’re way overvalued and they’re not going to keep winning with the way that they’ve been playing. They could be a team on a serious decline this year. Play: Florida +193 (Risking 2 units).

Edmonton +150 over CALGARY

The Flames should not be favored by this much over anyone, period. Calgary returns home from a three-game East Coast trip where they won once and lost twice. Its lone win came in Montreal in a game that they were the second best team on the ice and were outshot 36-21. You look up and down this Flames roster and what you see is an old team. Alex Tanguay is in his 13th year, Jerome Iginla is in his 16th year, Cory Sarich is in his 13th year, Oli Jokinen is in his 14th year, Scott Hannan is in his 13th year, Niklas Hagman and Matt Stajan are in their 10th year and the list goes on. Calgary has one win in four games while the Oilers have one regulation loss in four tries. The Oilers are a team on the rise and those wins instill confidence. A young and talented team that starts winning is a dangerous team. Edmonton is coming off another confidence building 3-1 win over the Preds last night. They held Nashville to a mere 12 shots on net. This is a short trip to Edmonton but the mood in the dressing room is more positive than it’s been in a long time. The Oilers want this one badly, as it’s been over a year since they beat the Flames (five straight losses) and they’re about to send a message to this bitter rival that they’re “the team” to look out for in Alberta. Play: Edmonton +150 (Risking 2 units).

St. Louis +135 over LOS ANGELES

The Blues are 2-3 overall but have been the better team on the ice in every game with the exception of a 4-2 win over the Sharks. The Blue Notes wrap up a four-game trip here with a chance to even their record and they couldn’t have asked for a better spot. The Kings began the year with two games in Europe and after returning home they headed out for two more games on the East Coast. That’s some mean scheduling by the league. Additionally, the Kings lost Drew Doughty to injury and that’s a huge loss. After that brutal traveling schedule, there’s great chance the Kings will be extremely flat here and that provides us with a great opportunity to cash our ticket. The Blue Notes are playing some fine hockey and own one of the more early-season, misleading records in the league. Definite overlay. Play: St. Louis +135 (Risking 2 units).

NHL Predictions

Minnesota Wild -113

The Penguins are playing in the back end of a back to back, as they lost in Winnipeg last night (2-1). The Penguins are 3-2-2 on the season, and will be without Malkin, Tyler Kennedy, and of course Crosby for tonight's game with the Wild. The Wild are 2-1-2 on the season, but 2-0-1 on home ice. The Wild offense hasn't been clicking yet, but new additions Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi should get it going soon and become a dangerous duo. Niklas Backstrom has looked great to start the season with a 1.93 GAA and .928 SV%. Take note that the Penguins see themselves in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation and are 3-7 in their last 10 times in that spot. Also note that Minnesota has had Pittsburgh's number beating them in 4 straight meetings. On home ice against against a Penguins team missing some key players who are on a back-to-back I like the Wild to get things done tonight. Take Minnesota as short favorites.

Phoenix Coyotes +120

Both the Blackhawks and the Coyotes enter the season with a 2-1-1 record. The Blackhawks are 0-1 in their lone road game against the Stars, while the Coyotes are 1-0 in their lone home game against the Jets. Chicago has lost to the Stars and Boston (in shootout) and has enjoyed wins over the Jets and Stars. The Coyotes opened the season with losses in San Jose and Dallas (shootout), but then went on to beat Nashville and Winnipeg by a combined score of 9-3. The Coyotes come into tonight's game feeling good off of the two straight wins, which included an impressive performance in their homeopener against the Jets where they outshot their opponents 34-19. We don't have a confirmed starter for the Coyotes in tonight's game, but whoever is in net should give Phoenix a chance to win. LaBrabera is 1-0 with a 2.00 GAA and .920 SV% in his lone start, and Mike Smith is 1-1-1 with a 2.63 GAA and .917 SV%. Phoenix has taken 5 of their last 8 meetings with the Blackhawks, and I think we have value on them getting them +120 at home against a team that the public loves to bet on.

Rangers / Canucks Under 5.5

The Rangers continue their road trip in Vancouver tonight, as they look to get their first win of the season. The Rangers are 0-1-2 on the season, which has included 2 games in Europe. The Canucks have started 2-2-1, but four of those games were played on the road. Vancouver fans will be happy to see Ryan Kesler return tonight, but I don't expect him to look 100% out there, and he is expected to start on a line with Higgins and Hodgson to let him ease back into the roster. The Rangers have scored just 5 goals in their first 3 games, but have kept two of their three games within a goal due to the play of Henrik Lundqvist. Lundqvist is 0-1-2 but has a 2.23 GAA and .923 SV%. Although not confirmed, I expect Luongo to start tonight at home, and although he his numbers aren't good to date I expect him to play well tonight. The UNDER is 18-6-2 in the Canucks last 26 home games, 20-7-3 in their last 30 games as a favorite, and 37-18-5 in their last 60 games as a big favorite of -151 to -200. The UNDER is 45-19-7 in the Rangers last 71 road games, and 7-2-1 in their last 10 vs Western Conference opponents. The UNDER is 4-1 in these two teams last 5 meetings, which includes a 1-0 New York win last season. Value here on the UNDER 5.5.

Matt Fargo

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Boston Bruins
Play: Boston Bruins

The Bruins have not exactly been playing like Stanley Cup Champions as they are off to a 2-3 start and the slow beginning can partially be attributed to the Cup hangover. They started the season with three straight home games which should have gotten them off to a good start but Boston went just 1-2 in those games, scoring a total of one goal in those two setbacks. Boston has played its last two games on the road and is coming off a shootout win last time out which could provide some needed momentum. Carolina opened the season with three straight losses but it has bounced back with wins in its last two games, both coming by a single goal. The Hurricanes are 1-1-1 on the road and going back to last season they are 5-12 in their last 17 games as a road underdog including 3-9 in their last 12 games as a road underdog of +150 or less. The Bruins know they need to get rolling soon and with 10 of their next 12 games at home, this is the perfect time to get back on track. Boston is playing for some revenge following a one-goal loss at Carolina last Wednesday. The Bruins went 0-5 in the power play and that has been the biggest problem so far this year as they are 0-15 over the last four games and just 1-20 on the season. That percentage is good for a tie for fourth worst in the NHL. Carolina won the opening game of this season series last year as well before Boston went on to win the final three meetings so we should see another bounceback here. 3* Boston Bruins

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit FIU/Arkansas State OVER 53.5

55 total points were scored in last year's matchup, and I'm expecting at least that many points tonight. Both of these teams like to throw the football and the over is often the play to make when dealing with pass-heavy attacks. That's because passing gives teams the opportunity to score points in bunches with big plays. Also, the clock stops with an incomplete pass. FIU's T.Y. Hilton and Arkansas State's Dwayne Frampton should provide several big plays to help push this one over the number. FIU is 10-2 over in its last 12 when playing against a team with a winning record. We've seen an average of 64 points scored in this situation. FIU is also 9-2 over in its last 11 road games vs. teams that complete 58% of their passes or more. We've seen an average of 61 points scored in this situation. We'll take the over.

John Ryan

Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins
Prediction: Carolina Hurricanes

5* graded play on Carolina as they take on Boston in NHL action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Carolina will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 51-32 for 61.4% winners and has made 28.9 units per one unit wagered since 2005. Play against home teams against the money line after having lost 2 of their last 3 games and is a team winning between 30% to 40% of their games and playing a team with a losing record in the first half of the season. Although still early in the season all the criteria for this play is matched by the two teams. Boston has not done well in this situation noting they are 4-8 against the money line (-11.2 Units) in home games when playing against a marginal losing team sporting a 40% to 49 win percentage over the last two seasons. Take Carolina.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Arkansas State -3

Arkansas State is 3-0 at home against FIU. Motivated by a loss at FIU last season, look for the Red Wolves to extend their home streak in this series to 4-0. One thing you haven't wanted to make a habit of is playing the Golden Panthers following a bye. That's because they are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 following a bye week. They have lost by an average of 16.7 points in this situation. The Red Wolves are 5-1 ATS in all games this season and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. We'll lay the number with the home team.

DAVID BANKS

Florida International / Arkansas State Under

The Sun Belt takes center stage on the college gridiron when the Florida International Golden Panthers and Arkansas State Red Wolves collide under the Tuesday night lights; kick-off from ASU Stadium is set for 8:00 ET on ESPN.

FIU will look to claw above the breakeven point on Tuesday night when it locks horns with the Red Wolves after splitting its first two Sun Belt clashes against both North Texas and Louisiana. Coach Mario Cristobal’s kids stepped out of conference play last week and knocked off the Zips of Akron by a 27-17 final tally as lofty 17-point favorites; the win was the team’s second of the season on the road. QB Wesley Carroll and WR T.Y Hilton could be in store for huge games in this spot with the Red Wolves giving up 222 YPG through the air (#62), but the Golden Panthers will also have a heck of a time limiting Arkansas State’s passing game considering they’ve been picked apart for an average of 245.3 YPG (#87) through the air themselves. FIU’s just 1-8 ATS its L/9 games played in the month of October.

Though Arkansas State put forth a 4-8 SU record a year ago, the Red Wolves were lucrative for their betting backers ultimately going 7-5 against the closing number. New head coach Hugh Freeze’s kids have parlayed last year’s pointspread success into a moneymaking 5-1 ATS mark over the course of the first six games of their 2011-12 campaign. The squad has been decent on both sides of the ball as the offense ranks 28th in the land in total yards gained (444.2 YPG) as well as 36th in total yards allowed (344.8 YPG). QB Ryan Aplin has already thrown for 1646 yards heading into this one, but his 6/8 TD/INT ratio leaves a little cause for concern. This will only be the Red Wolves third home game of the season; a spot the team has covered in five of their L/6 tries.

The home team has dominated the all-time series between these Sun Belt Conference rivals winning five of the six SU while going 4-2 ATS; the ‘under’ holds a 4-2 advantage as well. FIU covered as 4.5-point favorites in its 31-24 win a year ago. FIU has never won in Jonesboro and has been outscored by the aggregate score of 120-58 in its three overall visits. That said; the Golden Panthers are 3-1-1 ATS their L/5 road games and 5-2 ATS the L/7 times they were installed underdogs. Arkansas State is 4-1 ATS its L/5 as home chalk, but have also gone a wretched 3-9 ATS the L/12 times when playing off a bye.

Wunderdog

Panthers vs. Capitals
Play: Under 5.5

The Florida Panthers head to Washington to face-off vs. the Washington Capitals, and it should be a good one. Florida brings a 3-1 record to start the season, while the Caps sit at a perfect 4-0 with three of the wins coming at home. This is a division game that has some early-season clout as these clubs battle for first place, and that should offer a hard-fought, tight-checking contest. Florida has played their last games without rest to a 6-0-1 mark to the UNDER, and the Panthers have also now played to a 17-6-3 UNDER mark in their last 26 vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Capitals are taking note of opponents scoring big in their previous game, and have really tightened things up and are now a perfect 8-0 to the UNDER when facing an opponent that tallied 5 or more in their previous game. Washington is also well rested and off two days rest they are 18-4 to the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game.

Hollywood Sports

Flyers at Senators
Play: Over

The Flyers (3-0-0-1) comes off a 3-2 overtime loss to Los Angeles on Saturday -- and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after playing a game where they failed to score more than two goals in their last contest. Philly has seen higher-scoring games when on the road this year as they have played 8 of their last 11 road games Over the Total. The Flyers have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as a big favorite in the -151 to -200 price range. And in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, they have played 4 of these games Over the Total. They face an Ottawa team (1-4-0-0) that comes off a 2-1 loss in Washington on Saturday. But this club has seen the Over go 4-1-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. And the Senators have seen the Over go 5-0-2 in their last 7 games against a team that failed to score more than two goals in their last game. Take the Over in the game between Philly and Ottawa.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Florida International +3.5 over Arkansas State: Tuesday night football is back and that's cool cause I enjoy watching Sun Belt Football. Tonight FIU takes on Arkansas State in what should be a tight ballgame. I like FIU here. They come in at 4-2 and that includes wins over Louisville on the road and and UCF at home. After those two wins they were shocked at home BY UL Lafayette as 16.5 favs. Now that loss was a combination of a letdown and the fact that they lost their QB and RB during the game as well. FIU knows full well that it's their defense that will have to step up here. They do stop the run well, allowing just 107 ypg, while they havew struggled some vs the pass, allowing 245 ypg. That's the part of the defense they need to improve to night. Arkansas State doesn't run the ball well as they have just 173 total yards in their last 3 games vs FBS foes and just a 2.1 ypc average in those games as well, so that could set up some 2nd and 3rdd and longs and and I expevt the Panthers to win a few more of those battles than not. Yes Arkansas State has a powerful offense and Steve Alpine does lead the conference in totall offense, but he also has thrown 8 INT's to just 6 TD's on the year. For the year Arkansas State has given the ball away 13 times compared to just 7 for the Panthers. The FIU Offense has been decent this year ranking 43rd in passing, putting up 249 ypg and theyu will be facing the weakness of this Ark State defense as they are 62nd vs the pass, allowing 222 ypg. According to Florida Today Chrostobal has indicated that this is the biggest game of the year for this team and I expect them to really play well. Arkansas State has the clear edge on offense, but I feel the FIU defense will show up and contain this offense enough to get the outright win here. KEY TREND--- Since 1992 Arkansas state is 1-11 ATS after allowing 75 or less yards rushing.

4 UNIT PLAY

Pittsburgh/ Minnesota Under 5.5: Pitt has to be wondering where the scoring will come from these days as they are without, Crosby, Malkin and Kennedy for this one and that leaves them thin offensively. For the year Pitt is 18th in scoring at 2.6 gpg and they have scored just 5 goals in their last 3 games as the Injuries continue to mount. The Minnesota defense is not a good team for a struggling offense to face as they coming in having allowed just 2.2 gpg thus far and that ranks 1oth in the league. The Minnesota offense has not taken flight so far as they come in 23rd in scoring (2.2 gpg) and 27th in shots taken (24.6). Now they must face a Pitt defense that really tightens the screws with Malkin and Crosby out. Pitt has allowed just 2.4 gpg and 29.4 shots per game on the year, plus they have the top PK unit in the league. Just don't see alot of scoring in this one and both teams could be a bit tired as pitt played last night, while the Wild is off 3 straight OT games and that should aid in keeping the score down.

3 UNIT PLAY

Carolina/ Boston Under 5.5: In their last 34 home games during the first half of the season the Bruin home games have gone 5-29 OU and that includes an 0-3 OU mark in their 3 home games is year. Boston is really struggling to score this year as they have put up just 1.8 gpg thus far, but you really don't have top score much when you're giving up just 1.8 gpg. Boston has always played great defense at home and this year will be no exception, especially since the offense is struggling. Boston also enters with the 26th ranked PP, while their PK is 7th. Don't expect a lot of those PP goals in this one. The Carolina defense has struggled so far, but they have problems scoring also, putting in just 2.6 gpg so far. The OU is 1-4 the last 5 meetings and their lone meeting this year put up 5 goals. I look for another tight low scoring game between these teams.

2 UNIT PLAY

Edmonton/ Calgary Over 5.5: The OU is 71 in Calgary's last 8 at home and 8-2 in their last 10 vs the Northwest. Neither offense has been strong this year, but both teams come in with a solid PP's as the Flames are ranked 9th (23%), while the Oilers are ranked 14th (17.6%). The Flames have had problems stopping teams form scoring as they have allowed 3.5 gpg so far. The Oilers are 3rd in goals against, allowing just 1.8, but they have struggled in this building allowing 22 goals in their last 4 trips here. Calgary is a desperate team right now and should get their offense ranking here. I look for about 7 goals in this one.

1 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia/ Ottawa Over 5.5: The Flyers are 9th in scoring and they are 11th in PP's and 21st in PK. Ottawa is just 17th in scoring (2.6 gpg) but they are 3rd in PP, while they rank 30th in scoring defense (4.6 gpg. Looks like a high scoring game in Ottawa tonight.