Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, October 22

Jim Feist

CF (101) UL - LAFAYETTE VS (102) ARKANSAS STATE

Take: (102) ARKANSAS STATE

Reason: Your free pick for Tuesday, October 22nd, 2013, comes in the Sun Belt conference in college football. Arkansas State is a good team (3-3), with their losses to Memphis and a pair of SEC teams (Missouri, Auburn). This offense is potent, averaging 31 points, 272 yards passing and 209 yards rushing per game. That ground game is 31st in the nation. The Red Wolves are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games and 3-0 SU at home. These teams are undefeated in the Sun Belt, the only two teams left without losses, so both clubs will be up for it. Louisiana Lafayette is giving up 27 ppg and comes off a victory over Western Kentucky after giving up 471 yards. The Ragin' Cajuns are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf, so grab the home dog. Play Arkansas State!

Ray Monohan

Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Arkansas State Arkansas State

Arkansas State +2.5

Loving the fact that we are getting to the point in the season where we have Tuesday football. Believe it or not this Sun Belt is an important one between the only two teams that have yet to lose a game in conference this season.

Going with the home dogs in this one. They have yet to lose at home this year and were able to force ULL QB Terrance Broadway into mistakes last year.

Instead of losing my a FG I think they kick a FG late to win it. Maybe even put a little on the ML too.

5* FREE Play

Jeffrey Brandes

Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Arkansas State

Key Trends:
UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns are 21-12-1 ATS All Games (PK -> 2.5)
UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns are 12-5-0 ATS As Favorite (PK -> 2.5)
UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns are 11-3-1 ATS As Away (PK -> 2.5)
UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns are 7-0-0 ATS As Away Favorite (PK -> 2.5)
UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns are 3-0-0 ATS After 2 ATS Wins (PK -> 2.5)

Remember, the trend is your friend:

RECOMMENDATION: UL Lafayette (-2.5-110)

Art Aronson

Vancouver Canucks -110

Here's a big opportunity for the visitors to jump all over an injured and frustrated Islanders team. New York will be without the services of two key players today as defenseman Lubomir Vinovsky is injured, while forward Michael Grabner is suspended. The Isles are spinning out of control right now, coming off a 4-3 loss to Carolina on Saturday and are just 1-3-1 in their last five overall. Note that the Isles are just 9-13 (-2.7 units) in their last 22 non-conference games. Vancouver is playing the fifth game of a seven game road trip. It won its first two but has dropped two in a row; a tough shootout loss to the Penguins and then a lacklustre 3-1 setback at Columbus on Sunday. It wasn't for a lack of trying though as the Canucks would actually outshoot the Blue Jackets 38-29. Expect goaltender Roberto Luongo to get the start vs. his former team, as he's 3-1-1 with a 2.25 GAA in five starts vs. the Islanders. Note that Vancouver is 4-1 (+2.7 units) vs. all teams with losing records this year. Here's a perfect opponent for the Canucks to get untracked against, taking advantage of a team that's down a couple of key pieces. Lay the short price.

Rob Vinciletti

UL Lafayette vs. Arkansas St
Play: UL Lafayette -2.5

The Cajuns cashed as a unit rated play for us last week. Tonight we are on their side once again as they have home loss revenge for a 50-27 setback last season. In that game they allowed a season high -5 in the turnover department which sealed the deal in that game. Tonight they are favored on the road and have a better defense. Arkansas St is just 1-10 ats vs .600 or better conference opponents that come in off back to back wins. They are also a lousy 0-4 to the spread as a dog with rest. The Cajuns are 6-1 ats off a win and have played well in closely lined games winning and covering in 3 of 4 when the line is +3 to -3. Look for LA, Lafayette to win and cover.

Doug Upstone

Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Arkansas State
Play: Arkansas State +3

The Red Wolves have yet to lose at home this year and that will be a factor in this game between Sun Belt contenders. Last year they gave Lafayette QB Terrance Broadway fits in a road blowout. This year's game should be a FG win by the home team not the other way around. East cover for Arkansas State +2.5.

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Arkansas St +2.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After a slow first half last Tuesday night, the Ragin' Cajun turned things around and cashed in a winner for us at Western Kentucky as a four point road underdog. This week in their second straight Tuesday night game Louisiana Lafayette finds themselves as a small road favorite and I will fade them in this spot. ULL seemed to be the pre-season favorite to win the Sun Belt, but they have not done enough to be a favorite in this game in my opinion. ASU has their fourth new head coach in four years, but that is because of the success of the program. The Red Wolves are the two time defending that has seen the Red Wolves go 16-1 in Sun Belt play since the start of the 2011 season. Arkansas State enters this game with just a 3-3 record, but their three losses were all on the road against Memphis and two teams that are currently ranked in the AP Top 25 in Missouri and Auburn. ULL has a lot of weapons on offense, but so does Arkansas State who currently leads the Sun Belt and is ranked 25th nationally in total offense at just over 481 total yards per game. The Red Wolves have also had a little extra prep time for this game as they have been idle since their October 12th home win over Idaho. Take the points.

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Arkansas State vs. UL LafayetteFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UL Lafayette -2.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Ragin' Cajuns play on Tuesday for the 2nd straight game on national television. They have been playing well and will be too much tonight for the Red Wolves of Arkansas St. Terrance Broadway is the difference maker in this matchup as the Cajuns QB has thrown for 11 touchdowns this season and in last year's game against Arkansas St. he threw for three tds and over 370 yards in the air.

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New Jersey at ColumbusFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: New JerseyFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Neither the Devils nor the Blue Jackets have been sharp out of the gate, although each team is coming off a win in its most recent outing.
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My take here is based on the two goalies. Sergei Bobrovsky was awesome last season for Columbus, but he hasn’t been all that sharp out of the new season gate. Bobrovsky has let some softies through, and just doesn’t seem to have found his stride yet.
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Cory Schneider is likely to get the start tonight for New Jersey. He’s owned the Blue Jackets throughout his career, and I very much like the fact Schneider is off a shutout win in his last start.
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New Jersey has garnered only two points in six road games to date, but I think getting back home and nailing the Rangers will have this team with a better mindset here. As for the Blue Jackets, they’re simply getting outplayed for the most part, and I thought they were pretty fortunate to top the Canucks on Sunday.
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I think this one is a pick ‘em game, but the price offers an opportunity to grab a decent plus sign with the road team. I’ll look for the Devils to break through for their first road win as the road dog tonight.

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Nashville vs. MinnesotaFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Tonight in Minneapolis, we have a battle of two teams going in opposite directions in the Nashville Predators and Minnesota Wild. The Preds have posted a 5-1-1 record in their last 7 games while the Wild stumbled at the end of their road trip, losing three straight. We have a side play included in our Tuesday NHL Package but we’ll look at the total for tonight’s Free Play. Minnesota has had some issues between the pipes but those should stabilize a bit tonight when they get Niklas Backstrom back from a knee injury. He hasn’t played since 10/5 and even in the two starts he made at the beginning of the year he just didn’t look right. Everything coming out of Minnesota suggests that he was injured to start the season but decided to give it a go anyway and the team wound up paying for it. Backstrom has been back at full practice for about a week and reports are that he looks like his old self again. The Predators will counter with Pekka Rinne, who will be back between the pipes after getting the night off in the team’s 3-1 win in Winnipeg on Sunday. Year in and year our, Rinne is one of the best goalies in the league and this year has been no different as he has given up just 7 goals in his last 4 starts. Add all that to the fact that these two have played to a 4-0-1 record to the UNDER in their last 5 games and we’ll look for strong performances from both Backstrom and Rinne and tab the UNDER as our Tuesday Free Play.

Wunderdog

Vancouver at New York Islanders
Pick: New York Islanders +107

This is a big game for the New York Islanders who have turned the corner, and have become a tough out on home ice. Vancouver hasn't hit their stride yet. After winning their first two on this road trip, they have dropped their last two, and have just two total wins in their last six games. The Canucks are in the heart of a season-long seven game road trip. The Islanders have been competitive in every game this season, and have not suffered a loss by more than a single goal all season. They have also played to an 11-5 mark in their last 16 on two days of rest, as well as 11-4 when facing an opponent that scored 2 or fewer in their previous contest. The home team has dominated this series by taking 8 of the last 11. Take the Islanders.

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Nashville at MinnesotaFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The 5-3-0-1 Nashville Predators of the NHL Western Conference Central divsion will take on the 3-3-1-2 Minnesota Wild also of the Western Conference Central division in 2013 NHL action. The Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between the teams. Nashville is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Take the over 5 goals in the game.

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Vancouver vs. NY IslandersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: VancouverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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In the interest of "full disclosure," I lost w/ the Canucks Sunday as they went to Columbus and were beaten 3-1 by the Blue Jackets. I expect them to come back tonight and earn the two points at the expense of the Islanders, who also lost their last game, 4-3 here at home to Carolina. The Isles have lost 4 of 5 overall.
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Only one previous time this season has Vancouver dropped B2B games. They responded by winning at Philadelphia 3-2 their next time out. Both of the Canucks' recent losses could have gone either way. Against Pittsburgh, they lost in a shootout. Against Columbus, they outshot the Blue Jackets 38-29. Roberto Luongo looks like he will be back in net Tuesday, which is a plus. The Western Conference has really had the East's number so far this season, so the fact Vancouver has dropped B2B non-conf games goes against a league-wide trend. Over the last three seasons, the Canucks are a perfect 5-0 SU off B2B road losses.
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The Islanders are just 1-3-1 their last five games, all of which have been decided by one goal. They will be short-handed even before taking the ice tonight as injured defenseman Lobomir Visnovsky won't be suiting up, nor will suspeded forward Michael Grabner. I just don't see this as a very strong team right now, plus they are 4-12 following a home game where both sides scored three or more goals. As I said at the top, the Isles are off a 4-3 home loss to the Hurricanes.

Will Rogers

Nashville vs. Minnesota
Pick: Nashville

I think that based on their recent play, the Predators are a solid underdog value Tuesday night at Minnesota.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Hot Team - Making the Preds a live dog in this matchup has been their recent play where they've picked up nine points total over the last five games. They have posted consecutive road wins at Montreal and Winnipeg, allowing a total of just two goals. They are getting strong play in net from Pekka Rinne and Carter Hutton. Minnesota comes in having scored just three goals total during a three-game losing streak.

2. Special teams - Nashville has killed off 16 straight power plays while Minnesota has given up at least one PP goal in all but one game this season. The Wild had previously been strong on their own power play, but couldn't convert on a pair of 5 on 3 advantages against Florida Saturday in a 2-1 loss.

3. X-Factor - Don't put much stock into the schedule as Nashville is 3-1 when playing a 3rd road game in 4 days while Minnesota is 5-11 when playing with 2 days rest.