Jimmy Boyd
Toronto Maple Leafs -104
Expect Toronto head coach Randy Carlyle to have some creative play calling dialed up as he gets his chance for revenge against the Anaheim Ducks tonight. Carlyle led the Ducks to their only Stanley Cup over six years ago, and was fired nearly two years ago. Due to the lockout that shortened the season last year, this is his first matchup against his former team.
Duck's goalie Jonas Hiller was pulled after the first period against the Stars after giving up three goals on 12 shots in the first period. He has last all three of his career matchups against the Maple Leafs with a 5.05 goals-against average. If Hiller does not get the start, Frederik Andersen will step in to replace him, but it has been just three days since Andersen was recalled from the AHL.
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Anaheim -104 over TORONTOFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Maple Leafs have won six of nine games but that winning percentage is unsustainable for a team this bad. Certainly, Toronto has some goal scorers and no question Randy Carlyle will want to stick it to his former club but until the Leafs do something about their defense, they are going to lose a lot more games than they win. Over its last three games, Toronto has been outshot 115-60. That 3-1 loss to Chicago on Saturday ranks as one of the more flattering finals of the season. An unimpressive group of no-name defenseman (after the overrated Phaneuf) continues to hang both James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier out to dry. Paul Ranger? Seriously? Jake Gardiner is a defensive nightmare and Cody Franzen should be playing for the Eerie Otters. This Leafs’ season started out beautifully but the fall from grace is not going to be pretty, and we’re sorry to say it to all you Leafs fans, but this roster is a mess and the Ducks powerful offense figures to add to Toronto’s defensive shortcomings.
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Anaheim has won seven in a row. They’ve scored three goals or more in all seven games and four or more in four of those. The Ducks outshot Dallas in their last game 47-36. They fired away 39 shots on the defensive minded Coyotes and 56 on the defensive-minded Senators. Defensively, Anaheim is physical and they have several defensemen that can move the puck out quickly and efficiently. The Ducks are frightening to play against because of all that firepower up front and because of a powerplay that looks like it is going to score on every opportunity. Additionally, the Ducks embark on a seven-game trip beginning here and the first game of such a trip almost always brings out the best in a team in an attempt to set the tone for the remainder of it. Anytime we can get such a high quality caliber team in a good spot against the pathetic defense of Maple Leafs you can pencil us in and we certainly make no exception here.
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Edmonton +201 over MONTREALFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The price on the Oilers here dictates the play. Edmonton is coming off a confidence boosting win in Ottawa on Friday and had the entire weekend off to get ready for this exciting trip to Montreal. The last time the Oilers played in Montreal was back in 2011. For many of these Oilers, it will be their first chance to play at this historic hockey city and you can be sure they will be jacked up and ready to go. Edmonton already has a bunch of key injuries and that’s one of the reasons it is such a big price but they also have the speed and point producers to match the Canadiens. The Habs have gotten off to a good start but in no way do they deserve this billing.
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Montreal has just as many key injuries as the Oilers. Max Pacioretty, Daniel Briere and sparkplug Brandon Prust are all out. The Canadiens have arguably played the NHL’s easiest schedule to date with just three games against teams over .500 and against that trip they have one win. That lone victory came against the now 5-4 Canucks back when Vancouver was adjusting to a new system and new coaches. Don’t get us wrong. We’re not suggesting for a second that the Canadiens are trash because that’s just not the case. They are quickly becoming extremely tough on defense and Carey Price remains one of the best when he’s on his game. However, they are overvalued here and that’s something we always look for.
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Nashville +132 over MINNESOTAFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. Minnesota has dropped three in a row against Florida, Tampa Bay and Toronto. Over that span the Wild scored one goal in each game for a total of three goals. Prior to that, they defeated the Sabres 2-1. In six of their last seven games, the Wild have scored two goals or less. That should come as no surprise because after Minnesota’s first line, the secondary lines lack everything. Fact is, the loss of reliable veterans like Pierre Marc-Bouchard, Matt Cullen and Cal Clutterbuck hurt Minnesota’s depth. It hurt it a lot and although Minnesota’s defense is solid, they are just not scoring enough to warrant this billing, especially against the most undervalued team in the NHL right now.
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We cashed in on the Predators on the weekend with back-to-back wins over Montreal and Winnipeg. Nashville is now 5-3 and they’ve picked up points in five straight games with four wins and one OT loss to Los Angeles. Pekka Rinne is playing outstanding in goal again. The Preds are a relentless group that plays a disciplined, tough brand of hockey. Coach Trotz will focus in on shutting down Minnesota’s only scoring line while relying on the depth of his entire lineup to take care of the rest. Once again we get a sweet tag on the better team with a huge edge in net and a huge edge in current form as well. Sign us up for that.
LT Profits
UL Lafayette vs Arkansas State
Pick : Arkansas State +3 -115
The UL Ragin’ Cajuns come off a nice Sun Belt win at Western Kentucky last week and are the current favorites to win the conference, but they face a tough road assignment tonight vs. the Arkansas State Red Wolves. ULL won last week by rushing for 254 yards on 4.9 yards per carry while getting practically nothing from quarterback Terrance Broadway, who completed 5-of-12 passes for 90 yards. The Cajuns ran the ball on practically every play of the second half and that approach won’t work vs. an Arkansas State team whose rushing defense stats are very deceptive. The Red Wolves got run over in three road games vs. BCS conference schools including Missouri and Auburn, but in three home games vs. teams on its level, ASU is allowing 98.7 rushing yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry! Arkansas State is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games.
Joe Gavazzi
LA Lafayette -2.5
Transition year for Ark St. under 1st year HC Harsin, former assistant at Texas and Boise St. Under outstanding coaches Freeze and Malzahn, Ark St. recorded consecutive 10-3 SU seasons L2Y with a 17-7 ATS mark. This year, the overpriced Wolves are just 3-3 SU, 1-4-1 ATS as 12 RS make adjustments to Harsin. We will pay a bit of a price to favor the visiting Cajuns who well remember an embarrassing 50-27 home loss to the Wolves in this very spot on the schedule last year. Under 3rd year HC Hudspeth, the Cajuns continue to point upward. In 2 years, Hudspeth is 18-8 SU, 16-8 ATS followed by a 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS beginning to 2013. That includes 4 consecutive wins after opening losses at Ark and Kansas St. Minor concern is that last week's Tuesday night 37-20 victory against W. Kentucky was strongly influenced by a 14 point swing of a near 100 yard pick six. But the 200 Club status of LA Lafayette and the 39 PPG average operating behind QB Broadway, will prove to be a meaningful advantage against the Red Wolves defense allowing 30 PPG. Ark St. has failed to cover since an opening day win vs. Ark-Pine losing those spread decisions by a combined 48 points. Play the more settled team with momentum and revenge.