Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, October 25

Matt Fargo

Pittsburgh Penguins at NY Islanders
Play: NY Islanders

The Penguins should be given a lot of credit with the way they have been playing as they are tied for first place in the Eastern Conference with Washington and they have done so without their star power. They have been getting it done with a total team effort and solid defense but Pittsburgh has lost another big name. Coach Dan Bylsma said Monday that defenseman Zbynek Michalek won't need surgery but will miss four to six weeks with a broken finger. Sidney Crosby is still out and did not travel to New York. Evgeni Malkin has missed the past five games and seven of the past 10 because of a troublesome right knee. He has been practicing, traveled to New York and could play tonight but likely will not be a huge factor. The Penguins They have killed 32 of 33 shorthanded situations, allowing only an overtime goal during a 3-on-4 against Washington. They have yet to allow a power play goal on the road. The Islanders return home following a 0-2 roadtrip, losing both games of the Florida swing against the Lightning and Panthers. They have won three straight games at home following a loss in their season opener and they have been solid on defense, allowing only 1.5 goals per game on the island and giving up no more than two goals in any game. The home team took five of the six meetings a season ago and going back further the home teams is 22-8 over the last 30 meetings. New York falls into a solid underdog situation as well. Play against road favorites of -200 or less after allowing two goals or less in four straight games going up against an opponent after allowing three goals or more two straight games. This situation is 68-42 (61.8 percent) since 1996. The Islanders are 11-4 in their last 15 home games against teams allowing 2.4 gpg or fewer while the Penguins are 1-6 in their last seven games as a favorite between -110 and -150.

Vegas Experts

Detroit Red Wings at Columbus Blue Jackets
Play: Detroit Red Wings

Considering the respective starts of both clubs, laying the juice is not that big a deal at all. The Red Wings are flying high with 10 points already and check in off their first loss of the season, a humbling 7-1 defeat at the hands of the best team in the Eastern Conference, Washington. Note that Detroit is a perfect 11-0 on the road off a non-conference game while Columbus, 0-7-1 on the season and the NHL's only winless team, is a pathetic 1-11 off BB road losses and an even worse 2-20 off a road loss by 1 goal. Red Wings roll tonight.

Jim Feist

Pittsburgh Penguines vs. NY Islanders
Play: Pittsburgh Penguins

Pittsburgh has a solid 3-1-1 road record and the Penguins are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. In fact, the Penguins are 12-4 in their last 16 road games. The Islanders are not 100%, 4-10 in their last 14 overall and 30-62 in their last 92 vs. Eastern Conference. New York is one of the weakest offensive teams in the league and the Penguins are 19-7 in the last 26 meetings. Play Pittsburgh!

Nick Parsons

Devils @ Kings
PICK: Under

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "under":

The Devils are 3-2-0-1; they lost 4-1 at Pittsburgh on Saturday; the O/U is 2-2-2.

New Jersey has lost two in a row and the injuries are mounting; "It's definitely a little disappointing for us," captain Zach Parise said after Saturday night's 4-1 loss in Pittsburgh. "We were getting better game to game, and I think the last two definitely haven't been our best. So I guess we just need to address what we've been doing differently.

"We haven't been as crisp with our passing coming out of our own zone. That's been one big difference. We've been stuck in our own zone for an extended period of time and not able to get in the offensive to get some attack going."

New Jersey already has a win over the Kings, beating L.A. 2-1 in a shootout Oct. 13th.

On the other bench: The Kings are 5-1-0-1; they beat Dallas 1-0 on Saturday; the O/U is 1-5-1.

LA has improved its power-play from last year, but has gotten out to this quick start because of a stifling defensive unit.

Goaltender Jonathan Quick has been phenomenal, recording his third consecutive shutout vs. the Stars.

Bottom line: Each side plays conservatively, waiting for the opposition to make a mistake; as such, the play is usually quite slow, and every tiny action is contested; this for the most part leads to some low-scoring games, and that's what I'm expecting to see between these two teams on Tuesday night.

SPORTS WAGERS

CHICAGO -½ -104 over Anaheim

After a rather nondescript season a year ago, the Blackhawks are once making some noise. The best news is that they’re coming off back-to-back OT losses at home and that means we should see an extra-focused Chicago club here. The Blackhawks rank second in the league in goals per game, just behind the Caps and that bodes well here against a Ducks team that has major problems behind the blue-line. Additionally, Jonas Hiller has been very shaky the past two starts, allowing five goals on 19 shots before being yanked against the offensively challenged Coyotes on Sunday and allowing three goals on 19 shots to the Stars this past Friday. The Ducks look sloppy and completely out of sync in their past four games and this is about the last team they would want to face under these conditions. Play: Chicago -½ -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

Dallas +108 over PHOENIX

Goaltenders in the NHL are having a bigger impact than ever on the outcome of games. Kari Lehtonen of the Stars has been singlehandedly responsible for the Stars 6-2 record. Lehtonen has started six of those games and the Stars are 6-0 in those contests. His GAA is 1.48 and his save percentage is .957. The Stars have allowed two goals or less in six straight games and although they lost their last game in L.A., 1-0, it may have been their best performance to date. Dallas wraps up a four-game trip here with a 2-1 record and should have plenty motivation left in hopes of making this first trip of the year a hugely successful one. Phoenix is coming off a 5-4 win against the Ducks. They’re now 3-3 on the year and while they play hard and have gotten moderate results, its goaltending is rarely going to be better than the opposition’s and that alone makes the Stars worthy of a bet, taking back a price. Play: Dallas +108 (Risking 2 units).

San Jose -½ +125 over NASHVILLE

The Sharks 3-3 record is one of the more misleading marks in the league and so, too, is the Preds 3-3-0-1 record. The Preds have scored two goals or less in five straight games. Against Edmonton last week they managed a measly 12 shots on net the entire game. Against Calgary this past Saturday, Nashville managed 14 shots on net the entire game, yet managed to win 2-0. In another one of its wins, they beat the Blue Notes in a game in which they recorded a paltry 16 shots on net. In summarizing the play of the Preds this season, they’ve been badly outplayed, they look awful offensively and they’re fortunate they’re not 1-6. Furthermore, Nashville is returning home from a three-game trip through Western Canada and as a result, this assignment is a daunting one at best. The Sharkies are among the elite teams. They opened the year with one win in four tries at the Shark Tank. They completely dominated every game over that stretch but ran into one hot goalie after another. Then they took to the road and reeled off two straight wins over Boston and New Jersey. San Jose is re-energized, they’ve been off since Friday and they have no excuses for losing to this vastly inferior host. Sharks in a great spot and if the Preds aren’t already shaking in their blue suede skates, they should be. Play: San Jose -½ +125 (Risking 2 units).

Bryan Power

Detroit Red Wings @ Columbus Blue Jackets
PICK: Detroit Red Wings

It would be tough to find two teams off to more contrasting starts than Central Division rivals Detroit and Columbus as the division leading Red Wings are 5-1 with 10 points while the Jackets remain the league's only winless team. Detroit just suffered its first loss of the season - 7-1 to Washington - so they certainly will be in a surly mood taking on the league's worst team. The Wings typically bounce back very well from a blowout loss, particularly on the road where they are 10-3 the previous two seasons when off a loss by three goals or more. Even more impressive is the fact that they are a perfect 11-0 SU on the road off a non-conference game since the start of last year. They already dominated Columbus once this season, winning 5-2 at Joe Louis Arena on Friday, one night before losing to the Caps in what was a battle of unbeatens. Meanwhile, everything has gone wrong for the Blue Jackets, who allowed 2 goals in the final 36 seconds Saturday night to lose at Ottawa. With Friday's loss, the club is now just 3-10 SU its last 13 games vs. the Wings. This year's poor start is really just an extension from a bad finish to 2010-11 as they are now 1-14-4 their last 19 games. Compare that to Detroit, who has just 14 losses in its last 35 regular season games.

Ben Burns

Pittsburgh Penguins @ New York Islanders
PICK: New York Islanders

I feel the home underdog is offering us solid value in this one. Let's take a closer look.

This is the first game of a "home and home series." As a result, I expect the Isles to be highly motivated to "hold serve" in their own building.

Of course, off back to back road losses, they should be happy just to get back home at all - not to mention "hungry" to snap their skid.

Note that the Isles are 3-1 at home, including 3-0 their last three here. They won those games by a combined score of 11-4. In their four games here overall, the Isles are allowing an average of only 1.5 goals.

While the Isles should be motivated to get back in the win column, off three straight victories, the Penguins may potentially be a little "complacent" here. They're a costly 30-26 (-11.8) vs. the moneyline the past 2+ seasons, when off a victory by two or goals.

The Isles, 15-13 (+5.1) the past 2+ seasons when playing with two day's rest in between games, have won two of the last three meetings with the Pens here at Long Island - and three of the last five here. They were underdogs in all five of those games. I feel they've got a solid shot at scoring another "upset" here. Consider New York.

Sean Murphy

Vancouver Canucks @ Edmonton Oilers
PICK: Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks are playing better hockey now than they were the last time they met the Oilers back on October 15th. They're also in a much more favorable scheduling spot. Keep in mind, they won that meeting earlier this month by a 4-3 score.

With all of that said, we're actually being asked to lay a shorter price with the Canucks this time around. That's a direct result of the Oilers gaining some support from the betting marketplace, but I'm not sure it's entirely warranted.

Vancouver was at the tail-end of a four-game in six-night road trip the last time it faced the Oilers. By all accounts, the Canucks were outplayed in that game, but still managed to skate away with a victory.

Now the Canucks head to Oil Country having had two full days off since defeating the Wild 3-2 on Saturday. They've also won three of their last four games overall, and have outshot their last three opponents by a combined 112-68 margin.

Edmonton is off to a 3-2-2 start this season, a marked improvement over what we saw from the young Oilers last year, as they opened the campaign with only two wins in their first eight games.

I'm just not sure how long Edmonton can continue to play winning hockey when it's scoring under two goals per game. There's lots of talent on the roster, but not a great deal of cohesion.

Vancouver has gotten back to playing responsible defensive hockey lately, allowing just three goals over its last two games. Roberto Luongo has been chastised by the media for his poor start, and suddenly finds himself in a competition for playing time with backup Cory Schneider. That might just give the veteran Luongo an edge, as he turned in his best effort of the season on Saturday, allowing only one goal on 26 shots in a 5-1 win over the Predators.

The Canucks have owned this series lately, going 9-3 in the last 12 meetings, including a 3-1 mark in four trips to Edmonton dating back to the start of last season. Take Vancouver.

WUNDERDOG

Game: Dallas at Phoenix
Pick: Phoenix -120

The first glimpse here gets attention with the 6-2 Stars getting the plus side of the line vs. a .500 Phoenix team. Looking a little closer the Stars have been that same .500 team on the road, as they have been perfect at home. Remember this same Coyotes team had Dallas on the ropes early in the season in a 2-1 loss in a shootout, and that was in Dallas. They will be playing with revenge here, but played Dallas even on the road. The Stars are losing their twinkle as a road dog at just 2-6 in their last eight and just 4-10 in their last 14 after scoring 2 or less in their previous contest. The Coyotes are up for the challenge as a short home favorite from -110 to -150 where they are 27-11 in their last 38. Play on Phoenix in this one.

David Banks

Troy / Florida Int Over

The Sun Belt once again takes center stage on the college gridiron when the Florida International Golden Panthers host the Troy Trojans under the Tuesday night lights; kick-off from FIU Stadium is set for 8:00 ET on ESPN & ESPN3.com.

The Trojans out of Troy, AL will look to pull even in Sun Belt play on Tuesday night after amassing a 1-2 SU record in games against MTSU, Louisiana and UL Monroe. Coach Larry Blakeney’s kids have put forth very mediocre results to date when taking the program’s success over the last handful of seasons into account. They enter this spot just 2-4 SU and a woeful 1-5 against the closing number. They will have had 10 full days to prepare for this conference battle and enter having gone 5-1 ATS off their bye the last six times. Troy has dropped all three of its road games to date by an average of 16 PPG. The main problem for this squad has come on the defensive side of the ball where the Trojans have given up an average of 460.8 YPG (#113) and 34.7 PPG (#110).

Florida International looked to be well on its way towards becoming a player for the 2011-12 Sun Belt championship holding a 16-13 lead heading into the 4th quarter last week at Arkansas State, but head coach Mario Cristobal’s kids had no answer for Red Wolves QB Ryan Aplin who torched them for a career high 164 yards and two TDs on the ground. The loss dropped the Golden Panthers to 4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS on the year and saw them fall into a 5th place tie in the Sun Belt at 1-2 SU. FIU has won 10 of the L/15 times it hosted a SBC tussle, but has failed to cover each of its L/4 overall games played. For them to come out on top tonight, the defense will have to hold down the Trojans passing game (#16 at 298.7 YPG) since the visitors have managed to run for just 102.7 YPG on the ground (#108).

FIU put an end to its six-game losing streak at the hands of Troy last year in the Trojans own house beating them 52-35 as 8.5-point underdogs; the ‘over’ has cashed in each of these division rivals L/3 meetings. The Trojans have won and covered each of their L/5 games played on a Tuesday night, but check in with a 2-5 ATS tally their L/7 road games. Florida International enters with a 2-6 ATS record the L/8 times it went off the board a home chalk, and is just 1-4 ATS versus the L/5 sub .500 teams faced. The road team has covered five of the six all time meetings between these schools.

Rocketman

Pittsburgh @ NY Islanders
Play: Pittsburgh -133

Pittsburgh is 9-3 overall vs NY Islanders the past 3 years. Penguins are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Penguins are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. Atlantic. Penguins are 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Penguins are 12-4 in their last 16 road games. Penguins are 38-13 in their last 51 Tuesday games. Penguins are 38-14 in their last 52 games playing on 2 days rest. Penguins are 12-5 in their last 17 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Penguins are 11-5 in their last 16 games following a win. Islanders are 30-62 in their last 92 vs. Eastern Conference. Islanders are 4-9 in their last 13 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Islanders are 4-10 in their last 14 overall. Islanders are 2-6 in their last 8 games as an underdog. Islanders are 3-9 in their last 12 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Islanders are 19-59 in their last 78 vs. Atlantic. Islanders are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Islanders are 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Penguins are 19-7 in the last 26 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Pittsburgh tonight!

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Troy/FIU Under 55.5

We saw 87 total points scored in last year's meeting. So for the books to release a line of 55.5, we know where they want the money to go. We won't oblige them. Neither of these teams have been as explosive offensively as many expected. The Golden Panthers rank 73rd in the country with 26.1 points per game and the Trojans rank 93rd with 22.7 points per contest. Because they haven't met expectations in terms of offensive production, they have been a solid unders play. The Trojans are 3-0 under in their last 3 games and the Golden Panthers are 5-1 under in their last 6. The under is 7-3-2 in the Golden Panthers' last 12 home games and 5-0-2 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. The under is also 4-1 in the Trojans' last 5 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points and 4-1 in their last 5 conference games. We'll take the Under tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Vancouver Canucks vs. Edmonton Oilers
Play: Vancouver Canucks

On Tuesday the free NHL play is on Vancouver. Game 63 at 9:35 eastern. Vancouver has won 9 of the last 13 in the series vs Edmonton and 26 of 36 as a road favorite. They have also played well winning 35 of the last 50 in division play. Edmonton has struggles in division play losing 37 of the last 51, losing all 4 already this season. Edmonton comes in off a shutout win and they have lost 5 of 7 in that scenario. The Oilers have not played well on Tuesday night losing an amazing 26 of 31 games. Look for Vancouver to get the win here tonight.