Free Picks: Service Plays for Tuesday, October 26,2010

Tom Freese

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers

The defending Champion Lakers take on Houston tonight at Staples Center. Los Angeles is 21-10 ATS their last 31 games vs. the Rockets. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS on Tuesday and they are 4-1 ATS when playing with 3 or more days rest. Houston is 6-14 ATS their last 20 as road underdogs and they are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games as underdogs of 5.0 to 10.5. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games vs. Pacific Division teams.

LT Profits

Suns / Blazers Under 201

Believe it or not, the Phoenix Suns should be improved on defense this season after simply trying to outscore teams in recent seasons, while the Portland Trail Blazers should be as defensive minded as they have always been, so look for these clubs to go ‘under’ on opening night.

The bookmakers have set a betting line of 201 for the total in this contest.

Yes, the Sins still have one of the best point guards of all time in Steve Nash running the point, but losing Amare Stoudemire to the New York Knicks is a big loss for the offense. At the same time, his departure actually helps the defense, as Stoudemire was a terrible defender. The Suns brought in a couple of players to take over Amare’s minutes, and while all are better defenders, none of them will pick up the lost scoring slack individually.

The most significant addition is Hedo Turkoglu, but he is better suited to the point forward role than as a go-to type, and he will be asked to be the latter as long as Nash is still around to run the show. Robin Lopez should also see increased playing time, and he offers defense and shot-blocking but not much offense yet. Other additions are Hakim Warrick and Josh Childress, neither of whom can take over a game offensively but both of whom can defend a bit.

As for the Blazers, they were a solid defensive team last season allowing only 94.8 points per game despite plating in the more wide open Western Conference, and that doesn’t figure to change this season. Furthermore, they played slightly better defense here at home last year, allowing 93.6 points per game in this building with those contests averaging a combined 191.9 points, nearly 10 points less than this posted total.

Finally, the ‘under’ was 6-2-1 in all the head-to-head meetings between these teams last season despite the Suns being the most prolific scoring team in the league, with those nine games averaging 197.1 points, still safely below this total.

Look for an ‘under’ here in the season opener for both clubs.

Scott Spreitzer

Phoenix @ Portland
PICK: Phoenix +7.5

The loss of Amare Stoudemire to the Knicks breaks up one of the best pick-and-roll combinations we have seen in some time. It's also lowered the Suns' expectations dramatically as they start this season...at least as far as the media is concerned. And Steve Nash may be right when he said it's going to be tough for Phoenix to compete deep into the playoffs without size. But that's down the road. As far as tonight's contest is concerned, I believe we'll see the Suns playing at a top level. Alvin Gentry says his team will still push the tempo. And why not? Robin Lopez looked strong from mid-January through March, before suffering a back injury. He played pretty well again in the conference finals. But with all the changes that have been made to the roster, if I were a Phoenix fan, I'd be most excited about the arrival of Hedo Turkoglu. He was never a good fit in Toronto, but we saw just how effective he can be when he was with Orlando. He's now in a spot where he could really flourish, drawing off of Nash's passing. I expect the new-look Suns to give the banged-up Trail Blazers all they can handle tonight. The Blazers will be without the services of Greg Oden (knee), and Joel Przybilla (knee). This leaves the middle to veteran Marcus Camby, who won't have much help behind him. And then there's the fragile relationship between Brandon Roy and Andre Miller to deal with on and off the floor. Not exactly a great situation heading into the opener as a decent-sized favorite. I believe the Suns will take this one right to the wire as far as the SU winner is concerned, giving us plenty of room inside the number. The Suns finished last season on a 36-14-1 ATS run, and although there are some different spokes in the wheel, I believe they'll still be a thorn in Portland's side. I'm taking the points with the Suns on Tuesday night.

DAVID CHAN

Louisiana Tech @ Boise St.
PICK: Louisiana Tech +38

It's not often a team that gained 683 yards in their last game is close to a 40-point underdog in their next game.

That's the case, though, with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are at No. 2 ranked Boise State tonight. It's the first time the Broncos have ever hosted a Tuesday night game.

No doubt Boise State is going to score a lot of points. The Broncos have the fourth-ranked offense in the country. Louisiana Tech gives up 448.7 yards per game, ranking 113th. But the Bulldogs aren't that bad when it comes to scoring defense, ranking 69th allowing 26.6 points per game.

The key here is that the Bulldogs have come on enough offensively to keep within this large spread. There were problems early as the Bulldogs adjusted to new coach Sonny Dykes and his spread offense.

But senior Ross Jenkins has solidified a wide open quarterback race by putting together two strong games in a row. He's thrown for 571 yards and four touchdowns during this span. Louisiana Tech is averaging nearly 400 yards per game.

The Bulldogs gave Boise State a slight scare last year trailing only 30-28 in the fourth quarter before losing 45-35 as 20-point home 'dogs.

Louisiana Tech defeated Idaho, a bowl team last season, 48-35 in its last game. The Bulldogs played six bowl teams last season and didn't lose by more than 24 points to any of them, including losing by only eight to LSU and by two to Fresno State.

Jim Feist

Rockets vs. Lakers
Take: Over 195½

The Rockets allowed an average of 11.5 second-chance points in the last two preseason games, and the Lakers have the biggest frontcourt in the West. Happily for the Lakers, winning a title persuaded ownership not to dump Lamar Odom, leaving them with two multi-talented bigs even if one of their three is out. Have to back the home team at this price. Both teams are loaded with offensive options inside and out, especially with Yao Ming back for LA. Play the Rockets/Lakers Over the total.

James Patrick Sports

Heat vs. Celtics

Boston is trying to win it now as evidenced by the signing of Shaq. This team will not be fearful and will prove to be Miamis biggest competitors for the Title run. They are strongest at Miamis weaknesses (Point Guard and Man in the Middle). It's Opening Night and we look for points a plenty as these rivals feel each other out. Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection is Miami - Boston Over the Total.

EZWINNERS

Boise State Broncos -37.5

This number is very high considering that Louisiana Tech rolled up 683 total yards last week in their win over Idaho, but Boise has been a covering machine and I look for that trend to continue tonight. The Broncos are know for their high powered offense, but it there defense is also on of the best in the nation and I look for that unit to shutdown the Bulldogs offense in this game. The Broncos won't admit that they need to win big for style points, but the truth is that they really do. They keep getting jumped by other teams in the BCS standing and they really only have one quality opponent left on their schedule when they visit Nevada later in the year. Look for another blow out win here. Lay the points.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers

Playing against the reigning NBA champs on opening night has been a money making angle over the last four years, with the champion going 0-4 ATS. That includes the Lakers last year as they could not cover against the Clippers. Expect the celebration to have LA coming out flat for this one and a good Rockets team will be able to hang within the number.

Play on: Houston

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Miami Heat +1

The Heat will waste no time showing the rest of the league that they are the team to beat. With LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh leading the charge, the Heat will have the younger, more athletic and more talented team on the floor tonight. While Mike Miller is expected to be out until January, that doesn't hurt the Heat as much as Boston will be hurt by the absence of center Kendrick Perkins. He is one of the premier interior defenders in the game. Without him in the paint to deter Miami drivers, I expect the Heat to go to the basket early and often tonight. The Heat will also be out for some revenge after getting knocked out of the postseason by Boston a year ago. Boston plays good team defense, but Miami just has too many weapons now. Boston couldn't defend all of LA's weapons in last season's Finals, and it won't be able to defend all of Miami's tonight. Take Miami.

Tony George

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics -1

While all the hype is around the super trio of Wade, James and Bosh, have no doubts the Eastern Conference champions of 2009 know how to handle this. As a matter of fact the Books are Begging YOU TO TAKE Miami here with this line, and no doubt one of the cheaper lines you are going get Miami at anytime soon if you want to lay a bucket or less with them on the road or at home. Lest we all not forget what the Celtics did to Wade and James led teams last year. The managed to get over on the Cavs 4-2 and the Heat 4-1. Boston is a veteran team, at home, and the weight of the world and hefty expectations on Miami here, and they have no answer for Rondo up top in my opinion. While Shaq makes his debut, his presence is not a major force as in years past, I think the backcourt of Boston makes a difference here at home is a small upset win at home to open the season.

Rocketman

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics -1

There is no doubt in my mind that the Miami Heat is going to be a major force to be reckoned with this season and most likely will win it all. But, the Big 3 hasn't had the chance to play much together in the preseason so it still may take some extra time for them to figure each other out. Boston is 73-29 SU at home the past 3 years. Boston has won 10 of the last 12 meetings against Miami including a perfect 6-0 SU at home the past 3 years. My power ratings has Boston to win this game outright by 4 points. We'll recommend a small play on Boston tonight!

Craig Trapp

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics -1

The Celtics quietly had a great offseason. Boston is loaded after a great finals run in 2009. This game will come down to Rondo as when he plays well this Celts teams is nearly unbeatable. Even better tonight the Heat are a new group where as Boston is a true team. Boston started last year with big win in CLE as underdogs and tonight will beat Lebron his new Heat team.

Rob Vinciletti

Phoenix Suns vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -7.5

Phoenix comes in without power forward A.Stoudamire here. This may hurt Phoenix more than people think even with S. Nash returning for what he hopes will be another playoff Achieving team. The Suns even with Stoudamire were a dismal 1-13 straight up an 4-10 ats as a road dog from +6.5 to +9. Tonight they take On Portland team that hops court leader B. Roy will stay healthy all year and lead the deep into the post season. The Blazers were a solid 12-3 straight up and 11-4 ats at home with a total of 200 to 205 last year. Portland looks to be a good play here tonight in their home opener.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Phoenix Suns +7.5

Phoenix handled the Blazers in last season's playoffs, and it should be able to keep things within the number tonight. I believe this line is an overreaction to the loss of Amare Stoudemire. Steve Nash is still playing at a high level, and I'm expecting a big game from him this evening. Plus, Robin Lopez is now healthy and Hedo Turkoglu was a key pickup. The Blazers still have a couple key players banged up in Greg Oden and Nicolas Batum, and I believe they'll really miss Jerryd Bayless. The Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this matchup. The Suns are also an impressive 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog while the Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Take the Suns.