SPORTS WAGERS
NBA FUTURES
Memphis Grizzlies over 39½
Well, color us surprised when this win total came out. The Memphis Grizzlies were one of the most improved teams in the NBA last year, finishing the season at 40-42 despite starting the year with a 1-8 record. Memphis went 37-25 (a .596 winning percentage) in the 62 games following that horrendous start and had Zach Randolph make his first ever all star team before fading down the stretch. The Grizzlies had a quiet offseason, resigning Rudy Gay to a five-year deal, drafting first rounder’s Xavier Henry and Grevies Vasquez and adding former Celtic Tony Allen. Nevertheless, the books don’t seem to be sold on the additions Memphis has made despite having a rock solid starting five, a deep bench and another year of continuity and chemistry under Coach Lionel Hollins. The Grizzlies are a young team whose goal this year is to make the playoffs and that’s certainly a realistic goal. But the beauty of this wager is that the Grizzlies don’t even have to have a winning season for this bet to cash; even if Gay, Mayo, Conley, Thabeet, and Gasol don’t make any (logical) progress over last year, it’s still the exact same team that won 40 games with the same coach and general manager. Furthermore, the West didn’t exactly get better –Phoenix and Denver are worse and only Houston can consider itself a playoff contender out of the Western lottery teams from last season. Take a 40 win team from last season despite an abominable start, add two first rounder’s, a deep bench, consider the Western conference weaker than last season and add the chemistry and natural progression of the five under 25 important rotations players and what you have is most likely a 7th or 8th seed for this Memphis team. They won’t be title contenders but this is certainly a beatable win total. Play: Memphis over 39½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Utah Jazz over 49½
Playing in basketball Siberia has made everybody forget about the talents of Al Jefferson. All the talk this summer is about the Jazz taking a step back because of the loss of Carlos Boozer but the truth is Utah actually got better because of it, not worse. The knock on Boozer has been his inability to score in the low post, a problem more than solved with arrival of one of the leagues best low post scorers. Jefferson was the focal point of the Wolves offense throughout his career, averaging 22-11 for two seasons before blowing out his ACL in 2009. He still averaged 17-9 last year despite playing only 32 minutes per game and is an upgrade, not a downgrade for the Jazz and their style of basketball. The rest of the roster isn’t too bad either, starting with Deron Williams who has to be in the conversation for best point guard in the NBA. Williams and Jefferson are going to be deadly on offense and that’s before talking about one of the most underrated players in Paul Millsap who is going to finally start after being one of the best 6th men in the league. Don’t doubt for a second that Millsap has what it takes to start; in his 49 career starts, he has averaged 16-10 while shooting 53.9% from the field. The Jazz also signed veteran guard Raja Bell, a massively underrated signing that fixes a position that has been a constant problem for Jerry Sloan. The Jazz gave away Ronnie Brewer despite his great defense because he couldn’t shoot – Bell’s defense is elite as well and he’s also a career 41.1% shooter from three. Andrei Kirilenko rounds up the starting five and while being overpaid he’s played for one coach his entire career and fits perfectly in the Jazz lineup. The bottom line is that the Jazz aren’t being respected because of the so called “losses” they suffered this offseason but a blazing pre-season and Sloan’s track record of 13, 50-win seasons makes this one of the best bets on the board. Play: Utah over 49½ +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto Raptors over 26½
The NBA is a U.S based league and the Toronto Raptors draw the least amount of coverage by not a small margin but a huge one. The perception is that the loss of Chris Bosh makes this team a lock to lose 55 games but that’s a ridiculous assessment. The Raps won 40 games a year ago with a bunch of young and inexperienced players and they’re not worse off this season. Yeah, Bosh scored points and he rebounded but he never could carry this team and he never made a game-winning shot. He missed them all. He has bad knees and frankly, letting him go was the best thing they could have done. Much like when Roy Halliday left the Blue Jays and the odds makers put up a ludicrous win total of 71 for the Blue Jays, this one fits into that same category. Now with Bosh (and Hedo Turkoglu) gone the Raps will build around talented center Andrea Bargnani, athletic swingman DeMar DeRozan and a host of solid role players like Linas Kleiza, Sonny Weems, Leandro Barbosa and Jarrett Jack. Kleiza returns to the NBA after a year in Greece with Olympiacos, where he averaged 17.2 points per game and won the Alphonso Ford Trophy as the Euroleague's top scorer. Kleiza is an excellent 3-point shooter and he’s also an underrated post player. The bench may end up being Toronto's strength with three solid players available in Barbosa, Amir Johnson and Jose Calderon. Barbosa, who was acquired in the deal that sent Turkoglu to the Valley of the Sun, remains one of the best sixth men in the league and is a perfect fit for the style of play Jay Triano wants to implement. "The Brazilian Blur" is one of the fastest players in the NBA, offers solid perimeter defense and excels in the transition game. Then we have the East with a slew of very average and below average teams like New Jersey, the Knicks, Detroit, Washington, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Indiana and Charlotte. The Raps will see a ton of these teams throughout and it’s very likely that the opposition is going to take these Raptors very lightly. They’ll not only win at least half of those games but they’ll also beat a few superior teams along the way that take them as an easy out. If everything goes wrong, the Raps still won’t lose 56 games because this squad is going to be better than they were a year ago when Bosh didn’t even show up on most nights and Turkoglu was a complete bust. The Raps will play hard all year with a wealth of young talent and they’ll also play with a huge chip on their shoulders. Play: Toronto over 26½ -1.25 (Risking 2.5 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida +1.38 over TORONTO
In terms of undervalued clubs, the Florida Panthers may be at the top of that list. This team is so much better than its getting credit for. They opened the year with that dreaded and very tough three-game trip through Western Canada. They lost its opener in Edmonton 3-2 but allowed just 13 shots on net and clearly dominated play. The Panthers next game was in Vancouver where they once again were the better team on the ice but were on the wrong end of a 2-1 score. They finished the trip with a fine performance for the third straight game and it paid off with a 3-0 win in Calgary. They returned home and proceeded to crush the Bolts 6-0. The Panthers subsequently split its next two vs the Stars and Islanders and now sit at 3-3 but have only played one poor game thus far. They really should be 5-1 and they’re not the inferior squad here. The Leafs have a 4-3 record and in two of its seven games, vs Pitt and Philly, they’ve recorded 14 shots on net. They won that game v Pittsburgh when in fact, they had no right doing so. The Leafs have scored four goals in its last three games and that’s really no surprise. After Kessel, the Leafs top-returning scorer from 2009-10 is Tomas Kaberle. We get the better team with a very nice tag in a game the Panthers have just as good a chance and maybe more of winning. Play: Florida +1.38 (Risking 2 units).
Buffalo +1.13 over PHILADELPHIA
Don’t ever count the Sabres out. This is a rock-solid team that almost always has an edge in net with Ryan Miller. Buffalo got off to a bit of a shaky start but have played much better on the road than they have at home. In fact, the Sabres have played just three road games in nine starts and have completely outplayed the opposition in all three, winning two of them. They lost in Chicago but deserved a better fate before they went into Atlanta and New Jersey and beat that duo by a combined score of 10-2. The Sabres catch the Flyers at the perfect time. Philly will play its fourth game in six nights, its third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs after a loss last night in Columbus. They have just one win over its last five games, a 5-2 victory on Saturday night over the Maple Leafs and it’s also worth noting that they have the Penguins on deck. It looks like it’ll be Bobrovsky vs Miller in a very difficult scheduling spot for the host. Even if all things were equal, the Flyers would still have a difficult time with the Sabres but all things are not equal for this one. Play: Buffalo +1.13 (Risking 2 units).
Phoenix +1.32 over OTTAWA
The Coyotes will play its third game in four nights and the tail end of back-to-backs but this team is use to a heavy traveling schedule because of its location. Besides, playing back-to-back in Montreal and then Ottawa is a lot less taxing than playing at home and than flying to the East Coast. This is nothing for the Coyotes and they also get back Shane Doan after he served a ridiculous three-game suspension. The Coyotes have just two wins but they also have three OT losses so in reality they could just as easily have five wins. In Doan’s absence they picked up points in all three games and it’s worth noting that they thrived vs teams from the East a season ago. Phoenix is not worse than they were last year either. They’re just as good, if not better and they’re just as hungry but a funk that’s seen them win once in its last six games has them very undervalued. The Sens are vulnerable. A defense (Phillips, Gonchar, Erik Karlsson, Matt Carkner, Chris Campoli and David Hale) that has trouble moving the puck out, defending or creating is a huge risk when laying significant juice and one that should be avoided. Jason Spezza is out, confidence is low, the whole team is fragile and they keep falling behind early. Until the Sens show us something dramatically different, we’ll gladly take back a price on the opposition regardless of the unfavorable schedule. Play: Phoenix +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
Dave Price
1 Unit on Suns/Trail Blazers UNDER 202.5
The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams as Portland has been able to slow down the uptempo Suns with solid defense. Plus, Portland is 85-56 Under in its last 141 games when the total is greater than or equal to 200. In addition, I don't see the Suns being quite as explosive offensively without Amare Stoudemire. Bet the Under.
Stephen Nover
Louisiana Tech (+37') at BOISE STATE
I love this game, so I'm not going to sit back and wait to release it, the game is available right now, along with two games on tonight's opening-night NBA card.
For tonight, though, I like Louisiana Tech as a huge underdog to Boise State.
This line is in the 38-point range, which is enough points for Louisiana Tech to cover.
The Bulldogs are going to give up a ton of points to Boise State and its fourth-ranked offense. But Louisiana Tech has scoring capabilities. The Bulldogs are averaging nearly 400 yards per game with their spread offense. Their offense is peaking with running back Lennon Creer and wide receiver Richie Casey off their finest games.
The Bulldogs gained 683 yards in their last game, a 48-35 victory against Idaho, a bowl team from last year. Senior Ross Jenkins has come on to stabilize the quarterback position throwing for four touchdowns and 571 yards during the past two games.
Jenkins was the quarterback last year when the Bulldogs built a 30-28 lead on Boise State in the fourth quarter before losing 45-35 as 20-point 'dogs.
Louisiana Tech met six other bowl teams on the road last year and the most it lost was by 24 points to Auburn. The Bulldogs lost by 23 to Nevada, by 18 to Navy, by eight to LSU and by two to Fresno State.
1♦ LOUISIANA TECH
Derek Mancini
Louisiana Tech (+37') at BOISE STATE
Before you bet this game, it would be in your best interest to last season's match up between these two WAC foes. But I'll save you the time, as the Broncos won 45-35, but failed to cover as a 20-point road chalk. In that game, we saw the Bulldogs put up plenty of points, behind a strong running game and some solid special teams play. What has changed this season? The Bulldogs offense is even more potent, putting up impressive numbers in their L2 games (both wins).
They key has been the improved play of Ross Jenkins, who may not have Kellen Moore type numbers, but is still highly effective in this spread offense. If there's any question he's mastered this offense, check out his 422 yards and 3 TDs against Idaho in his last one. Factor in stud RB Lennon Creer, and his 6 yards per carry average, and this LA Tech team is capable of covering a very generous spread tonight on the road.
Look guys, while Boise State is clearly the better team, the history between these two conference foes tells a different story... The Bulldogs are 6-4 ATS in their L10 meetings with the Broncos, including covers in two of their L3 match ups. The public is hitting Boise hard in this contest, but I think they've been driking a little too much of the Broncos kool-aid in this one. Not only are these teams infinately familiar with one another, but Jenkins and this Dogs offense is even more potent than last season - they'll be able to score enough to keep this game within the number. Louisiana Tech plus the points over Boise State Tuesday.
2♦ LOUISIANA TECH
Karl Garrett
Miami at BOSTON (+1)
Speaking of the NBA, how about a free play on Boston in this near pick as they host the much talked about Miami Heat this Tuesday night on the parquet floor.
Dwyane Wade missed most of the preseason, and I seriously doubt the cohesion needed to win in Beantown will be there for the Heat in this pressure-packed opener.
You know darn well that the Boston faithful and the Celtics will view this as a "statement" game, and with Rajon Rondo directing the point for the C's, and with KG inspiring the charges, you can assume the Celtics will be ready.
Boston is well familiar with LeBron James' game from his days in Cleveland, and the Celts are not intimidated by James.
I will side with Boston to get the pundits talking with the opening night home win over Miami.
1♦ BOSTON
Scott Delaney
Miami (-1') at BOSTON
Yes, there's a chance the Heat will be without Dwayne Wade in the season-opener, Tuesday night in Boston.
In year's past that might cause the point spread to be delayed, or even drop on the Heat a few points.
This year, it just means Miami is a pick'em at Boston.
Guys like Chris Bosh and LeBron James will do that.
Fact is, it really might not matter anymore, if or if not the team captain plays, as he's a mere piece to a bigger puzzle that is now glitzy, fast-paced and much more dominating with his two All-Star friends in the lineup.
And for the season-debut, I have to believe Bosh and James will be on full tilt, with hopes of making a statement to the world just how realt his contender is.
Miami has been installed as the favorite to win it all, and rightfully so.
The supporting cast is in place, the newest "Big Three" in the NBA is in place, and everyone seems to be on the same page for the 2010-11 season.
There's still a lot of questions to be answered, but for a comp pick, on a slow night, I'll give the Heat a shot just to win the ball game.
Take the road team on Tuesday night in this highly anticipated season-opener.
2♦ MIAMI
Chuck O'Brien
Phoenix at PORTLAND (-7')
The first NBA complimentary selection of the season is Portland minus the points at home against Phoenix.
The Suns advanced all the way to the Western Conference finals last spring, but they’re headed for a major fall in 2010-11. That’s what happens when you allow one of the league’s 15 best players to walk (Amare Stoudemire) and you replace him with a guy who played in Europe last season (Josh Childress) and a guy who figuratively didn’t play at all (Hedo Turkoglu, who quit on the Raptors last year). And Childress (broken figure) almost certainly won’t play tonight.
Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers are a team on the come. They’ve won 50-plus games each of the last two seasons, and although they bowed out of the playoffs in the first round both times (including losing to Phoenix last year), those experiences will serve them well in the future. Portland has a tremendous trio of guards with Brandon Roy, Andre Miller and Rudy Fernandez, and it has an accomplished scorer in forward LeMarcus Aldridge.
Even though Greg Oden can’t stay on the court and underrated 7-footer Joel Pryzbilla will miss the first couple of weeks with a knee injury, the Blazers still have veteran shot-blocker/rebounder Marcus Camby in the post. Besides, with Stoudemire gone, Phoenix’s front court is now a weakness.
After falling to the Suns in six games last year, I expect the Blazers to be out for revenge tonight. And it starts with Roy – who wasn’t close to healthy for last year’s playoff loss – taking aging Suns point guard Steve Nash (now 36 years old) to school. And by the way, the Rose Garden is an underrated home-court advantage, as Portland is 60-22 there the last two years.
3♦ PORTLAND
Michael Cannon
Phoenix (+7') at PORTLAND
For tonight’s freebie take the points with the Suns over the Trail Blazers.
I know Phoenix is going to have to adjust to life without Amare Stoudemire, but the Suns went out and signeed Hedo Turkoglu, Hakim Warrick and Josh Childress in an attempt to make up for the loss of Stoudemire.
My personal opinion is Warrick will be the best option for Steve Nash to run the pick and roll with because he’s so athletic and has major hops.
There is going to be some time before these guys mesh perfectly, but Nash is good enough to keep this group within the number tonight.
The Blazers are thin up front with Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla still out with injuries from last season, so I expect the Suns to be able to attack them inside.
Take the points with the Suns as they stay within the number.
3♦ PHOENIX
Joel Tyson
Phoenix (+7') at PORTLAND
As for your comp play, take the Phoenix Suns plus the points in Rip City tonight.
Phoenix eliminated Portland from the postseason last year, so the Blazers are thinking revenge on opening night, and while they may get that revenge, I don't see it coming easily.
The Suns are without A'mare Stoudemire, but the Blazers are still thin in the middle with both Oden and Pryzbilla starting the season in street clothes.
The underdog in this series is 5-2-1 against the spread the last 8 meetings, and Phoenix does own a money-making 36-14-1 spread mark their last 51 games overall.
I will look for the generous points to work in this one.
3♦ PHOENIX
Bobby Maxwell
Houston (+7) at L.A. LAKERS
As for my comp play, the Rockets have built themselves a very nice roster in Houston and will be a serious playoff team in the tough Western Conference. They are getting way to many points for this opening-night party in Los Angeles. I’ll grab the points with Houston as the Lakers are focused on their rings and the show of opening night after their championship.
Houston has center Yao Ming back and while his minutes will be watched closely, they have added a quality backup center in Brad Miller. They have the defensive minded Shane Battier to battle any superstars like Kobe and they have a guard tandem that is lightning quick and can both light it up in Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin.
Coming off the bench for the Rockets is forward Chase Budinger and guard Kyle Lowry who was integral to the Rockets success in the first half of 2009. His ankle injury is what hurt this team and caused them to struggle down the stretch.
This team will look to push the tempo against the Lakers because they know they won’t win a half-court game. Los Angeles gets its championship rings tonight and there will be a huge party before the game. Kobe has been off all preseason with his shot and this team is going to struggle with its guard play as Derek Fisher isn’t getting any younger or any quicker.
The Rockets went into Los Angeles last year and took a 101-91 win as nine-point ‘dogs and they finished the year by cashing in four of their final six.
I like the way this Houston team is put together and they’ll have the focus to hang with the Lakers today. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see an outright upset because I don’t think Kobe is 100 percent since his off-season surgery, I am still going to grab the points and play Houston. Go with the Rockets in this one.
2♦ HOUSTON
Craig Davis
Houston at LA LAKERS (-7)
Today I start a new betting week with an easy winner in college football and one in the NBA. Two winners, one low price. Get it now.
Today's free play is on the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers. There's so many people saying the "hype" of raising yet another banner is going to distract the Lakers at home tonight. The Lakers, distracted? I think not. The Lakers have one goal this year... defend the title and shoot down any hopes the Miami Heat might think they have of taking it from them.
Houston has been touted as a potential team in the West that can take it from Los Angeles, but until they do you have to believe the Lakers are the right play. And remember, the Lakers still tout one of the best NBA coaches of all time.
Phil Jackson has won 11 NBA Championships and has a .705 regular-season winning percentage, and while some thought he might retire this year because of health reasons, he came back despite a pay cut. The chance to win three consecutive titles for the third time in his coaching tenure was what ultimately enticed him to return for one more year.
Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Ron Artest... the crew is back for one more run at the title, and playing at home tonight will be the key to get them jump-started in the right direction.
Houston will be good this year, but it's going to take them a while to get going. Tonight, against the Lakers, isn't exactly the venue to start the season. I'll take the Lakers in a rout tonight.
2♦ LA LAKERS
Tony Karpinski
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -7.5
Go with Kobe and crew to pick up a win tonight in their season opener at the Staples Center. The Lakers have won seven of the last eight games versus the Rockets and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Rockets at the Staples Center. I like the additions of Matt Barnes and Steve Blake to their lineup and they are once again the team to beat in the NBA this year.
Wunderdog
Phoenix Suns vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Play: Phoenix Suns +7.5
The Trailblazers already have residual injury issues to deal with as Greg Oden and Joel Pryzbilla won't be in action. Rich Cho is the new coach for the Blazers and has surprisingly replaced Kevin Prichard, who did a good job a year ago. Even with all of the injuries the Blazers had to deal with, they still won 50 games. The Blazers have additional issues with Rudy Fernandez already being fined, and has made some derogatory comments about the Portland front office and wants out. That is not the best way to start a season. The Suns won 54 games a year ago and no longer have Amare Stoudemire. But as long as Steve Nash is in uniform, the Suns will be very competitive as he makes everyone around him better. Under Alvin Gentry, the Suns are 76-51 ATS including 58-38 ATS last season. There are too many negative issues in Portland and a new system to be laying this many to a competent Phoenix team. Phoenix has a chance to win this, but I think they at least keep it close.
Ben Burns
Phoenix @ Portland
PICK: Portland -7
These teams faced each other in the playoffs last spring. The Blazers weren't healthy and the Suns took advantage of that fact. The "revenge-minded" Blazers are (somewhat) healthier now though, although they're still without big men Oden and Przybilla. (They do have Camby.) Perhaps more importantly, they figure to be extremely motivated to serve up some "payback." Meanwhile, the Suns no longer have Amare Stoudemire. His loss figures to be significant.
Steve Nash had this to say of his team: "We have a lot to overcome. This is a league that when you get to the end you've got to have a certain amount of size. I'm not sure we have it....we definitely are an imperfect roster in many ways."
While preseason games need to be taken with a grain of salt, its still also worth noting that the Blazers were 3-1 in their preseason 'home' games and that the Suns were 0-3 in their preseason 'road' games.
The Suns are 4-10 ATS (1-13 SU!) the last 14 times that they were road underdogs in the +6.5 to +9 range. They're also 4-6 ATS the last 10 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range. The Blazers are 15-10 ATS the last 25 times that they were home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range and 11-4 ATS the last 15 times that they played a home games with an O/U line in the 200 to 204.5 range.
Lastly, note that the Blazers played tough defense on opening night last season, en route to earning a 96-87 win and cover over Houston. With the line having come back down from -7.5 to -7, consider the home team.