SPORTS ADVISORS
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East Carolina (4-3, 2-4 ATS) at Memphis (2-5, 1-5 ATS)
Conference USA gets its turn in the national spotlight, with East Carolina traveling to Memphis in search of its fourth consecutive blowout win over the Tigers.
The Pirates are coming off a 49-13 rout of Rice, easily cashing as an 18½-point home favorite on Oct. 17. Since suffering consecutive non-conference road losses to West Virginia (35-20 as a 6½-point underdog) and North Carolina (31-17 as an 8½-point pup), East Carolina has won three of four (2-2 ATS), with the defense yielding an average of 18 points per game during this stretch, including 14.7 ppg in the three wins.
Memphis followed up a mild 35-20 upset of UTEP with a 36-16 setback at Southern Miss, falling short as a 14-piont road underdog. The Tigers’ defense has been nonexistent all year, surrendering 27 points or more in five of seven games and yielding an average of 31.8 ppg to its six Division I-A opponents.
East Carolina has posted three straight double-digit wins over Memphis by scores of 35-20 (home), 56-40 (road) and 30-10 (home). The Pirates cashed easily in all three games – all as a favorite – and they’ve covered in seven straight and 10 of 11 in this series, going 4-1 ATS in five trips to Memphis. The host has won seven of 10 SU.
East Carolina is 1-3 SU and ATS on the highway this year, the lone win coming at Marshall on Oct. 3, a 21-17 triumph as a two-point ‘dog. Furthermore, the Pirates have failed to cover in 10 of their last 12 road games, and they’re on additional ATS slides of 5-13 overall, 1-4 after a spread-cover, 3-7 against losing teams and 2-5 on artificial turf. ECU has cashed in eight of 11 in October.
Memphis is 1-6 ATS in its last eight overall and 4-9-3 ATS in its last 16 in October, but the Tigers are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 after an outright defeat, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 after a bye and 8-4 ATS in their last 12 as a home underdog against C-USA foes.
The under is on stretches of 9-2 for East Carolina in Conference USA play, 3-0-1 for Memphis overall, 4-0-1 for Memphis in league action and 3-1-1 for Memphis in October. Conversely, four of the last five meetings in this rivalry have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: EAST CAROLINA and UNDER
NBA
Boston at Cleveland
Shaquille O’Neal makes his regular-season debut with new teammate LeBron James and the Cavaliers, who tip off the 2009-10 season with a matchup against the Eastern Conference rival Celtics at Quicken Loans Arena.
O’Neal was acquired from Phoenix via trade in the offseason and joins his fifth NBA squad, one that finished with the league’s top SU and ATS records last year at 66-16 SU and 50-32 ATS. The Cavs’ success was mostly due to the dazzling play of James, who won his first MVP award by averaging 28.4 points, 7.6 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game. Despite the regular-season success, however, Cleveland failed to get to the NBA Finals, as they were bounced in the Eastern Conference finals by the Magic in six games (1-5 ATS).
One year after beating the Cavaliers in a thrilling seven-game playoff series en route to their 17th NBA championship, Boston also saw its 2008-09 season end at the hands of the Magic, falling in seven games (3-4 ATS) in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Celtics, who didn’t have injured All-Star forward Kevin Garnett for their playoff run, finished with the second-best record in the conference and third-best in the NBA at 62-20 (42-39 ATS), and they cruised to the Atlantic Division title by 21 games over second-place Philadelphia.
Going back to the start of the 2006-07 season – and including their 2008 Eastern Conference semifinal series – the home team has won 18 consecutive meetings in this rivalry (9-8-1 ATS). Last year, the team’s split four games, with Cleveland going 3-1 ATS, including a season-opening 90-85 loss in Boston as a six-point road underdog. The Cavaliers are 18-6-2 ATS in the last 26 matchups with the Celtics, including five straight spread-covers at Quicken Loans Arena, and the home favorite has gotten the money in seven of the last 10 clashes.
Boston ended last season on ATS runs of 8-3-1 on the road, 3-1-1 against the Central Division and 4-0-1 as an underdog of less than five points (all on the road). The Celtics are also 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 as an underdog and 45-19-1 ATS in their last 65 as a road pup, but they have failed to cover in five of their last seven on Tuesday.
Despite ending the season with a 1-5 ATS mark against Orlando, the Cavs enters this year on ATS surges of 36-15 at home, 11-3-1 as a chalk, 13-4 when laying less than five points, 7-0 at home as a favorite in that price range and 22-5 versus Atlantic Division foes.
Three of the four meetings between these teams last year remained under the total, and each of the last four meetings at Quicken Loans Arena have stayed low. The under is also on runs of 4-0 for Boston overall, 17-8 for Boston as a road pup and 8-1 for Cleveland on Tuesday. On the flip side, the over is on stretches of 4-0 for the Celtics against the Central Division, 5-1 for the Cavs overall and 4-0 for the Cavs at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER
L.A. Clippers at L.A. Lakers
Kobe Bryant and the Lakers will raise another NBA championship banner to the rafters at Staples Center when they begin defense of their title with a designated home game against the Clippers, who will be without rookie Blake Griffin.
The Lakers closed the 2009 postseason on a 6-1 SU and ATS run, including eliminating the Magic in five games in the NBA Finals to capture the franchise’s 15th league title, including its 10th since moving to Los Angeles. Bryant followed up his 2008 MVP campaign with another spectacular season, ranking third in the league in scoring at 26.8 ppg to go with 5.2 rebounds and 4.9 assists per outing. Bryant also ranked second to LeBron James in playoff scoring, pouring in 30.2 ppg. At 65-17 (43-39 ATS), the Lakers finished with the best record in the Western Conference, one game behind Cleveland for the top mark in the league.
The Clippers are coming off yet another miserable season, as they finished 19-63, which tied for the second-worst record in the league, just two games ahead of the Sacramento Kings. The Clippers, who also had the worst ATS mark in the NBA last year (32-50), lost nine of their final 10 contests (2-8 ATS), with the lone win coming at home against the aforementioned Kings. Of those nine losses to end the year, seven were by double digits, including two embarrassing defeats to Utah (106-85 on the road) and Oklahoma City (126-85 at home) to cap the season.
The lone positive for the Clippers came when they won the NBA draft lottery and selected former Oklahoma star Griffin with the No. 1 pick. However, it was reported late Monday night that Griffin has a stress fracture in his patella tendon in his left knee and could be sidelined up to six weeks.
The Lakers have swept the last two season series from their rivals, winning all eight games, including seven by double digits. But after cashing in the first six of those eight, the Lakers failed to cover in the final two clashes last year, both as a massive 16-point favorite, winning 108-97 and 88-85. The Lakers’ 6-2 ATS run against the Clips has all come from the favorite role.
In addition to finishing last year in a 2-8 ATS nosedive, the Clippers are on addition pointspread purges of 7-19 as a road team (all as an underdog), 7-21 versus the Western Conference, 1-6 as an underdog and 25-52-1 as a ‘dog of five to 10 ½ points. Although the Lakers covered in six of their last seven playoff contests, they’re just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 against Pacific Division rivals and 2-5 ATS in their last seven when laying between five and 10½ points.
The Clippers stayed under the total in five of their last six overall last season and 12 of 17 on Tuesday, while the Lakers carrying “under” streaks of 34-16-1 overall, 19-7 at home, 29-9 as a favorite, 8-2 against the Western Conference and 9-4 on Tuesday. Also, five of the last seven in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and UNDER
DUNKEL
East Carolina at Memphis
The Pirates look to build on their 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 meetings against Memphis. East Carolina is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-4).
Game 101-102: East Carolina at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 82.918; Memphis 75.344
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 7 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 4; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-4); Under
NBA
LA Clippers at LA Lakers
The defending champions open up the regular season looking to take advantage of a Clippers team that is 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Lakers are the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 20. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-10)
Game 501-502: Boston at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 120.648; Cleveland 129.676
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 9; 190 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 4 1/2; 187
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-4 1/2); Over
Game 503-504: Washington at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 112.030; Dallas 126.262
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 14; 205 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 8; 205
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-8); Over
Game 505-506: Houston at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 122.558; Portland 130.957
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 8 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 9 1/2; 187
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+9 1/2); Under
Game 507-508: LA Clippers at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 111.596; LA Lakers 131.762
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 20; 206 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 10; 208
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-10); Under
NHL
Detroit at Vancouver
The Red Wings look to take advantage of a Vancouver team that is 2-7 in its last 9 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Detroit is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100)
Game 1-2: Philadelphia at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.271; Washington 11.879
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+130); Under
Game 3-4: Colorado at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 12.007; Edmonton 12.263
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (-125); Over
Game 5-6: Detroit at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.484; Vancouver 11.915
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100); Under
VEGAS EXPERTS
LA Clippers at LA Lakers
There's an "old wives tale" in NBA betting to always play against the defending champs on opening night. Last year, the Celtics did not cover against the Cavs. A couple years ago, the Heat put forth one of the worst efforts ever seen in its opening night game. With #1 pick Blake Griffin in the lineup, the Clippers have a lot to prove here. They covered the final two regular season meetings with the Lakers last regular season. Look for Kobe and company to "phone this one in."
Play on: LA Clippers
Alex Smart
Washington Wizards @ Dallas Mavericks o205.0:
The 2009 NBA betting season tips off on Tuesday night, and there are plenty of reasons to believe that there are going to be a ton of points hit the scoreboard in the Opening Night contest between the Wizards and Mavericks.
The Wizards didn't change a whole heck of a lot in the offseason this year, but they'll look like a completely different team with Agent 0, PG Gilbert Arenas back in the lineup. Arenas only played in two games last season, and it should come as no surprise that both ended up going past the posted number. Washington is a significantly quicker team with its point guard on the court. The additions of Gs Mike Miller and Randy Foye should also provide some better shooting for a squad that only went 19-62 last season. Last year, the Wizards only averaged 96.1 points per game against 103.5 allowed, but without a doubt, the points per game figure should explode well over 100 this year.
The Mavs kept PG Jason Kidd in the offseason, which should keep this offense running quickly. Fs Shawn Marion, Tim Thomas, and Drew Gooden also join the fold in "Big D." There really isn't a legitimate center on this squad, which will likely mean that the Mavericks will need to return to their roots as a fun-and-gun type of offensive squad. Kidd is the perfect man to be the catalyst. G Jason Terry is probably going to come off the bench, and he should be an early candidate for the Sixth Man of the Year Award. He's instant offense off the bench whenever Dallas needs it
In the playoffs last year, the Mavericks got it rolling quite a bit. Four of the five games in both of their playoff series' against the Nuggets and Spurs eclipsed the number. The last meeting between these two teams ended with a 119-103 victory for the Mavs. The 'over' has cashed in four of the L/5 meetings between these teams in Dallas. The Mavericks have cashed 19 'overs' against eight 'unders' in their L/27 games as a favorite, and they're 16-6 towards the 'over' in their L/22 home games.
Just three years ago when Arenas was healthy and played in 74 games, the Wizards averaged 104.3 points per game. They've got a chance to put up similar numbers this year. Jump on board with the 'over' in this one before the oddsmakers get a good look at them.
Play: Wizards/Mavericks Over
DC Riley
Philadelphia Flyers @ Washington Capitals
The Washington Capitals have started the season a strong 6-2-1 led by superstar forward Alex Ovechkin. Over the off season Ovechkin amassed 20 plus pounds of muscle to his already strong frame to prove a point to himself and set an example to teammates that this is there year. Ousted out late in the playoffs to the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Capitals great start has once again fell short to the defending Stanley Cup Champions and current overall points leader. Finding success at home early going 3-1 the Capitals host the very road tough Philly Flyers who will be walking in with there pride a little wounded after falling to the San Jose Sharks 4-1 at home. Head to head the Flyers have enjoyed a 2-1 LT3, 3-2 LT5 and 4-3 LT7 run against the Capitals. Overall in the last ten games the over-under has been 5-4-1 giving no real indication of where this total will go tonight.
Despite being a few weeks into the season this is a big statement game for both teams. Both will want to perform strong and show the Penguins who they need to be looking out for in another 65 games or so. Look for a very tight conservative affair with both teams playing defensive and physical. With key scorers from both teams (S.Gagne-Phi and A. Semin-Wsh) doubtful the all around offensive threats are decreased greatly. In the special teams look for Washington to be more effective in their Power Play opportunities as they currently rank 21st in the league. A tough task without there number one set up man and against a Philly team who ranks 4th in the league I like Philly to continue shutting teams down. Head to head the under is 5-0 LT5 and Philly is 7-2 under last 9 against teams with winning records. Washington when playing successful road teams at home have seen many more unders than overs.
With both teams wanting to be the best in the Eastern Conference and with both teams having great goaltending I see this being a playoff style game with little mistakes and under written all over it.
PLAY: Washington UNDER 6
MTi Sports
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Under
The Celtics are 0-7 OU (-12.4 ppg) before playing the Bobcats and the Cavaliers are 0-8 OU (-8.2 ppg) before playing the Raptors and both these upcoming games are tomorrow. Consider thee two UNDER.
JIM FEIST
BOSTON CELTICS / CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
TAKE: UNDER
What a great matchup to start the NBA season. Two Eastern conference powerhouses, both with expectations of the NBA finals for this year, both having bolstered their rosters in the off season. The Cavs found out in the NBA finals that their lack of size was too much to overcome. So what did they do? They went out and go the BIG Man of Big Men, Shaq!! With Shaq holding down the pivot position, the Cavs have something they have badly needed these past years, size inside. The Celtics have their starting five back in tact, the same five starters they won the NBA Championship with two seasons ago. And, like the Cavs, they went out and signed ex-Piston's forward Rasheed Wallace to add extra depth to their bench, something they were very inconsistent with in 2008-09. Both these teams are defensive powers and when you look at their recent meetings, the numbers support their defensive play. The last four meetings between these teams have gone UNDER the total. In fact, only one team has even scored more than 100 points in any of those games and just two times did a team get 90 or more points. With added defensive strength on both teams, don't look for this trend to change. Take the UNDER when these clubs meet up on Tuesday.
DAVE COKIN
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS / LOS ANGELES LAKERS
TAKE: LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
An old and very successful opening night play in the NBA is the "fade the rings" angle. The banner will be raised at Staples tonight commemorating last year's Lakers championship, and more often than not this is a bit of a distraction for the home team and a real motivator for the opponent that has to watch the ceremony. The fact it's taking place in the same building the Clipper call home adds fuel to that fire. The lowly Clippers may actually be halfway decent this season, at least by their standards and I feel they could be a good value team early getting huge numbers. That's the case tonight as they duel Big Brother, and I'm going to look for the Clippers to battle hard enough to cover the spot.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Boston +4' at CLEVELAND
47-40-4 with our free plays as we head into the opening night in the NBA.
The last time the Celtics and Cavaliers met, Cleveland mopped up the court on the KG-less C's, 107-76 in Cleveland just before the postseason started.
Cleveland has been able to win 5 of the last 9 straight up - playoffs included - while covering in 8 of those 9 games. Now the Cavs add Shaq to their rotation, and we feel this price is a little inflated.
Kevin Garnett and his mates are out to get the season started off on the right foot, and Boston does enter the season on an 8-3-1 spread run their last 12 road games.
This is a possible postseason preview on day one of the season, and at the end of the day we feel Boston is the better team overall, so mark us down for a play on the Celts plus the points.
Play on Boston.
1♦ BOSTON
Dominic Fazzini
Boston +5 at CLEVELAND
No free play Monday, but plenty going on today with the NBA tipping off its season. And that's where I'm going to find a winner with my complimentary selection.
The biggest news of this offseason was the Cavaliers' acquisition of Shaquille O'Neal, whom many people expect to help LeBron James win his first NBA championship.
That might indeed happen, but I think it's going to take some time for the two players to get used to each other on the court, and Shaq has already admitted he doesn't even know all of Cleveland's plays.
Kevin Garnett is back in Boston's lineup after missing the playoffs with a knee injury, and the Celtics gained more frontcourt talent with the signing of Rasheed Wallace in the offseason. With Paul Pierce and Ray Allen also around to shoot the basketball, and rising star Rajon Rondo running the point, Boston has plenty of talent to compete with any team if everyone stays healthy.
The home team has won 18 consecutive meetings in this series, although the ATS numbers are pretty split at 9-8-1. The teams split four games last season, with Cleveland going 3-1 ATS.
Although LeBron is still a force to be dealt with, I think Boston has enough depth and talent to make this game close, if not win outright. Take the underdog Celtics to cover the points tonight.
3♦ BOSTON
Bobby Maxwell
Washington +8 at DALLAS
Sunday night I handed out a FREE winner on the Arizona Cardinals as they went to New York and got the outright victory over the Giants. Today I'm giving away a comp play on opening night of the NBA as I go with the Wizards to get within the number at Dallas.
Washington did not have much of a season last year, finishing with one of the worst records in the NBA, but this team has got a talented roster that can put up points when healthy.
They aren’t 100 percent healthy tonight as Antawn Jamison is going to start the season on the sideline, but Gilbert Arenas is healthy for the first time in two seasons and anxious to get into a regular-season game. Also back in the lineup after battles with injuries last year are center Brendan Haywood and guard DeShawn Stevenson.
The Washington team we saw make four straight playoff appearances is almost back together as warrior Caron Butler is in the lineup as always. Butler’s scoring has improved each of the last five seasons, including last year when he put up 20.8 points a game to go with 6.2 rebounds and 4.3 assists.
Dallas has the same boring core unit as always with Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard, Jason Terry and Erick Dampier to go with veteran Jason Kidd. New faces include Shawn Marion, Drew Gooden and Tim Thomas. Nothing too exciting in that lineup and not much defense to speak of.
These two teams split four games last year, with Washington winning the first two, one home and one on the road, with the Mavs winning and covering the final two.
Even though they haven’t played together much in the last couple seasons, look for Washington to be a little more intense and fired up to get this one. Of course we’re grabbing the points with the Wizards as this is just too many to pass up.
3♦ WASHINGTON
Karl Garrett
LA Clippers at LA LAKERS -10
G-Man is not of the hebrew persuasion, but they have a saying; "why should this day be any different than any other day". That is exactly how I feel about this season opener between the Clippers and the Lakers.
The Clips finally got it right by drafting Blake Griffin with the # 1 draft pick, but Griffen is likely out for the first month of the season, and Baron Davis is listed as doubtful, which means the Clippers will once again be outmanned by a Lakers team that is likely to be without Pau Gasol in this home opener.
The defending champion Lakers do own wins in the last 8 series meetings, and covers in 6 of those 8 tilts. The only non-covers came in the last 2 meetings when Kobe and company were laying in the 16-point price range.
Ron Artest is eager to make his LA debut, and the G-Man feels it will be a successful one at that.
Take the Lakes minus the points over the Clips, as the series winning streak hits 9 straight.
4♦ LA LAKERS
Tony Weston
A very light slate on Monday keeps us from delivering a Comp Play winner. Two nights ago I came at it with the Angels and well, they’re back in Anaheim. But that’s ancient history as I’m delivering tonight as I’m taking the Celtics on the road at the Cavaliers.
Over the offseason the Celtics improved their team with the big addition of Rasheed Wallace. The Cavs, on the other hand, slowed themselves down by trading for Shaquille O’Neal. O’Neal has already been on record as saying he still hasn’t learned the Cavs playbook. And the team is without point guard and spark plug Delonte West.
On the money side, Cleveland has covered in just 1 of its last 7 games overall, all against the Eastern Conference.
Now they battle a Celtics team that has been a money maker. The team has gone 35-15-1 ATS its last 51 games when installed as an underdog and has gone 45-19-1 its last 65 when installed as a road underdog.
Overall, Boston covered in 8 of its last 12 games on the road and has gone 4-0-1 ATS its last 5 games when installed as a dog of between 1/2 and 4 1/2 points.
The Celts are doing it again tonight and will flirt with the outright win.
3♦ CELTICS
Tom Freese
Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche
Colorado is 6-1 their last 7 games overall and they are 4-1 their last 5 games off a win. The Avalanche are 4-1 their last 5 home games and the road team in this series is 5-1 the last 6 meetings. Edmonton is 4-9 when playing with one day of rest and they are 2-6 when playing their third game in four nights. The Oilers are 1-7 when playing their fourth game in six nights and they are 1-8 their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. PLAY ON COLORADO +
EZWINNERS
Houston Rockets @ Portland Trailblazers
Play: Houston Rockets +9.5
On paper this game looks like a total mismatch. The Blazers have a loaded roster while most people would struggle to name two starters for the Rockets with T-Mac and Yao sidelined with injury. One thing this Houston team does have is good chemistry and they hustle their asses off. The trio of Scola, Brooks and Battier should be able to do enough to keep this game within the number. Portland is still trying to figure out their rotation and how to mesh Brandon Roy and Andre Miller. Take the points.