Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Portland Trailblazers -9
Without Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady (injured) and Ron Artest (now w/ Lakers), the Rockets will be without a lot of scoring on the court tonight. Plus, Portland will be out for a little revenge here after getting eliminated by Houston in last year's playoffs. Also, Portland was one of the best home teams in the NBA last season going 36-8 at home (including playoffs) and winning by 9.4 ppg. The Trail Blazers enter the season 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. They have also gotten out of the gate quickly the last 2 seasons, going 23-10 ATS in home games in the first half of the season. Lay the number.
LT Profits
Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers
The Houston Rickets and Portland Trail Blazers went Over in all three regular seasons meetings last season and then Under in the last four games of their playoff encounter, which is not usual. Look for these teams to return to a more open style tonight.
The young Blazers loved to feed off the energy of the home crowd last season, and as a result they averaged 103.8 points per game in this building with those games averaging a combined 198.2 points, more than 12 points higher than this posted total.
It helps that Portland has one of the best point guards in the NBA in Brandon Roy, and that they also signed LaMarcus Aldridge to a contract extension. The Blazers should be an exciting team at home again this year, especially if center Greg Oden continues the improvement he displayed during the preseason.
Now the Rockets are without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, but the absence of Ming makes them weaker defensively, thus helping the Over, and they have become used to not playibg with McGrady over the years. There is a common perception that Houston is a plodding team, but the fact is theu averaged 98.4 points during the regular season last year with their games averaging 192.8 total points, safely good enough for an Over here.
All things considered, this total seems a tad short to us.
Pick: Rockets/Blazers Over186
Dave Price
1 Unit on LA Clippers +11
With the large majority of the betting public on the Lakers and with the line continuing to move because of it, I'll back the Clippers for 1 Unit catching big points. The Lakers will be distracted tonight as they are honored for last season's accomplishment prior to the game. Pau Gasol is unlikely to play in the opener and the Lakers figure to face chemistry issues early on as Ron Artest tries to find his roll. Plus, while the Lakers season ticket holders will be in the stands, Staples Center is home to the Clippers too, so I like them catching double digits in their home arena. Take the points.
Jr Tips
ROCKETS vs. BLAZERS
The Portland Trail Blazers lost to the Houston Rockets in the playoffs last season and the clubs will open the new season tonight at the Rose Garden with Houston having to play the entire season without its best player, All-star center Yao Ming. Houston will have to cope without Yao, former All-Star Tracy McGrady and Ron Artest who was traded to the Lakers in the summer. These are huge missing pieces and the Rockets have definitely lowered their expectation for the 2009-10 season. Meanwhile, the Blazers have high expectations as Greg Oden is set to become the starter at center after coming off the bench in the playoffs last season. Odens presence this year will causes a lot of havoc inside and create a lot of shots for Portlands perimeter shooters. The Blazers signed two of their star players to extensions as Roy received a five-year deal worth about $80 million and Aldridge signed a five-year contract with incentives will pay him up to $70 million. They will also shift the point guard duties from Roy to veteran Andre Miller, a 10-year veteran who brings needed experience to a roster that was the second-youngest team in the NBA last season.The Rockets signed Trevor Ariza away from the Lakers and he is expected to pick up the slack for McGrady. Houston will count on a pair of foreign big men in Luis Scola and David Andersen to pick up the slack as Scola averaged 12.7 points and 8.8 boards last season for the Rockets while the slender 6-11 Andersen was signed in August after a career spent mostly in Europe. The Rockets will also count on Aaron Brooks, who emerged to average 21.8 points in the games against the Lakers without Yao in l;ast years playoffs.Roy averaged 26.5 points in the series against Houston last season after scoring 22.6 points per game in 2008-09 to lead Portland while LaMarcus Aldridge averaged 19.5 points in the playoffs. The first game of the season for the trailblazers will bring a lot of excitement in the arena tonight as this Portland team is deep and talented. After losing to the Rockets last year and the Rockets needing time to get to know their new players, the enthusiasm in the building along with Portlands superior talent.
TAKE PORTLAND -9.5
ROCKETMAN
East Carolina @ Memphis
Play On: East Carolina
East Carolina comes in with a 4-3 record this year while Memphis is now 2-5 overall this season. Memphis is 1-5 ATS in all games this year. East Carolina is 11-3 ATS overall vs Memphis since 1992. East Carolina is 2-0 SU and ATS overall vs Memphis last 3 years. Pirates are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in October. Pirates are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.Pirates are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Tigers are 4-9-3 ATS in their last 16 games in October. Tigers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Tigers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0. Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Pirates are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Memphis. We'll recommend a small play on East Carolina tonight!
Game Time Sports Advisors
Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Boston Celtics +5
When the big 3 are healthy, especially Garnett, this team is just tough. All the talk this summer has been about Clev and Orlando, which is fine by the Celtics, and by the end of the year don't be surprised to see them sitting in the #1 seed in the East.
Jimmy Boyd
Washington Wizards vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Washington Wizards +8
The fact that Washington finished an Eastern Conference-worst 19-63 last season has odds makers overvaluing the Mavs tonight. This line appears to be one that represents where these teams were last season and not one that paints the current picture. With Gilbert Arenas now healthy, I expect he and the Wizards to be hungry to get this season started off on a winning note tonight. Antawn Jamison will not be in the lineup, but I don't think that deals the Wiz a big enough blow to keep them from covering this number when you consider that Caron Butler (20.8 ppg in 2008-09) is capable of having a big night. A consistent defensive effort continues to be a problem for the Mavs (100.1 ppg allowed last season) and chemistry will likely be an issue early as well with Shawn Marion, Drew Gooden, and Tim Thomas trying to find their new roles. This game means a lot more to the Wizards who have something to prove this season and I like them to keep this one within the number.
Wunderdog
Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Boston Celtics +5
The NBA season gets underway tonight with perhaps a preview of what many feel will be the NBA Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavaliers took a chance and signed Shaq to team-up with LeBron to hopefully put them over the top. The Cavs realizing that if they don't get it done this year it may not happen for a while as LeBron is free to walk after this season. The Celtics went out and got an insurance policy of their own signing Rasheed Wallace in case Kevin Garnett's balky knees flare up. The Celtics did a very good job a year ago on the road against the better teams in the NBA as they went 12-8 against teams with a winning record when facing them on the road. When you factor in the fact they lost only four of those by more than five points, you know that they will be right there down the wire, and getting points here certainly shows value. Boston has turned in a stellar 45-19-1 mark in their last 65 as a road dog, and I'll ride with them in this one.
Drew Gordon
Washington +8 at DALLAS
For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the opening night match up between the Wizards and Mavericks!
I'm not going to lie, the Wizards were awful last season, going 19-63 overall. But, as a new season begins, there's plenty of reasons for hope: Arenas is FINALLY healthy, new head coach Flip Saunders has injected some much-needed coaching prowess, AND new faces, Miller and Foye, have added depth and perimeter scoring. I'm not saying this team is destined to make waves in the East, but from a betting perspective, they're being grossly underestimated here. (Yes, I know Jamison is hurt, but the Wiz are a deeper team this year, and will be able to adjust).
Unlike the Wizards, who bettors are cold on right now, the Mavs suffer from the opposite problem. People are too high on this Dallas team, believing that the addition of Marion is going to solve all their match up problems, but I'm not so sure. Marion is on the wrong side of 30, and while his athleticism was able to cover up his obvious shortcomings in the past (inability to creat his own shot, erratic on the offensive end), his stats have declined consistently. Mavs are a good team, but not THAT much better than the Wizards.
Finally, with the season about to kick-off, average bettors are keying on last year's stats and trends. And while that helps somewhat, its more important to study the roster moves, match ups, and perception. Long story short, the public is loving the Mavericks in this contest based on last year's sorry-ass Wizards team - but buyer beware - the Wizards will be better this year, and they'll prove me right tonight.
Take Washington plus the points over Dallas in this NBA match up.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Michael Cannon
LA Clippers at LA LAKERS -11
I’m on a 14-2-1 clinic with my last 17 overall free plays.
Take the Lakers tonight as the big chalk over the Clippers.
The bad news for the Clippers is No. 1 pick Blake Griffin is out with a stress fracture in his patella tendon in his left knee and will be out up to six weeks.
It’s just as well because the youngster wasn’t going to make a difference in this matchup anyway.
The defending champs got even stronger with the offseason acquisition of Ron Artest. Now Kobe and company have an even scarier team for the rest of the league to contend with.
The Lakers have swept the last two season series from the Clippers, winning all eight games including seven by double digits. During that span the Lakers are on a 6-2 ATS run.
Take the Lakers minus the big number as they walk away with the win and cover.
3♦ LA LAKERS
Chris Jordan
L.A. Clippers at L.A. LAKERS
Going to play this one Under the posted total tonight, as injuries will be the storyline when the defending champs take the court with their in-town rivals tonight at Staples Center.
Clippers rookie phenom Blake Griffin is likely done for six weeks with a busted kneecap, while the Lakers' Pau Gasol sat out the final six preseason games because of a strained right hamstring, and is doubtful for tonight. Reserve Luke Walton, who gets significant playing time, has also been hampered by a sore back.
No biggie, right? Ron Artest is now in purple and gold, so defense could be the name of the game tonight, as the defensive specialist will be looking to slow the Clippers down. And keep in mind, last season the Clippers ranked near the bottom of the NBA, averaging 95.1 points a game.
Meanwhile, the Clips will need to slow the pace to control the most prolific player in the game - Kobe Bryant. Easier said than done, yes, but veteran point guard Baron Davis could be the key to keeping the Clippers in this one by controlling the tempo.
Delving inside the numbers, the under has cashed in five of the last seven meetings. Take the low tonight, as these two barely scratch the 200-point surface
5♦ Clippers/Lakers UNDER
Stephen Nover
L.A. Clippers at L.A. LAKERS
First off, I expect the Lakers to be very flat. That usually happens opening night at home to the defending world champion because it's banner and ring night.
It's also hard for the Lakers to take the Clippers serious. Phil Jackson didn't even bother to scout the Clippers.
The Lakers probably are going to be without Pau Gasol. Andrew Bynum is expected to play, but he's not 100 percent. This means extended minutes for someone named DJ Mbenga. He's not going to match Gasol's scoring.
The Clippers have their own injuries. Blake Griffin continues in the long line of jinxed Clipper first-round picks after suffering a broken kneecap during the final preseason game. Baron Davis has a foot injury. He may not play.
Marcus Camby isn't 100 percent either, but he is expected to play. That's good for the under since Camby has limited offensive skills, but could be the best shot-blocker in the NBA.
The Clippers could be shaken up about losing Griffin. Word about the severity of his injury didn't surface until late Monday night. The Clippers' concentration may be off because of it. Griffin's injury opens minutes up for Rasual Butler, DeAndre Jordan and Craig Smith. This is all good for the under.
The Clippers averaged just 87.2 points in four games against the Lakers last season.
3♦ Lakers/Clippers UNDER
Randall the Handle
WASHINGTON -½ +1.15 over Philadelphia
The Caps are the straight goods and with Jose Theodore back in net they appear to be even more confident. They’ve reeled off four in a row, they’re well rested and you know for sure they’ll be motivated for this one. The Flyers have played just one road, a 4-2 loss in Florida, in its last seven games. This is also its fourth game in six nights and they’ve also had to entertain their dads, who have come to Philadelphia in the Flyers annual father/son week. It’s a nice gesture by the Flyers organization but it’s also a bit of a distraction and thus, the timing for this one is just perfect for the home side. Philly is up 1-0 in the season series with a 6-5 home win but things are likely going to get a whole lot tougher here. Caps winning at home has to be considered a strong wager no matter who they’re playing. Play: Washington -½ +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit –1.03 over VANCOUVER
The Red Wings are in a real funk but there is no denying they’re on the verge of breaking out. They lost 3-1 in Colorado in its last but that is not indicative of how the game played out. Detroit out-shot the Av’s 48-20 and if not for Craig Anderson standing on his head the Red Wings would have won by three or four goals. Make no mistake, the Red Wings are still dangerous and will play their hearts out again here. Meanwhile, the Canucks have won three in a row and it appears as though Roberto Luongo has found his groove again. Still, the Canucks are having trouble scoring and they’re missing too many key players to sustain any kind of winning streak. Among others, Daniel Sedin, Kyle Wellwood and Sami Salo are all out and those are significant injuries to overcome. Vancouver is a very beatable team right now and hopefully the Wings can pop two or three past Luongo because it’s unlikely that the Canucks will score three or more. Play: Detroit –1.03 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
ATS Financial Club
3 units East Carolina Over