SPORTS ADVISORS
Detroit (86-76) at Minnesota (86-76)
The final piece of baseball’s postseason puzzle will fall into place today at the Metrodome as the Twins host the Tigers in a one-game playoff with the winner claiming the A.L. Central title. Minnesota will hand the ball to Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36 ERA), while Detroit counters with rookie Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.04).
The Tigers had a seven-game lead on Minnesota back on Sept. 6 when it scored four runs in the top of the ninth to rally past the Rays 5-3 in Tampa. After that victory – which capped a six-game winning streak – Detroit went on to lose 15 of its last 26 games, going 5-7 on the road. However, facing a must-win situation Sunday against the White Sox, the Tigers jumped out to a 5-0 lead and held on 5-3 to force this one-game playoff.
The Twins caught Detroit by closing the regular season on a four-game winning streak, starting with Thursday’s 8-3 victory in Motown, followed by a three-game home sweep of the Royals. In addition to the current winning streak Minnesota won 16 of its final 20 games, including eight of its last nine at the Metrodome. During the 16-4 season-ending surge, the Twins went 4-3 against Detroit.
These squads split a four-game, three-day series in Detroit last week, and they’ve split the last 10 meetings, all since the beginning of August. The Twins ended up taking the season series 11-7, going 7-2 at home. Furthermore, going back more than 10 years, Minnesota is 61-28 against the Tigers at the Metrodome.
Detroit enters this contest in slumps of 1-5 against right-handed starters and 27-58 as a road underdog, but it is 5-1 in its last six playoff games as a pup. Minnesota, in addition to its 16-4 overall run, is on hot streaks of 6-1 as a favorite, 71-32 as a home chalk, 20-6 against right-handed starters, 12-3 after a victory, 21-7 against the A.L. Central, 20-7 on Tuesday and 28-11 after an off day. On the downside, the Twins have dropped 13 of their last 16 playoff games, including seven straight postseason contests in the Metrodome.
Porcello faced the Twins on Tuesday and held them to one run on seven hits over 6 1/3 innings getting a no-decision in Detroit’s 3-2, 10-inning home loss. In four starts against the Twins this year, the 20-year-old right-hander is 1-2 with a 3.09 ERA in 23 1/3 innings. He went 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in the Metrodome this season, pitching just 10 innings.
Porcello is 4-1 with two no-decisions since Aug. 28, but the Tigers have alternated wins and losses in his last six outings. He’s 6-6 with a 4.20 ERA in 15 road starts, with the Tigers going 7-8, including 1-4 in the last five on the highway.
With the Twins staring at elimination, Baker faced the Tigers on Thursday and allowed one run (unearned) on five hits over five innings of an 8-3 road win. Baker also faced the Tigers at home on Sept. 20 and yielded four runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 6-2 loss. For his career, the right-hander is 5-4 with a 4.33 ERA in 16 career starts versus Detroit covering 95 2/3 innings, including 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in four starts (20 innings) this season. Baker is 6-5 with a 4.55 ERA in 16 home efforts this year.
With Baker on the mound, Minnesota is on runs of 8-2 overall, 6-1 at home (all as a favorite), 10-2 against A.L. Central foes, 20-7 as a favorite and 5-1 on Tuesday.
With Porcello pitching, the under is on runs of 4-1 as an underdog, 9-3 against A.L. Central rivals and 3-0-1 versus winning teams, and all four of his starts versus Minnesota this year stayed low. However, the over is 4-1 in Porcello’s last five road starts and 3-1-1 in his last five on Tuesday. Behind Baker, the Twins are on “under” streaks of 5-2-2 overall and 3-0-1 at home (all as a favorite), but the over is 17-6-1 in his last 24 starts against divisional foes, including 6-1 in his last seven versus Detroit.
As a team, the Tigers are on “over” stretches of 3-1-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 8-2-1 after a victory, 4-1 against right-handed starters and 11-4-2 on Tuesday. The Twins carry “over” trends of 5-0-1 overall (all against A.L. Central foes), 3-1-1 at home and 6-2-2 on Tuesday. However, the under is 4-0-1 in the past five Tigers-Twins clashes in Minnesota.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Middle Tennessee St. (3-1 SU and ATS) at Troy (2-2 SU and ATS)
Middle Tennessee State shoots for its fourth consecutive SU and ATS victory when it travels to Troy, Ala., for a Sun Belt Conference clash with the Trojans at Movie Gallery Stadium.
The Blue Raiders got drubbed 37-14 at Clemson as an 18½-point road ‘dog to open their campaign, but they’ve since ridden a hot offense to three straight wins and covers over Memphis (31-14 at home), Maryland (32-31 on the road) and North Texas (37-21 on the road).
Troy began the season with a two ugly non-conference road losses, falling 31-14 at Bowling Green as a seven-point chalk and 56-6 to top-ranked Florida as a 36½-point ‘dog. However, the Trojans rebounded with a pair of Sun Belt victories over UAB (27-14 as a six-point home chalk) and Arkansas State (30-27 as a 2½-point road underdog).
Troy is on a 3-0 SU and ATS roll against the Blue Raiders, including a 31-17 rout as a six-point road chalk in last year’s season opener for both teams and a 45-7 thrashing as a 13-point home choice in 2007. The favorite has cashed in six of seven meetings this decade, with the visitor going 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four.
The SU winner is 7-0 ATS in Middle Tennessee’s last seven overall, 7-0 ATS in Troy’s last seven overall and 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in this rivalry.
The Blue Raiders are on ATS runs of 5-2 overall, 12-3 when playing in October, 4-1 after a SU win and 8-3-1 following a spread-cover, but they’re also in pointspread ruts of 2-8-1 in Sun Belt games, 0-4 after a bye week and 2-5 as a road pup.
The Trojans are on ATS surges of 7-3 at home, 4-1 in conference, 4-1 in October, 6-2 as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points, 13-5 after a SU victory and 4-0 after a bye.
Middle Tennessee carries nothing but “over” trends, including 5-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 6-0 as a road pup, 4-0 in October and 4-1 in Sun Belt action. Conversely, the under is 4-0 in Troy’s last four at home (all as a favorite), 5-1 in its last six as a chalk, 6-1-1 in its last eight in October and 8-0-1 in its last nine after a bye. Finally, the last four series clashes between these schools have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TROY and UNDER
DUNKEL
Detroit at Minnesota
The Twins look to build on their 11-2 record in their last 13 games as a favorite. Minnesota is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155)
Game 931-932: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 14.485; Minnesota (Baker) 16.883
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155); Under
NCAAF
Middle Tennessee State at Troy
The Blue Raiders look to build on their 12-3 ATS record in their last 15 games in October. Middle Tennessee State is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Troy favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+7 1/2)
Game 301-302: Middle Tennessee State at Troy
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 81.702; Troy 82.665
Dunkel Line: Troy by 1; 53 1/2
Vegas Line: Troy by 7 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+7 1/2); Under
NHL
Montreal at Calgary
The Flames look to take advantage of a Montreal team that is coming off a 2-1 win at Buffalo and is just 3-13 in its last 16 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. Calgary is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Flames favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-160)
Game 1-2: Tampa Bay at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.743; Carolina 10.490
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-165); 6
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+155); Under
Game 3-4: Ottawa at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.616; Toronto 10.944
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto (-115); 6
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+105); Over
Game 5-6: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 12.534; Philadelphia 13.366
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); Over
Game 7-8: Montreal at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.627; Calgary 12.281
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-160); Under
Game 9-10: Anaheim at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.107; Minnesota 11.921
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-125); Under
Game 11-12: Dallas at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.539; Edmonton 10.654
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+135); Over
Game 13-14: San Jose at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.775; Los Angeles 11.685
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+145); Under
John Ryan
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Minnesota on the RUN LINE as they face Detroit in the “play-in” game today set to start at 5:07 EST. Supporting this graded play are several angles hitting strong winning marks. Note that Detroit is just 20-42 against the run line (-25.5 Units) vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season; 8-23 against the run line (-18.0 Units) versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. Minnesota starter Baker is a solid 17-6 against the run line (+14.1 Units) versus poor base running teams averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. Pressure on both teams to be sure, but Detroit is the one that collapsed and now they are in a very hostile environment where towels will be flying with every Minnesota success and every Detroit mistake. Take Baker and don’t be surprised if he throws a complete game.
Rob Vinciletti
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
The Twins have defeated the Tigers 7 of 9 times at home this year. Today they send righty Baker to the mound in this win and get in game. Baker is 17-6 as a favorite this year and 11-4 vs the AL.Central. In home starts he is 10-6. Detroit counters with rookie right hander C.Porcello. In his last outing vs the Twins Porcello was real good. However he has allowed 9 runs in 10 innings on 15 hits vs the Twins. Mnnesota has the added advantage of having faced his just 6 days ago. This appears to be a tough spot for a rookie pitcher on the road vs a hot team,in a building that's hard to win in. Look for the Twins to win and go to New York on Wednesday.
Alex Smart
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Carolina Hurricanes
PICK: Carolina Hurricanes
The Carolina Hurricanes (0-2) host a Tampa Bay Lightning(0-1) team that owned the NHL's worst defense last season. The Bolts started off their 2009/10 campaign struggling to keep the puck out of the back of the net again, losing 6-3 to the Thrashers. I'm betting things will not get much better for the Bolts tonight when they face a Canes team that has owned them in recent meetings as is evident by 7 consecutive overall losses in this series , and and 6 straight negative efforts in Raleigh. I know the Canes are off a embarrassing 7-2 loss to the Boston Bruins on the weekend, but now will very primed for redemption after that humbling effort. Look for Canes goalie Cam Ward to bounce back, and show us why he had the 8th best GAA in the NHL last season. Final notes & Key Trends: TB have lost 8 straight after a game with 9 or total goals scored losing SU by an average of 1.5 GPG....Play on the Carolina Canes
EZWINNERS
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
Play:Minnesota Twins -1.5
Minnesota is on a roll. The Twins won their last four games and went 10-3 in their last thirteen games to force this tiebreaker game with the Tigers. That is very impressive, especially since they had to go through CY Young candidate Zach Grienke on Sunday. Detroit limps into this game after not taking care of business at home against the struggling White Sox and they have only won four out of their last ten games. The Tigers now also have an off the field distraction to deal with in the Miguel Cabrera domestic assault situation. Scott Baker will start the tiebreaker for the Twins just as they would like against Detroit's rookie Rick Porcello. Detroit manager Kim Leyland made changes to the pitching rotation over the weekend that blew up in his face. Leyland had to send ace Justin Verlander to the mound on Sunday just to make sure they would get to this game. Now Leyland has to start the rookie in the most important game of the season. Porcello has pitched well for the most part this season, but he will be out of his normal routine pitching on extra rest here. The Twins are 7-2 at the Metrodome against the Tigers this year and I expect them to win here. Play Minnesota on the runline.
JIM FEIST
SAN JOSE SHARKS / LOS ANGELES KINGS
TAKE OVER
The Kings are not a strong defensive team, giving up 6 goals in their first game. A strong San Jose offense comes to town. The San Jose Sharks had little trouble getting on track against the Anaheim Ducks in a 4-1 win, with Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton each scoring first period goals, Dany Heatley adding two assists. Rookie Benn Ferriero and Devin Setoguchi also scored for the Sharks. When these teams last met, there were 7 goals scored and look for another offensive show. Play the Sharks/Kings Over the total.
Tom Freese
San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings
Prediction: San Jose Sharks
San Jose is 46-22 their last 68 games vs. losing teams and they are 49-24 after allowing 2 or less goals in their last game. The Sharks are 37-15 their last 52 Tuesday games. Los Angeles is 17-35-3 their last 55 games vs. the Sharks. The Kings are 4-11 their last 15 games vs. Western Conference foes and they are 1-5 off a loss by 3 or more goals. PLAY ON SAN JOSE -
Dominic Fazzini
Middle Tennessee State at TROY -7
I won my complimentary selection Monday, taking the over in the Packers-Vikings. Now I'm going to shine in the Sun Belt by playing Troy to cover the points in tonight's game against Middle Tennessee State.
The Trojans have won and covered in each of the last three meetings with the Blue Raiders, and they given strong showings the past two weeks, gaining conference victories over UAB (27-14 as a 6-point home favorite) and Arkansas State (30-27 as a 2 1/2-point road underdog).
Troy quarterback Levi Brown might be the best player in the Sun Belt. The senior has completed 63.7 percent of his passes for 1,097 yards and five touchdowns, guiding the Trojans to more than 500 yards of offense in each of the last two games.
And Troy's defense, which has six sacks and 26 quarterback hurries, can put a lot of pressure on Middle Tennessee QB Dwight Dasher.
The Trojans are 7-1 straight up and 6-2 ATS in weekday regular-season games since joining the Sun Belt in 2004.
Troy beat the Blue Raiders 31-17 as a 6-point road favorite last year, and 45-7 as a 13-point home favorite in 2007. The Trojans are also 7-3 ATS at home, 4-1 in conference play, 13-5 after a SU victory and 4-0 after a bye. Take Troy to cover the points again tonight.
2♦ TROY
Stephen Nover
Middle Tennessee St at TROY
This is a rare, but decent, nationally televised Sun Belt Conference game. Ordinarily a Sun Belt game would draw little national interest, but this is a stand alone Tuesday night game pitting the two top teams in the conference.
Troy has won the Sun Belt each of the past three seasons. I believe the Trojans still are the class of the conference, although Middle Tennessee State is a serious challenger. The Blue Raiders have won and covered each of their last three games after opening the season with a 23-point loss to Clemson.
I liked Troy in the minus four range. The line has gotten away being steamed up to minus 6 1/2. It wouldn't surprise me if it reached minus seven. Because the line has climbed so high, I would make only a token play on Troy or pass the game.
The Trojans' statistics are skewed because of a 56-6 loss to No. 1 Florida. There's no shame in losing to Florida. The oddsmaker has been undervaluing Troy since then, opening them too short in this matchup. The Trojans have rebounded to beat Alabama-Birmingham (27-14) and Arkansas State on the road (30-27).
Troy may have the best player in the conference, senior quarterback Levi Brown. The Trojans were idle last week and have an excellent history of playing well when in the national spotlight going 8-3 in televised games.
Troy is 7-1 straight-up when playing on a weekday, 6-2 against the spread. The Trojans have won and covered in each of the last three meetings versus Middle Tennessee State beating the pointspread by a combined 41 1/2 points. Troy has defeated the Blue Raiders by a combined 49 points during the past two years.
The Blue Raiders have failed to cover the past four times they've played a weekday game. They also are without injured senior running back Phillip Tanner, who scored 15 touchdowns last season.
Middle Tennessee State, though, very well could be the second-best team in the Sun Belt. The Blue Raiders have won and covered their past three games against Memphis, Maryland and North Texas State.
The situation, Troy's pedigree and its quarterback, Levi Brown, put me on the Trojans.
2♦ TROY
Michael Cannon
Detroit at MINNESOTA
Take the Tigers plus the run and a half tonight over the Twins.
I feel that this game is going to go down to the wire and I’m not convinced with Scott Baker pitching that the Twins can pull away in this game.
Baker is just 5-4 with a 4.33 ERA in 16 career starts against Detroit, including 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in four starts this year. The right-hander has been mediocre at home this year, going 6-5 with a 4.55 ERA.
Detroit will counter with rookie Rick Porcello, who is 14-9 with a 4.04 ERA on the year. The right-hander went 1-2 with a 3.09 ERA in four starts against the Twins this year.
The Tigers have enough firepower offensively that taking an extra run and a half with them makes them a no-brainer.
Take the Tigers plus the run and a half tonight over the Twins.
3♦ DETROIT +1.5
Bobby Maxwell
Detroit at MINNESOTA -160
It's one game for a shot at the postseason as these two teams couldn't get it decided after 162 games of regular season action. Tonight's FREE winner comes on the Twins as they are at home and on a roll.
This is a spot where you have to lay the big chalk and play the Twins. They were in this exact spot a year ago, only they were on the road for this one-game playoff for the division crown with Chicago.
Minnesota went to Chicago and lost 1-0, but the experience is going to pay off with a win tonight at home over the Tigers. The Twins come into this one on a high note, having won four in a row, while the Tigers lost 15 of their last 26 to let Minnesota get back in the division race. The Twins swept the Royals the final weekend of the season and won 16 of the last 20 games to get into this meeting.
Scott Baker (15-9, 4.36 ERA) is on the mound for Minnesota tonight at home, in front of a raucous group of fans, many of which probably just saw their beloved Vikings beat the Packers on Monday night in the very same stadium.
Baker faced the Tigers on Thursday and allowed just one unearned run over five innings of an 8-3 win in Detroit. He is 5-4 with a 4.33 ERA in his career against the Tigers. With Baker on the mound, the Twins are on positive runs of 8-2 overall, 6-1 at home, 10-2 against A.L. Central teams and 20-7 when he starts as a favorite.
Tigers' manager Jim Leyland is throwing rookie Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.04) in this one, who has been lousy in the Metrodome this year, going 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in just 10 innings. Detroit is just 1-4 in his last five starts in the Metrodome.
Minnesota is surging, has more complete hitters and has the home field. That is the huge difference in this game. Take the Twins.
4♦ MINNESOTA
Sports Gambling Hotline
Detroit at MINNESOTA
We are on a 41-29-4 comp play run.
One game playoff at the Metrodome today, and just like last night's OVER in the Packers-Vikings game, we like the Dome to see plenty of scoring again today.
Rick Porcello has struggled in a pair of Metrodome starts this season, allowing 7 runs to score in his 10 innings of work.
Likewise, Minnesota starter Scott Baker has made a pair of Metrodome starts against the Tigers this year, and has allowed 9 runs to score in 11 innings of work.
Both pitchers sport season ERA's over 4, and we have a feeling that some runs are going to be scored in this game for the AL Central title.
Play on the OVER.
3♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
Detroit at Minnesota -160
Comp play winner on Green Bay-Minnesota OVER last night.
Right back to the Metrodome I go for today's comp play, and it is a play on the Twins over the Tigers.
I know the price is a little steep, but you have to lay it, as I just don't see how the Tigers get a win on the road today?
Detroit had a 3 game lead with 4 games left, and blew it!
Minnesota is a whopping 7-2 at home this season against the Tigers, and they are 2-0 in Rick Porcello's 2 starts against them in the Metrodome.
Porcello has allowed 7 runs in his 10 innings of work this season at the Dome, and he has been hit hard on the road this season.
Scott Baker just tossed 5 scoreless in a win over Detroit to start October, and is now 15-9 for the season.
Have to lay it and ride the Twins express today.
1♦ MINNESOTA