Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 21

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Texas at North Carolina
The Longhorns look to take advantage of a North Carolina team that is coming off a 99-49 win over Nicholls State and is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games following a win by more than 20 points. Texas is the pick (+12) according to Dunkel, which has the Tar Heels favored by only 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (+12)

Game 741-742: Duquesne at George Mason (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duquesne 56.506; George Mason 64.004
Dunkel Line: George Mason by 7 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: George Mason by 5 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: George Mason (-5 1/2); Under

Game 743-744: Seton Hall at Dayton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seton Hall 63.980; Dayton 63.515
Dunkel Line: Even; 137
Vegas Line: Dayton by 4; 133
Dunkel Pick: Seton Hall (+4); Over

Game 745-746: Texas at North Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 71.802; North Carolina 79.489
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 7 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 12; 155 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+12); Under

Game 747-748: NC-Wilmington at Wake Forest (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Wilmington 51.580; Wake Forest 58.593
Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 7; 142
Vegas Line: Wake Forest by 6 1/2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (-6 1/2); Over

Game 749-750: UL-Monroe at Indiana State (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 45.446; Indiana State 59.310
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 14; 128
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 19; 133
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+19); Under

Game 751-752: Cornell at Penn State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 50.105; Penn State 60.445
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 10 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Penn State by 8; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-8); Over

Game 753-754: Central Florida at UL-Lafayette (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 55.683; UL-Lafayette 55.492
Dunkel Line: Even; 128
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 2 1/2; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (+2 1/2); Under

Game 755-756: Cal Poly at DePaul (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 60.343; DePaul 58.933
Dunkel Line: Cal Poly by 1 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: DePaul by 3; 130
Dunkel Pick: Cal Poly (+3); Over

Game 757-758: Oklahoma State at Alabama (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 62.542; Alabama 70.085
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 6; 125
Vegas Line: Alabama by 8 1/2; 120 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+8 1/2); Over

Game 759-760: Mississippi at Middle Tennessee State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 61.261; Middle Tennessee State 66.201
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 5; 129
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 3 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (+3 1/2); Under

Game 761-762: Fresno State at Arizona State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 52.334; Arizona State 54.748
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 2 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 6 1/2; 132
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+6 1/2); Under

Game 763-764: Kent State vs. TX-Arlington (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 64.047; TX-Arlington 53.213
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 11; 136
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 765-766: St. Peter's at Utah State (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 45.824; Utah State 57.613
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 12; 148
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 767-768: Iona at William & Mary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 62.376; William & Mary 45.924
Dunkel Line: Iona by 16 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Iona by 19 1/2; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (+19 1/2); Under

Game 769-770: Tennessee-Martin at Murray State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 42.051; Murray State 61.436
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 22 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Murray State by 23; 133
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee-Martin (+23); Over

Sam Martin

Louisiana Tech at TCU
Prediction: TCU

This line is a bit to high for us to release TCU as a premium selection, but we do like the Horned Frogs in this matchup. TCU has played very well this season, recovering from an opening-day loss at the hands of Baylor, which now doesn't look nearly as bad as it did initially, and then laid an egg against SMU. But they did beat Boise State on the road and have run off seven straight victories heading into the postseason. TCU is a scoring machine, putting up no less than 31 points in all but one of their games this year, and holding eight of their last 11 foes to just 20 points or less. Louisiana Tech has also had a good year but isn't built to keep up with that kind of scoring, and even with Houston on their docket this TCU team is the best team they will have faced this season. TCU should win this won by at least two touchdowns, and we'll lay the points here with the Frogs.

John Ryan

Louisiana Tech at TCU
Prediction: Under

This bowl has the longest name of all bowl names this season, but that is all that impressive to members of the TCU team and their faithful fans. TCU was all, but out of BCS contention early in the season with two losses. The first occurred at Baylor losing 50-48 and were installed as 3 point favorites September 2 and t he second loss was a real head scratcher losing 40-33 at home to SMU and were installed as 13 point favorites October 1. They then went on a seven game winning streak culminating with a fantastic 36-35 win at Boise State and were installed as 16 point dogs. That win got them right back in the BCS hunt. After overcoming the two losses and several key injuries their was won rule that the Horned Frogs could not overcome. In the BCS rule book, in order for a team from a non-qualifying conference to earn an at-large BCS bid, it must win its conference, finish ahead of one conference champion from an automatic-qualifying conference and be ranked at least 16th in the final BCS poll. The Frogs won the Mountain West and finished ahead of West Virginia from the Big East, but had a final BCS ranking of 18th. So, fighting back the way they did over the remaining seven games and then coming so close to qualify for another BCS Bowl and now having to settle for this game has taken a negative toll on the team. This is not to put down the Poinsettia Bowl, but it is a far cry from where TCU truly wanted and believed they should be this season. On the other side of the field though is Louisiana Tech, who is very pleased to be bowl bound after a long absence from December football. The Bulldogs have had an excellent season wining the Western Athletic Conference Championship. They have won seven straight games covering them all and are 10-2 ATS overall for the season. Ironically, an injury to freshman quarterback Nick Isham five games ago, gave redshirt junior Colby Cameron and opportunity to run the offense and the Bulldogs improved an already strong offensive unit. At the time of Isham?s injury, the Bulldogs were averaging 30.6 points per game and 397.5 offensive yards per game. Cameron has thrown for 1403 passing yards with 11 TDs and two interceptions in the past five games. With Cameron starting, the Bulldogs have averaged 34.8 points per game and 445.6 offensive yards per game. The Bulldogs rank 45th in the FBS gaining 247.1 passing yards per game and 41st averaging 30.6 points per game. The defense has played well too ranking 34th in the FBS allowing 22.5 points per game. TCU ranks 20th gaining 210.2 rushing yards per game, 60th gaining 233.8 passing yards per game, ninth scoring 41.7 points per game, and rank 30th allowing 21.3 points per game. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 55 points will be scored in this game. This line has been static, but I do believe that as game day approaches the line will be well supported for the over. At this point, I suggest waiting a few days and continue to monitor the news surrounding this bowl game and subsequent line movements. Getting 56 is a very real opportunity. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 40-12 for 77% winners since 2005 and has gone 27-4 under spanning the past three seasons. Play under with a neutral field game where the total is between 49.5 and 56 and a team that is outrushing their opponents by 60 or more yards per game on the season. Of the 52 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 29 of them or an impressive 56%, have gone under the posted total by seven or more points. Take the UNDER.

Tradeline Sports

Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks
Play: San Jose Sharks -182

Playing against National Hockey League road teams (Tampa Bay) coming off a road win by a single goal playing their first game in three or more days has been solid gold over the last five NHL campaigns. The trend is a 78% proposition over this span and is 1-1 this season.

Detroit Red Wings at Vancouver Canucks
Play: Under 5.5

Playing to the bottom side of a National Hockey League over-under on a team (Vancouver) with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 coming off a home win by two goals or more playing a team (Detroit) with a winning record in the first half of the season. The trend has been money in the bank, cashing at a 58-19 (75%) clip over the last five NHL campaigns. The bias is an outstanding 11-3 this season.

CAL POLY SLO at DEPAUL
Play: CAL POLY SLO 2.5

Backing College Basketball road teams (Cal Poly-Slo) that is averaging 63-to-67 points per game coming off a contest where there was a combined 115 points scored against a team (Depaul) that allows between 67 and 74 points per game on the season, this when the oddsmakers open the pointspread between +3 and -3. The bias is a rock solid 41-13 (76%) over the last five college campaigns and is 4-1 this season.

DUQUESNE at GEORGE MASON
Play: GEORGE MASON -230

Playing against a College Basketball road team (Duquesne) coming off an upset loss by 10 points or more as the favorite in a game between two non-conference foes from second ranks of Division 1. The trend is an amazing 31-3 over the last 15 College campaigns with a record of 4-1 this season.

Jim Feist

North Carolina-Wilmington at Wake Forest
Play: North Carolina-Wilmington

NC Wilmington (3-5) likes to play tough defense and a slow pace. Of their 5 losses, 3 were by 5 points or less. The Seahawks are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games. Wake Forest doesn't get up for smaller conference game, as the Demon Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400, plus 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Colonial Athletic Association. A great spot for the dog; Play NC Wilmington!

David Chan

Detroit Red Wings @ Vancouver Canucks
PICK: Vancouver Canucks

The 21-10-1 Detroit Red Wings storm into Vancouver to take on the 20-11-2 Canucks.

Detroit is coming off a 3-2 win at Edmonton on Monday.

Note that the Red Wings are in fact just 8-8 on the road after that victory:

"That's a stat we hear about a lot. It's nice to be back to .500," Henrik Zetterberg said after. "We didn't have our best game. They were skating a lot better than we did. But we kept grinding away and that's important to do on the road. It's a good start to this road trip as we have two more before we go home for Christmas."

Note that this is the second game of a three game Western swing for the Wings, with another tough one in Calgary tomorrow night.

Vancouver is also rolling, coming off back to back wins; it blew the Leafs away 5-3 on Saturday, and then a dominant 4-0 victory over the Wild on Monday.

Goaltender Roberto Luongo looked great, making 33 saves to earn his first shutout of the year:

"It takes every guy in this locker room to get a shutout, and the boys worked hard tonight to preserve it and make sure we didn't give up much -- especially in the third period there," Luongo said.

In its first home game after a four-game road trip on the East Coast, Vancouver moved within three points of the Northwest Division-leading Wild:

"Obviously, we came out and execution wise we might have been a little bit off," Vancouver coach Alain Vigneault said. "But that's why you've got a great goaltender. He kept us in and [enabled] us to find our legs and find our hands."

Note that the Canucks also play with "revenge" here after falling 2-0 in Detroit on November 13th.

In my opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value"; overwhelming factors all point to a comfortable home victory!

Sean “Paddy” Murphy

Blues @ Avalanche
PICK: Over 5

These two teams hooked up earlier this month, and the result was a 3-2 Avalanche shootout victory.

However, low-scoring games have been the exception rather than the rule in this series. Note that six of their last eight meetings have produced at least seven goals.

The Blues have scored 11 goals over their last three games, with 10 of those coming in a pair of wins over the Rangers and Blue Jackets. They were held to only one goal on Saturday in Nashville, but it's important to note that the Predators are playing some of their best hockey of the season right now.

The Avalanche have played at an extremely high level defensively over their last two games, limiting the Capitals and Flyers to a grand total of three goals. But this is the spot where I expect to see some regression in that regard.

Note that the Avs will be taking the ice for the fifth time in the last nine nights. It's not as if they're a defensive powerhouse to begin with, having allowed 3.0 goals per game this season.

We're able to play this total at '5' thanks to that defensive affair between these two teams back on December 2nd (all four matchups featured a closing total of 5.5 last season). Of course, that game has little bearing on the outcome of this one. Look for both teams to find offensive success in their second-to-last game prior to the Christmas break.

Red Dog Sports

Texas vs. North Carolina
Play: Over 73 (first half)

I like the over in the first half and here is my writeup. Be sure to check out our premium picks that have lengthy writeups and win at a 60% clip!

Texas has played some weaklings at home lately with games vs. Texas Arlington, Texas State, North Texas, South Houston and Nicholls State. They did just play Temple and played at UCLA (only true road game) but if you look back at the games earlier in the season you see plenty of points:

NCSU 43-33 (76)
Oregon St 50-45 (95)
URI 46-43 (89)

Even the game with Nicholls made it to 53-30 (83 points).

UNC has played home totals of 70, 80, 85, 74, 97 and 68 not counting the game with Wisconsin. They have put up 48, 48, 40, 52, 55 and 41 at home and even put up 48, 43 and 45 on the road. UNC gets 14.5 points or more from Barnes, Henson and Zeller.

These two have played three times in the last few years with the same coaches. Rick Barnes of the Longhorns is from the state of North Carolina and used to coach at Clemson, in the same conference as the Tar Heels.

The three games have seen halftime scores of 65 (in Greensboro where both missed plenty of shots and Larry Drew was the UNC PG), 95 and 83 points.

Texas is led by guard J'Covan Brown who played in last year's game and averages 19ppg. They also have guard Myck Kabonga and McClellenad who put in 11 ppg and Bond has scored 12 and 18 in the last two games. Texas is guard oriented yet young.

I think we see a game in the 42-36 range that gets to 78 and over.

JR O'Donnell

Iona -19.5

Iona comes in at 9-2 with their losses being to Purdue by 1 and a Marshall team on the road in a very tough place to play. They also have wins over Maryland by 26 (neutral site) a good Western Michigan team, St Josephs and on the road at Denver, Richmond and Vermont. Meanwhile W&M has only beaten a bad Liberty team and a NAIA school, while getting pasted by everyone else, including Richmond by "31" at home. Iona averages 86.2 ppg (# 4th nation) while W&M is 57.6 (#328th). Iona outrebounds them, and shoots 51% from the field (8th nation) to W&M 38% (#329th), which is a huge advantage. Lastly the W&M students are gone for the holidays, and there will be absolutely no home court advantage. Iona has the edge in the backcourt, frontcourt and bench/depth. Power rated @ - 28 points .

SPORTS WAGERS

Louisiana Tech +9½ over TCU

This is a disappointing Bowl game for a TCU squad that had BCS aspirations at the beginning of the season. Louisiana Tech had lesser aspirations and they’ll come in here carefree and loose. Should TCU not be 100% ready and take this Bulldog team lightly, they could lose outright. The Bulldogs haven't lost since QB Colby Cameron took over as the starter in late October. After losing four of their first five games, the Bulldogs ended the season on a seven-game winning streak. They’re bigger up front than TCU, they can definitely slow down the Horned Frogs running game and as long as they don’t lose the turnover battle, the Bulldogs have a decent shot of pulling the upset. That’s not to say TCU isn’t talented because they are. They have an edge at QB and all the most other key offensive positions but they don’t have an edge defensively. The Bulldogs bring some quality components to this game and they’re not the one’s giving up 9½ big points. Play: Louisiana Tech +9½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Matt Fargo

Cal Poly Slo vs. DePaul
Play: DePaul -2½

I think we have a big letdown factor in store for Wednesday with the Mustangs. Cal Poly has gotten off to a great start this season as it is 8-3 and it is actually the best start for the program in 10 years. The Mustangs had a solid season a year ago as they finished right at .500 including a 10-6 record in the Big West so this year's start should come as no surprise. The letdown factor involved comes from Saturday after a win against rival Fresno St., the first time they have defeated the Bulldogs in the last 13 meetings.

Since getting waxed by Wisconsin-Milwaukee, DePaul has won its last four games with two of those coming on the road so it has been a strong run for the Blue Demons. They have just three losses this season with two coming against Minnesota and Mississippi by a combined three points while loss against the Panthers was doomed from the start after Wisconsin-Milwaukee shot more than 80 percent from the floor and hit four straight three-pointers to open a 35-13 lead just 10:30 into the game.

This game features strength against strength as the Mustangs bring in one of the best defenses in the country while DePaul brings in a very potent offense. The Blue Demons are extremely athletic so playing an up-tempo game is in their favor and they will try and do that again here as they have scored no fewer than 68 points all season. They have put up point totals of 80 or more five times and playing at home should give them the advantage of forcing Cal Poly to play at their tempo.

After winning seven games a season ago, DePaul has already surpassed that win total and with this being the final game for the next ten days, we will see another strong effort from the Blue Demons as they gear up for Big East play. DePaul is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games after playing a game as a favorite and it is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a win. DePaul has yet to cover a game at home, going 0-2 ATS but the price is right tonight to snap that skid.

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia -101 over DALLAS

Upon returning home from a five-game trip, the Stars defeated the Ducks 5-3. Dallas jumped out to a 3-0 lead in that game before the Ducks tied it 3-3 after two periods. If a physical letdown isn’t present in the first game back from a road trip, you can almost count on one in the subsequent contest. Dallas is still relying on minor-league goaltender Richard Bachman. Despite winning four of five, Bachman is just not that good. He’s allowed nine goals against in his past two games. The Flyers own the NHL’s best road record with 12 wins in 16 games. They get a huge psychological boost tonight when leading scorer Claude Giroux makes his return after sitting four games with a concussion. The Flyers have dropped two in a row for the first time in a month. This is the second game of a five-game trip and after losing the first game, you can expect them to be back in top form against an overvalued Dallas squad. Play: Philadelphia –101 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

Detroit +106 over VANCOUVER

The Canucks have really picked it up lately with 11 wins in 14 games to make all their fans forget about their slow start. So let’s have a look at that hot run. Vancouver beat Ottawa twice, Colorado twice, Calgary, Phoenix, San Jose, Columbus, Montreal, Toronto and Minnesota. They lost to Nashville, Columbus and Carolina. In those 14 games against 11 opponents, they likely played every non-playoff team in the NHL. They did not play an elite team over that span. The Canucks have played just four games this season against top tiered teams, being Philly, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Detroit, In those four games, Vancouver went 0-4 with the most recent being a 5-1 defeat to the Blackhawks. If you want to include the Rangers among top squads, Vancouver also lost to them by a 4-0 count. So yes, the Canucks have a good record but let’s see what they can do when the competition gets stiffer. The Red Wings may just be the best of them all. Play: Detroit +106 (Risking 2 units).

BEN BURNS

Coyotes @ Hurricanes
PICK: Under 5.5

The 'under' is 7-2-1 the last 10 times that the Coyotes traveled to Carolina. I feel that this has a good chance of being another low-scoring affair.

The Coyotes saw last night's game at Florida finish with a final score of 2-1. Three of their last four games have finished with five or fewer goals.

I won with the Hurricanes 'under' the total in their last game, a 3-2 loss vs. those same Panthers. Two of their last three have now stayed below the total.

The Coyotes have seen the 'under' go 2-1 when playing the second of back to back games. Going back further finds the 'under' at 18-13-2 when they've been in that situation the past few seasons.

During that time, the 'under' is also a lucrative 44-27 when the Coyotes have played a road game with an O/U line of 5.5. Consider the Under.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

TCU/ Louisiana Tech Under 56: Both of these teams have scored a ton of points down the stretch, but these are also two very solid defensive teams. For the last several years the Horned Frogs have had one of the most dominating defenses in all of college football, but this season the group took more than a few steps back. TCU appeared to have put all the necessary pieces together, limiting Colorado State and UNLV to a combined 19 points, but up until then there were plenty of outings in which the Frogs were pushed to their limit time and time again. Overall, the program finished second in the MWC and 32nd nationally with 346.3 ypg allowed and 30th in the country in points permitted (21.3 ppg).This is still a good defense and with extra prep time Patterson will have his troops ready. The numbers for La Tech don't look all that impressive as they are 55th overall (374.8 ypg) and 34th in points allowed (22/5 ppg), but let's take note that during their current 7 game win streak they have allowed just 341 ypg and 14.8 ppg. Also helping this defense has been punter Ryan Allen, who finished the regular season ranked first in the nation in punts inside the 20 (37) and punts inside the 10 (20) and third in punting average (46.31 yards per punt), all of which gave the LaTech defense an advantage even before taking the field in most instances.. TCU is the top 10 in offensive yards per play (6.4), but the Bulldogs have allowed just 4.7 pg on the year (20th). On the flipside TCU may be just 49th in defensive yards per play (5.2), but they won't be facing alot of big plays in this one as the Bulldogs are 85th in offensive yards per play (5.0). When these teams do score in this one it will not be easy as both teams will have to use time consuming drives to score. I see this one at 48 or lower. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Under - Neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (TCU) - outrushing their opponents by 60 or more yards/game on the season. This play is 40-13 the last 5 seasons.

1 UNIT PLAY

Louisiana Tech +9 over TCU: Motivation. That's a big word in the world of CFB bowls. The Last 2 years TCU has played in the Rose Bowl and Fiesta bowl in a couple of BCS bowls and now must take on ma much lesser opponent in a much lesser bowl. I cannot see how this team will be up for this one. LA Tech on the other hand is thrilled to be in this bowl, especially after a 1-4 start to the year. The Bulldogs finished strong down the stretch as they have won 7 in a row and they allowed 14.8 ppg over that stretch, compared to allowing 33.2 ppg over their first 5 games of the year. This game should be rated higher, BUT i have it as a lesser play as motivation could work the other way here as TCU may look to blow this team out and show the BCS that they deserved to play in one of their bowls. I don't think they will though. Look for the La. Tech defense to keep this one close.