JEFF BENTON
Your Wednesday freebie is the Oklahoma State Cowboys plus the points as they face Alabama in a game being played in Birmingham.
Obviously the Tide still will enjoy the "home court" advantage, but this game is not being played on Alabama's true home court, so I don't fully trust Anthony Grant's team laying such a big number.
Alabama has struggled this month, as the Tide has dropped three of their four games this month, and their pointspread drought has reached five straight, as 'Bama has dropped each of their last five games versus the math - all in the role of favorite.
Travis Ford's team is in a rebuilding-mode this season, but the Cowboys have shown some fire, covering three of their last four games when installed as the underdog. State also beat Alabama last December in Stillwater, defeating the Tide 68-60 as the five-point home favorite.
Alabama to get their revenge, but against the spread it will be Oklahoma State that cashes at the ticket window.
3♦ OKLAHOMA STATE
NHL Predictions
Chicago Blackhawks -170
The Canadiens are losers of 3 straight games, with their latest a 3-2 loss in Boston. Montreal is just 13-14-7 on the season. Tonight Peter Budaj will give Carey Price a break. Budaj is 1-3 on the season with a 2.50 GAA and .914 SV%. The Chicago Blackhawks have 8 more wins on the season than the Habs with a 21-9-4 record. At home the Blackhawks are a stellar 11-2-3. Corey Crawford looks to finally get a start after 6 straight games on the bench. Crawford who finished last season with 33 wins and a 2.30 GAA has had his struggles in net posting a 3.00 GAA but still has a winning 12-7-2 record. Chicago is on a back to back after a 3-2 loss in Pittsburgh last night breaking their 5 game winning streak. Chicago has won 7 of their last 9 games, and got points in 8 of those 9. Playing the second of a back to back at home after the first being on the road has actually been good for Chicago. This year they are 3-0 in those situations and last season they were 5-3, for a combined 8-3 record. Chicago is averaging 3.63 goals per game at home, while the Canadiens are scoring just 2.19 goals per game on the road. In their last 5 games the Canadiens are giving up an average 3.20 goals against per game. Take note that the Canadiens have won just 3 of their last 12, and are 1-9 in their last 10 games as an underdog. The Canadiens are also just 1-4 in their last 5 vs Western Conference opponents. Chicago is a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 vs a team with a winning % below .400 and are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Playing in their 4th game in 6 days doesn't both the Blackhawks, as they are 8-3 in their last 11 times in that situation. I look for Chicago to bounce back at home against a struggling Montreal team.
Larry Ness
DePaul -3
Cal Poly and DePaul both enter this game at 8-3. The Mustangs finished 10-6 in the Big West (2nd) last year but then lost their first game in the conference tourney, falling to UC-Riverside, a team they had beaten twice during the regular season. The 6-4 Lewis (15.2-5.5) is gone but four other starters returned. However, not all four are part of TY's team. The 6-5 Hanson (11.0-4.5) has returned to lead the team (barely) in scoring while two players injured last year, PG Fermin (10.1-3.1-4.4) and the 6-7 Taylor (9.6-7.4) have made excellent contributions. Two guards who both averaged less than 3.0 PPG last season, Royer (8.0) and U'u (7.7-4.5), have been nice surprises. This is defensive oriented team, allowing 53.5 PPG (ranks 6th in the nation). That D will be tested here vs DePaul, which averages 79.2 PPG on the season, including 83.0 PPG at home. I'm not an Oliver Purnell fan but the Blue Demons have done well this year, despite missing some key players. The 6-9 Kirk (a Miami transfer) remains out due to back problems, while the 6-7 Freeland (9.6 PPG last season) is out for the season with a shoulder injury, as is freshman Montray Clemons (knee). The team is led by the 6-8 Melvin (18.7-6.4) and guard Young (17.5-4.6 APG), two sophomores who will be the two-best players on the floor. I'll take the Big East team (on its home floor) over the Big West at this price.
Steve Janus
Dayton -3½
While Seton Hall comes into this game riding a six-game winning streak and are 9-1 overall, I believe the right play is on Dayton -3.5. A lot of the public will look and see Dayton is just 8-3 with a couple of bad losses and jump all over Seton Hall and the points. If the oddsmakers didn't think Dayton had a strong chance of winning this game, they wouldn't list them as a favorite.
Two things to consider on why Dayton deserves some action on Wednesday.
The Flyers went on the road and beat Seton Hall 69-65 last year. Not only will Dayton be confident they can win, they are going to be very motivated to put an end to the Pirates winning streak.
The big thing is the fact that Seton Hall will be playing their first true road game of the season. They have played three neutral games, one of which they lost by 7-points to Northwestern.
The Pirates are 1-8 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots over the last 2 seasons and 1-9 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
Dayton is 10-2 ATS in December games over the last 3 seasons, 21-7 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games, and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big East.
Bryan Power
Tampa Bay Lightning @ San Jose Sharks
PICK: San Jose Sharks
Despite BTB wins over Calgary & Columbus, I'm not buying the Lightning's chances at all tonight on the West Coast against a much better Sharks team. This is the 1st time in over three weeks that Tampa Bay has won BTB games as they had lost seven of eight previously. The team is still -20 in goal differential for the year and wins over the Flames and Blue Jackets are hardly impressive, particularly w/ both being of the one-goal variety. The win over Calgary came in OT. Not only is the Lightning just 1-6 its last seven trips to San Jose, but they are a very poor 10-37 SU when playing on the road w/ 3 or more days rest. The Sharks also last played on Saturday and also enter off BTB wins, the last also being a win for myself as they beat Edmonton 3-2. Tampa Bay still ranks near the bottom of the league defensively, allowing 3.28 goals per game.
Teddy Covers
Cal Poly @ DePaul
PICK: DePaul -2.5
DePaul has been a bottom tier program for the better part of the last decade. When bottom tier programs make real improvements, it can take months for the betting markets to catch up. And this Blue Demons team is certainly making improvements! They opened up the season by knocking off Arizona State and Texas Tech in Orlando, while losing by only a single point to Minnesota. Then, after a brief hiccup immediately following that trip, the Blue Demons have won four straight, all by double digit margins. Look for Oliver Purnell’s squad to carry that positive energy forward, notching another comfortable win tonight.
Cal Poly San Luis Obispo has played well on the road against lesser tier foes in recent weeks – hence this very short pointspread. But the Mustangs have been beating patsies like Fresno and San Jose State (the two last place teams in the WAC). They’ve failed to cover the number in either of their step-up-in-class games, losing at home to St Mary’s and at UNLV in a blowout by 23 points. The betting markets aren’t considering DePaul a ‘step up in class’ opponent for Cal Poly SLO. Maybe they will after tonight’s win and cover for the Blue Demons! Take DePaul.
Rocketman
Texas Arlington vs Kent State
Play: Texas Arlington +6
Texas Arlington hasn't been in a lot of lined games over the years but they are 8-2 ATS since 1997 in all their lined games. Texas Arlington is 7-1 ATS since 1997 in all non-conference games. Golden Flashes are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games. Golden Flashes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Golden Flashes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Golden Flashes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Golden Flashes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite. Golden Flashes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games. Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog. We'll recommend a small play on Texas Arlington tonight!
Dave Price
1 Unit Alabama -8
The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points while the Crimson Tide are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Also, the Tide are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite while the Cowboys are 17-39-2 ATS in their last 58 games as a road underdog. Lay the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Tennessee Martin +23
At 12-0, the 22nd-ranked Murray State Racers are being overvalued against the 3-10 Tennessee Martin Skyhawks. Murray State is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games after 7 or more consecutive wins. It has won these games by only 14.9 points on average. Murray State is also 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games as a favorite of 10 or more points and 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more. The Racers won both meetings against the Skyhawks last season but failed to cover the spread in each of those wins. The Racers only won by 17 points as an 18.5-point home favorite last season despite making 13 of 18 three-point shots. In addition, the Skyhawks are a terrific 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. Ohio Valley foes. We'll take the points.
Jack Jones
DePaul -3
The DePaul Blue Demons are a program on the rise under former Clemson head coach Oliver Purnell. They have opened 8-3 this year behind a veteran team that returned four starters from a year ago. I like the Blue Demons to cover this small number over Cal Poly-Slo at home tonight.
Players love Purnell's up-tempo style. DePaul is averaging 79.2 points on 46.2 percent shooting this season. Cal Poly will have a hard time keeping up considering they score just 63.5 points on 43.2 percent shooting, including 56.7 points and 39.9 percent on the road.
Cal Poly likes to play a slow-down tempo, while DePaul likes to push it. Playing at home tonight, I believe the Blue Demons will control the tempo, thus control the game. Which ever team controls the tempo will win tonight.
The Blue Demons have two absolute studs leading this team. Cleveland Melvin, who led them in scoring last year, leads them again in 2011-12 with 18.7 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. Brandon Young is averaging 17.5 points and 4.6 assists from the point guard position. Jeremy Kelly (11.1 PPG, 4.4 APG) has also been productive in the early going.
DePaul is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game. The Blue Demons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a win. DePaul is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Bet DePaul Wednesday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Penn State -7.5
Cornell played Illinois tough last game but needed 10 3-point makes to do so. I don't see the long balls dropping in as easily tonight against a Penn State team that has held 7 of its last 11 opponents below 40% from the field. History suggests you don't want to fade the Nittany Lions in this point-spread range. They are a perfect 11-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997, winning these games by an average score of 73.8 to 56.4. In addition, teams coached by Pat Chambers are 8-0 ATS all-time when taking on a team with a losing record. His teams have won by an average score or 69.8 to 58 in these games. Bet Penn State.
Rob Vinciletti
Middle Tennessee St vs. Mississippi
Play: Mississippi -2½
One has to love the fact that the Rebels are a Perfect 17-0 straight up vs Sun Belt Conference teams. One would also like the fact that Middle Tennessee St is 0-15 straight up vs SEC Teams, including 0-5 ats the last 5 outs. Ole Miss has covered 11 of 16 on Hump day and 13 of 20 vs teams who allow 64 or less. The come in off a hard fought 4 point loss at SO. Miss which is one of the toughest places in the country for Non conference teams to win. MTU is off a close win vs Belmont. Look for Ole. Miss to get the win and cover. Lay the small number.
Hollywood Sports
Cornell at Penn State
Prediction: Under
The Nittany Lions (7-5) snapped their three-game losing streak on Sunday with a 72-43 win over Mount St. Marys and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Penn State has also played 7 of their last 8 home games Under the Total as a favorite in the 7-12.5 point range. Additionally, the Big Red are 0-4 on the road this season and the Nittany Lions have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. And in their last 5 games from teams from the Ivy League, Penn State has played 4 of these games Under the Total. Cornell (4-5) has played 5 of their last 6 games against Big Ten competition Under the Total. The Big Red has lost two games in a row after their 64-60 loss at Illinois and they have seen the Under go 9-3-1 in their last 13 games after a loss. But Cornell did cover the 16.5-point spread in that contest -- and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The personalities of both these teams complement each other in this situation as both clubs tend to play these contests Under the Total making the Under a solid proposition once again for their meeting tonight.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Phoenix at Carolina
Play: Phoenix
The Phoenix Coyotes take on the Carolina Hurricanes and are very under-valued at only -120 favorites. Carolina is coming off a tough loss against Florida last night which sets them up for a terrible situation since they are 0-7 SU when coming off a loss against a division rival. Phoenix is having a much better season with a 17-13-3 record while Carolina is 10-18-6. Carolina has only won two of their last 12 matchups and will have another tough loss tonight. Phoenix is 28-18 coming off a non-conference game while Carolina is 0-8 SU after a division game. This is going to be an easy night for Phoenix and with them only -120 favorites, you have to lay the juice in this matchup!
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
UL Monroe/ Indiana State Under 131.5: Really like what Pool stated in his thread about the fact that ISU beat ULM pretty bad on the road earlier in the year and that they have conference play on deck, so I don't look for an all out effort from ISU, especially on the offensive end. The Sycamore's still only score 65.7 ppg for the year, while at home they have averaged just 64.3 ppg, so this is not a great offensive team any way and I don't see them really breaking out tonight, even vs a Warhawk team that has allowed 71.3 ppg on the year.The Sycamore's win by defense and for the year they have allowed just 61.4 ppg (68th) on 43.1%, including allowing just 59.3 ppg on 39.5% shooting. ULM has struggled shooting for the year (42.3%), and it has translated to just 62.6 ppg, plus ULM has averaged just 60.9 ppg on the road. The Sycamore's are huge favorites in this game and to me that means they should be able to dictate pace. They are not a running team as they are 314th in the nation in shots per game (50.1) and they will have this game at their pace and it really shouldn't be hard as ULM puts up just 54.4 shots of their own per game and that is 193rd. I look for around 120 points in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
NORTH CAROLINA -10.5 over Texas: Google News play. Gotta go with the Heels here to try and stop my 2 game slide in these plays. Here's a great stat for you--- North Carolina has taken 71 straight non-conference home games versus unranked foes by an average of 26.5 points. Now that's domination. The Longhorns have won four straight in the series dating back to 1995, but with four freshmen among their top five scorers and Harrison Barnes headlining a group of returning Tar Heel stars, Texas coach Rick Barnes knows Wednesday's game presents a whole new challenge. Even though the longhorns have outrebounded opponents by 5.6 rpg size will be an issue for the Longhorns in this one, as they don’t have a proven big man who can match up with Carolina’s tandem of Zeller and Henson. Texas is holding opponents to 62.5 PPG on 36.5% shooting from the field, but those numbers have been skewed by matchups with lesser opponents. The Heels heels have a solid offensive edge, they have been playing better defensively of late and they have a size edge on the inside, plus with revenge on their minds and with them being at home I just don't see how this team doesn't win by 15 points or more.
Cal-Poll SLO/ Depaul Under 130.5: Cal-Poly's last 3 games vs division 1 teams has seen no more than 113 points scored in any game, while in their division 1 games ooverall this year there has been just 114.3 ppg being scored. Overall CPU has put up just 63.5 ppg, while they are 6th in the nation in defensive scoring, allowing just 53.9 ppg on 40.2 % shooting. Depaul recently had a defensive hiccup vs a division 2 team, but in their last 3 vs Division 1 teams they have allowed just 57.3 ppg. Depaul is 9th in the nation in shots per game (63.5) and it has translated to 79.2 ppg, they haven't met a defensive minded team like they will tonight or a team that slows it down as much as CPU (240th in spg, 53.1) will. With the 6th rated defense and a Depaul defense that has played much better of late, ill look for this one to hit no more than 12.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Iona -18 over WILLIAM & MARY: The Gaels have had a great start to their year as they have gone 9-2 on the year. They have been spectacular on offense as they have put up 86.2 ppg on a stellar 50.8% shooting. Now they get to face a 2-9 Tribe team that has allowed 72.5 ppg and 47.1% shooting, while being outscored by 18.6 ppg vs division 1 foes this year. The Tribe has gone just 11-27 ATS, since 1997, at home if this is their 3rd game in a week. The Tribe has been outscored by 33 ppg in their last 3 losses and I would not be surprised if that big of loss happened again. I will call for them to at least win by 25.
UT- Martin/ Murray State Under 133: The Racers have played excellent defense at home this year, especially at home, where they have allowed just 58.7 ppg on 44.1% shooting. UT- Martin has been very inept at the offensive end of the floor as they have put up just 58.9 ppg on just 39.5% shooting and 54.9 ppg on 38.6% shooting on the road. Really only one team will score in this one and as long as Murray State doesn't hit 80+ points )just twice vs Div 1 and 1 was in OT) then this one will stay comfortably under the total.
1 UNIT PLAY
Alabama/ Oklahoma State Over 120.5: Alabama has played some low scoring games this year, but still 7 of their last 9 games have hit at least 121 points. Overall this year their games have averaged 122.7 ppg. Oklahoma State's games have averaged 131.9 ppg overall, while their 5 games away from home have averaged 133.6 ppg. Both teams play good defense and neither team pushes the ball, but both teams do hit their FT's pretty well and this should be a close game though out so FT's should come into play late. Look for around 130 in this one.