SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
POINSETTIA BOWL
(at San Diego)
(23) Utah (9-3, 5-7 ATS) vs. California (8-4, 6-6 ATS)
The Utes, who were big-time BCS Bowl busters last year in going 13-0, have to settle for a game with much less prestige this postseason when they face California at Qualcomm Stadium.
Utah opened the season 8-1, including a six-game winning streak following a loss at Oregon in Week 2. But the Utes finished by losing two of their last three, falling to Texas Christian – this year’s Mountain West Conference BCS buster – and archrival Brigham Young 26-23 overtime. Utah did cash as a 7½-point underdog against BYU and enters this contest on a 3-1 ATS run (2-0 ATS last two).
California rolled to blowout victories in its first three games of the season (3-0 ATS), then went just 5-4 SU (3-6 ATS) the rest of the way. After appearing to right the ship with a home win and cover over Arizona and a comeback victory at archrival Stanford, the Golden Bears finished the regular season at Washington and got hammered 42-10 as a 6½-point road chalk.
Utah completed an unbeaten season last year with a 31-17 Sugar Bowl shellacking of Alabama as a 9½-point pup, winning its eighth straight bowl game and cashing for the sixth time in its last seven bowls. The Utes, who have the nation’s longest bowl winning streak, have won all four of their postseason contests under coach Kyle Whittingham (3-1 ATS).
Cal is making its seventh straight bowl appearance, going 5-1 in the first six (3-3 ATS), all with coach Jeff Tedford at the helm. Last year, the Bears topped Miami, Fla., 24-17 in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco, coming up short as a nine-point favorite.
These teams have split two meetings this decade (both SU and ATS), with the home team and underdog winning and covering each time. Most recently, Utah prevailed 31-24 as a one-point pup in September 2003.
The Utes, who finished third in the MWC standings (behind TCU and BYU), have a fairly balanced offense, averaging 220.1 passing yards per game and a solid 169.4 rushing ypg. RB Eddie Wide leads Utah with 1,033 rushing yards and 13 TDs (12 rushing, 1 receiving, 5.7 ypc). Junior QB Terrance Cain (1,623 passing yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs) started the first eight games of the year, but freshman Jordan Wynn took over the last four games, finishing the season with 991 yards passing (5 TDs, 3 INTs).
Utah averages 29.2 points and 389.5 yards per outing, while giving up 19.7 ppg and 314.2 ypg.
Cal also sports a balanced offensive attack, at 223.4 passing ypg and 175.4 rushing ypg. QB Kevin Riley threw for 2,636 yards with 17 TDs against just six INTs, and RB Jahvid Best was the Bears’ top rusher with 867 yards and 12 TDs, averaging a stout 6.1 ypc. However, Best hasn’t played since suffering a concussion on a scary end-zone tumble in a 31-14 home loss to Oregon State on Nov. 7. Cal is averaging 29.2 ppg and 398.8 ypg, but is also allowing 24.5 ppg and 377 ypg.
Utah is on ATS rolls 4-1 in December, 4-1 at neutral sites, 26-7-1 as an underdog and 26-12-1 in non-conference play. That said, Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last six against the Pac-10 (including a 31-24 loss at Oregon in September) and 1-4 ATS in its last five against winning teams.
Cal is on ATS runs of 6-2 after a SU loss and 5-2 outside the Pac-10, but it is otherwise in pointspread ruts of 1-4 as a chalk, 3-13 laying three points or less and 3-7 in December.
For Utah, the under is on streaks of 7-2 overall and 4-1 against winning teams, and the under for Cal is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 4-0 with the Bears favored and 5-2 against winning teams. However, the over is 9-2-1 in the Utes’ last dozen non-conference games, and the over for California is on tears of 5-1 in bowl games, 10-3-1 in non-conference play, 4-1-1 against the Mountain West and 4-1 with the Bears favored.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(15) Ole Miss (10-1, 5-2 ATS) at (6) West Virginia (8-0, 3-4 ATS)
The day’s only matchup of Top 25 teams comes from the Coliseum in Morgantown, W.Va., where the sixth-ranked Mountaineers host No. 15 Ole Miss in a non-conference battle.
The Rebels dropped their only game of the season back on Nov. 22 in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, falling 79-67 to then-No. 5 Villanova as a three-point underdog. Since then, Ole Miss has ripped off six consecutive wins, but only three of those were lined contests (2-1 ATS). Most recently, the Rebels dumped Centenary 108-64 in a non-lined home win Saturday, setting a high-water mark for points scored in topping their previous high of 92. Ole Miss has played just one true road game this year, knocking off Arkansas State 79-57 as a 10-point chalk.
West Virginia took a 13-point lead into halftime at Cleveland State on Saturday, then built that lead to 17 before withstanding the Vikings’ furious second-half rally and holding on for an 80-78 road win, falling way short of covering as a 15½-point road chalk. The Mountaineers, who committed a season-high 17 turnovers (11 in the second half) against Cleveland State, have their highest national ranking since the 1981-82 season.
These teams met last December at Ole Miss, and the Mountaineers escaped with an 80-79 victory, but came up just short of covering as a 2½-point road favorite.
Ole Miss has scored more than 80 points in four straight games and eight of 11 contests, and it has been held under 73 points just once (in the loss to Villanova). The Rebels are putting up 85.4 points per game on 48.2 percent shooting, while yielding 67.9 ppg (41.3 percent).
West Virginia has scored at least 80 points in half of its eight contests, tallying 68 or more in every game, and Bob Huggins’ squad is pouring in 76.4 ppg (45.6 percent shooting). The Mountaineers’ strength, though, is on defense, as it is giving up just 58 ppg on 43.9 percent shooting. Cleveland State became the first team this season to crack the 70-point barrier versus West Virginia.
The Rebels are on ATS tears of 5-2 overall (all in non-conference play) and 20-6 on Wednesday. The Mountaineers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after a non-cover, but 5-11 ATS in their last 16 non-conference contests.
Ole Miss has topped the total in eight of 11 lined affairs, 15 of 21 non-conference games and five of seven after a SU win, but the Rebels have stayed low in seven of nine on the road. West Virginia is 5-2 “over” in its last seven overall, but the under has hit in five of the Mountaineers’ last six Wednesday outings. Last year’s meeting between these schools in Oxford, Miss., flew over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Illinois (8-3, 4-6 ATS) vs. Missouri (7-3, 3-3 ATS)
(at St. Louis)
Illinois guns for its 10th straight victory over regional rival Missouri when these squads square off at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis.
The Illini saw its four-game winning streak halted in Saturday’s 70-67 loss at Georgia as an 8½-point favorite. Illinois has scored at least 76 points in all eight wins (averaging 84.4 ppg) but managed just 64.3 ppg in its three losses. Still, for the season, the Illini are putting up 79 ppg and making nearly half of their shots (49.1 percent), while holding the opposition to 65.1 ppg (39.8 percent).
The Tigers are coming off three straight non-lined games, losing at Oral Roberts (60-59) followed by home victories over Fairleigh Dickinson (87-36) and Arkansas-Pine Bluff (88-70). Missouri has faced just two teams from power conference this year, beating Oregon 106-69 as a 12½-point home favorite and losing 89-83 at Vanderbilt as a 3½-point road underdog. Missouri has scored 83 points or more in seven of 10 games, but tallied just 66, 52 and 59 in its other three contests. The Tigers are strong on defense, giving up only 61.2 ppg (37.5 percent shooting), with only two opponents scoring 70 or more.
Illinois has won nine straight over Missouri, going 5-3-1 ATS. After two straight narrow wins by a total of four points in 2006 and 2007, the Illini pummeled the Tigers last year 75-59 as a four-point underdog at the Scottrade Center. The pup has cashed in three straight meetings in this rivalry and is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six.
Illinois is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 against the Big 12 and 29-13-2 ATS in its last 44 on Wednesday. Missouri is on pointspread surges of 16-7 overall, 17-5 at home, 5-2 on Wednesday and 8-3 against winning teams, but the Tigers have failed to cover in five of seven versus Big Ten foes.
The Illini have topped the total in all seven lined games this season and they’re on additional “over” runs of 11-1 overall, 8-0 in non-conference games and 5-1 after a SU defeat, while Missouri is on “over” rolls of 5-2 overall and 7-2 on Wednesday. However, the under is 9-3 in Illinois’ last 12 against Big 12 opponents, 8-3 in its last 11 on Wednesday and 10-3 in Mizzou’s last 13 against the Big Ten.
Finally, the last two meetings in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ILLINOIS
NBA
Houston (17-11, 18-10 ATS) at Orlando (21-7, 15-13 ATS)
The Rockets shoot for their third straight win overall and their fourth consecutive victory over the Magic when they make their only trip of the season to Amway Arena.
Houston is coming off Tuesday’s 108-99 victory over the Clippers, barely cashing as an 8½-point home chalk. The Rockets have won three in a row, six of eight and nine of 12, and they’re 9-3 ATS during that stretch. Additionally, the SU winner is 12-2 ATS in Houston’s last 14 games, including 8-0 ATS in its last eight.
Orlando improved to 4-1 in its last five games (4-0 at home) with Monday’s 104-99 home win over the Jazz, but it came up short as a 7½-point road favorite, falling to 2-5 ATS in its last seven overall. The Magic have played just five home games since Thanksgiving, winning all five by an average of 11 ppg, but going just 3-2 ATS. For the season, the Magic are 11-2 at Amway Arena (7-6 ATS).
Houston is on a 6-1 SU and ATS roll against the Magic, including winning and covering the last three in a row. Additionally, the Rockets have won seven straight games in Orlando (7-0 ATS), including four outright upsets, and they’re 12-2 SU and ATS in the last 14 series meetings overall. Also, the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 26 battles between these squads.
The Rockets are riding ATS hot streaks of 6-2 overall, 8-3 on the highway, 6-2 on Wednesday, 5-1 against the Eastern Conference and 35-15-1 versus the Southeast Division. Orlando has cashed in six of eight on Wednesday and seven of 10 after getting one day of rest, but otherwise the Magic are in ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 5-11 against Western Conference clubs, 0-4 against the Southwest Division and 1-5 versus winning teams.
Houston is on “under” stretches of 9-4 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 4-1 against the Southeast Division and 11-5 when playing on back-to-back days. The under is also 5-2 in Orlando’s last seven against Southwest Division, but otherwise the Magic are on “over” rolls of 10-3 at home, 9-0 on Wednesday, 4-1 when playing after one day of rest and 7-2 versus winning teams.
Finally, the under is 6-3 in the last nine clashes between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER
Atlanta (20-7 SU and ATS) at Denver (19-9, 14-14 ATS)
Two of the NBA’s top teams square off inside the Pepsi Center, where the Nuggets look to avenge their worst defeat of a season when they host the Hawks.
Atlanta continued its four-game road trip with Tuesday’s 112-87 whipping of the Timberwolves as a 9½-point road favorite. The Hawks, who had a six-game winning streak snapped in Saturday’s 101-98 overtime loss at Chicago as a four-point road favorite, have won seven of their last eight both SU and ATS. Atlanta, which is 8-5 (9-4 ATS) on the highway, has scored 110 points or more in five of its last seven contests.
The SU winner has covered the spread in 25 of Atlanta’s 27 games this year, including the last 14 in a row overall and the last 12 in a row on the road.
Denver is coming off back-to-back road losses at New Orleans (98-92) and Memphis (102-96), failing to cover in both contests. The Nuggets played both games without star point guard Chauncey Billups, who is listed as doubtful for this contest. Denver has followed up an 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS run by going 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games, but all four losses came on the road. The Nuggets are 12-1 at the Pepsi Center (8-5 ATS), winning the last five in a row (3-2 ATS).
The Nuggets’ second loss of the season came at Atlanta on Nov. 7, and it was an ugly 125-100 setback as a three-point road underdog. The host has taken five in a row and eight of the last 10 between these squads, while the Hawks are 7-2 ATS in the last nine series clashes overall and 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to the Mile High City. Finally, the favorite has covered in five of the last six meetings.
Atlanta is on a boatload of positive pointspread streaks, including 7-1 overall, 17-4-1 against the Western Conference, 8-0-1 versus the Northwest Division, 8-0 on Wednesday and 5-2 when playing on consecutive nights. Denver is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five on Wednesday, but George Karl’s squad has failed to cash in six of seven overall and five of six against the Southeast Division.
The under is 7-1 in the Hawks’ last eight roadies, but the over is 16-5 in their last 21 on Wednesday and 4-0 in their last four against winning teams. Denver has stayed low in four of five overall and four of five after two days’ rest, but the Nuggets have topped the total in five straight Wednesday outings and four straight versus winning teams.
Lastly, these teams have gone over the total in their last four head-to-head meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Marc Lawrence
Missouri at Illinois
Prediction: Illinois
When Illinois takes on Missouri in a battle of cross state rivals they will do so knowing the Illini is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS the last eight games in this series. With the Tigers in off an 18-point win and Illinois off a 13-point loss, look for more of the same here this evening.
Frank Jordan
Houston Rockets vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Houston Rockets +8.5
Both teams are playing well as Houston has won three in a row and 7 of 10 and Orlando has won two in a row and also 7 of 10. Orlando has dominated at home with 11 wins in 13 home games while Houston is just over .500 on the road at 9-7, but did win their last road game over Dallas. Look for Tracy McGrady to bury his old team late as he comes off the bench strong. Play Houston
Rob Vinciletti
NC State vs. Arizona
Play: NC State +5
The Wolf Pack have better shooting percentages both offensively and defensively in this one. They have won four of the past 6 meetings against PAC 10 teams. On the road they are 4-1 this year and are 29-7 out of conference the past few seasons. At 8-1 they have a solid team this year. Arizona is not the Power house they were in years past. The Wildcats are a lousy 3-9 straight up and against the spread vs ACC teams the past few years and have covered just 30% of the time after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. Take the points in this one.
Jim Feist
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: New Jersey Nets -3
New Jersey is off a winless week, but what a terrible schedule: Last week the Nets played 5 games in 7 days! Now they have three full days off to rest and regroup before playing this one. The Timberwolves have had problems of their own, especially on defense and on the road, where they are 2-12. The visitors have the difficult scheduling spot here, with Minnesota playing its 3rd game in 4 nights, plus the second of a back to back spot. A good spot scheduling for the rested home team. Play the Nets.
Karl Garrett
Oklahoma City at PHOENIX -8
G-Man on a 6-3 free play run the last 9 days.
Lay it on Wednesday with the Suns as they play host to an Oklahoma City Thunder team that just went up against the Lakers in LA last night.
The Thunder is just 2-3 against the spread when playing with no rest, and tonight they walk into a hornets nest, as Shaq came back to town on Monday and helped hand the Suns their first home loss of the season, an 18-point rout at the hands of the Cavaliers.
Phoenix is still 7-4 against the spread at home this season, and they have won the last 9 against Oklahoma City, covering in the last pair.
The Suns have been home since the 19th, and get to stay at home for their Christmas Day game against the Clippers. The schedule couldn't be more kind for Phoenix.
Lay the wood as the Suns take advantage of the tired Thunder.
3♦ PHOENIX
Bobby Maxwell
Oklahoma City +8' at PHOENIX
Amazing FREE play run continued Tuesday night and improved to 11-1 over the last 12 days as the Rockets won and covered against the Clippers. Today I'm on the NBA hardwood with another comp winner on the Thunder as they take on the Suns in Phoenix.
This is the kind of game that the young legs and talent of Oklahoma City’s roster should be able to dominate. They are playing a Phoenix team that gives up 105.3 points a game. I’m not saying the Thunder is going to win it outright, but this is just way too many points to pass up.
The Oklahoma City trio of Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Jeff Green are all capable of putting up big numbers. They should certainly get some open looks tonight.
The Thunder is 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Suns, even though they are just 1-9 SU.
Oklahoma City went to Los Angeles on Tuesday and hung with the Lakers the entire night before losing 111-108 and cashing as a 9 ½-point underdog. They are on ATS runs of 6-1 as a ‘dog of 5 to 10 ½-points and 10-4-1 ATS on Wednesdays.
Grab the points and go with the Thunder.
4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Jeff Benton
N.C. State +5 at ARIZONA
Hope you took advantage of Tuesday's free winner on the Thunder plus the points against the Lakers. For Wednesday’s free play, I’ll head to the college hardwood and take the points with North Carolina State over Arizona.
First of all, who is Arizona to be laying this kind of price to ANY team, let alone an ACC squad? I mean, the Wildcats have lost five of their last eight games, and two of those wins came in overtime … and that was against Colgate (91-87) and, on Monday, Lipscomb (83-82 in an unlined game at home!). As for the losses, how about 63-46 to San Diego State, 79-62 at Oklahoma (which isn’t that good this year) and 84-72 to Vanderbilt?
N.C. State is coming off an ACC defeat at Wake Forest, falling 67-59 on Sunday, but the Wolfpack cashed as an 8½-point underdog. Even with the loss, N.C. State is still 8-2 on the season, with impressive wins over Marquette on the road (77-73 as a 10-point underdog) and Auburn on a neutral court (60-58 as a one-point favorite).
N.C. State has excelled both on the road (7-1 ATS last eight) and as an underdog (8-1 ATS last nine), while Arizona has failed to cover in four of five overall, four of five against winning teams and four straight against ACC opponents. Grab the points, and don’t be stunned when N.C. State wins this thing outright.
5♦ N.C. STATE
Craig Davis
Free play of the day tonight on the Sacramento Kings getting points at home. Look, you can't argue with the fact that the Kings are 10-3 SU at home or the fact they are 18-8-1 ATS on the season... those numbers don't lie. Are the Cavs better than the Kings? Yeah, probably. But as we've seen so often in the NBA, the best team doesn't always win and they definitely don't always cover the number. Remember, this is the third straight West Coast road game for Cleveland, and there is absolutely no way we can expect them to play as well as they played the other night in Phoenix. They put together a near flawless game against the Suns and finished the 4th quarter as you would expect them to... by winning. Different story tonight. The Cavs are a bit road weary and the Kings suddenly have a new confidence after what they did to the Bulls the other night. Coming back from 35 down on the road to grab a win was unheard of... especially for team like this. Now they come back home, where they rarely lose, to face a team that could easily overlook them. I'm not saying the Kings win this game straight up, but they are getting too many points at home tonight --- especially when I think they can win this game SU. Free play of the day on the Kings plus the number.
2♦ SACRAMENTO
LOGICAL APPROACH
This is a second Pac 10 vs Mountain West matchup in two days. Cal is making a seventh straight
Bowl trip and are seeking a fifth straight win after splitting their first two Bowl trips under coach
Tedford. Cal has been considered a major disappointment in recent seasons because of regular
season collapses but they clearly come to play in Bowl games. Utah is also making a seventh
straight Bowl trip and the Utes are 6-0 in those 6 previous Bowls including last season's 31-17
Sugar Bowl win over Alabama that capped a perfect 13-0 season. This was to be a rebuilding
season but Utah finished 9-3 with losses at Oregon and at TCU prior to a season ending OT loss
at arch rival BYU. There are no noteworthy non-conference wins as their 3 such wins came against
non-Bowlers. Cal was 3-0 in non-Pac 10 play with a win at Bowl bound Minnesota. They lost all
but one of their key conference games (including 30-3 at home to USC) but their lone key win was
in "The Big Game" over arch rival Stanford on the road. Statistically the offenses are pretty even
on offense but Utah does have the better overall defensive stats. But that's a bit misleading in that
Cal has a better defense against the run while Utah has an outstanding pass defense. Both
offenses excel at protecting the football while both defenses are just average at creating them.
Both teams figure to be motivated to continue their Bowl winning streaks. Utah has won 6 of their
last 8 games against Pac10 foes since 2003 while Cal has won their last 5 games against MWC
foes, all since 2004. In each of the 5 wins Cal has scored at least 34 points. Cal RB Best is still
??? for this game although his backups performed reasonably well in his absence. This contest
handicaps fairly evenly with neither team having significant fundamental nor intangible edges.
Neither is there a coaching edge. The Pac 10 pedigree favors Cal and Utah, though happy to be
Bowling, can't be as motivated for this game as they were last season against 'Bama. This game
may well come down to the final drive and despite the fairly low number the points could come
into play. The forecast calls for Cal to win 30-28, making
UTAH a 1 Star Selection
OVER a 3 Star Selection
THE GOLDSHEET
Utah 30 - California 28—Make no mistake, this is definitely not the same
Utah team that went undefeated last season, including a chest-puffing Sugar
Bowl beatdown of mighty Alabama to conclude that watershed campaign. Gone
is savvy sr. QB Brian Johnson (336 YP & 3 TDP vs. Tide). And 2009 found touted
juco Terrance Cain (11 TDP, 5 ints. in first 7 games) benched for the final month
of the regular campaign in favor of true frosh Jordan Wynn, who completed just
50% with 2 TDP & 2 interceptions during the final three games. The new QBs
struggled to develop a rapport with a rebuilt receiving corps that lost its top three
pass catchers from 2008, and top RB sr. Matt Asiata blew out his knee in the
fourth game of this season.Still, while this year’s Utes might not the be the equal
of last season’s seminal squad (especially on offense), it wouldn’t be wise to
dismiss their chances inthis matchup against explosive but erratic Pac-10 rep Cal.
First, Utah is 8-0straight up in bowl games over the last decade, and this is a
typically well coached& fundamentally-sound Ute side. Second, the sure-tackling Utah
defense (just 314 ypg) has held nine of 12 foes to 17 points or fewer (and is very
familiar with Cal o.c. Andy Ludwig, who held the same post with the Utes in the
previous 4 seasons). Plus, despite the frequent fits & starts that plagued the
attack this season, Utah does have a ground hammer in hard-charging jr. RB Eddie
Wide (1032 YR on 5.7 ypc, 13 TDs), a go-to WR in sure-handed sr. David Reed (75
catches for 1085 yards), and an accurate PK in jr. Joe Phillips (17 of 19 FGs).
We acknowledge the superior big-play potential of the Bears. Even if oftinjured
star RB Jahvid Best (check status; missed last 3 games with severe
concussion) is limited or still unable to play, speedy soph backup Shane Vereen
is a more than capable pinch hitter, racking up 1545 YR & 17 TDs the last couple
of years. Jr. QB Kevin Riley has played with more poise this season, and Cal
owns four straight bowl victories of its own. Still, with the Bears frequently
failing to maintain their shaky defensive resolve, prefer to back the less
dynamic but more reliable Utes.
NELLYS GREENSHEET
Kyle Whittingham is 4-0 in bowl games with just one ATS miss but after last year’s big win
over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl it might be tough to bring the same focus and energy to San
Diego and a lesser bowl game. It is also a disappointing end for California in a season that
started with great promise. Since losing badly in the Holiday Bowl in this same stadium in ’04,
California has gone 4-0 in bowl games as well, including wins over two Mountain West teams.
The regular season ended with great disappointment for both programs as Utah lost its main
rivalry game with BYU and California was blown out at Washington. The Washington loss
came on the heels of Cal’s rivalry win over Stanford as the Bears had played well late in the
season until that finale. The Bears played one of the tougher schedules in the nation in a very
good Pac-10, and the conference was extremely well represented in the bowls last season.
Utah’s offensive production dropped considerably since Jordan Wynn took over at QB and the
Utes have been a far less successful rushing team. The poor closing effort from the Cal
defense should leave a motivated squad entering the bowl game and the Bears won four road
games this season to put to rest a reputation as a team that only wins big games at home.
Utah’s record this season was built on success at home going 6-0 in Salt Lake City but
struggling away from home. The Utes own great historical numbers as underdogs but that
likely keeps this line in check against a hit-or-miss Cal team. Utah only beat one team with a
winning record and it took overtime to get it done so this is a suspect Utes squad that beat up
on a lot of marginal foes. The Mountain West had a great TCU team at the top of the
standings but the rest of the league was a disappointment this season and it will be tough for
Utah to make amends in this difficult bowl match-up. Cal certainly would have preferred a
bigger stage but facing a Utah team that has a national presence should help keep the Bears
motivated and ready to win. CALIFORNIA BY 7
RATING 2: California (-3) over Utah
RATING 1: ‘OVER’ (53) California/Utah
POWERSWEEP:
OVERALL: 2-1
First meeting S/’03 (Cal leads series 4-2). This is UT’s 7th consec bowl and they have won their L/8 SU (longest streak in NCAA) while covering 6 of the L/7. LY UT busted the BCS for the 2nd time (beat Pitt in the ‘04 Fiesta) this time taking on Bama. Not only did they cover (+9’), they dominated building a 21-0 1Q lead and finishing w/a 349-208 yd edge in the upset. Whittingham is 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in bowls. This will mark Cal’s 7th consec bowl appearance, all under HC Tedford (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) but their goals were set much higher and they just squeaked into the P10 bowl affiliation. UT has 11 Sr’s among 17 upperclassmen starters while Cal has just 7 Sr sts among 15 upperclassmen. UT plyd 5 bowl elig tms going 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS being outscored 28-24 and outgained 329-302 in those while Cal went 4-3 SU/ATS despite being outscored (28-23) and outgained (393-353). Oreg was the only common opp that UT and Cal faced in ‘09 with UT dropping a 7 pt heartbreaker (outgained 312-297) while Cal was mauled by UO 42-3 (outgained 524-207).
After LY’s Sugar Bowl win UT lost production on both off and def incl Utah’s all-time winningest QB, Brian Johnson. JC QB Cain won the starting job and technically went 7-1 SU in his gms but was replaced at HT vs WY by True Fr QB Wynn, who sparked the 2H win. Including WY, Wynn has thrown for 991 yds (55%) w/a 5-3 ratio, going 2-2 in gms he has started and finished. UT was, once again, counting on a big yr from RB Asiata, but, once again, he was hurt, this time after 4 gms (brk leg in opener ‘08). Wide stepped up and since taking over as the feature back, has avg 107 ypg (5.8). He broke the schl rec’d w/6 consec 100 yd gms before being contained by TCU (25 yds) and SDSt (84 yds) but did record a 114 yd outing vs BYU. UT ran the “Asiata Formation” before his inj, but it has since been dubbed the “Shaky Formation” with most of Smithson’s rush yds coming out of the direct snap. WR Reed became just the 6th plyr in UT history w/1,000 yds rec in a ssn. The OL (two 1st Tm All-MWC players) avg 6’3” 300 with 1 Sr starter and has started 97% of the gms together. They have all’d 17 sks (4.6%) opening holes for 169 ypg rush (4.5). Overall the off ranks #57. The D comes in at #31. The DL has suffered thru some inj’s losing starter Shelby (knee) vs TCU while Eliapo has missed 5 gms with an eye inj, although he may return here (CS). The DL has recorded 17.5 of the tm’s 26 sks (67%). UT ranks #10 in our pass eff D all’g 173 ypg (50%) with an 11-15 ratio. With the emergence of Smithson, Matthews has not ret’d a P in the L/5 gms but still ranks #3 in the MWC avg 10.1 ypr. The PR D gives up 11.3 ypr and the KR D 21.3 ypr. K Vroman ranks #2 in the NCAA with 31 TB’s on KO’s. UT has our #40 ST’s unit.
The Cal off began the ssn on fire scoring over 50 pts in their 1st 2 gms (MD and EWU) but dropped the ball vs UO and USC putting up just a FG in each of those matchups as it once again looked to be another disappointing yr after building up high hopes early on. The tm rebounded to win 6 of their L/8 ending the yr avg 29 ppg and 399 ypg ranking #33 overall in our off ratings. QB Riley went as his tm went in ‘09 playing well in their wins and dismal in their defeats. RB’s Best and Vereen are the focus of the Cal off as they combined for 178 ttl ypg and 28 TD’s on the ssn. Best, however, missed the final 3 w/inj. His return here is ? as of this writing. Vereen stepped into the #1 role valiantly avg 148 ypg (5.0) over the final 3 keeping Cal afloat. The rec gm seems to have a new star each and every week with nobody separating from the pack. WR Jones is currently the only Cal plyr with more than 500 yds rec on the yr. The OL avg 6’4” 304 (1 Sr) paving the way for 4.8 ypc while they have all’d 27 sks (7.6%). The Cal def is ranked #42 all’g 24.5 ppg and 377 ypg but did go through a stretch in which they allowed more than 440 yds in 4 consec wks. The DL avg 6’3” 295 (1 Sr) running the only 3-4 scheme in the P10 and accounted for 17.5 of Cal’s 26 sks. The LB’s are led by Mike Mohamed who stepped into the forefront in ‘09 after being the #1 bkup at all 4 LB spots in ‘08 (leading tklr returning TY). The secondary has had its share of struggles but CB Thompson remained the only solid option again as he’s arguably the P10’s best CB. The unit all’d 259 ypg (63%) w/a 17-10 ratio on the yr ranking #81 in our pass def ratings. The KR unit struggled some w/o Best TY and while they fared well in PR’s (12.4), they struggled in P coverage all’g 12.2 ypr. Overall the unit finished with our #53 ranking TY.
Cal certainly looked disinterested in ssn finale vs UW, but Tedford has prepared them well as they’ve cashed 4 str bowls winning all by at least 6 pts each. UT has the nation’s longest streak winning 8 str bowls SU but a month ago prior to TCU, they thought they had a chance to win the conf before losing 2 of the L/3. This is also the same tm that was a BCS winner LY but is now led by a True Fr QB vs a quality BCS foe.
FORECAST: CALIFORNIA by 13 RATING: 3* CAL
Matt Fargo
Long Beach State @ Kentucky
PICK: Long Beach State +21.5
I went with Kentucky in this same spot on Monday but I am going the other way this time two nights later. My main reason for backing the Wildcats against Drexel was because of the magnitude of the game at hand as they were going for win number 2,000 in the history of the program. Suffice to say, it was an easy win for Kentucky and the celebration that took place after puts us in a great spot in this game as I expect the Wildcats to come into this game flatter than a pancake. It is also an early start and that makes it not as big of a home game as the energy will be not even close as it is in a normal weeknight setting. Long Beach St. is a good basketball team. It has faced some really tough competition along the way and it has passed some tests while failing in others. Games against Notre Dame, West Virginia and Texas resulted in big losses while games against Clemson and UCLA resulted in a close loss and a win respectively. The 49ers are coming off an overtime loss in Loyola-Marymount on Monday and the travel aspect is the one thing that is taking this away from being a bigger play. Playing on the east coast in an early game after an overtime game on the west coast 36 hours ago is a recipe for disaster in most cases. However, the letdown spot on the other side is more of a factor this afternoon. Long Beach St. also falls into a great situation based on the short turnaround. Play on underdogs of 10 or more points that are coming off a loss as a favorite and now playing their 2nd road game in three days. As negative as it sounds, this situation is actually 39-13 ATS (75 percent) since 1997 with the average point differential being just -10.5 ppg. 3* Long Beach St. 49ers
Stephen Nover
Mississippi at W VIRGINIA
Mississippi is 10-1 with the seventh-best offense in the nation, averaging 85.4 points.
West Virginia is unbeaten. But do the Mountaineers deserve to be such a big favorite against the Rebels?
I say no. West Virginia just nipped the Rebels, 80-78, last year in Oxford in a game that was tight throughout.
West Virginia has failed to cover seven of the last nine times it has faced an opponent with a winning road record. The Mountaineers also are 5-11 against the spread when competing out of conference.
Mississippi has covered nine of the past 13 times it has been an underdog.
Rebels coach Andy Kennedy knows West Virginia coach Bob Huggins well, having worked under him at Cincinnati.
3♦ MISSISSIPPI
DUNKEL INDEX
Utah vs. California
The Utes look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 bowl games. Utah is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has California favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Utah (+3 1/2)
Game 209-210: Utah vs. California
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 93.633; California 94.292
Dunkel Line: California by 1; 48
Vegas Line: California by 3 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+3 1/2); Under
NBA
Portland at San Antonio
The Blazers look to build on their 9-2 ATS record in their last 11 games when playing with 0 days of rest. Portland is the pick (+10) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by only 6. Dunkel Pick: Portland (+10)
Game 701-702: Houston at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 117.743; Orlando 126.241
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 8 1/2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 8; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-8); Over
Game 703-704: Minnesota at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 112.556; New Jersey 108.865
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey by 3; 200
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Over
Game 705-706: Toronto at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 113.534; Detroit 116.307
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 3; 190
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 707-708: Utah at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 119.683; Miami 123.180
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 3 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2); Over
Game 709-710: Golden State at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 109.538; New Orleans 120.839
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 9; 212
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-9); Under
Game 711-712: Washington at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 113.860; Milwaukee 120.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 7; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 7 1/2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7 1/2); Under
Game 713-714: Portland at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 119.344; San Antonio 125.109
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 188
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 10; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+10); Over
Game 715-716: Atlanta at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 123.310; Denver 125.382
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 2; 225
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 717-718: Oklahoma City at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 117.375; Phoenix 122.636
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 5 1/2; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 9; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+9); Under
Game 719-720: Cleveland at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.145; Sacramento 116.167
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 7; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-5 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Mississippi at West Virginia
The Rebels look to build on their 9-4 ATS record in their last 13 games as an underdog. Mississippi is the pick (+11) according to Dunkel, which has West Virginia favored by only 9. Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+11)
Game 721-722: Harvard at Georgetown
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 60.552; Georgetown 72.615
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 12
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+13 1/2)
Game 723-724: Long Beach State at Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 56.289; Kentucky 78.668
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-20 1/2)
Game 725-726: Fordham at James Madison
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 40.477; James Madison 52.807
Dunkel Line: James Madison by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: James Madison by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: James Madison (-11 1/2)
Game 727-728: Massachusetts at Boston College
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 56.695; Boston College 65.018
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston College by 12
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (+12)
Game 729-730: Florida Atlantic at Georgia
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 47.083; Georgia 60.995
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 14
Vegas Line: Georgia by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-9 1/2)
Game 731-732: Delaware at Villanova
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 43.119; Villanova 75.901
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 33
Vegas Line: Villanova by 29
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-29)
Game 733-734: Charlotte at Old Dominion
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 66.760; Old Dominion 67.214
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+7 1/2)
Game 735-736: Miami (OH) at Xavier
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 53.961; Xavier 73.379
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 15
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-15)
Game 737-738: UL-Lafayette at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 50.148; Louisville 71.051
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 21
Vegas Line: Louisville by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-20 1/2)
Game 739-740: Mississippi at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 67.643; West Virginia 76.629
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 9
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 11
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+11)
Game 741-742: Wyoming at Northern Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 51.502; Northern Iowa 65.370
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 14
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 15
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+15)
Game 743-744: TCU at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 56.499; Houston 65.118
Dunkel Line: Houston by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston by 11
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+11)
Game 745-746: Fresno State at Oregon State
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 56.955; Oregon State 58.266
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+6 1/2)
Game 747-748: WI-Milwaukee at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 53.580; Wisconsin 76.306
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 16
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-16)
Game 749-750: Missouri vs. Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 73.306; Illinois 65.656
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois by 2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (+2)
Game 751-752: San Jose State at Santa Clara
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 50.651; Santa Clara 56.907
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara
Game 753-754: Utah at Pepperdine
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 61.249; Pepperdine 49.148
Dunkel Line: Utah by 12
Vegas Line: Utah by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-6 1/2)
Game 755-756: North Carolina State at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina State 61.784; Arizona 67.221
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 5
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-5)
Game 757-758: Western Michigan vs. Northeastern
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 52.989; Northeastern 56.362
Dunkel Line: Northeastern by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 759-760: USC vs. St. Mary's (CA)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 64.182; St. Mary's (CA) 67.203
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 3
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 761-762: UNLV at Hawaii
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 62.858; Hawaii 58.196
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 763-764: SMU vs. College of Charleston
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 52.188; College of Charleston 50.440
Dunkel Line: SMU by 2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 765-766: Canisius vs. New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 45.717; New Orleans 45.483
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 767-768: North Florida at Southern Mississippi
Dunkel Ratings: North Florida 41.477; Southern Mississippi 64.466
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 23
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 769-770: CS-Fullerton vs. Morehead State
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 51.212; Morehead State 51.142
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 771-772: Weber State at Utah State
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 56.088; Utah State 66.896
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 11
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 773-774: Tulsa vs. Nevada
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 66.235; Nevada 60.255
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 6
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 775-776: Nebraska vs. BYU
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 64.401; BYU 67.759
Dunkel Line: BYU by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 777-778: Rider at Siena
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 51.947; Siena 65.263
Dunkel Line: Siena by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rider (+14 1/2)
Game 779-780: Montana State at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 53.431; Boise State 56.935
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Boise State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Montana State (+8)
Game 781-782: South Dakota State at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 49.586; Minnesota 73.490
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 24
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 24 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (+24 1/2)
NHL
St. Louis at Calgary
The Blues look to build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 road games. St. Louis is the pick (+160) according to Dunkel, which has the Blues favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+160)
Game 51-52: Edmonton at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.277; Minnesota 11.152
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+135); Over
Game 53-54: Florida at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.022; NY Rangers 11.210
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-155); Over
Game 55-56: Atlanta at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 10.793; Boston 10.588
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-155); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+135); Under
Game 57-58: Buffalo at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.922; Washington 12.164
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-160); Over
Game 59-60: Montreal at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.155; Carolina 10.754
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+100); Under
Game 61-62: Toronto at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 9.888; NY Islanders 10.191
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-115); 6
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (-115); Over
Game 63-64: Ottawa at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 12.385; Pittsburgh 12.233
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-210); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+180); Over
Game 65-66: Philadelphia at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.605; Tampa Bay 10.144
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+100); Over
Game 67-68: Chicago at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 12.051; Detroit 11.951
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-120); Under
Game 69-70: Columbus at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 11.213; Dallas 11.115
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+130); Over
Game 71-72: Anaheim at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 12.044; Phoenix 11.878
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+130); Under
Game 73-74: St. Louis at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.757; Calgary 11.504
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+160); Over
SPORTS WAGERS
Buffalo +1.49 over WASHINGTON
At this price, the Sabres are almost always a must play because not only are they a strong team but they get tremendous goaltending from Ryan Miller and that’s a huge difference. Goaltenders can steal games in this league and it happens all the time and even if the Sabres get out-played here they still have a shot because of its goaltending. Should they come out strong and outplay the Caps, Washington’s goalies (Theodore or Neuvirth) cannot steal a game. What we do know is that the Caps return home from a four-game trip that involved four games in a week in three different time zones. The Caps can definitely be caught flat here and besides that, they’re just 3-3 over its last six games and that includes a 3-0 loss at Buffalo. Play: Buffalo +1.49 (Risking 2 units).
PHOENIX -½ +1.10 over Anaheim
How about the Coyotes? Wow, this team is something else. They continue to win at a high rate and if a team is not ready to go they virtually have no shot of winning. The Ducks played their hearts out last night in Colorado and rallied late to win a game they absolutely dominated and deserved to win. They outshot the Av’s 43-17. Now they’ll play back-to-back and the chances of the Ducks playing another strong game isn’t good. They’re 0-2 after a win this year in the second game of back-to-backs. They often pull a no show anyway and this situation makes it even more likely. Furthermore, it’ll be the Ducks seventh road game in its last eight contests and that, too, adds to the difficulty of this assignment. The Coyotes are just so tough to beat and with the outstanding goaltending of Ilya Bryzgalov combined with the situation being very unfavorable for the Ducks, this one just might be the best play of the night. Play: Phoenix -½ +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Philadelphia +1.08 over TAMPA BAY
The Flyers recent string of losses, stats and everything else is disturbing to say the least. How can this team go from being a contender early in the year to a complete disaster in the span of about a month or so? Philly has lost 14 of its last 17 games. They have nine goals in its last eight losses. They’ve allowed a power-play goal in six straight. The Flyers have scored two or fewer goals in 11 of their last 13 games, all of them losses. The Flyers have allowed at least one power-play goal in six straight games and have surrendered 11 in that span. They’re 3-13-1 since winning in San Jose on Nov. 20 and the list goes on. Having said that, this is a winnable game for a number of reasons. First, it’s the first game of a six-game trip and you know for sure the effort will be there. Secondly, Tampa Bay is coming off a 4-2 win over the Islanders that closed out a 2-3-1 road trip spanning 10 days and three time zones and will return home for this one. Thirdly, even the worst teams in the league don’t go on losing streaks like this and the Flyers are too talented too keep losing at this rate. And lastly, the puck line says Flyers, as they’re taking back a half puck and laying –1.57, which suggests that the books are enticing Tampa Bay money. Play: Philadelphia +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
LT Profits
Long Beach State @ Kentucky
While the Kentucky Wildcats are capable of running up the score on anyone, the problem with this total set at 153 this afternoon vs. the Long Beach State 49ers is that one team will be doing most of the scoring, which would make it difficult for this game to go Over.
Now we realize that Long Beach State is averaging 76.5 points per game, but they have yet to face a defense that is nearly this good yet. While the Kentucky offense gets most of the publicity, their defense is limiting opponents to 64.0 points per game on just 37.8 percent shooting.
If the Wildcats can keep quality good shooting teams like North Carolina to 66 points and Connecticut to 61, we feel an outclassed Long Beach team will have trouble getting out of the 50s here. As if that is not bad enough, the 49ers may come out lethargically here due to the 1:00 PM ET starting time. For those of you scoring at home, that is 10:00 AM in Long Beach.
Now the Wildcats are averaging 81.8 points per game offensively, but thanks to their defense, their games are still only averaging 145.8 points combined, more than seven points less than this posted total. In fact, Kentucky ranks 11 in the country in two-point field goal percentage against at a microscopic 39.3 percent, and they are fourth in the country in blocked shot percentage.
Look for Long Beach to score a season low in points here, and for this contest not to get out of the 140s.
Pick: Long Beach State/Kentucky Under 153