BIG AL
Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder
Last night, Kevin Durant & Co. lost a close game to the World Champion Lakers, and now have to travel to Phoenix to face the rested Suns, who suffered their first loss at home this season, 109-91 to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday night. Can Oklahoma City hand the Suns their 2nd straight home defeat? I believe they can, notwithstanding the fact that the Suns have won nine straight games vs. the Thunder. But Oklahoma City is a solid 50-36 ATS as an underdog, and Phoenix has started to cool off after its hot start: The Suns are a meager 4-7 over their last 11 ball games. Take the points with Oklahoma City.
Tom Freese
Houston Rockets at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Houston Rockets
Houston is 6-1 ATS their last 7 games as an underdog and they are 8-3 ATS their last 11 road games. The Rockets are 35-17-1 ATS vs. Southeast Division teams and they are 6-2 ATS on Wednesday. Orlando is 0-7 ATS their last 7 home games vs. the Rockets and they are 2-12 ATS their last 14 meetings with Houston. The Magic are 1-5 ATS vs. an opponent that scored 100 or more points in their last game and they are 5-11 ATS vs. Western Conference. PLAY ON HOUSTON -
DAVID MALINSKY
Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks
PICK: Washington Wizards +7.5
It does not take much to “buck the Bucks” in this role – they have one win by more than this pointspread in their last 17 games, and few victories are going to come easily. But we think the timing is particularly ideal to get behind what had been an under-achieving Washington team that we believe showed us a buy signal last night.
For the Wizards to go on a 33-19 fourth quarter run to beat Philadelphia gives the appearance of a turning point on paper, and when we dig deeper it shows even more clearly. That run just happened to come right after Flip Saunders had benched the starting lineup in the third quarter because of sloppy and unfocused play, and the reactions tell us much about what we can expect going forward.
First, from Saunders - "We had guys that were mad. I told them, 'You could be mad, but you're not half as mad as I am with the effort that we gave.' To the credit of the guys that got taken out, they were upset at the time, but they came back in and play as hard as they have in the last three or four games.” Then Gilbert Arenas - ”It was needed. I just felt like we basically gave up on our team. As a starting unit we didn't come out and give 110 percent like that second unit would've. You couldn't complain.” And Caron Butler, who scored 10 points in the final stanza - "It's not personal. Everybody is trying to get the same goal -- they are trying to win games. If a coach do that, it's discipline, you accept it, take a smack on the wrist and you get prepared to get back out there and show what you're capable of doing. You can't hold no grudges. Can't be disappointed in nobody because it's a mirror for that."
While the Bucks struggle to get margins, the Wizards have only lost by four points one time in their last 11 games, a defeat that can easily be excused at Phoenix at the end of a west coast swing. They are in the hunt to the final buzzer to win this one outright, playing with the renewed energy that last night’s turnaround will bring.
LARRY NESS
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Sacramento Kings
PICK: Sacramento Kings +6
Cleveland handed Phoenix its first home loss of the season on Monday night (109-91) but earlier that night the Kings overcame a 35-point deficit to beat the Bulls in Chicago, 107-103. Sacramento fell behind 79-44 with 8:50 left in the third quarter Monday night but would pull off the biggest comeback win in the NBA since Utah defeated Denver after trailing by 36 on November 27, 1996. It's been a season of surprises for the Kings. Sacramento was an NBA-worst 17-65 last year but Paul Westphal has made this team competitive this year (Kings are 13-14), despite the loss of leading scorer Kevin Martin (23.7 and 24.6 PPG the L2 years) after just six games and without the services at all of swingman Garcia (about 13.5 PPG the L2 years). Rookie PG Evans (20.1-5.2-5.0) has been better than advertised while backup PG Udrih (14.0-3.9 APG) has been excellent in filling in for and playing alongside of Evans this season. Donta Greene (8.2) has played some small forward and big guard while Rodriguez (6.2) has often shown glimpses of getting in the scoring act. Both 6-11 players, Thompson (15.4-9.2) and Hawes (10.3-5.8) are playing well with Nocioni (10.9-3.9) contributing on a regular basis in the frontcourt and 6-9 rookie Casspi (from Israel) upping his average to 11.5 PPG on the season by topping 20 points in three of his last seven games. The Cavs easily beat the Suns in Shaq's return to Phoenix but "the Big Fella" had little to do with the win, playing 19 minutes while scoring three points and adding five rebounds. The Cavs won 66 games last year but are on pace to win less than 60 this year but of course, Shaq's acquisition was intended to make the Cavs more competitive come May and June, not in December (we'll see?). LeBron is putting up typical numbers (28.7-6.8-7.8), Williams (16.5-4.8 APG) remains the team's "second scoring option" and the Cavs are once again an excellent three-point shooting team (ranks 2nd at 42.1 percent). However, no team likes to be away for the holidays and this figures to be a tough spot for the Cavs. They became the first team to win all season at Phoenix on Monday and have a Christmas Day showdown with the Kobe and the Lakers on Friday. The Kings are 10-3 SU at home while averaging 109.6 PPG. Take the points.
Hollywood Sports
Cleveland Cavaliers at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Sacramento Kings
The surprising Sacramento Kings (13-14) enjoyed what will likely be a signature moment in this club's resurgence on Monday as they fought back from a 35-point deficit to defeat Chicago by a 102-98 score. Led by rookie sensation Tyreke Evans, the Kings have quickly adopted coach Paul Westphal's fast-paced style of play. They now return home after their three-game road trip having won two of those games. Sacramento will be very motivated to test themselves against LeBron and the Cavs. The Kings are an impressive 10-3 at home. They score 109.3 PPG on solid 48.3% shooting. And Sacramento plays good defense at home as they hold their opponents to just 45.1% shooting. The Cavaliers (21-8) score less than 100 points on the road on just a 46.3% shooting percentage. This will be Cleveland third game on their road trip after their 109-91 win at Phoenix on Monday. That was an emotional win for the Cavaliers as it offered Shaquille O'Neal the opportunity for some payback against his former team. It would not be surprising if the Cavaliers are flat against this upstart Kings club. The Cavs have covered only three times in their last eleven games against teams with a losing record. On the other hand, the Kings have covered in four of their last five games against teams with a winning road record. Sacramento's offensive strength should keep them in this game. Take the points with the Kings.
JR TIPS
CAVS at KINGS
The Cleveland Cavaliers just handed the Phoenix Suns its first home loss Monday night and the Sacramento Kings completed one of the come backs in NBA history overcoming a 35 point deficit to beat the Chicago Bulls 107-103. Ime Udoka scored 15 of the Kings' first 22 points in the fourth quarter and rookie Tyreke Evans scored 23 points and outscored the Bulls 9-3 in the final 2 minutes. LeBron James scored 29 points in the 109-91 victory at Phoenix and one of five players to score in double figures for the Cavs who are winners of six of seven. James is averaging 34.0 points in his last six road games and scored 51 in a 126-123 overtime victory against the Kings last year. This is a possible trap game at Arco Arena tonight after playing Phoenix and visiting the Los Angeles Lakers on Christmas day. Cleveland has won its last four games in Sacramento and six straight overall in the series but this Kings team is 10-3 at home and far better than last year’s team winning two straight and four of six. Both teams will be playing with a lot of momentum and confidence tonight as you will see a bit of a letdown from Cleveland on defense playing their sandwich game before they meet the Lakers and Kobe Bryant for the most anticipated game of the season. These teams get up and down the court when they play each other scoring over 240 points combined in their last matchup. Both teams will have no trouble scoring points tonight as you will see another high scoring game.
TAKE OVER 202
Chris Jordan
Houston +8' at ORLANDO
Going to side with the Rockets in this huge interconference showdown, as the Rockets are aiming for their third consecutive win and fourth straight against Orlando.
Houston comes in riding a 6-1 streak both straight-up and against the spread against these Magic, including winning and covering the last three.
Though Orlando has won 11 of 13 at Amway Arena this season, the Rockets are amazingly a perfect 7-0 on the wood and at the books the last seven trips there. And that includes four outright wins.
Houston has generally dominated the series, winnning and covering 12 of the last 14 meetings.
Orlando rides in on ATS slides of of 2-5 overall, 5-11 against Western Conference foes, 0-4 versus Southwest Division clubs and 1-5 against winning teams.
5♦ ROCKETS
Drew Gordon
Golden State +9' at NEW ORLEANS
25-15-2 roll L42 Free Plays, including the Grizzlies over the Warriors 121-108 last night! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Warriors-Hornets match up.
Wait a sec? I picked against the Warriors last night, and now one day later, I'm siding with them in the tail end of a back-to-back? Is there some kind of mistake? No mistake - I assure you - I'm liking the Warriors a lot today for a variety reasons, but let's start perception.
Vegas isn't stupid, I told you that yesterday. And with the Warriors skid hitting 5 straight losses SUATS, we're finally starting to see some value with the road dog here. I'm not going to sugarcoat it, Golden State is playing some piss-poor basketball right now, BUT that's exactly what the guys in Vegas are hoping you're thinking when 'capping this contest. Sorry Hornets-backers, but you're in for a disappointment tonight.
I know full well situationally this is a good spot for New Orleans, having not played since Sunday, but that's not the entire story. The Hornets are coming home for one game, and then go back out to Chicago after Christmas. My point is, situationally its difficult for a team to "gear up" for a single home game that's followed by a road trip... Focus just isn't there. Don't believe me? Check out the last 3 times this happened to New Orleans: A loss to Portland on Nov 13th, an OT win by the skin of their teeth against the Bucks Nov. 25th, and a bad loss to the Knicks Dec. 11th. It's by no means a guarantee, but it is a factor to consider.
Bottom line, I know bettors are aware of the Hornets strong home play, and the Warriors overall struggles, but so is Vegas! They're counting on you to dismiss the Warriors in this match up, but I for one will not make that mistake. In fact, did you know the Warriors are 8-3-1 ATS in their L12 meetings?! In the end, the Hornets almost certainly win SU, but the Warriors reward their backers (what few are left) with the cash!
Take Golden State plus the points over New Orleans in this NBA match up.
2♦ GOLDEN STATE
Tony Weston
Bad call on Ohio State yesterday as the Buckeyes fall short against Cleveland State.
I’m not missing another one today as I’m coming through with Kentucky at home against visiting Long Beach State.
Coming into this game the Wildcats have covered in 3 of their last 4 games and have picked up big SU wins the last two weeks over North Carolina and UConn.
Consider, too, Kentucky is beating its opponents by more than 20 points per game at home (85.1-65) and is beating teams by nearly 18 points per game overall this year (81.8-64).
Now they face a Long Beach State team that got killed its last road game against a Top 5 team, losing 107-74 at Texas on Dec. 7. Also, the 49ers have covered in just 1 of their last 3 games and won’t cover today at Kentucky as the Wildcats will roll easily.
3♦ KENTUCKY
WUNDERDOG
Columbus at Dallas
Pick: Columbus +130
What happened to the Blue Jackets? They were sailing along and now have had just two of their last 15 end on the right side. Those numbers could be so different if not for the fact they have five shootout losses in the stretch, so it's not as bad as it appears. Dallas hasn't been pretty lately either as they have allowed 47 goals in their last 13 games, or 3.6 per contest. There is certainly room for Columbus to find a way to get healthy here as they are 5-1 in their last six vs. a team with a losing home record. The Stars aren't shinning in the home-favorite role from -110 to -150, at just 3-9 in their last 12. There is added value by the Jackets' success in Dallas winning five of the last seven. I'll go with Columbus here.
Jack Jones
Washington Wizards vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -7
The Bucks have been very solid at home this year, scoring 103.6 ppg against teams allowing 99.2 ppg and compared to their 98 average in all contests. Defensively this team hasn't been bad either, allowing 98.9 ppg against teams scoring 98.5, a big reason they spot a 9-5 mark on their home floor.
They'll be playing a below average team tonight in the Washington Wizards, who enter tonight's game at 9-17 and 4-10 on the road. They are scoring just 96.1 ppg as a visitor against teams allowing 99.6 and giving up 102.9 ppg against teams averaging 99.4.
With Washington playing on back-to-back nights, and the Bucks having covered six of their last seven games, I'd say the edge tonight is with the home team.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on New Orleans Hornets -10
Bottom Line: Golden State is 0-6 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 games and I expect its struggles to continue tonight. The Warriors just lost by 13 to Memphis last night and it gets no easier, as now they face a rested and hungry Hornets team looking to avenge a loss to Toronto last game. The Warriors are just 3-13 on the road this season, losing by an average of 8.5 points and I don't think New Orleans will have any trouble covering the 10 here, especially when you consider that Golden State is now 4-13 ATS in road games in December the last 2 seasons, losing by 11.8 points on average. Bet the Hornets.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Hawks/Nuggets UNDER 207
The public is all over the Over here because these teams combined for 225 points in Atlanta last month, but Denver has struggled on offense with Chauncey Billups not at 100% and Atlanta is faced with the challenge of playing back-to-back road games here. The Under is 7-1 in the Hawks' last 8 road games and 4-1 in the Nuggets' last 5 overall. We'll bet the Under for 1 Unit.
John Ryan
Atlanta Thrashers vs. Boston Bruins
Play: Boston Bruins
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Boston as they host Atlanta in NHL action set to start at 7:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 44-16 making 30.8 units since 2004. Play against any team against the money line revenging a same season loss vs opponent and is off 2 consecutive close home losses by 1 goal. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 69-44 making 26 units since 2004. Play against any team against the money line extremely tired team playing 8 or more games in 14 days and winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season in the first half of the season. Boston is a solid 31-15 against the money line (+14.6 Units) against explosive offensive teams that are scoring 3+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons. Take Boston.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Denver Nuggets -3
I'll back the rested Nuggets at home tonight in this revenge spot against a Hawks team playing back-to-back. Denver is 12-1 at home this season and it will be looking to pay Atlanta back for handing it its worse loss of the season in Atlanta last month. The last time the Hawks played back-to-back, they lost to the lowly Chicago Bulls on Dec. 19. The home team is on a 4-1 ATS run and the Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take the Nuggets for 1 Unit.