GREG SHAKER
NC Charlotte 49ers at Old Dominion Monarchs
Play: Under 129.5
Nobody is going to argue the fact that NC Charlotte is a good basketball team and the same can be said of ODU. The visitors have very good offensive efficiency but you can make buckets unless you have the ball and they are not going to have the ball often tonight. This Monarchs Team crawls up the court everytime they have the ball and that is why they are ranked #331 in this country with tempo. So what do they do when they don't have the ball? They don't allow the other team to score, that's what. That is especially true on this court where visitors have only managed 36% shooting and a pautry 48 points per game. That is why they have a #11 ranking for D Efficiency. They do have a way of controlling the pace and even playing Mizzu this year, a team that is a definite pusher, we saw just 127 points on a total set at 141.5. Actually, Charlotte is slower than usual setting up for shots and they are not likely on most possessions to run the court. ODU has very good rebounding skills and blocks out as good as anyone I have seen this year. They just don't often allow more than one chance at the hoop and on the offensive side, they setup well for the return. I expect two things to happen tonight. Less than 110 shots taken. Less than average shooting % by the visitors. That is going to give us what we want and barring OT I think we have a winner here.
Dan Bebe
UTA +1 vs MIA
The Jazz have quietly covered 3 of 4 games on their current road trip, playing much, much better than I would have expected from this club. Utah opened this road trip with a win over New Jersey, and after getting bopped in Atlanta (who hasn't?), they beat Charlotte, and played Orlando tough from start to finish. Tonight, they get to tackle the Heat, who seem to have regressed markedly in their last game, a home loss to the Blazers.
Miami's defense allowed Portland to shoot over 50% for the game, and that bodes very poorly for Miami in this one. Utah's offense is significantly more efficient than Portland's, and Utah's ability to grab offensive rebounds should help the Jazz when they do miss shots. Miami might be looking ahead to a Christmas Day showdown with the Knicks, and I am inclined to believe the bad defense that once again reared its head in the Blazers game will continue to be an issue in this one. Utah's clever offensive sets should give the Jazz plenty of open shots, and Utah seems bent on putting together a decent road trip and earning some respect outside of their home building.
Moreover, the public continues to blindly back Dwyane Wade, even though Miami has been extremely streaky this year. They played good ball for a few days on a west coast road trip, came home, stunk for a few games, Wade called his teammates out, they played well for 2 games, and now they're regressing. For Miami, as the defense goes, so goes the team, and if they can't hold the slow, plodding Blazers under 50% from the field, Miami is in big trouble in this one. Play the Jazz to close the pre-Christmas schedule with a nice performance.
SPORTS WAGERS
Golden State +10 over NEW ORLEANS
The Hornets are strong at home but this is too many points for this team to be laying to anyone. New Orleans has been a double-digit favorite once this season and didn’t come close to covering. They’ve been an 8½-point or more favorite three times and failed to cover all three, once against the T-Wolves and twice against Sacramento. Yes, the Warriors are hurting and they’ll play the tail end of back-to-backs here after a 13-point loss in Memphis last night. However, Monta Ellis got into early foul trouble and played just 34 minutes. The Warriors have been decent playing back-to-back with three covers in six tries and these Hornets will not dominate inside like the Grizz did on the Warriors last night. Furthermore, the Warriors almost always play this team tough, as its eight covers in the last 11 meetings will attest to. Play: Golden State +10 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Toronto +1.05 over DETROIT
The Raps are an enigma for sure. They can look so good one night and putrid the next. However, a close look reveals that they have nothing but trouble against high scoring teams but does well against teams that are offensively challenged. In fact, the Raps have two wins over New Orleans, two over the Bulls, one already against the Pistons and one win over New Jersey, Minnesota and Indiana, all teams that struggle offensively. Furthermore, the Pistons are 1-6 on zero days rest and that’s the situation they’re in tonight after a 76-point performance in Charlotte last night. The Raps are rested, they’re loaded with shooters and these teams that cannot score have trouble keeping up with them. Play: Toronto +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
SACRAMENTO +2.18 over Cleveland
This is just the perfect spot for an upset to occur. The Cav’s are coming off a win in Phoenix and they’ll be featured on Christmas day on NBC playing the Lakers in Los Angeles. That’s definitely a game they could be looking ahead to, thus making this the classic sandwich game times 10. Not only because it’s the Lakers but because it’s a game the whole nation will tune into. In addition, the Kings have proven to be a tough out indeed at home with a 10-3 record. Under different circumstances the Cav’s would crush this host and they still might do exactly that. However, the price and situation make the Kings very worth of taking a shot on. Play: Sacramento +2.18 (Risking 2 units).