Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday December, 26

David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland vs. WashingtonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland is 6-23 SU and 12-17 ATS; it's coming off a 94-82 win at Milwaukee on the 22nd. Dion Waiters had 18 points; Kyrie Irving scored 15. Note though that Cleveland is 1-3 ATS as a favorite this year, and 3-7 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record.
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Washington is 3-22 SU and 12-11-2 ATS; it's lost seven in a row, including a 96-87 setback to Detroit as a 1 point underdog on the 22nd.
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Bradley Beal had 14 points, five boards and four assists.
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This sets up as a revenge game for the Wizards, who lost 94-84 in Cleveland on October 30th.
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Note that Washington is 13-10 ATS as an underdog and 8-5 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record so far this season.
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A couple of bottom feeders going head to head; I simply feel there are enough significant external factors working in favor of the home side to warrant it a second look in this particular matchup.

Stephen NoverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Bulls vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Indiana PacersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago had been on a nice 7-2 run until hitting a rut with consecutive bad losses to Atlanta on Saturday and to Houston at home on Tuesday. The Bulls lost these games by a combined 40 points. Now the Bulls have to regroup, go back on the road traveling into a blizzard to play a rested Indiana team that has won and covered six of its last eight home games.
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I don't see the Bulls hanging it. Houston was just 3-7 on the road until blasting the Bulls. The Rockets, who are more guard-oriented with James Harden, dominated the Bulls inside outscoring them, 66-32, in the paint.
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This doesn't bode well for the Bulls facing a rugged Pacers squad that rebounds well and is ranked first in fewest points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage. The Rockets also outscored Chicago, 31-8, in transition. Harden and Jeremy Lin teamed up to produce 46 points. The Bulls are hurting in the backcourt minus Derrick Rose. In addition, Luol Deng suffered an ankle injury against the Rockets and may not play.
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Indiana defeated Chicago, 80-76, at United Center on Dec. 4. The Pacers weren't playing as consistent back then as they are now. Indiana has won six of its last seven to move to four games above .500. Chicago has failed to cover in 10 of its last 14 games when playing an opponent with a winning mark.
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Indiana has been idle since Saturday. Chicago is playing for the fourth time in five days and second in two days. The Bulls already have lost road games by seven points to New Orleans and by eight to Portland - two teams worse than Indiana - when playing on the second of consecutive nights.
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Sometimes it can be a mistake to read too much into a blowout loss. I don't want to overreact to Chicago losing two in a row in bad fashion. But this is a very bad situational spot for the Bulls.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Pistons at Atlanta HawksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Atlanta HawksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit is off two rare wins, but the streak ends here. They were favored in both those games, a pair against the Wizards. The Pistons are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 2-7 ATS following a win. Detroit heads to Atlanta and the Pistons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Hawks are rested, having not played since Saturday, and a strong defensive club allowing 93.8 ppg (5th in the NBA). The Hawks are 27-13-3 ATS in their last 43 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. And when these teams meet the home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play the Hawks.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards
Pick: Cleveland CavaliersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Two awful teams in action here, and no Varajeo for Cleveland. But the Cavs at least can create some offense with Irving running the show, and that's been an area where the Wizards have been hopelessly inept with no John Wall. Someone has to win, I'll side with the Cavaliers.

Jimmy Boyd

Washington Wizards -1

The Cavaliers, who are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall, enter with some momentum following a 94-82 win in Milwaukee. However, they are a poor 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win and 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games following an ATS win. It is also worth noting that they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games versus teams that have a losing record.

The Wizards have dropped their last seven but this losing streak swings the line value in their favor. After all, they are on a 72-45 ATS run in games following 5 or more consecutive losses. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

The Cavs have been a poor investment in games oddsmakers expect to be close. In fact, they are on a 10-25 ATS slide in games when the line is +3 to -3 and have lost these contests by an average of 5.0 points. Bet the Wizards.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New Orleans Hornets vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando MagicFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Orlando was expected to be involved in a rebuilding season and so far, that has been the case but the Magic have actually played better than most thought. They are three games under .500 after starting the year 3-7 so they have played .500 basketball for over a month now yet are still not getting much respect. They have dropped two in a row but tonight sets up a good opportunity to snap that mini-skid against one of the worst teams in the NBA. New Orleans is 5-22 which is the worst record in the Western Conference and the second worst record in the entire league and it comes into this one on an 11-game losing skid. The Hornets are 2-11 on the road including loss in six straight. Because of the big pointspread, they have actually been respectable at the betting window but tonight they are catching a very small number and on the season they are just 2-5 ATS as underdogs of fewer than five points. Orlando falls into a solid situation based on New Orleans' last game as we play against underdogs coming off a home loss scoring fewer than 80 points. This situation is 73-38 ATS (65.8 percent) over the last five seasons. Additionally, Orlando is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a spread loss while the Hornets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Eastern Conference.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Western Kentucky -6 over Central Michigan: On Dec. 10 it was announced that Petrino, the former Arkansas head coach, would be taking over for Western Kentucky following this season. Petrino is 75-26 all-time as a head coach but was fired from Arkansas last summer after a scandal involving an Arkansas staff member. However in this game it will be defensive coordinator Lance Guidry who will serve as interim head coach for the departing Willie Taggart. Under Taggart, Western Kentucky posted a record of 7-5, which gave the Hilltoppers their second straight seven-win season after the team managed only four total wins in the previous three years. The Hilltoppers stumbled down the stretch to get there with losses in three straight before a 25-24 win over North Texas in the regular-season finale. Even more importantly, Western Kentucky is playing in its first bowl game ever since moving to the FBS level in 2007. Despite being a mediocre offensive team this season, Western Kentucky did have one of the best offensive weapons in the country in running back Antonio Andrews. The All-Sun Belt First Team member had a spectacular season both on the ground and through the air. Andrews finished the regular season with 2,977 all-purpose yards which is the third best single-season mark in Division I history and only 273 yards behind the all-time mark set by Barry Sanders in 1988. Even with Andrews the Hilltoppers still ranked near the middle of the Sun Belt in scoring (28.8 ppg, fifth) and total offense (392.3 ypg, sixth). Kawaun Jakes is the man under center. Jakes was efficient this season, completing 64.6 percent of his passes, while throwing for 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Western Kentucky had much more star power on defense and was markedly better on that side of the ball in 2012. The Hilltoppers were the best team in their conference in terms of total yards allowed (342.8 ypg), while ranking second in scoring defense (25.6 ppg). The key was how well Western Kentucky got upfield and made plays, leading the Sun Belt in tackles for loss (90) and sacks (31).

As for Central Michigan, the Chippewas needed to wait until the final game of the season to earn their bowl bid. The Chippewas were just 3-6 with three games remaining but managed to pull out three straight wins, two coming on the road, to earn the six victories necessary for bowl eligibility. With the win at UMass to end the regular season, the Chippewas earned their first bowl bid since 2009 and seventh overall. This is also the fifth bowl game in the last seven seasons for Central Michigan. In those previous contests the Chippewas have a 2-4 record with the most recent decision a 44-41 win over Troy in the GMAC Bowl, which is now the GoDaddy.com Bowl. Like Western Kentucky, Central Michigan wasn't anything special when it came to overall offensive numbers. The Hilltoppers ranked seventh in the Mid- American Conference in total yards (394.1 ypg) and tied for sixth in scoring offense (29.3 ppg). Central Michigan did excel when it managed to get drives into the red zone, converting on a MAC-leading 88.89 percent of its attempts. Ryan Radcliff is the signal caller for the Chippewas. Radcliff didn't complete an extremely high percentage of his pass attempts (59.0), but did throw for 2,905 yards and 20 touchdowns with only nine interceptions. Radcliff threw for the fifth most yards per game in the MAC (242.1) and was the fourth highest rated passer (136.3). In the running game, Zurlon Tipton has been the workhorse for the Chippewas. Tipton has piled up 1,391 yards on 229 carries. No other player on the team has more than 53 carries for 235 yards. On defense Central Michigan was rather pedestrian in comparison to the rest of the conference. The Chippewas were the seventh best team in the MAC in yards allowed (441.2 ypg) and ninth in scoring defense (33.3 ppg). While the offense constantly found success in the red zone the defense was almost always giving up scores, with the 11th best opponent conversion rate (86.8 percent) in the conference. Central Michigan also failed to get much in terms of negative plays with the fewest tackles for loss (47.0) in the MAC.

The Pick: I am going with the Hilltoppers in this one. The Chippewas took this bowl game to hopefully sell seats, but let’s note that in their final home game vs Akron just 7200 fans showed up, while 35000 showed up for an earlier game vs Michigan State. No real home field edge here. The Chipps did go 4-1 down the stretch, but a closer look shows that their 4 wins were vs teams with a combined 9-41 record. Not very impressive at all. Overall this year the Chippewas have played 5 bow teams and have gone 0-5 SU & ATS vs them, while getting outgained by 126 ypg in those games. Another not-so-impressive number. CMU has played the 118th tough schedule in the nation, yet they are still 67th in total offense (393.3 ypg) and 65th in scoring (29.3 ppg), while also checking in at 94th in total defense (441 ypg) and 98th in points allowed (33.3 pg) vs that weak schedule. WKU hasn’t faced that tough of a schedule either and they are 1-3 SU (3-1 ATS) vs Bowl teams, while being outgained by 45 ypg vs them. Their overall strength of schedule is pretty low, and their offense is about the same as the Chipps vs that schedule, but defense is where this Hilltopper team gets a big edge as they check in at 23rd overall (344.4 ypg) and 51st in points allowed (25.6 ppg). Yes possible distractions are in store for the Hilltoppers, with the departure of their head coach, but let’s also note that Interim coach Lance Guidry has experience in these unique, coach-bailing situations, having led Miami-OH to a bowl win two seasons ago against Middle Tennessee after that Miami team’s head coach flew the coop to Pitt. Finial nails in the coffin for CMU is the fact that sub .600 MAC bowlers are 1-7 SU & ATS, while WKU is 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs sub .600 opponents. WKU is the better team here and behind their tough defense they should win by DD.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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INDIANA -4 over ChicagoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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No question the Bulls have overachieved this year without the services of Derrick Rose. In a beat down at home yesterday by the Rockets, Luol Deng sprained an ankle. That leaves the Bulls without Rose, Deng and Rip Hamilton. Deng was nursing some nagging injuries before the injury (torn ligament in his wrist, strained muscle in his left shoulder) and that might explain why the Bulls have dropped their past two by a combined 40 points.
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Indiana is warming up, specifically Paul George. George was named Eastern Conference Player of the Week after averaging 23.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.3 blocks while shooting 47.4 percent from three-point range. The Pacers have won three in a row, six of seven and they’re now 8-2 when George scores 20 or more. A surging Pacers team is a cheap spot here against a demoralized and banged up guest.
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CHARLOTTE +10 over MiamiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Playing on Christmas Day in the NBA is the closest thing to playing in the playoffs during the regular season. There is excitement, anticipation and an aura that has the same feel as a playoff game. The players know that the ESPN/ABC coverage on Christmas Day is one of the largest viewing audiences of the year, not just in basketball but in all sports.
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The Heat played an intense, 48-minute slugfest with the Thunder yesterday that came down to the final shot. Now they have to go and play a team that has dropped 15 in a row. The Bobcats will be jacked up while the Heat will just show up. This angle of fading teams in the tail end of back-to-backs after playing on Christmas Day is a strong angle that has shown a consistent profit over the years. It comes into play here.
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MILWAUKEE -3 over BrooklynFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After starting the year on a tear and looking very good in doing so, the Nets have sunk pack into the middle of the pack with just three wins in their past 12 games. Additionally, Brooklyn played yesterday and looked at half speed in an embarrassing loss to the Celtics to tip off the Christmas Day festivities.
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Milwaukee went into Brooklyn on December 9 and beat the Nets 97-88. Incredibly enough it was their 12th straight up loss in a row to this team. Milwaukee's guard duo of Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings outscored Brooklyn’s backcourt duo of Deron Williams and Joe Johnson to the tune of 50-24. The Bucks have a rebounding and bench advantage and coming off two losses in a row should have them plenty focused to get back on track against a team they own.

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CENTRAL MICHIGAN +6½ over Western Kentucky
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It’s difficult to predict how the WKU players will react to the departure of head coach Willie Haggert due to the program’s hiring of Rick Petrino. Lance Guidry will serve as interim head coach for the departing Taggart for this game and that has us a little uneasy. The Hilltoppers best pass rusher, Quanterus Smith is out and it’s also worth noting that this is WKU’s first ever Bowl game and it comes with distractions. Not the best scenario to be spotting points to a CMU team that is essentially playing this one in its own backyard.
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You’re likely going to read about how the Chippewas were outgained by nearly every opponent this season with the exception of the 1-12 expansion UMass Minutemen. But as is often the case, those basic stats don't always reveal the truth. Central Michigan played in the offense-oriented MAC Conference, which meant games against Toledo, Ball State and Northern Illinois. They also faced Michigan State and Iowa. When we look at the all-important momentum we see a CMU team that won its final three games of the season while WKU lost three of its final four with only win over that span coming against North Texas. The Chips can win this game outright and with 5½-points to play with, we’ll confidently back this MAC club against a 4-4 Sun Belt outfit.

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Denver Nuggets -4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Nuggets will be the hungrier team tonight. They will be out for some serious revenge for last month's ugly loss to the Lakers in LA. It should be a different story in Denver where the Nugs are 8-1 SU (7-2 ATS) this season. The home team is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last 3 meetings, and Denver won 113-96 the last time it hosted. Lay the points.

WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia at Memphis
Pick: Memphis -9FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis is 12-2 at home and coming off an ugly loss to Houston in which the Grizzlies allowed 121 points and lost by 25 points. I think they take their frustrations out on Philadelphia tonight. Opponents traveling to Memphis this season have been held to just 86.9 points per game. Given that the 76ers average just 91.2 per game on the road, scoring here will be very tough for Doug Collins' squad. Since last season, Philly is just 21-34 ATS on the road vs. winning teams. Meanwhile, over the past three seasons, Memphis is 57-37 ATS overall at home (and 84-64 ATS at home in the Hollins era). Play Memphis to notch a double-digit win.

Hollywood SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago at IndianaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If head coach Tom Thibodeau is half as mad at the effort of his Chicago team on the defensive end of the court last night, then expect a strong effort tonight from the Bulls and their defensive intensity. In their humiliating 120-97 loss to Houston last night, Chicago (15-12) let the Rockets nail 56.1% of their shots -- and this was on the heels of a 17-point loss the game in Atlanta. Said Thibodeau: "If you are not right and don't have an edge, you are not going to win without the right amount of intensity ? They completely outplayed us from the start." Historically, the Bulls do respond with strong defensive efforts after embarrassing themselves. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a double-digit loss at home. Chicago has also played a definitive 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last game. The Bulls have also played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total played without a day of rest. Furthermore, Chicago has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 5 games against teams from the Central Division, they have played 4 of these games Under the Total. Indiana (16-12) comes off their 81-75 win at New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Pacers have played 4 straight games Under the Total when played without at least three days of rest. The Pacers have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. And in their last 7 games against fellow rivals from the Central Division, Indiana has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Lastly, in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Indiana, the game finished Under the Total in 5 of these occasions. Take the Under in this one.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play:Milwaukee BucksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bucks have owned the Nets of late in this series winning and covering in 12 straight games. Tonight Milwaukee Fits a Nice system direct from the database that plays on home favorites like the Bucks that have 3 or more days rest and scored 90 or less as a home favorite in their last game. These teams have covered over 80% of the time the past several years. The Bucks coasted to a 9 point win and cover in Brooklyn a few weeks ago and they have won 3 of 4 after scoring 85 or less and 5 of 7 after a double digit loss. The Nets are 2-10 to the spread in December and 1-5 as a road dog of 3 or less, 0-3 ats with revenge and 4-9 vs winning teams. Look for the Bucks to get the cash tonight.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto vs. San Antonio
Pick: TorontoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Spurs are a great team at home and are coming off one of their best performances of the year against the Dallas Mavericks. I just feel this is going to be a lot points for them to cover against a scrappy Raptors team this is also playing it's best basketball of the season.
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The Raptors have won five in a row SU while covering the spread in four of those games. The Raps are playing solid team ball in the absence of two of their better players in Andrea Bargnani and Kyle Lowry.
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PG Jose Calderon has averaged 14 points and 10.7 assists over the past six games.
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Note: the Raptors have played the Spurs tough this year, losing the last game to them in an overtime thriller 111-06. San Antonio has beaten Toronto in the last two matchups by an average of just 6.5 points. I expect this will give the Raptors confidence.
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The Spurs are 0-1 this year ATS when faced with a 12.5 to 15 point spreads.
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San Antonio has struggled a little recently, havin lost four of its last seven games, failing to cover spread in all but two of those games.
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While I certainly admit this is going to be extremely tough for the Raptors to win in San Antonio despite their current hot streak, I think it will be even tougher for the Spurs to cover the this huge point spread.