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Cleveland vs. Washington
Pick: WashingtonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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While I'm currently riding a 17-5 streak with my premium NBA plays, I did lose with the Wizards in their last game - after having successfully played against them in the previous game.
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I think I was just a game too early though and that they're worth another look here.
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While the Wizards are admittedly pretty bad, they do have four fewer losses here at Washington than the Cavaliers to do the road.
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In the last month, the Wizards have beaten both Portland and Miami here, while staying very close vs. the likes of the Lakers and Warriors. Naturally, the Cavs, who appear likely to be without Varejao, aren't in the class as those teams.
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While the Cavs are 0-1 ATS when playing with three or more day's rest in between games, the Wizards are 3-0 ATS when in that situation. The most recent time that they played with three or more day's rest was their outright win over the Heat.
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While the Cavs are 1-3 ATS off an upset win, the Wizards, who lost at Cleveland on 10/30, are 9-7 ATS their last 16 in the "revenge" role.
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Ultimately, with the pointspread a non-factor, I feel homecourt will prove the difference. Take a look at Washington.
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Chicago vs. Indiana
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After getting lit up by the Rockets last night, expect Chicago HC Tom Thibodeau to change tactics this evening at Bankers Life Fieldhouse against Indiana. In other words, dial-back the tempo to more comofrtable pace. No surprise that first meeting back on Dec. 4 at United Center didn’t even come close to the posted “total” of 180, and Pacers and Bulls struggled to reach the 150s in Indiana’s grinding 80-76 win. Of course, having big weapons sidelined for each side (Danny Granger and Derrick Rose) contributed to the lower score, but these two teams also went “under” in all three meetings a year ago, and Pacers recently went 12 games without cracking 100-point barrier. Expect another root canal game after these sides shot a poor 36% (Pacers) and 38% (Bulls) from floor in first meeting.
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Sacramento Kings +7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Kings are showing some solid value tonight as a 7-point dog against the Trailblazers. Sacramento beat Portland at home 108-96 on Sunday for their second win in the series this season. The Kings already had a 99-80 win at Portland back on Dec. 8. I think it's pretty safe to say after a couple of double-digit wins that Sacramento matchups up pretty well with Portland. The Trailblazers are a miserable 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games when they are revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more! It's also worth noting that the Kings are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games at Portland, which makes sense considering the Trailblazers are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
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Chicago Bulls +5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chicago Bulls have been a very resilient team under head coach Tom Thibodeau. After an embarrassing 97-120 home loss to the red hot Houston Rockets on Christmas Day, I look for the Bulls to come back highly motivated for a win tonight.
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Thibodeau is 26-10 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Chicago. He is also 36-20 ATS after one or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago. Meanwhile, Frank Vogel is just 9-22 ATS after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games as the coach of Indiana.
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Dating back further, Chicago is 45-21-2 ATS in its last 68 games following a S.U. loss. The Bulls are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. I simply believe that Indiana is overvalued heading into this one. Bet the Bulls Wednesday.
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New Orleans Hornets at Orlando Magic
Play: New Orleans HornetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The (5-22) New Orleans Hornets of the NBA Western Conference Southwest division will take on the (12-15) Orlando Magic of the Eastern Conference Southeast division in 2012 NBA action. New Orleans have covered their last 6 NBA Play's Against The Spread vs. Orlando. The Hornets are on a 10 games losing streak straight up. The Orlando Magic are 4-2 ATS their last 6, but have lost their last 2 straight up. New Orleans gets the road cover.
Andre Gomes
hiladelphia / Memphis Under 183.5
Memphis is coming from a loss in Houston, where they wanted to run with the Rockets and they got crushed. The same had happened with their game at Denver, in another fast paced game. Both the Rockets and the Grizzlies like to play at a fast pace (#1 and #3 on pace factor respectively), but Philadelphia is just #28 in that rank, so tonight's game will see the Grizzlies getting back to their slow paced games. After getting crushed at Houston, I expect a good mindset for the Grizzlies defense tonight.
"I thought we hung our hats on defense," Tony Allen said. "That's how we win games. I'm sure we'll look at film and fix it."
Memphis is a top 3 perimeter defensive team and that's tough for Philadelphia, who depends from their perimeter shooting and they are even without Jason Richardson once again. With Evan Turner being defended by Tony Allen and Jrue Holiday by Mike Conley, the Sixers offense is definitely in trouble for tonight.
The Sixers are a team that have a very low number of turnovers and in order to avoid turning the ball over, they play at a very slow pace. That's good against a Grizzlies defense that wants to create turnovers. Obviously, Philadelphia's offense is based on pick and roll ball handler plays with Jrue Holiday or Evan Turner having the ball on their hands. The Sixers shoot a lot from 16-23 feet, but the Grizzlies defense is #5 on pick and roll ball handler defense and #6 on 16-23 feet defense with just 34.9% FG allowed. Therefore, Philadelphia's offense will definitely struggle a lot tonight.
On the other hand, Philadelphia may not have good enough frontcourt players to stop the Grizzlies frontcourt, but Doug Collins' system is solid. Philadelphia is #10 on defensive rebounding and currently improving, while they are #3 in points in the paint allowed per game with 38.4 ppg. The Sixers close really well the paint, but they struggle in closing the perimeter, where they are just #25 on 3pts defense with 37.2% 3pts allowed. The good part for the Sixers is that Memphis is just #29 on 3pts attempts per game with 14.7 and besides that, they are just shooting 33.3% 3pts on their last 10 games! Philadelphia had three games against the Lakers, Dallas and Houston where they struggled on defense, but they got pounded on free throws and 3pts shots in those games, something that won't happen tonight against a Grizzlies team that don't want to shoot from the outside. Jrue Holiday also didn't play those games and he is the team's best perimeter defender.
I expect tonight's game will be a really slow contest, with Philadelphia getting shutdown on offense, while the Grizzlies should also struggle as they need their frontcourt to play well offensively and the Sixers close well the paint. I see this game being a very low scoring contest, therefore I'll be taking the Under in here.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Charlotte Miami Under 202: Miami is coming off a HUGE game vs the Thunder, so how focused will they be on offense for this game vs the lowly Bobcats. Yes Miami can score a tone of points and the Bobcats give up a ton of points, having allowed 100+ points in each of their last 13 games, but will Charlotte score enough for this game to go Over? I don't think so. Charlotte's offense has come top life a little of late, but facing Golden State, the Lakers and Phoenix will make most offenses appear better than they are. Tonight they will be taking on a Miami defense that is starting to look like the group that allowed just 92 ppg last year. Miami comes in having allowed just 89 ppg in their last 5 games on a mere 40.1% shooting and should have little trouble keep a weak Charlotte offense in the low 90's here. Miami knows they can win this one easily and will do just enough on offense to win it, while their defense will continue to improve, holding the Bobcats to right around 90 points.
Portland/ Sacramento Under 199.5: I see a pattern here on my top plays. LOL Ive played a few Unders in Kings games and have been successful at it. Everyone thinks Kings and they think high scoring games, but that hasn't been the case this year, especially on the road where their games have averaged just 193.1 ppg. Most of that is due to the fact that this offense really struggles away from home, putting up just 91.3 ppg on a bad 40.8% shooting from the field. The Kings defense is 27th in the league in points allowed and they allow 101.4 ppg, but the Blazers are not an overly powerful offensive team as they average 97.2 ppg overall and 99.1 ppg at home. On defense Portland has more than enough stopping power to keep this sorry Kings offense under wraps. The Blazers have allowed 97.3 ppg at home on the year, but in their last 5 at home they have allowed 88.8 ppg. This game shouldn't put no more than 190 on the board.
Nelly
Minnesota - over Houston
Houston has won six of the last seven games including a blowout win at Chicago in primetime yesterday. This could be tricky spot on the road for a second straight night going against a Minnesota team that has been one of the best defensive teams and best rebounding teams in the league. Minnesota has lost three of the last four games but schedule has been tough with the last three games coming against Miami, Oklahoma City, and New York. In the last home game Minnesota beat Oklahoma City and the Wolves have not lost at home since the return of Ricky Rubio, actually winning each of the last five home games and going 8-3 at the Target Center for the season. Houston is only 4-7 on the road this season despite last night's convincing win and the Rockets are 2-4 ATS on the road against winning teams. The Rockets are an impressive offensive team but this is a tough situation after a big win and the Wolves look like a legitimate playoff threat. This is an interesting match-up for both coaches, facing off against teams they were involved with a for several years but the set-up is advantageous for the home team.
Harry Bondi
UTAH (-4) over Golden State
Despite their struggles on the road, the Jazz remain one of the NBA's toughest teams to beat at home. Jazz are 9-2 straight up and 8-3 ATS at home. They will be without point guard Mo Williams for tonight's match-up with Golden State but back-up point guard Jamal Tinsley is an adequate replacement and had 11 points and four assists in his first start in Williams place on Sunday. Golden State has been red hot but the line reflects that as the Warriors have been double digit dogs in 5 of their last six visits to Salk Lake. Lets play the line value and solid home team and back Utah over Golden State tonight.