Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, December 29,2010

Marc Lawrence

Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Detroit Pistons

Don't look now but the Pistons appear to be hitting on all cylinders lately while cashing in each of their last four contests. They return home to host the Celtics knowing they are 7-3 ATS as on this floor when not laying points this season. With Boston in off a road game at Indiana las night and just 1-4 ATS in its last five in games after playing the Pacers, look for the men from Motown to play a winning tune tonight.

Charlie Scott

East Carolina vs. Maryland
Play: East Carolina +7.5

As I stated when I was a guest on The Las Vegas SportsLine last Wednesday, A big factor in handicapping early bowl games is trying to find reasons for team motivation. In today's game I just can't see how Maryland players are motivated. Maryland went 8-4 s/u this Season, but yet the Coach who recruited most of the players Ralph Friedgen was fired by the Maryland administration after 10 Years of loyal service. These are College Kids 18-23 yrs old who generally worry about what parties they will attend during Christmas Break and what girls they will woo to bed. Now these kids are worried about what coach replaces Friedgen, and whether or not the player's skills match the new coaches system and will the new Coach clean house or play the players he recruited over Friedgen players. Keep in mind this is East Carolina's first Bowl for First yr Coach Ruffin McNeill as a Head Coach. Both teams defense's leave alot to be desired and East Carolina can score points on offense, I'll be Happy to start the afternoon off with a Winner and take EC + 7.5.

Rob Vinciletti

Creighton vs. Illinois State
Play: Illinois State -1

Illinois St has played under in all 9 lined games this season and 7 of those were here at home. Over the last few years they have played under 5 of 6 times as a short home favorite of 3 or less. Creighton has gone under in 6 of 9 after scoring 60 or less, 4 of 5 vs teams who allow less than 65 points per game and 6 of 8 after playing a non conference game. In the series here 5 of the last have played under. Look for another low scoring gam between two defense minded teams.

Tom Stryker

Utah @ L.A. Clippers
PICK: Utah -2.5

Off Monday's five-point home loss to Portland, Utah will make the trek to LA completely focused on the task at hand. The Jazz have dominated the Clippers to the tune of 37-9 SU and 28-18 ATS in the last 46 meetings and another win and cover is on the horizon.

Technically speaking, this is a monster spot for Utah. As a road favorite or road dog priced at +3 or less, the Jazz have been a solid investment posting a strong 24-8 SU and ATS mark provided they're rested and enter off a straight up home loss. Amazingly, if head coach Jerry Sloan's men failed to cover two games back in this situation, this team trend explodes to a perfect 9-0 SU and ATS. Please note: The Jazz won those nine battles by an average of 13.0 points per game.

Fading LA in its own backyard shouldn't be a problem for any investor. At home, the Clippers are a weak 41-73 SU and 46-67-1 ATS in their last 114 battles including a disturbing 17-37-1 ATS in this role matched up against a foe that checks in off a straight up loss. With those two parameters applied and Los Angeles facing a non-division foe, this team trend crashes to a horrendous 11-31-1 ATS!

In their last eight games coming off a straight up loss, the Jazz have danced to a perfect 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS record. After that tough home loss to the Blazers, Coach Sloan's troops will bounce back nicely here. Take Utah.

DAVID CHAN

Indiana @ Washington
PICK: Washington -1

The Indiana Pacers were an early surprise, but December has been a month to forget.

The Pacers are 4-9 this month and even worse against the spread at 2-9-2 ATS.

The problem for the Pacers isn't defense this season, but offense. The Pacers live and die with Danny Granger and lately he's been ice cold making just 31 percent of his shots from the field in the last four games.

Granger takes a lot of shots, too. He's hoisted up 83 during the past four games sinking just 26. Not helping matters either is Roy Hibbert, the Pacers' second-best scorer, has been in a scoring slump, too.

Indiana has failed to break the 94-point barrier in seven of its past eight games, including the last four. Point guard Darren Collison still isn't comfortable running Jim O'Brien's offense since coming from New Orleans.

Washington is the worst road team in the NBA. But the Wizards are a respectable .500 at home. Morale is up with the roster shuffled and prize rookie John Wall back healthy.

The Wizards nearly beat a hot Houston team at Toyota Center in their last game. The Wizards are playing better than Indiana now.

Jim Feist

Grizzlies vs. Kings
Play: Grizzlies -4

Two of the weaker defensive teams in the NBA meet. Memphis allows .459% shooting by opponents, 16th in the NBA, while the small Kings allow .472% shooting, 26th in the league. The uptempo Grizzlies should be able to score plenty, and they are on an 11-3 ATS run. The Kings are in a spiral both straight up and against the number, on a 2-7-1 ATS run. These teams have met once with Memphis winning easily, 100-91, and they will again. Play the Grizzlies.

SPORTS WAGERS

East Carolina +7½ over Maryland

Lots of interesting side notes to this game and of course it starts with the firing of Ralph Friedgen. This will be his last game coaching the Terps after 10 years with the program. The players have openly stated how they want to send Friedgen off with a win. He is loved by his players and vice versa. It’s also no secret that Maryland was hugely disappointed about getting selected for this game. They felt snubbed and they virtually had no interest in playing this game until they found out that their coach was fired. The question now is can they turn on that emotional switch? That might be a tall order after a hugely emotional week leading up to this game. Players feel awful for Friedgen and many of them have met with the coach individually. It’s been a month of whirlwind for the Terps and that takes it’s toll. East Carolina has no defense. The Pirates have no pass rush and they can’t stop anyone. They allowed at least 45 points in each of their last five games of the season. However, they’re dynamic on offense and there’s no doubt they can get off to a strong start and even take a quick 7-0 or 14-0 lead. The Terps offense is average at best with no running game whatsoever. Of course they have a great shot at ripping this defense to shreds but there’s the question of how focused will they be. There’s a good chance that the emotional strain of the past month will be too much for the Terps to overcome and that opens the door wide open for the Pirates. If the Terps play their hearts out for their departing coach, the Pirates still have a good chance to cover and thus, taking the points is the prudent move. Play: East Carolina +7½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Illinois +1.00 over Baylor

Certainly this will have the feel of home for the Bears, as the stadium will mostly be filled with Bears fans but that’s not going to deter us. Baylor comes in with a 7-5 record but they lost its final three games of the season and that’s never, ever a good thing coming into a Bowl game. Also note that the Bears were absolutely ripped apart by every good team they played this season. They lost to TCU 45-10, followed by losses to Texas Tech (45-38), Oklahoma St. (55-28), Texas A&M (42-30) and Oklahoma (53-24). Baylor beat a whole slew of cream puffs that include Sam Houston St., Buffalo, Rice, Colorado, Kansas and Texas. Kansas went 1-7 in the conference and Texas went 2-6. Baylor did score a ton of points but the Big-12 is not known for defense and almost every game is a track meet. The Illini come in with a 6-6 record and really had only one bad loss all year. That came against Minnesota 38-34 but that defeat came a week after they went into triple OT against Michigan. Illinois’ five other losses were to Missouri, Ohio St., Michigan St., Michigan and the final game of the year against Fresno St that was out of conference after they became Bowl eligible the week prior. We know that the Illini is the bigger team. They have a chance to absolutely dominate the line and run over the Bears and that has to be the game plan, as they don’t want to get into a track meet with them. The Illini are third in the nation in time of possession and that’s huge. They will physically wear down the Bears and likely pull away in the second half. Play: Illinois +1.00 (Risking 2 units).

Arizona +5 over Oklahoma St.

Most joints have this game at –4 but we found a +5 at SportsInteraction. If you don’t have an account with them, we still recommend playing the Wildcats at +4. Right off the bat we have a ranked team, the Cowboys, laying a small number against an unranked opponent and that means that you’re going to pay a premium to wager on the favorite. The Cowboys come in ranked #14 in the country after a 10-2 season. Thing is, they played two quality opponents all season long, Nebraska and Oklahoma, and lost them both. Yeah, they were close but the Cowboys allowed that pair to score a combined 98 points. That’s not to say they’re an overrated team but do we really know how good they are with zero signature wins? OSU has a wickedly good offense and they’re likely going to put up a lot of points here but so will the Wildcats. Arizona beat Iowa early in the year by a TD. They lost its last four games of the season but they lost in succession to Stanford, USC and Oregon before losing the final game of the year to Arizona St in double OT. That’s a tough stretch of games to be sure, yet the Wildcats still finished with a defense that ranked 34th overall in points allowed. Arizona actually had Oregon on the ropes, taking a 19-14 lead into the half before a disastrous and self destructive third quarter. These Wildcats can play and one should also take into consideration the fact that the Wildcats were embarrassed in last years Bowl game against Nebraska. They have something to prove this season so don’t be surprised to see them pull off the upset. They played a tougher schedule than the Cowboys and they have a much better defense. Play: Arizona +5 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Tom Freese

Miami Heat at Houston Rockets
Prediction: Miami Heat

Houston is 15-15 straight up this year. The Rockets are 4-12 ATS their last 16 games vs. a team with a team with a win percentage of over 60%. Houston is 2-10 ATS their last 12 games vs. NBA Southeast Division teams. The Rockets are 6-15 ATS on Wednesday. Miami is 24-9 straight up this year. The Heat are 11-4 ATS their last 15 games overall. Miami is 8-1 ATS their last 9 road games and they are 6-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Heat 20-7 ATS their last 27 games as road favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points. The Heat are 10-4 ATS off a straight up win.

Sam Martin

Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Bobcats
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats

No reason to back Cleveland while they are in this funk, as yesterday's 15-point drubbing at home against the Magic was the Cavs' 14th loss in their last 15 chances. And they have covered the spread only once on the road since the middle of November - that coming in an inspired effort against former teammate LeBron James and the Miami Heat. No letdowns or lookaheads in play for Charlotte here, so all the attention should be focused on getting an easy win against a team struggling to find their identity. Cavs gets blown out again!

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Northern Iowa -2.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are an impressive 43-21 ATS in their last 64 games overall. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 26-7 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Bears are just 13-27-1 ATS in their last 41 games as an underdog, 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or less and 16-36-2 ATS in their last 54 vs. the Missouri Valley. The Bears are 0-3 in true road games this season while the Panthers are 6-0 at home. Lay the points with the home team.

Sean Higgs

Illinois vs. Iowa
Play: Illinois -4

Talk about a rolling coaster.. Wiscy -7.5 somehow manages a cover up 1 with 20 seconds left.. Cincy rolling all game gets back doored by a point.. The icing on the cake was our MizzU 10* and the under.. Seemingly in control up 24-20 and getting ready to at least ice a solid cover, all hell breaks loose with a terrible INT that is returned for a TD crushing our hopes of a sweep and ultimately breaking our hearts. The proverbial nail in the coffin, getting a pass overturned. Not a fan of letting the officials dictate an ending to a game, either in a ATS win or loss for that matter.. We brush our shoulders off and will regroup with a pair of Best Bets going in Bowl Action today, plus my MVC Game of the Month.. I also have a CBB Small School Parlay up $ FREE PLAY today will be on ILLINOIS (CBB) to get it done over Iowa.. On a bit of losing streak, the Illini will be too much for this Iowa group.

Ray Monohan

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. NY Islanders
Play: Pittsburgh Penguins

Is there a hotter team in the NHL besides the Penguins? Last time out for Pittsburgh, they were a 6-3 winner as they battled the Thrashers at home. 25-11-2-0 record (12-5-1) on the road. PIT are 8-2 in their last 10 road games, 20-7 in their last 27 overall, NY Islanders 1-8 in their last 9 Wed. games, 15-48 in their last 63 vs. Atlantic div. teams, PIT are 16-5 in the last 21 meetings. How bout that point streak by Sid The Kid? Career-high 25-game streak. The Pens captain with last nights points tied Wayne Gretzky's 25-game run during the 1990-91 campaign, which represents the longest streak in the NHL in that time. Crosby is the face of the league and a stern test for any club, let alone the fledgling Islanders, who are currently in fourth in the Atlantic Division. New York lost its last outing, a 7-2 result against the Rangers on December 27. The Islanders are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh, and are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games at home. In the teams' lone meeting this season, Pittsburgh posted a 3-2 overtime victory over New York on Oct. 15. The Penguins have won five in a row and 16 of their last 21 against the Isls. The Penguins have won 16 of their last 19, and they can credit Crosby, and Marc-Andre Fleury (17-8-1) in the pipes for their success.

SEAN MURPHY

East Carolina @ Maryland
PICK: Maryland -7.5

East Carolina is Bowling for the fifth straight year, but the reality is, this Pirates team is only here thanks to their entertaining and explosive offense. They dropped four of their last five regular season games - truly a case of backing their way into a Bowl game.

This isn't the same Pirates team we've seen in recent years. Skip Holtz is no longer leading the troops, and I do believe that makes a difference this time of year, as he was an excellent motivator.

Most see it as a negative that this will be Ralph Friedgen's last game as head coach of the Terps. I actually feel that it gives them a motivational edge. He's given so much to this program over the years, and that's certainly not lost on his current players.

Maryland went an impressive 4-1 ATS in the favorite role during the regular season, scoring at least 42 points in four of those five games. They took care of business when they had to, winning four of their final six contests to get into this Bowl game. I don't think there's any concern over them wanting to be somewhere else.

This one should come down to which team can get a couple of stops in the second half, and I'll give the nod to the Terps as their defensive numbers are world's better than those of the Pirates - and they come out of a tougher conference. Maryland takes this one by 10+. Take Maryland.

BEN BURNS

New York Rangers @ New Jersey Devils
PICK: New Jersey Devils

The Devils figure to be extremely motivated here. In addition to being on an extended losing streak, they're still winless since the recent coaching change. Additionally, they're playing with "double-revenge," having dropped both of this season's previous meetings with New York.

This season's struggles notwithstanding, the Devils are still a solid 23-17 (+5.2) the last 40 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss. They're also still a lucrative 40-21 (+10.6) the last 61 times that they were off three or more consecutive losses.

The Devils will be "desperate" and I feel that they've got an excellent shot at scoring the "upset." Consider New Jersey