Hollywood Sports
Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Boston Celtics
While Boston (24-5) is a little banged-up and enter this game off a 95-83 win in Indiana last night, don't let that stop you from taking them over a lost Detroit team (10-21). The Celtics will be focused this week after their 86-78 loss to Orlando on Xmas. Boston leads the NBA in shooting (50.1%) and is 3rd in the league is defense (43.2%). They are 11-4 on the road while the Pistons are just 7-8 at home. The Celtics have covered 8 of their last 10 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The once vaunted defense in Detroit are days of the past as this team is 28th in the NBA by allowing their opponents to shoot 47.9% from the field. Unfortunately for coach Jon Kuester, this lapse in defense has not been the result of putting better shooters on the floor as the Pistons are converting just 44.8% of their shots (21st in the NBA). Detroit has failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. Boston will be too much for them. Lay the points with the Celtics.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Nuggets/Timberwolves OVER 219.5
Don't expect much defense to be played tonight as two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA go head to head. We saw these two teams combine for 228 points at Denver on Dec. 18, and I'm expecting them to be over the 220 mark again this evening. The fact that Denver just played last night helps our cause because fatigued legs tend to affect teams a lot more on the defensive end than the offensive end. With this in mind, the Denver defense should really struggle tonight. The Over is 6-1 in the Timberwolves' last 7 vs. the NBA Northwest and 5-1 in their last 6 vs. the Western Conference. The Over is also 23-9-1 in their last 33 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Expect a fast-paced shootout to result in the Over this evening.
Jack Jones
Cavs/Bobcats UNDER 200.5
Any time a total is listed above 200 points in a Bobcats game the UNDER is certainly worth a look. That's the case tonight as they host the Cleveland Cavaliers in a battle between two of the worst offensive teams in the league. Charlotte is scoring just 92.2 PPG this season and Cleveland is putting up 93.7 PPG. Given those offensive averages, there's no way odds makers can justify this total set tonight.
Cleveland has scored 99 or less points in 15 of their last 16 games overall. Charlotte has scored 97 or less points in 7 of their last 8 games and 92 or less in 10 of their last 12 contests. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in this series and the Cavs and Bobcats have combined to score 192 or less points in 6 of those 7 meetings. The UNDER is 6-0 in Bobcats last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 7-1 in Bobcats last 8 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
Black Widow
1* on Los Angeles Lakers -3
Coming off three straight blowout losses, the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers will certainly be putting their best foot forward tonight in New Orleans. We believe it will be enough to win by more than a 3 points in this one. After getting off to a fast start this year, the Hornets have come back down to reality by going 7-12 over their last 19 games. This has been a very one-sided series for years, as the Lakers have gone 25-11 in all meetings with New Orleans since 1996. Look for the Lakers to exploit their big advantage in the paint tonight with the likes of Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum. New Orleans does not have a single player that can guard any of these three. The Hornets are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. Take the Lakers and lay the points.
Joel Tyson
East Carolina vs. MARYLAND (-7) - at Washington, D.C.
Get the day started for free with Maryland minus the points over East Carolina in the Eagle Bank Military Bowl this afternoon from D.C.
For one thing, I expect the Terrapins to be well represented in the stands since their campus is nearby, for another I expect departing coach Ralph Friedgen to leave his alma mater a winner.
Maryland closed strong this year, rebounding from a 2-10 campaign as season ago to go 8-4 this year, and the Terps did cover 4 of the 5 times this season they were laying points.
The Turtle is also 4-2 against the spread in 6 previous bowl games under Friedgen.
East Carolina's defense is among the worst in the nation, and eventually will lead them to yet another loss.
The Pirates lost their last pair of games, and 4 of their last 5 both straight up and against the spread to close the season, and while they may trade points for a while in what I feel will be a high-scoring game, I do not see them being there the whole game.
Lay it with Maryland.
4♦ MARYLAND
Craig Davis
East Carolina vs. Maryland at Washington DC
Today's free play is on the East Carolina/Maryland game to go OVER the total.
As good as ECU's offense has been under QB Dominique Davis this year, their defense has been equally bad. I haven't seen them stop anyone of any quality. In fact, the best they did all year was allowing North Carolina State to score just 27 points, but in that game the Wolfpack had three interceptions and two lost fumbles... three times in ECU's territory. Sickening.
The Pirates have one of the best passing attacks in the country, averaging 319 yards per game with 37 touchdowns. Granted, they haven't played the same level of competition that Maryland has, but it's not like the Terps offer a ton of resistance defensively.
Dominique Davis finished the year with 36 TD passes and 3700 yards and was rarely stopped in any game he played this year. Oh sure, North Carolina and Virginia Tech slowed him down, but he just got better. He threw 18 TD passes and just four picks over the team's last five games... now that's impressive. Maryland might be better than some of those defenses, but they just don't have enough to stop Davis and the ECU offense all game.
But while the Pirates can boast about their offense, they should be absolutely ashamed of their defense... if you can call it that. This unit is the worst in the country, allowing 43 points and 479 yards per game, including 220 per game on the ground.
It gets worse... they allowed nearly 55 points per game over the last five contests. No, that's not a misprint... it's absolutely real, and terribly horrendous.
Maryland's young QB, Danny O’Brien, finished the season in style, completing 33 of 47 passes for 417 yards, tossing four TDs in a 38-31 win over NC State. On the season he finished with 21 TDs vs. just six interceptions and I have no doubts he'll carve up this ECU defense all day long.
Yes, I realize the total is a tad high, but that's to be expected when you have two good offenses like this going head to head. I don't think for a minute this is a trap... this number is just about right, but it's still going over today.
3♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
Arizona vs. Oklahoma St. (-5), at San Antonio
For my comp selection, I think reality set in late in the season for Arizona as the Wildcats lost their final four games, including a 30-29 loss to in-state rival Arizona State in the season-finale. Tonight will be their fifth in a row as Oklahoma State’s offense is too much for the Wildcats to handle. Lay the points with the Cowboys.
Oklahoma State puts up 45 points a game and 540.5 yards of offense, including 354.7 yards per game through the air. QB Brandon Weeden is having a star season for the Cowboys with 4,037 yards passing, 32 TDs and 13 INTs. This offense scored at least 33 points in all but one game and it will face the Arizona defense that looked very shaky during the final four games of the year, allowing 200 yards rushing in three of the four.
Arizona is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games after a straight-up loss, while Oklahoma State is on positive ATS streaks of 8-2 overall, 40-16-2 as a favorite and 24-6-2 as a favorite of up to 10 points.
Cowboys’ WR Justin Blackmon is a top-10 pick in the NFL draft and needs just eight yards to set an NCAA record for yards receiving by a sophomore.
Oklahoma State is still angry over its season-ending loss to the Sooners, falling 47-41 at home. They are out to prove that shouldn’t have happened and the defense is especially angry after limiting the opposition to 16 points or less in three of four games leading up to that Oklahoma game. I’ll lay the chalk in San Antonio tonight and play the Cowboys.
4♦ OKLAHOMA ST.
Chuck O'Brien
Golden State at ATLANTA
Yes, Atlanta has been held under triple digits in 13 of its last 14 games, including the last 10 in a row. And, yes, the under is 11-3 for the Hawks over this 14-game span, with five of six at home staying low. But there’s something about Golden State that gets Atlanta’s offense going (and that “something” is the fact the Warriors don’t play defense!).
Going back to the 2006-07 season, Atlanta has put up the following point totals against Golden State: 113, 115, 106, 117, 118, 115, 114, 104 and 127. That’s an average of 113.4 ppg!. Of course, the all-offense/no-defense Warriors have done their share of damage against Atlanta, scoring 105 points or more in nine of the last 10 meetings. No surprise, then, that the over has cashed in nine of the last 11 series battles, with five of the last six in Atlanta clearing the total.
And while the Hawks have been involved in a bunch of low-scoring games recently, the majority of those games have been against the offensively challenged Eastern Conference. In its last 13 games against the Western Conference, the Hawks have gone over the total 10 times (and the over is 6-2 in their last eight against Pacific Division opponents).
Golden State, which got shooting guard Steph Curry back in the lineup on Christmas Day, has hit 108 points or more in five of its last six games (topping the total in the last four in a row). The Warriors are on additional “over” streaks of 11-5-1 on Wednesday and 35-17 against Southeast Division foes.
Chuckster sees another Warriors-Hawks shootout, as the lowest combined point total in the last seven meetings was 211.
4♦ OVER
Stephen Nover
New Jersey at OKLAHOMA CITY (-9)
I cashed on my free Tuesday NBA selection with the underdog Knicks getting the cover against Miami. I have a Wednesday NBA comp selection taking the underdog Nets against Oklahoma City.
The Thunder are a frustrated group. I see them having problems focusing for this matchup after losing an important statement game on Monday when they fell to the Mavericks by 10 at home despite Dirk Nowitzki playing less than 12 minutes.
It was a bad loss for the Thunder as no one took control. The recovery time is too quick for the Thunder to cover a big number in this matchup against an aroused and improved Nets squad.
When the two teams met four weeks ago in New Jersey, the Thunder had to go three overtimes to nip the Nets, 123-120. So this is payback for New Jersey. The Thunder had trouble with Brook Lopez inside in that matchup. Expect another strong performance from Lopez this time around, too.
New Jersey is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games versus Western Conference foes.
1♦ NEW JERSEY
Chris Jordan
L.A. Lakers at NEW ORLEANS (+3)
The Spurs talked trash to the bully, who happen to be the struggling, two-time defending NBA champs, and then they beat the Lakers down. Not a good sign with their third-straight loss - all by way of ass whooping - and now they play the second of back-to-back nights in the Big Easy.
Staring down the barrel of their longest losing streak of the season, I'll buy into the philosophy the Lakers are in for a tough stretch. I won't buy into the B.S. I am hearing that this is the beginning of the end.
Sheesh, two months ago we were talking about how Miami might not make the playoffs because of dissension and how bad the off-season moves ended being. Now look at the Heat.
In the NBA, there are always tough stretches, and it causes frustration. Right now the Lakers are frustrated. There are four months left before the season comes to a close, so there is plenty of time for the Lakers to rebound.
But tonight they'll suffer another tough loss, as the Hornets should win this game with no problem.
I know the Hornets are 7-12 since their 11-1 start to the season, but they did start the season winning 11 of 12 and are capable of playing decent basketball. This is a good spot for them to win a big game at home, where they've won their last four to improve to 13-3.
Play the Hornets tonight.
3♦ NEW ORLEANS
Chris Jordan
Wake Forest at RICHMOND (-16)
Wake Forest has always dominated this series.
Guess this is as good a time as any for the Spiders to get back at the Demon Deacons for years of embarassment.
Wake Forest is struggling terribly right now, sitting at 6-6 on the year, including a humiliating 66-64 home setback to Presbyterian last Tuesday. The Deacons have been idle since, and that might not be so much of a good thing, as they'll come in cold against a red-hot Richmond team that is 10-3 on the young season, including being 5-0 at home.
From what I can tell, the Deacons are struggling terribly with their defensive effort, and that could pose problems against a team that ranks 18th in the nation with its field goal percentage.
Wake has also been beaten by Stetson and Winthrop, so a loss to Richmond is certainly not out of the question.
3♦ RICHMOND
Stephen Nover
George Mason (+1) at DAYTON
George Mason is riding a seven-game winning streak. I'll ride that momentum against Dayton of the Atlantic-10.
The Patriots are a tough Colonial Athletic Association team that is 3-0 versus Atlantic-10 competition defeating Charlotte, George Washington and Duquesne.
George Mason has a strong history against Atlantic 10 teams covering in 10 of its past 11 meetings against them.
Dayton could be missing a key player. Chris Johnson, the Flyers' second-leading scorer and rebounder, may be out after suffering a groin injury during practice this past Sunday.
The last time the Flyers met a Colonial Athletic Association team, they lost 74-71 to Old Dominion four games ago. The CAA is an underrated conference. Last season, six CAA teams earned postseason tournament berths.
George Mason is considered one of the top two teams in the CAA.
1♦ GEORGE MASON
Michael Cannon
St. John's (+9') at WEST VIRGINIA
Take the points with St. John’s on the road over West Virginia.
The Red Storm are a team on the rise. They won the Holiday Festival Tournament in Madison Square Garden by blowing out previously-unbeaten Northwestern by 16 in the championship game.
St. John’s is a veteran-laden team with nine seniors on the roster. The Red Storm play an up tempo style under coach Steve Lavin, so look for them to get out in transition for some easy buckets tonight.
West Virginia is a work in progress. Coach Bob Huggins is usually hard on his players, but I believe him when he says that this year’s group doesn’t have the same work ethic that last year’s did.
The three St. John’s losses this year have come by a combined nine points.
Take the points with St. John’s as it stays within the number on the road.
4♦ ST. JOHN'S
Derek Mancini
Bradley at INDIANA STATE (-4')
Bradley may have the name recognition, but they're in a tough spot tonight. With arguablly their biggest conference home game on deck (vs. Wichita St New Year's day), its going to take a lot of mental effort to focus for a road game against an underrated Indiana State team. Bradley's coming off back-to-back strong wins, and suspect there's ample room for letdown tonight.
Indiana State on the other hand, looks like they finally found their swagger following their blowout win over Depaul. Since then, they crushed cupcake Oakland City, only to fall short (but cover) vs Purdue in their last one. They showed some serious defensive chops in that game, limiting the Boilermakers to just 33% shooting and just as important, winning the rebounding battle (37 to 34).
Due to the early season injuries, this Bradley team just doesn't match up well. The Sycamores should have a decent edge in the paint with Richard and Walker. While Warren may be the best player on the court, which other Braves player is going to step up? So far no one has. Its the balance of Indiana State that gives them the edge here, as the Sycamores stingy D will focus on Warren and force Bradley to go somewhere else. Given the situational edge, the homecourt, and the match ups, Indiana State is the play here.
3♦ INDIANA STATE
Bobby Maxwell
Southern Illinois (pk) at DRAKE
For my comp selection, Southern Illinois opens the Missouri Valley Conference season tonight on the road at Drake and should be able to take care of the Bulldogs with their swarming defense. In this pick-em contest, I’ll play the Salukis.
Southern Illinois is giving up just 64.9 points per game this season and holding the opposition to 40.8 percent shooting. Drake has struggles this season, going just 4-6 in their last 10 games. But when these guys lose they get stomped, including an 82-39 loss to St. Johns and a 91-43 loss to Iowa State.
The Salukis have won three of their last four games, including a 61-49 win over Northern Illinois a week ago as an 11 ½-point favorite. They get after it on defense and the rotation goes 10 deep. Nobody on the team averages more than 25 minutes per game and the leading scorer is putting in just 10.6 points and six players average at least 6.6 points per contest. This is a team that gets after it on defense and keeps fresh players in the game.
Drake is on ATS slides of 2-5 in conference games, 1-5 after a straight-up win and 1-4 at home against teams with losing road records. The Bulldogs can go on long runs without scoring a basket and against this defense, that’ll likely happen a few times tonight.
I’m playing Southern Illinois to steal the win on the road tonight.
3♦ SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Chuck O'Brien
Illinois (-4') at IOWA
Now for another free-play winner, take Illinois as a road favorite at Iowa in the Big Ten opener for both teams.
Admittedly the Illini was less than profitable in the non-conference season, going 6-7 ATS. That includes four consecutive non-covers entering this contest after back-to-back losses to Illinois-Chicago (a stunning 57-54 neutral-site defeat as a 16½-point chalk) and Missouri (75-64 loss as a one-point underdog).
On the bright side, Illinois covered rolled to two double-digit wins (and covered) in both of its two true road games, including a 73-61 victory at Gonzaga as a 1½-point chalk on Dec. 4.
Iowa (7-5 overall, 5-2 at home) appears to be making strides after last year’s dismal campaign (10-22 overall; 4-14 in conference). However, the Hawkeyes still are a long way from competing with the Big Ten’s big boys (Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue and Minnesota). Iowa has yet to beat a quality opponent this season (losses to Iowa State, Wake Forest and Xavier, along with Long Beach State and South Dakota State; the only decent win was against Alabama which is awful this season).
Illinois swept the season series from the Hawkeyes last year (59-42 home win; 57-49 road win) and has won the last four in a row and six of the last seven in this rivalry (going 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in Iowa City). And along with their two blowout road wins this year, the Illini have cashed in 10 of their last 14 true road contests.
Chuckster calls for 10-point Illinois victory.
3♦ ILLINOIS
Michael Cannon
Washington State (+2') at UCLA
Take Washington State plus the small number tonight on the road over Ucla.
The Cougars have double revenge motive for two easy Bruin wins last year and they appear to be better equipped to handle their conference rival this time around.
Washington State has a talented backcourt duo of Faisal Aden and Klay Thompson, who combine to average 39 ppg.
The Cougs have already scored blowout wins over Gonzaga and Mississippi State this year, so you know the potential is there.
Ben Howland’s Bruins are in another tough transitional year and I expect the better talented team to come through here.
Take the points with Washington State on the road.
3♦ WASHINGTON STATE
Joel Tyson
Wofford vs. VCU - at Richmond, VA
On the college hardwood tonight, going to lay the wood with the Rams of VCU as they step down a tad in competition level for this Christmas Tournament in which they are the host school.
VCU has already played some stiff competition, tangling with the likes of Wake Forest, Tennessee, UCLA, and Richmond, and they have come out with a 7-4 straight up record.
Tonight presents the Rams with a chance to pad their record, as Wofford is just 5-6 straight up this year, and they have failed to cover in their last pair of lined games, and 4 of their last 7 on-line overall.
Rams to ram the Terriers tonight by double-digits.
3♦ VCU
Karl Garrett
Duke at UNC GREENSBORO (+35)
I don't care if UNC Greensboro has not won a game straight-up this year, this team has been competing very hard of late, covering three in a row against the likes of Richmond, Clemson, and Wake Forest, and this is just way too many points for the Blue Devils to comfortably get on top of.
Duke failed laying a similar price against Elon their last time out, and they have failed 3 of their last 5 games as the favorite overall.
No threat of the monumental outright upset that is for sure, but I do like UNC Greensboro to stay inside of this mansion-like number.
2♦ UNC GREENSBORO
Wunderdog
San Jose State vs. Fresno State
Play: San Jose State +2
The San Jose State Spartans have surprised as they are out of the gate at 8-3. One of the teams they have surprised on the season is Oregon out of the Pac-10. The Spartans went on the road and got an impressive win, but remain under the radar. They have one of the best offensive players in the country in Adrien Oliver who is averaging 25.8 points per game. Oliver went for 42 in his last game. Things haven't gone quite so well fro Fresno State who own just three wins vs. Div-1 opponents - none of them notable. San Jose has a couple go-to guys, and Fresno is very limited on offense, boasting just one player averaging over 10 points per game, and he shoots 36.5% from the floor. What is supposed to be a close game has all the closeout weapons on the visitors side, so I'm running with the upstart San Jose State.
Dave Price
1 Unit on UCLA Bruins -2.5
UCLA has rattled off 5 straight wins, and it is 7-1 at home this season. I expect the Bruins to earn a 6th straight victory this evening against a Washington State team they have owned. The Bruins have won 25 of their last 27 against the Cougars. They have won each of the last 3 by no less than 11 points. The Cougars are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or less. Bet the Bruins.
Teddy Covers
New Mexico @ Texas Tech
PICK: New Mexico -2.5
New Mexico crushed Texas Tech 90-75 last year. There’s no reason to expect a dramatically different result this time around.
Steve Alford’s Lobos are very young, no question, even after the addition of highly touted UCLA transfer Drew Gordon into the rotation three games ago. But New Mexico has experience at the most important position to have it, with senior point guard Dairese Gary running the show. Gary leads the team in points and assists. Fellow upperclassmen Philip McDonald and AJ Hardeman give the Lobos enough of a veteran presence to support in hostile environments. After all, we’ve already seen New Mexico win SU at Southern Illinois and New Mexico State, as well as a strong win here in Vegas over Colorado last week.
Texas Tech, on the other hand, isn’t beating anyone but bottom feeders these days, with recent losses to South Florida, St Mary’s, TCU, UTEP and Washington over the past month. Their wins: Texas-Arlington, Oral Roberts, Liberty, Stephen F Austin, Louisiana-Monroe and Georgia Southern – aren’t exactly ‘step up in class’ type victories. The betting markets have routinely overvalued the Red Raiders in early season play – Pat Knight’s squad is on an 0-6 ATS run in their last six lined contests, a trend that should continue tonight. 2* Take New Mexico