SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
HUMANITARIAN BOWL
(at Boise, Idaho)
Bowling Green (7-5 SU and ATS) vs. Idaho (7-5 SU and ATS)
Two teams headed in opposite directions square off at Bronco Stadium when Bowling Green takes on an Idaho squad making only its second-ever postseason appearance.
The Falcons rattled off four consecutive wins (SU and ATS) to close the season in third place in the Mid-American Conference’s East Division, with the offense leading the way by scoring 30 points or more in each of the final four contests. In its finale, Bowling Green topped Toledo 38-24 as a 7½-point underdog, with RB Willie Geter leading the charge with 114 yards rushing and three TDs.
The Vandals ended the regular season by losing three straight (SU and ATS) and four of their last five (0-5 ATS), getting edged in a shootout by Utah State in the finale 52-49, failing as a three-point home favorite. Idaho placed fourth in the Western Athletic Conference after starting the season 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS.
Bowling Green, which missed the postseason last year, is playing in its fourth bowl game in the last seven years. The Falcons’ last bowl appearance was a disaster, as they got destroyed by Tulsa 63-7 in the 2008 GMAC Bowl, never threatening to cover as a 5½-point underdog in what was the biggest blowout in bowl history. That loss snapped Bowling Green’s four-game postseason winning streak. Idaho’s only bowl appearance came in 1998 when the Vandals edged Southern Mississippi 42-35, winning outright as 17½-point underdogs.
This is the first-ever meeting between these schools.
Falcons QB Tyler Sheehan, who threw a pair of TD passes in the regular-season finale against Toledo, finished the regular season completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 3,664 yards with 23 TDs and just six INTs. His top target is electrifying WR Freddie Barnes, who led the nation with 138 catches for 1,548 yards, and with five receptions today he’ll set the NCAA record for catches in a season. Bowling Green averages 27.3 points and 393.8 total yards per game, but only 83.6 rushing ypg. Defensively, the Falcons give up 26.2 points and 396 yards per outing, including a whopping 155.8 rushing ypg.
Idaho’s offense is averaging 31.8 points per contest (25th in the nation) and 450.9 total yards per game (10th) with a balanced offense that nets more than 290 ypg through the air and more than 160 ypg on the ground. QB Nathan Enderle is ranked seventh in the nation with a 122.75 QB rating and he passed for 2,666 yards with 18 touchdown throws against nine INTs. Like the Falcons, though, the Vandals struggle defensively, yielding 35.5 points and 424.8 total yards per game (268.9 passing; 155.8 rushing).
The Falcons soar into this one on ATS runs of 4-0 overall, 4-0 as a favorite, 5-1 after a straight-up win and 6-2 when playing on turf. Idaho is on ATS slides of 0-5 overall, 6-21 after a straight-up loss and 7-19 after a non-cover, but the Vandals have covered in four straight non-conference games and five of seven against winning teams.
Bowling Green has stayed under the posted total in four of six overall and five of its last six after a straight-up win, while Idaho is on “over” streaks of 8-4 on the season (7-2 last nine)l, 7-2 against winning teams, 5-1 as an underdog and 8-1 in non-conference action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOWLING GREEN
HOLIDAY BOWL
(at San Diego)
(20) Nebraska (9-4, 8-5 ATS) vs. (22) Arizona (8-4, 6-5 ATS)
The Cornhuskers, who just missed winning the Big 12 title and when Texas scored a last-second field goal, will try to make it six of seven wins to close the season when they battle Arizona at Qualcomm Stadium.
Nebraska, champs of the Big 12 North Division, was on the verge of earning itself a BCS bowl invitation and ending the Longhorns’ national title hopes until Texas kicked a 46-yard field goal as time expired to win the Big 12 championship game 13-12 on Dec. 5. The Huskers easily cashed as 14-point underdogs, snapping a 2-5 ATS slide. However, the SU defeat ended a five-game winning streak.
Arizona closed the season with consecutive road wins (1-1 ATS), beating rival Arizona State 20-17 on Nov. 28 (also on a last-second field goal), and then going to the Coliseum in Los Angeles and upsetting USC 21-17 as a seven-point underdog on Dec. 5. The Wildcats finished the regular season tied for second place is the Pac-10, even with Stanford and Oregon State.
The Huskers, winners of three of their last four postseason appearances, beat Clemson 26-21 in the Gator Bowl last Jan. 1, pulling off the upset as 2½-point underdogs. Arizona returned to the bowl season last year after a 10-year hiatus and beat BYU 31-21 as a three-point favorite, improving to 3-0 SU in its last three bowl outings.
Prior to last year’s Las Vegas Bowl, the Wildcats’ previous bowl appearance came in the 1998 Holiday Bowl against Nebraska, and Arizona scored a 23-20 upset win, cashing as three-point underdogs.
Everything Nebraska does revolves around a defense that is second in the nation in points allowed (just 11.2 per game) and ninth in total yards allowed (284.2 per game). The Huskers, who held nine opponents to 13 points or less and gave up more than 20 points just once, also finished second in the country with 42 quarterback sacks. Heisman Trophy finalist Ndamukong Suh led the charge with 12 sacks, including dropping Texas QB and fellow Heisman finalist Colt McCoy 4½ times in the Big 12 title game, while also adding 12 tackles in that contest, nine of which led to zero or negative yards.
While Nebraska’s defense was rock solid all year, the same can’t be said for an offense that netted just 317.2 total yards per game, including 176 passing ypg. Take away three blowout wins over Sun Belt Conference teams in which they scored 49, 38 and 55 points, the Huskers averaged just 17.7 ppg.
Arizona also gets strong play from its defense, ranking 21st in the Football Bowl Subdivision at 315.8 total ypg, and the unit allowed 17 points or less and two touchdowns or fewer in four of its last six games. Offensively, QB Nick Foles (66.1 percent, 2,453 yards, 19 TDs, 8 INTs) was the fourth-rated passer in the Pac-10, and the Wildcats got a combined 1,100 yards and nine TDs from RBs Nic Grigsby and Keola Antolin.
The Cornhuskers are on positive ATS runs of 5-0 in non-conference action, 5-2 in December, 5-2 after a spread-cover and 8-3 against teams with winning records. Arizona is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine non-conference contests and 16-33 ATS in its last 49 games after a spread-cover, but the Wildcats cashed in six of their last nine overall and are on additional ATS surges of 4-1 against winning teams and 4-0 in December.
Led by its stout defense and inconsistent offense, Nebraska is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 11-3 overall, 4-1 in non-conference action, 5-1 in bowl action, 4-0 in neutral site games and 4-1 in December. Arizona has stayed below the posted total in five of six overall, five straight in December and four straight after a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
UConn (9-2, 2-7 ATS) at Cincinnati (8-3, 3-4 ATS)
UConn and Cincinnati open the Big East campaign at the Fifth Third Arena, where the Huskies will try to extend a three-game winning streak in their first true road game of the season.
UConn blasted Iona 93-74 on Sunday, cashing as a 14½-point favorite as they topped their previous high point total of 92. The Huskies have scored more than 70 points in eight of 11 games, but they’ve played just three teams from power conferences. In those three contests – all played at Madison Square Garden – they lost to Duke (68-59 as a 3½-point ‘dog) and Kentucky (64-61 as a one-point favorite), while crushing LSU (81-55 as a six-point chalk).
The Bearcats have followed consecutive road losses at Xavier (83-79 in overtime as a 3½-point underdog) and UAB (64-47 as a two-point chalk) with two blowout home wins over non-lined foes Lipscomb (80-52) and Winthrop (74-57 in their most recent contest on Dec. 22). Cincinnati is unbeaten through six home games – averaging 78.7 points per game and allowing 59.2 ppg – but only two came against lined competition (1-1 ATS). The ‘Cats’ only game against a ranked team came on Nov. 24 in the Maui Invitational, and they drubbed then-No. 21 (and now unranked) Maryland 67-58 as a 3½-point underdog.
UConn has won all four meetings in this rivalry since Cincinnati joined the Big East in 2006, going 3-1 ATS. Last year, the Huskies went to Fifth Third Arena and prevailed 81-72, barely cashing as an 8½-point road chalk. They also won 84-83 at Cincinnati in 2008, but the Bearcats covered as a 4½-point home ‘dog.
The Huskies have cashed in four of their last five Wednesday contests, but they’re otherwise in pointspread ruts of 2-8 overall, 1-6 in the Big East, 1-4 against winning teams and 2-6 after a SU victory. The Bearcats are also looking to shake several pointspread slumps, including 0-4 overall in lined action, 0-4 in conference play and 2-5 against winning teams, but like UConn, Cincinnati has excelled on Wednesday (19-7-2 ATS last 28).
The under is on runs of 7-1 for UConn on the road, 4-1 for UConn on Wednesday, 7-1 for Cincinnati overall, 5-0 for Cincinnati at home and 3-1-1 for Cincinnati on Wednesday. Conversely, the last three head-to-head meetings between these schools have easily hurdled the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(25) Northwestern (10-1, 6-2 ATS) at Illinois (8-4, 4-7 ATS)
Back in the Top 25 for the first time since 1969, Northwestern is set to open Big Ten play with just its second true road contest of the season as it visits Assembly Hall looking to end a 10-game losing skid to the Illini.
The Wildcats have earned some rare national attention by ripping off nine consecutive victories and five straight spread-covers in lined games. Most recently, Northwestern followed up a 70-62 home win over Stanford (covering as a six-point home favorite) with a 74-54 non-lined home win over Central Connecticut State on Dec. 22. The Wildcats’ only setback was a 67-54 home loss to then-No. 11 Butler as a 4½-point home ‘dog on Nov. 18, and their only road outing came on Dec. 1, when they pounded North Carolina State 65-53 as a six-point underdog in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
Northwestern hasn’t started 11-1 since 1982-83, and hasn’t had a double-digit winning streak since the 1930-31 squad started out 12-0 en route to the Big Ten championship.
Illinois has followed up a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) with consecutive losses at Georgia (70-67 as an 8½-point favorite) and to Missouri (81-68 in St. Louis as a two-point underdog). The Illini – who started the season in the Top 25 – have faced just one ranked foe, and that was at No. 18 Clemson in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge on Dec. 2. In that game, Illinois staged a huge second-half rally to win 76-74 as a six-point underdog. Bruce Weber’s squad is 7-0 at Assembly Hall (3-3 ATS), winning by an average of 22.7 ppg (85.6-62.9).
The Wildcats haven’t defeated Illinois since Jan. 14, 2004, losing the last 10 meetings in a row (5-5 ATS) and 25 of the last 27 clashes dating to 1995. In last year’s lone meeting, Northwestern hosted Illinois and had a 14-point lead with less than 5½ minutes to play, but crumbled from there and fell 60-59, though they did cash as a two-point home ‘dog.
Northwestern has played outstanding defense all year, holding all 11 opponents to 67 points or fewer, with eight teams scoring 62 or less and five failing to top 55 points. Conversely, the Illini have surrendered 70 points or more in five of their last seven games, yielding an average of 70.7 ppg during this stretch.
In addition to its current 5-0 ATS run, Northwestern is on pointspread surges of 6-2 on the road, 5-0 against winning teams and 4-0 versus winning teams. The Illini are 29-14-2 ATS in their last 45 Wednesday outings, but they’re in ATS slumps of 4-9 overall and 2-5 against teams with a winning record.
Northwestern is on “over” surges of 12-5 in Big Ten play and 8-1 on Wednesday, while Illinois carries “over” trends of 13-3 overall, 6-0 at home, 4-0 after a SU loss and 5-0 after an ATS setback. However, Illinois has stayed low in 12 of its last 17 conference games, the Wildcats have stayed low in six straight against winning teams, and the under has hit in seven straight meetings overall in this rivalry and four straight at Assembly Hall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTHWESTERN
NBA
Atlanta (21-9 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (25-8, 18-15 ATS)
Two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference square off for the second straight night, with the scene shifting from Philips Arena in Atlanta to Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland.
The Hawks’ explosive offense – which had produced 110 points or more in six of the previous nine games – was quieted big-time last night, as they fell 95-84 as a 2½-point home favorite, just their third home loss of the season. Tonight, Atlanta is playing its fifth road game in its last six contests, and it split the last four SU and ATS. For the season, the Hawks are 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS on the highway.
Cleveland is now riding a five-game SU and ATS winning streak, with those victories coming by margins of 18, 13, 15, 25 and 9 points. The Cavaliers have also won 10 of their last 11 and 14 of their last 17, and they’ve matched their season high with five straight spread-covers (which comes on the heels of a 2-6 ATS slump). Also, Cleveland has won 10 straight home games and is 12-2 SU at Quicken Loans Arena, but just 5-9 ATS. One of those spread-covers came in Sunday’s 108-83 rout of Houston as an 8½-point home chalk.
Cleveland swept the Hawks out of last year’s Eastern Conference playoffs, going 3-0-1 ATS, and the Cavs have now won seven in a row and nine of the last 10 in this rivalry, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home. The host is 5-3-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head matchups, and the favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five.
Atlanta’s 21-9 ATS mark on the season is buoyed by additional pointspread runs of 4-2 against the Eastern Conference, 15-8-1 against the Central Division, 8-1 on Wednesday, 7-4-1 against opponents with a winning record, 4-1-1 as an underdog and 19-7-1 as a pup of five to 10½ points. Cleveland is on ATS tears of 5-0 overall, 4-1 on Wednesday and 5-1 against winning teams.
Atlanta carries “over” trends of 18-12 this season, 6-2 versus the Eastern Conference, 4-2 against the Central Division and 19-7 on Wednesday, but the under is 7-3 in its last 10 roadies and 11-3 in its last 14 as an underdog. For Cleveland, the under is on runs of 5-1 at home, 6-1 in Eastern Conference games and 40-16 after an ATS triumph, but the over is 5-2 in the Cavs’ last seven on Wednesday. Finally, though last night’s game stayed way under the total, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Boston (23-7, 13-17 ATS) at Phoenix (20-12, 18-14 ATS)
The Celtics, who wrap up a four-game road trip tonight, look to avoid their first three-game losing skid when their make their only visit of the season to US Airways Center for a battle with the Suns.
Boston upset Orlando 86-77 on Christmas Day, cashing as a 5½-point underdog as it won for the 14th time in its previous 15 games. However, the Celtics then traveled west and got dumped by the Clippers on Sunday (92-90 as an 8½-point road chalk) and Golden State on Monday (103-99 as a 5½-point favorite). Since All-Star Paul Pierce went down with an injury, Boston has averaged just 91.7 ppg after topping the century mark 10 times in its previous 14 games. Pierce will be sidelined for at least two weeks.
Phoenix throttled the defending-champion Lakers 118-103 as a one-point home underdog on Monday, but it is still only 6-9 SU in its last 15 games (7-8 ATS). The Suns’ offense is humming again, putting up 113, 124, 127 and 118 points in its last four games. Phoenix is 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS at home this year, averaging a whopping 115.4 ppg while shooting a blistering 51.2 percent from the field. However, it is facing a Boston team that gives up just 90.7 ppg (43.7 percent) on the road.
These teams split their season series last year, with the visitor pulling off the outright upset both times, including Boston’s 128-108 rout as a two-point underdog. Prior to last season, the host had won four in a row (3-1 ATS) in this rivalry, yet the visitor is still 10-3 ATS in the last 13 clashes, with the Celtics cashing in five of their last six trips to the desert. Also, the SU winner has cashed in 13 of the last 15 meetings, including the past five in a row.
The underdog has cashed in each of Boston’s last four games and eight of the last 10, with the Celtics going 3-7 ATS during this span. In fact, since starting out 4-1 ATS, Doc Rivers’ squad has failed to cash in 16 of its last 25 games (6-8 ATS on the road). Additionally, Boston is in pointspread slumps of 0-6 against the Pacific Division and 1-6 after a SU loss, but it has covered in four straight against winning teams and is 38-15-1 ATS in its last 54 as an underdog, 48-19-1 ATS in its last 68 as a road pup and 5-0-1 ATS in its last six as a ‘dog of less than five points (all on the road).
The Suns are on ATS runs of 5-2 at home, 20-9-1 a homefavorite, 4-1 when laying less than five points at home, 5-2 against the Atlantic Division, 5-2 versus winning teams and 11-5 when playing one day of rest. However, they’re just 1-5 ATS in their last six after a SU victory and 0-4 ATS in their last four following a double-digit win.
Boston is on “under” surges of 4-0 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 4-1 as an underdog and 5-1 against the Pacific Division, but the over is 14-5 in its last 19 after a SU defeat and 9-4 in its last 13 on Wednesday. Phoenix has followed a 13-3-2 “under” run by topping the total in four straight overall, and the over is 25-9 in its last 34 on Wednesday, but the under is 7-0-1 in its last eight against Eastern Conference opponents.
Finally, the over is on a 10-4-1 surge in this rivalry, but the total has alternated in the last five meetings in Phoenix, with last year’s clash in the desert clearing the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Bang The Book
Humanitarian Bowl Opening Odds: Bowling Green PK Total 68.5
Sometimes it is the lesser known bowl games that provide the most value and the Humanitarian Bowl is one of these games. Outside the home states not many people will get excited for this game because both college football teams are not household names.
A battle of two 7-5 teams is not something to get too excited about but these teams can play some football. Idaho has a fantastic offense and they get the luck of playing pretty much a home game as they just play down the road.
Bowling Green head coach Dave Clawson has worked miracles in his first year at the helm. This team started off 1-4 on the season and then rallied down 12 points against Kent St and since then has looked great in going 7-5 and getting a bowl bid. This team had every reason to collapse but instead did the opposite and prospered. They play clean football and do very well at avoiding penalties and controlling the time of possession.
Idaho has had flashes of brilliance but they struggle on defense and average giving up 35 points a game. On the road that number jumps to 39 points a game and in the last 3 games that ballooned to 48 points per game.
They also have trends to match up with that weak performance. The Vandals are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up loss and 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. The Falcons are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games on turf. During bowl season I have learned to go with the hot hand and the better defense.
Humanitarian Bowl Pick: Bowling Green -1.5
Holiday Bowl Opening Odds: Arizona PK Total 41
The holiday bowl should be a joy to watch as the upstart Arizona Wildcats will take the field against the Nebraska cornhuskers.
For Arizona Stoops has lead them to a very good year and if not for a close loss to the Ducks they would have been BCS bowl bound as winners of the Pac-10. They rebounded quite nicely after that loss and managed to upset USC on the road and get an invite to the holiday bowl.
Nebraska enters this game off a narrow defeat in the Big 12 Championship. They played toe to toe with the #2 ranked team in the country and have the best defense player in the country. The problem is the offense has problems getting started and often will cost this teams victories like they did in the Big 12 Championship.
Both teams have stellar defenses and will have a fan base that will travel to see this bowl game. This game will be a close one with both defenses playing great all season and Suh patrolling the front line for the Huskers. The offense of the cats will be the difference.
The Cornhuskers are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game. The Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass and they are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The cats win this on a late score and cover the little number.
Holiday Bowl Pick: Wildcats -1.5
GOLD SHEET
Nebraska 22 - Arizona 16—This is a rematch of the 1998 Holiday Bowl, won 23-20 by Dick Tomey and Arizona over Frank Solich’s first Nebraska team.The 2009 versions of the Wildcats and Cornhuskers have played 2009 with eerily similar results. Both teams have lost four games, three of the defeats in unusual fashion. Nebraska did everything but beat host Virginia Tech, losing 16- 15 in the waning minutes due to a blown deep coverage and a “miracle” scrambling TD pass by QB Tyrod Taylor. NU lost 9-7 to Iowa State on eight Cornhusker giveaways. And Nebraska lost 13-12 to Texas in the Big XII title game in a way that will not soon be forgotten in Lincoln.Arizona’s four losses included a 36-33 defeat at Washington on an apparent incomplete pass kicked into the air for the winning UW interception TD! Then at Cal, while already in FG range, a Wildcat pass was batted back to QB Nick Foles, who threw it again (illegal forward pass), penalizing the Wildcats out of FG range. Then, a 44-41 loss vs. Oregon in double OT after the Ducks tied the game with :06 left in regulation. The top RBs for both teams—Roy Helu for NU & Nic Grigsby for U of A— battled painful shoulder injuries and missed time. Both teams had first-year starting QBs who were benched. Nebraska jr. Zac Lee (59%, 13 TDs, 10 ints.) regained his spot. Arizona’s Matt Scott gave up his starting job to 6-5 soph passer Nick Foles (66%, 19 TDs, 8 ints.). And both teams boosted their ground games as the season progressed, the Wildcats turning to QB Scott as valuable runner (305 YR, 7.6 ypc), and the Huskers turning to former HC and current AD Tom Osborne for hints on deception & misdirection. DE Ricky Elmore had 101⁄2 sacks and DT Earl Mitchell 61⁄2 for U of A. A-A DT Ndamukong Suh had 12 sacks and DT Jared Crick 91⁄2 for NU. PK Alex Henery hit 20 of 24 FGs for the Huskers; PK Alex Zendejas 17 of 22 for the Cats. Arizona coach Mike Stoops will get a report on Nebraska from brother Bob at Oklahoma. But Mike probably won’t like what he hears. As the nation witnessed vs. Texas, Bo Pelini has developed one of the best spread-attack defenses in the nation—pressuring mightily with the much-decorated, unstoppable Suh and the front four, employing sticky man coverage on the WRs. No surprise that Suh & Co. were 10-3 “under” TY.
(DNP...SR: Arizona 1-0-1)
IDAHO 43 - Bowling Green 38—Ah, where else but in bowl season can we be treated to a matchup between Bowling Green and Idaho, playing on a blue field in a game sponsored by a truck stop? Not to mention providing a litmus test for college football fans, whose loyalty to ESPN and its Bowl Week will be severely tested by this Wednesday afternoon kickoff between WAC and MAC also-rans. Those who do tune in might watch a pretty good show, however, as prospects for this one have us considering gridiron analogies to the George Foreman-Ron Lyle heavyweight slug-out in 1976. In other words, don’t expect much defense. Idaho wasn’t stopping the wind down the stretch, yielding a staggering 50 ppg its last five games, and its prospects of coping with the Falcons’ record-threatening WR Freddie Barnes (138 catches TY; needs just five to break NCAA season mark) are a bit frightening, especially since first-year BGSU HC Dave Clawson has promised to “make sure Freddie would get his touches.” Duly warned, expect the Vandals to counter with their best defense, which happens to be their offense, better balanced than the Falcs’ version and capable of playing some real smashmouth with a stable of RBs led by slamming Washington State sr. transfer DeMaundray Woolridge and darting soph Princeton McCarthy, both gaining a healthy 5.7 ypc while rambling behind an OL that starts 4 srs., including 340-lb G Mike Iupati, a likely NFL first-round pick. That’s bad news for a Falcon “D” that was hardly robust vs. the run (ranking 103rd). And though BGSU is familiar with this venue (played here LY), the regional advantage in Boise should be worth something to Idaho. (DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
Technical Report
BOWLING GREEN vs. IDAHO (Roady’s Humanitarian, December 30)...Ugh! First Idaho bowl since this game in ‘98 when it upset Southern Miss. Akey faded at end TY when dropping last 5 vs. number, but Vandals had covered first 7 TY and 10 of previous 11. Idaho covered all 4 vs. non-WAC foes TY. Akey also 9-4 last 13 as dog. Falcs won and covered their last 4 TY and have played on this field before, losing but covering LY vs. Boise, 20-7. Falcs also 11-2 vs. line away from home since LY (2-2 as road chalk TY). Note MAC 0- 5 vs. line in bowls LY. Tech edge-slight to Idaho, based on team trends.
NEBRASKA vs. ARIZONA (Holiday, December 30)...Huskers “under” 10- 3 TY, Arizona “under” 5 of last 6 in ‘09. Cats only dropped 1 of last 7 vs. number TY (5-1-1), and Stoops 18-9-1 vs. number since late ‘07. Very short price, but Bo Pelini was 3-0 as dog TY. Tech edge-“Under” and slight to Arizona, based on “totals” and team trends.
PLAYBOOK
5* BEST BET
Nebraska over Arizona by 14
Annual spectators of the Holiday Bowl should witness something they haven’t seen in quite some time – defense. The last three NCAA postseason games in sunny San Diego have produced an average score of 46-26, but that won’t be the case this evening in Qualcomm Stadium as a pair of defensive juggernauts clash. The Nebraska Cornhuskers arrive with the nation’s 9th-ranked defense in terms of total yards and have been the stingiest squad in the country in points against, allowing a meager 11 PPG. The Wildcats also merit high praise on the defensive side of the ball, entering with the 21st- rated stop unit in the land while allowing a very respectable 23 PPG out of the wide-open Pac-10 conference. These two squads meet with completely different mindsets. The last time we saw Nebraska was in the Big 12 championship game where they were within a second of the title and a trip to a BCS bowl while the Wildcats were springing an upset at USC. You could make an argument that the Huskers might show up a little flat but we think 2nd-year HC Bo Pelini has this program heading back to prominence and will have his troops gnawing at the bit. Our database agrees, noting that bowlers off a loss who allow 14 or less PPG are 21-7-1 ATS versus an opponent with at least one loss on the season that is off a win. Our ‘DB’ also reminds us that Nebraska is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS off a loss against Pac-10 opposition and a healthy 8-2 ATS as bowlers versus a foe off a SU and ATS win. Kudos to Arizona’s Mike Stoops for his 2nd straight 8-win season and first ever victory against USC but that win over the Trojans may prove costly for the 6th-year head coach: teams who beat USC in the final game of the season are a winless 0-5 ATS in bowls games since 1994. Stoops certainly has the Wildcats on the rise but we’re not fond of his 8-21 SU record versus opponents with a win percentage greater than .666. We’re also weary of Pac-10 bowlers and their 3-15 ATS mark as favorites versus an opponent off a loss or win of 3 or less points. Once again, we think the wrong team is favored in this next to last day of the decade but you won’t hear us stirring. We’ll gladly raise the ‘Holiday’ cheer and grab the point(s) as Holiday Bowl dogs are a solid 8-3 ATS over the last 11 years. Again.
Idaho over Bowling Green by 3
The Spuds are making just their 2nd bowl appearance ever and their first
since 1998 when they beat Southern Miss in this same Humanitarian Bowl. Hey, at least they can boast of an unblemished bowl record! And if the latest MAC Bowl results are any indication, then the Vandals should keep that unbeaten streak intact. The Bee Gees head to Boise looking to halt a 0-7 SU and ATS conference bowl run (pending the results of the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl and the EagleBank Bowl). To the naked eye, current form looks to favor the Falcons as they enter on a 4-0 SU and ATS run while Idaho has dropped their last three on the SU scoreboard and their last five on the ATS scorecard. However, bowlers off three consecutive SU losses exact are 16-8 ATS. This tightens to a perfect 6-0 ATS if they have dropped those last three to the spread, as well, and are taking on a foe off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. To make matters worse for Bowling Green’s 1st-year HC Dave Clawson is the fact that bowlers who arrive on a 3-0 SU and ATS streak are just 10-25 SU and ATS versus an opponent off a SU and ATS loss. And let’s not forget about 1st-year head coaches and their novice 27-41-1 ATS mark in bowl games. The Falcons and their sieve-like rush defense have also not taken flight against winning lined opposition, posting a pathetic 1-13 SU and 5-9 ATS record (including 0-5 ATS as favorites or dogs of six or less points). The MAC will have four other chances to stop their current bowl woes but we have a feeling they’ll be singing the same old tune this afternoon in Bronco Stadium after the Bee Gees fall to 1-4 ATS all-time in bowl appearances. Grab the Vandals in this false favorite special.
Nelly Greensheet
Bowling Green (-2) Idaho (68)
It was a breakthrough season for Idaho with the first bowl appearance since 1998 for the
Vandals. That year Idaho played in this same bowl game and unlike most teams the Vandals
are thrilled to stay in its home state playing in Boise. That year Idaho won 42-35 as a 17-point
underdog against Southern Mississippi. Bowling Green looked like a rebuilding team but the
Falcons won six of the final seven games to find the postseason. Both teams only defeated
one bowl team all season but Idaho’s win was an impressive win on the road against Northern
Illinois of the MAC. Both teams feature impressive passing attacks with Bowling Green nearly
exclusively putting the ball in the air. QB Tyler Sheehan is capable of posting big numbers but
the Falcons can be a bit too aggressive through the air at times. Idaho was without QB Nathan
Enderle in a few of the losses and he should be at full health for this game. Enderle is an
excellent QB that is likely the difference-maker in this game. The Idaho defense has poor
numbers but if you take away losses against Boise State and Nevada the numbers are much
more respectable. Idaho actually out-gained undefeated Boise State so the Vandals should
not be underestimated, particularly in a favorable venue. The only quality win for Bowling
Green came surprising Troy to open the season and Idaho has a quality veteran offensive line
that should make moving the ball much more effective for the Vandals through the air or on
the ground. Look for Idaho to be an underdog with a rushing edge, playing a de facto home
game with some buzz for the first bowl appearance in over a decade. Bowling Green’s last
bowl appearance was a 63-7 loss and although Coach Clawson did a great job in his first year
this looks like a tough position to get a great performance from a team that got here through a
very favorable conference schedule in a weak MAC East. IDAHO BY 10
RATING 4: Idaho (+2) over Bowling Green
Arizona (-1½) Nebraska (40)
No team gained more attention championship weekend than Nebraska despite the Huskers
losing the game and featuring a pathetic offensive performance. With a BCS spot on the line
Nebraska posted a grand total of 106 yards of offense. Nebraska’s defense is outstanding but
Arizona brings an excellent offensive resume, averaging nearly 30 points per game through a
very tough schedule. Arizona lost four games but none by more than ten points and although
Nebraska was able to slow down the Texas pass offense, the worst game of the season came
against the Texas Tech air attack. Nebraska is a tough team to run against but the Huskers
struggled against the pass in several games despite finding ways to win, notably against
Oklahoma and Colorado, games they probably deserved to lose. Arizona appeared to be
lining up for a Rose Bowl spot before Oregon made a miraculous comeback to spoil those
plans. Even after a very disheartening loss like that Arizona rebounded to win the final two
games on the road at Arizona State and at USC, showing a lot about this team. While
Nebraska’s defense will get a lot more attention, Arizona allowed just 316 yards per game on
the year while facing a much tougher slate of offensive opponents. Nebraska will likely keep
the ball on the ground and run a conservative offense but Arizona is one of the best teams in
the Pac-10 against the run, averaging only 112 yards per game. Nebraska will have no
chance to keep up if Arizona can turn this game into a shootout. Arizona sophomore QB Nick
Foles made a name for himself with several big games and he can carry the team. Last year
was the breakthrough bowl appearance for Arizona in the Stoops era and the Wildcats played
well to beat a highly regarded BYU team. Bo Pelini led the Huskers to a bowl win last season
but Nebraska is a team that was very fortunate to win in several games and actually was outgained
in five of the final six games of the year, despite only one loss in that stretch. Arizona
faced eight teams that are playing in bowl games enduring one of the toughest schedules in
the nation and this is a program ready to make a national statement. ARIZONA BY 10
RATING 3: Arizona (-1½) over Nebraska
BIG AL
Arizona Wildcats at Nebraska
Prediction: Arizona Wildcats
This game opened up at Pk'em, but the money has flowed on the Cornhuskers, and Nebraska is now a solid favorite. The 'Huskers have an other-worldly defense, ranking 2nd in the Football Bowl Subdivision in points allowed (11.2), and 9th in total defense (284 ypg). In its final game of the season -- the Big 12 Championship Game vs. Texas -- Nebraska held the high-octane Longhorn attack to a mere 202 total yards (even though the Longhorns had been averaging over 450 yards per game, and 43 ppg). Nebraska, of course, is led by Ndamukong Suh, who finished 4th in the Heisman voting. Suh led Nebraska with 82 tackles and 12 sacks, and will certainly draw a double-team from Arizona today. But I think Arizona is up to the task. The Wildcats were strong all season in QB protection, and allowed less than 1 sack per game (10th best in College Football). And Arizona is a much more balanced team than the 'Huskers. Like Nebraska, Arizona plays strong defense (315 ypg, ranking 21st in the country), but unlike Nebraska, Arizona has a very good offense to match. The Wildcats averaged 29.7 ppg (against opponents that gave up, on average, 24.7 ppg), so Arizona was 5 points better than average. In contrast, Nebraska's offense posted just 24.5 ppg (against foes that gave up 23.7), so the Huskers' offense was less than a point better than average. Nebraska covered just three of its last eight games, while Arizona ended its season on a 5-2 ATS run, and upset USC 21-17 on the road in the season finale. I like Arizona plus the points.
Charlie Scott
Nebraska vs. Arizona U
Play: Arizona U +3
The public has bet Nebraska up to -3, I feel that the public perception of Nebraska is dead wrong. The general public analyze teams and judges teams on what they saw last. In Nebraska's last game, Nebraska played a great game vs Texas in the Big 12 Championship and left it all out on the field in a heartbreaking, controversial last second loss. I expect Nebraska to suffer a hangover the size of Texas and lack motivation to get up for the Holiday Bowl. During the regular season Nebraska loss to Texas Tech 10-31 and Iowa st 7-9. Arizona runs a similar offense to Texas Tech ! Arizona's defense and running game on offense is underrated because USC and Oregon get most of the national attention from the Pac 10. Arizona recruits alot from California and has kids that are happy to be playing at the Holiday Bowl in San Diego.
Rob Vinciletti
Miami Heat vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: New Orleans Hornets -15
The Hornets qualify in a nice little system here tonight. What we want to do is play on home favorites of -4 or less with no rest if they were a road dog of 5 or more last night and scored 100 or more. If the opposition scored 100 or more as ahome favorite in their last game, these unrested home favorites have cashed over 80% of the time and win by an average 101-91 score. Miami is 0-9 ats vs the Hornets over the past few seasons. New Orleans is in one of their best team power angles as well tonight. They are a solid 14-1 straight up at home off a road game with no rest. Lay the small number here tonight.
Jim Feist
Boston Celtics vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Over 209
The Phoenix offense is smoking, tops in the NBA in scoring and three point shooting, riding a 4-0 Over the total run. The Suns reserves outscored their counterparts 52-31 to help Phoenix rout the reigning NBA champions 118-103 on Monday. Boston is playing their 4th straight road game, a long way from home. Look for the home team to control the tempo against the road weary visitors. Play the Celtics/Suns over the total.
Karl Garret
Charlotte at TORONTO -5'
Comp play winner last night on the New York Knicks plus the points, as New York wins it outright.
For Wednesday, while it appears tempting to back the underdog Bobcats, I have to say "nay".
Sure, Charlotte has won the last 3 meetings against Toronto, but the 'Cats catch the Raptors playing some solid hoop right now, as Toronto has won and covered their last 4, and they are 9-6 against the spread at home this season.
The Bobcats achilles heel this season has been the road, as Charlotte is on an 0-6 skid on the road that includes a loss at lowly New Jersey.
With triple-revenge on Toronto's side, look for the Raptors to take advantage of the poor-traveling Bobcats tonight north of the border.
Take Toronto minus the number.
3♦ TORONTO
Bobby Maxwell
Atlanta +6 at CLEVELAND
My FREE play domination continued on Tuesday with an NBA winner on Oklahoma City as the Thunder went to Washington and got an easy win. I'm now 16-2 with my last 17 freebies and on a 39-16 run with comp plays the last 55 days. Tonight I've got another NBA winner for you as I'm playing Atlanta plus the points in Cleveland.
Interesting situation here as these two teams squared off in Atlanta on Tuesday night and the Cavaliers got a 95-84 road win as a 2 ½-point underdog. Now they move to Cleveland for the second of a back-to-back series. It’s too hard to beat a team as good as Atlanta twice in a two-day span like that. I’m going to grab the points with the Hawks.
I know the Cavs have won seven in a row in this rivalry, but the Hawks have got an explosive offense that put up 110 points or more in six of their previous nine games before the Cavs came to town. Atlanta seems to focus well on the road, going 10-5 ATS in its last 15 on the highway.
The Hawks are on ATS runs of 21-9 ATS this season, 4-2 against the Eastern Conference, 15-8-1 against the Central Division, 8-1 on Wednesdays and 4-1-1 as an underdog.
This team is loaded with talent and look for them to bounce back today and definitely get within the number. Play the Hawks.
4♦ ATLANTA
Stephen Nover
Utah at MINNESOTA +7
The Timberwolves only have seven wins in their first 32 games, but two of them have come versus Utah. The Timberwolves are 2-0 straight-up and against the spread against the Jazz.
Despite their dreadful record, the Timberwolves are an improving team with Al Jefferson healthy, Kevin Love back in the lineup and Jonny Flynn emerging as a quality point guard. They match up well to Utah playing the Jazz with a great deal of confidence.
Utah is playing better. But the Jazz are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Utah has lost five of its last seven away contests with its only victories during this span occurring against the Nets and Bobcats.
Utah is 3-7 against the spread as a road favorite of five to 10 1/2 points. The Timberwolves are 9-3 against the number the past 12 times they've been an underdog.
Minnesota did play last night while Utah is rested. The Timberwolves were blown out by the Spurs. Only Love, though, played more than 30 minutes. He logged less than 32 minutes, though.
The Timberwolves also were on the second of back-to-back games when they last faced Utah earlier this month at home. They defeated the Jazz, 108-101, as 7 1/2-point underdogs. The Timberwolves are 3-1 against the spread in the second of consecutive games this month.
Minnesota has added depth with Ryan Gomes back from an ankle sprain. Jefferson is back playing at a high level and Love has put together nine straight double-doubles.
The Jazz face a tougher opponent on Thursday in Oklahoma City. Utah then has a home game on Saturday against suddenly struggling Denver. It's hard to think the Jazz would look past a double-revenge spot, but Minnesota has had the Jazz's number. The Timberwolves have covered in five of their last six meetings with Utah.
3♦ TIMBERWOLVES
Jeff Benton
Bowling Green +1 vs. Idaho, at Boise, Idaho
Tough-luck free-play loser with Temple on Tuesday, as the Owls jumped out to a 21-7 lead against UCLA but couldn’t add to their point total thereafter. For Wednesday, I’ll head back to the college gridiron and take Bowling Green in a virtual pick-em spot against Idaho in the Humanitarian Bowl.
The entire world is jumping on Idaho in this game for one reason: They think the Vandals, playing in Boise, Idaho, will have a big home-field advantage. Wrong. Sure, the crowd will be on Idaho’s side in this game, but that doesn’t mean the Vandals will be competing in an advantageous environment. That’s because they play their home games in a dome on campus; this bowl is being played in the elements on Boise State’s home field – and those elements call for snow and temps in the mid-30s.
Believe me, Bowling Green, which plays its home games (and all of its MAC games) outdoors, will be much more prepared for this rough weather than Idaho. As it is, these teams ended the regular season going in totally opposite directions – Bowling Green won four in a row and six of its last seven down the stretch, scoring 30-plus points in all six wins and allowing 24 points or less five of the seven contests (21.3 ppg).
On the other hand, Idaho followed up a five-game winning streak by losing four of its last five (0-5 ATS), including a 63-25 loss to Boise State on this same field. And during their 1-4 slide to end the season, the Vandals gave up 70, 34, 31, 63 and 52 points! Now they’re facing a prolific Falcons passing attack led by QB Tyler Sheehan (3,664 passing yards, 23 TDs, 6 INTs) and the nation’s #1 WR in Freddie Barnes (NCAA-best 138 catches for more than 1,500 receiving yards) – good luck!
The money’s pouring in on the wrong team here. Take Bowling Green, which will win this game by at least a touchdown.
4♦ BOWLING GREEN
Andrew Bucciarelli
2** Colorado Avalanche (+115) over Ottawa Senators
The Colorado Avalanche have taken the lead in the Northwest Division due to mostly play of their rookies.The Avalanche will look for their fourth consecutive road win, while the Senators look for their third straight win overall.The Senators, Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson, are still out.The Avalanche play six of seven away from home starting with this game and they are 11-7-4 on the road.Look for a strong outing on the road for the Avalanche against the Sens.
2** Tampa Bay Lightning (-120) over Montreal Canadiens
Montreal has been slacking as of late and really have not shown what they could be.Tampa Bay is playing well entering the teams’ latest matchup, winning four of five after a stretch of one win in 11 games. Cammalleri of the Canadiens will be has not been playing to what he needs to be for his team to be successful and I do not see him exploding for offense against this Tampa Bay Lightning team.Tanguay has scored in two straight games and St. Louis has had two goals and six assists during his five game point streak. Look for a big night from Tampa.
1* Boston Bruins (-165) over Atlanta Thrashers
Boston’s offense will look to continue their awakening against the Thrashers last week.The Bruins have had their offensive struggles with a low 2.47 goals per game.They have been held to two or fewer goals 4 times in their last five; however, the exception being a 6-4 home win over the Thrashers last Wednesday.Atlanta has allowed 22 goals during this season worst five game losing streak as Pavelec and Johan Hedberg have been slacking lately.Tim Thomas looks to get the start in net as he is 4-0 in his last four games overall and 4-0 in the last 4 meeting against the Thrashers. Look for another big night from Thomas of the Bruins.
Bettorsworld
Nebraska vs Arizona
Nebraska was one second away from pulling a shocking upset over the BCS Title Bound Texas Longhorns. While they are not playing in a BCS Bowl Game because of that one second, they still have had a solid year under Head Coach Bo Pelini, and the future looks bright for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska finished the year 9-4 with wins over Oklahoma and Missouri. It has been their defense that has carried them for most of the year led by All American DT Ndamukong Suh, and that defense is going to have to at their best against Arizona because their high powered offense can put up points in a hurry. The Wildcats finished the year up 8-4 including a win over USC to close out the year. Coach Mike Stoops has this program going in the right direction, and a win over a very good Big 12 team would help build so me momentum.
PRIMETIME MATCHUP
It is no surprise what the PRIMETIME MATCHUP will be in this ballgame. This game will be decided by who has the most success between the Arizona offense and the Nebraska defense. This Wildcat offense has been putting up some impressive stats this season. They are 4th in both scoring and total offense with 30 points and 408 yards per game. Their offense is led by QB Nick Foles who has almost thrown for 2500 yards this season and 19 TD’s. While Foles is the leader this offense is much more then just a passing attack. They run a very balanced attack. They average 167 rushing yards to go along with their 240 passing yard per game. DT Ndamukong Suh and the Nebraska defense will have their hands full with the Wildcats balanced attack, but Nebraska has been up to the challenge all year.
The Cornhuskers are ranked 1st in the Big 12 in scoring defense allowing just 11 points per game and are ranked 3rd in total defense allowing 285 yards a game. The Nebraska defense is solid in every aspect defensively, but if you are going to attack them you have to do it through the air, and stay as far away from SUH as possible. The Husker’s are only allowing 88 yards per game on the ground, but are giving up 189 yards through the air. This is a case of picking the lesser of two evils, but in reality this Nebraska defense has no glaring holes.
THE FINAL VERDICT
This Nebraska defense showed the country what they could do in the Big 12 Title Game against Texas. They held QB Colt McCoy and the Longhorns to just 13 points and just 202 total yards in that game, and if it wasn’t for a review that put one second on the clock Nebraska would be the Big 12 champs and would be heading to a BCS bowl game.
Nebraska has put up some very nice numbers on both sides of the ball. Their yards per point offensive number is 13, 12 in road games. Their defensive numbers are among the best in the entire country with a whopping 25 overall! Now that's a defense. Arizona's numbers are almost 14 offensively and 13 defensively. Very poor defensively and believe it or not, not as good as Nebraska's offensive numbers, although close.
Now, those numbers are meaningless if the schedule strength of the two teams is not similar. But when we compare the schedule strength of these two, we notice that they have played scheduled very close in strength. In fact, the numbers we use show Nebraska as having played a schedule a couple of points stronger than Arizona's.
This is no doubt the best matchup so far this year in the Bowl games. It should be a good game, but at the end of the day, Nebraska is the better football team and should win this game. We have lost some value here over the last day or two as this game moves from pk all the way up to -3. We pay the price here for not getting this play out to you sooner, but we still like it.
We're going to break our wager up, playing some at Nebraska -1 with high juice and playing some more at -3 +106.
3* Nebraska (half at -1 and half at -3)