Scott Delaney
Miami at New Orleans
Like the way the Heat are closing out December, and will bank on them to notch their season-high fourth win in a row.
Since losing four of six to open the month, the Heat have won five of six and are holding opponents to 86.7 points per game on 41.6 percent from the field. They're allowing an average of 79.0 points during their current three-game winning streak, and should be rested enough to hold their fourth straight opponent to fewer than 90.
The Hornets are a weary bunch after a Texas tussle in Houston last night, losing 108-100 to the Rockets. New Orleans dropped to 2-13 on the road, and is now being asked to come right back to be ready for a defensive-happy Heat team now?
I don't think so ... take the road team here.
5♦ MIAMI HEAT
Tony Weston
Strong call with Syracuse last night as the Orange take care of business and give us a solid Comp Play winner.
I’m handing you another Comp Play winner tonight as I’m taking Bowling Green over Idaho in the Humanitarian Bowl.
Coming into this game Idaho has been horrible down the stretch, having failed to cover in 5 straight games and going 1-4 SU in that stretch.
Bowling Green, on the other hand, rolls into this game riding a 4-game SU and ATS winning streak. The Falcons are also 6-1 their last 7 games overall and have covered in 5 of their last 6 games.
Consider, too, Bowling Green has covered in 6 of its last 8 games when installed as an underdog and is 5-2 ATS its last 7 games when catching between 1/2 and 3 points.
The Vandals, on the other hand, have failed to cover in 4 straight games when installed as a favorite of between 1/2 and 3 points and are just 6-21 ATS their last 27 games following a SU loss.
It’ll be another non-cover for Idaho as Bowling Green cashes in.
3♦ BOWLING GREEN
Craig Davis
This one is really simple for me... the Bearcats are desperate for a win while this will be the first true road test for the UConn Huskies. Teams playing at home against other good teams in a "must win" situation usually come to play, especially when they know that no one believes they can do it. To be honest with you, I'm not 100% convinced this is the 10th best team in the country as their ranking would indicate. It's one thing to play good competition on a neutral floor... it's another thing to go on the road to a very hostile environment and keep up your winning ways. Cincy hasn't lost a home game (6-0) all season and with or without Stephenson (though I think he'll play) this Bearcats team is loaded and deep. They don't rely on one guy... they rely on about 8 or 9 and that' something UConn just doesn't do. If Dyson or Robinson aren't hitting, this UConn team becomes very average, at best. This Bearcat team plays really good defense, especially at home (59 ppg) and they are defending the three-ball better with each game. The Bearcats promise to get solid production from Yancy Gates and Deonta Vaughn... two players who will definitely need to step it up if Stephenson isn't able to play. Like I said, I just don't trust a team that hasn't played a true road game yet and I'm not going to start with this game. Free play of the day on the Cincy Bearcats.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Dominic Fazzini
Bowling Green vs. Idaho (pick) at Boise, Idaho
I continued my hot streak with my complimentary selections Tuesday, scoring another winner with the Rockets' victory over New Orleans. That pushed my record to 49-31 over the past 80 days, with a run of 32-18 over the last 50!
And the good times are going to continue rolling today as I back Idaho to beat Bowling Green in the Humanitarian Bowl.
The Vandals didn't end the regular season strong, losing their last three games and failing to cover in five straight. But in two of those losses, quarterback Nathan Enderle was missing from the Idaho lineup, taking a major weapon away from the team.
However, Enderle came back strong in Idaho's last game, a 52-49 loss to Utah State, throwing for 262 yards and three touchdowns. The 6-5 junior ranked seventh in the Football Bowl Subdivision with a 122.75 QB rating and completed 62.3 percent of his throws for 2,666 yards and 18 TDs.
His presence makes the whole offense better -- and what an offense it is. The Vandals averaged 31.8 points and 451 yards per game, and has a much more balanced offense than Bowling Green has.
The Falcons rely heavily on the passing game, and have the nation's leading receiver in Freddie Barnes, who is closing in on the single-season reception record. You can be sure Idaho double- and triple-teams Barnes today in an effort to make Bowling Green beat it with lesser weapons.
With the Vandals seeking their first bowl win ever, and playing in front of a "home" crowd in Boise, they should have the edge needed to come away a winner in a battle of pretty evenly-matched teams. Take Idaho to come away with a win and cover in this one.
2♦ IDAHO
Drew Gordon
Charlotte +6 at TORONTO
27-19-2 roll L48 Free Plays! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Bobcats/Raptors match up.
This is an interesting match up, because bettors are calling for revenge and touting the Bobcats atrocious 1-13 SU record on the road. However, if we dig a little deeper, you'll see why those factors actually help the Bobcats. Read on...
You see, they maybe 1-13 SU away, but who cares? The important number is they're a profitable 8-6 ATS away! Not only that, but so what if the 'Cats have shown little confidence on the road? If there's one team they're going to have confidence against (no matter where they play), it's this same Raptors team they beat by 35 points in late November! My point is perception and reality can be 2 very different things, in that, bettors may be perceiving revenge and sloppy road play, but I see a confident Bobcats team keeping it just inside the number tonight.
Match up wise we see another edge for Charlotte, as Wallace and Jackson crushed this Raptors defense in their last meeting. Granted, Toronto's defense is playing a hell of a lot better of late, but I'm hardly convinced because they beat crap teams like the Nets and Pistons in recent games! And please don't talk to me about Jarret Jack, a journeyman PG, who is filling in for Calderon. He got locked down in that November blowout, and he'll be ho-hum once again tonight!
Bottom line, while the media continues to tout the Bobcats terrible road record and the how the Raptors will avenge themselves tonight... I'll quietly side with the road dog here, as the Bobcats are not going to be intimidated by a team they destroyed a little over a month ago. Raptors may win SU, but Bobcats collect the cash Wednesday night!
Take Charlotte plus the points over Toronto in this NBA match up.
2♦ CHARLOTTE
Michael Cannon
Charlotte at TORONTO -6
I am now 53-37-3 with my last 93 free plays.
Take the Raptors as the home chalk over the Bobcats.
Charlotte has been playing decently this year, but most of its success has been at home. The Bobcats still struggle to score points and that’s what gets them in trouble when they hit the road.
Toronto hasn’t been spectacular, but they have been successful when holding the opposition under 100 points.
Since the Bobcats figure to stay below that threshold, the Raptors are the play here.
Take Toronto minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
2♦ TORONTO
Jr Tips
CLIPPERS at TRAIL BLAZERS
The Portland Trail Blazers look to bounce back tonight against a Clipper team coming off its best game of the season. Portland was outscored 60-40 in the paint in a 104-93 loss to Philadelphia on Monday night after wins over Denver, San Antonio, Dallas and Miami. All-star Bradon Roy posted 24 points after scoring 41 in a 107-96 win over the Nuggets on Friday night as Roy has scored at least 23 points in 13 straight games giving him the NBA's longest active streak of 20-point games. The Clippers won 92-90 over Boston Sunday night as Baron Davis hit a fall away 22-foot jumper at the buzzer. Davis finished with 24 points and 13 assists as Los Angeles snapped a three-game losing streak. Center Chris Kaman missed three of the Clippers' four games against the Blazers last season due to various injuries as Portland won the series 3-1. Kaman posted 27 points and 12 rebounds against Boston as the 7-footer is averaging 24.4 points and 11.0 rebounds in his last five games. The Clippers are coming off their best game of the season while the Blazers look to rebound at home in a place in which they rarely loose. Look for the Blazers to put on a good performance after a lackluster game against the Sixers Monday night.
TAKE BLAZERS -7
Bryan Leonard
Atlanta at Cleveland
It's become very obvious that the Hawks simply do not match up well with the Cavaliers. Cleveland swept Atlanta in the playoffs last season and they beat the Hawks by 11 last night in Atlanta. The Hawks went scoreless for over nine minutes in the late stages of that game as they had no offensive answer for the Cleveland defense. After scoring 110, 104 and 112 points in their previous three games Atlanta managed just 84 last night at home against Cleveland.
The Cavaliers have now held their last three opponents to 84, 83 and 87 points. That includes the Hawks, Rockets and Lakers. Cleveland has won 10 of their last 11 games while holding six of those opponents under 90 points. They haven't allowed more than 102 points in regulation in their last 21 games. With New Jersey, Charlotte and Washington on the upcoming schedule the Hawks get their full focus once again tonight.
PLAY CLEVELAND
SPORTS WAGERS
SACRAMENTO –2 over Philadelphia
Before this line was posted I was expecting the Kings to be about a 7-point favorite and was shocked to see it at –2. There is no doubt the books expect the Kings to be flat tonight because under normal circumstances they would absolutely be a bigger favorite than this even without Tyreke Evans in the lineup. Evans missed last game and the Kings still beat the Nuggets. After consecutive games against the Cav’s, Lakers and Nuggets and with the Lakers on deck this has all the ingredients of a letdown and that’s what the oddsmakers are counting on. In other words, this game has trap written all over it, make no mistake about that. I usually will not bite in a situation like this but these Kings are unlike so many other teams in similar situations. The Kings have captured the hearts of every fan in the city and play every game with passion and purpose. The atmosphere at Arco is electric every single game and the players love affair with its fans just keeps growing more and more. The Kings are so tough at home and while the books are expecting a letdown, I’m not. This team wants to win as bad as any team in the league and this is a huge step down in class for them. They took both the Lakers and Cav’s to OT before beating the Nuggets and after playing that trio this one should appear in slow motion for them. So, if this is the sucker bet of the night, shame on me but these Kings appear to be focused and on a mission to make the playoffs. Besides, this intruder seldom offers up any resistance at all. Play: Sacramento –2 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
CLEVELAND –6 +1.02 over Atlanta
The Cav’s went into Atlanta last night and made them look like a bottom tier club in the fourth quarter when it counted most. They continue to beat up on this intruder and after last night, not to mention the previous six games between these two, one has to figure the Hawks to be at a huge psychological disadvantage. Fact is, they know they can’t beat the Cav’s and did nothing last night to suggest otherwise. In fact, the Cav’s didn’t even play that good. They were careless with the rock, they didn’t shoot well and LBJ had a well below standard game. Now the venue switches to Cleveland and after a 10-point fourth quarter last night and after losing seven straight to the Cav’s, most of them by double-digits, the Hawks can’t be in a good frame of mind. The Cav’s are the hottest team in the NBA and they should stick to the Hawks again. Play: Cleveland –6 +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
ORLANDO –10½ over Milwaukee
The Bucks are in big trouble. They’ve now gone 4-14 over its last 18 games and both Redd and Bogut were benched in its last game in Charlotte. The Bobcats jumped out to a big lead with a 33-14 second quarter and that’s when Scott Skiles decided to bench his guys. The Bucks made a run but it was more of Charlotte letting up after seeing what appeared to be a “throwing in the towel” move by the Bucks. When it counted, the Cats put them away and finished the deal. Now there’s some dissension on the squad, nobody is playing hard and the Bucks continue to allow the opposition a ton of easy baskets. The Magic should absolutely ruin this team. They’ve been off since Christmas Day and after that humbling loss at home to the Celtics they definitely will not be in a sympathetic mood. This one could get very ugly real quick. Play: Orlando –10½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
ST. BONAVENTURE -9 over Canisius
St. Bonaventure has played a brutal schedule and it’s the sole reason why their record isn’t significantly better. Check out the powerhouses the Bonnies have played this year: Syracuse, Mississippi State, St John’s and potential tournament team Illinois State. Out of those games, the only bad loss came to Mississippi State, and St. Bonaventure managed to hang with Syracuse for about 35 minutes on December 19th. St. Bonaventure hasn’t slipped against opponents they should crush and Canisius should be one of those teams. Aside from playing in the weak MAAC, Canisius shoots a laughable 24.4% from three-point range and has lost to teams like North Florida and Bowling Green. They also allow opponents to shoot 49.5% from two and considering St. Bonaventure is the 8th best team in Division I at shooting inside the arc (55.9%) its safe to say Canisius is going to allow easy baskets tonight. St. Bonaventure is the better team that has so far proven it can beat weak squads and tonight should be no different. Play: St. Bonaventure –9 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Colorado +1.10 over OTTAWA
The Av’s are warming up again after losing 10 of 13 and have now won seven of its last 10 games. They’ve also played the sixth most difficult schedule in the league compared to the Senators 25th toughest according to the Sagarin ratings. The Av’s have scored four goals or more in three of its last four games and if not for a late game meltdown against the Ducks they’d have four wins in a row, as they lead 2-0 going to the third. The Sens are playing good too. However, this is a game that could be nothing but trouble for them. They rarely see the Av’s and after consecutive games against Boston, Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Montreal, all rivalry games, we could definitely see them take a night off, especially with the Islanders coming in for a New Year’s Eve game tomorrow. Also consider that they’ve won its last two without Alfredsson and Spezza and will play again without them. This is a great spot for the visitor to catch the Sens at half speed and even if Ottawa plays its best, the Av’s still have a great shot. Play: Colorado +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +1.55 over CALGARY
The Kings are in a mini funk at the moment but this team works too hard to take it too seriously and it’s only a matter of time before they get back on track. At this price and against the reeling Flames, the Kings are most definitely worthy of some strong consideration here. In fact, Calgary has just two lousy wins over its last eight games and they’re struggling miserably to score goals. They also have the Oilers on deck tomorrow night in what is becoming a traditional New Year’s Eve match-up. Interestingly enough, the home teams went 6-1 last New Year’s Eve but the day before, on the 30th, the home teams lost six of eight games played and again, Calgary will host the Oilers tomorrow. Nice spot and a definite overlay on the visitor. Play: Los Angeles +1.55 (Risking 2 units).
Montreal +1.01 over TAMPA BAY
The Canadiens are getting some healthy bodies back. One game after Brian Gionta returned, Roman Hamrlik will get back into the lineup tonight and that most certainly helps. Andrei Markov has been back for a few games now and he continues to prove that he’s as valuable a defenseman as any in the league. The Canadiens will now send out two decent lines with Cammalleri, Plekanec and Andrei Kostitsyn on the first line and Pouliot, Gomez, and Gionta on the second. Montreal is coming off a loss in Ottawa but probably deserved a better fate and didn’t even get a single chance on the power-play. Montreal is the leagues #1 ranked power-play unit. It would also appear that Carey Price will get the call in net after being the back-up for five games and one has to figure that he’ll be pretty jacked up to get back in there. The Bolts are warm for sure with four wins in five games and they have a terrific record against the Habs. In fact, they’ve picked up points in six straight vs Montreal with four wins and two OT losses. However, the puck line says Montreal, as the Lightning are -½ +1.50 and the puck line is something you should never ignore. Books like the Habs and that’s good information. Play: Montreal +1.01 (Risking 2 units).
Larry Ness
ORL -10.5 vs MIL
The Magic must of thought Christmas was Easter this past Friday, as they 'laid an egg' in their showdown with the Celtics. Orlando was held to 27 first-half points and shot a season-low 33.3 percent in an 86-77 loss to Boston. The Magic close their five-game homestand Wednesday night but their game with the Bucks also begins a six-game stretch against sub-.500 opponents. That's significant because with Orlando's loss to Boston the Magic fell to 7-7 against teams currently above .500, they are 15-1 vs sub-.500 teams. The Bucks surprised most observers by opening 8-3 but enter this game 12-17, meaning they've dropped 14 of their last 18 games. Rookie Brandon Jennings (19.5-6.1 APG) has been terrific, Bogut (15.0-9.7) has been healthy most of the season and Ilyasova, the 2nd-year 6-10 player from Turkey, has basically doubled his output from his rookie season (from 6.1-2.9 to 11.7-7.1). Redd is averaging just 11.5 PPG and has missed significant time again for the Bucks and he's been very erratic in his return. He scored a season-high 32 points on 12/23 but followed that effort with a total of just eight points in Milwaukee's last two games. Jameer Nelson is back at the point for Orlando (not 100 percent yet) but the Magic are as deep as any team in the league. Milwaukee is 3-10 SU on the road (have lost eight of its last nine but are a more respectable 7-6 ATS). However, the Magic haven't played since their "nightmare on Christmas" and should have plenty of motivation to get back on the winning track before heading out on the road. Milwaukee has lost its last seven games at Amway Arena and this one "won't be close." Lay it.
Tony George
Boston Celtics vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Phoenix Suns -1.5
The good news is the line is dropping in the Suns Favor! Boston on a 3-3 slide losing to the Clippers, Warriors, Sixers in that span and struggling on offense. The Suns are 12-2 SU at home, off a big win against the Lakers and they have already beat the Celtics as an 11 point pup by 7 in Boston back in November. Like the Suns offense here to be the difference.
Rocketman
UAB vs. Virginia
Play: UAB +2.5
UAB has started off a super 11-1 overall this year. UAB Is 5-1 ATS this year when playing against a team with a winning record. Virginia is 3-11 ATS last 3 years against good defensive teams allowing 64 points per game or less. UAB is allowing only 57.5 points per game overall and 59.2 points per game on the road this year. Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Blazers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Blazers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Blazers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Cavaliers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games. Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 Wednesday games. Cavaliers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Cavaliers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. We'll recommend a small play on UAB tonight!
Wunderdog
Massachusetts vs. Davidson
Play: Davidson -8
Davidson started off by losing seven of their first nine games. They were labeled as a bad team and now there is value on them, even as a favorite. Since that bad start, they have gone 3-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. In fact, they have lost just one game ATS in their last seven games. At home this team is 3-1, averaging 78 points per game and winning by 25 points per game! UMass is just 2-5 on the road, allowing 82 points per game. The Minutemen have gone just 4-12 ATS since last season in non-conference games. Take the Wildcats here.
Jack Jones
Pepperdine vs. Georgia
Play: Georgia -14
I look for Georgia to put on a rout of Pepperdine here tonight. Pepperdine is giving up 74.2 ppg this year against teams averaging 70.1 ppg and they are scoring 70.6 ppg against teams allowing 71.3. Not terrible numbers but they have played poor opponents and yet they are still 4-10 on the season.
Georgia is 5-1 on their home floor and they are scoring 68.5 ppg there against opponents allowing 65.5. Defensively this is a strong team that allows 59.5 ppg and 38.5% shooting at home against teams averaging 70 ppg and 43.2% shooting.
The Bulldogs have pulled off two straight wins over Illinois and Florida Atlantic, covering the spread in both. Pepperdine is coming off a win against Utah, but had lost seven straight before that. The value here is with the home team to win and win big tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Minnesota Timberwolves +8
The T-Wolves have won both games against the Jazz this season, and three in a row dating back to last season, and I expect them to keep this one within the number tonight against a Utah team that is just 5-9 on the road and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings with the Wolves. While you might expect the Jazz to bounce back tonight after a pair of losses to Minnesota this month, we can't overlook the fact that Utah is just 5-17 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons, actually losing in these spots by an average score of 98.2 to 108.2. Utah is just 1-4 SU & ATS in division games this season so it comes as no surprise that it is just 4-14 ATS in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons, losing in these games by an average score of 103.2 to 108.8. Minnesota has just 7 wins on the season, but three of those have come in division play, which it obviously takes more seriously than Utah. We'll take the points for 1 unit tonight.