Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, January 1

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Dallas at Washington
The Wizards host Dallas today coming off a 106-99 win at Detroit and carrying a 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game. Washington is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Wizards favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1)

Game 701-702: Dallas at Washington (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 116.773; Washington 121.770
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 5; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 1; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1); Over

Game 703-704: Indiana at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 127.620; Toronto 119.450
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 8; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 5 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-5 1/2); Under

Game 705-706: New Orleans at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 118.231; Minnesota 121.998
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 218
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 6; 212
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+6); Over

Game 707-708: Philadelphia at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 107.431; Denver 114.866
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 7 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 9 1/2; 211 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+9 1/2); Under

Game 709-710: Charlotte at LA Clippers (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 116.166; LA Clippers 129.856
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 13 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 10 1/2; 196
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-10 1/2); Under

NHL

Toronto at Detroit
The Maple Leafs and Red Wings square off in the Winter Classic at Michigan Stadium with Toronto coming off a 5-2 win over Carolina and Detroit sporting a 1-11 record in its last 12 games when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. Toronto is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Maple Leafs favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110)

Game 51-52: Toronto at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.257; Detroit 9.962
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Over

Game 53-54: Tampa Bay at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.077; Vancouver 12.576
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-155); 5
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-155); Under

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Nevada at San Jose State
The Wolf Pack travel to San Jose State tonight to face a Spartans team that is coming off an 87-59 win over Pacifica College and is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a victory of more than 20 points in the previous game. Nevada is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wolf Pack favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-1 1/2)

Game 711-712: Loyola-Chicago at Indiana State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 46.580; Indiana State 63.606
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 17
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (-14 1/2)

Game 713-714: UNLV at Fresno State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 62.118; Fresno State 61.522
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 1
Vegas Line: UNLV by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (+4 1/2)

Game 715-716: Boston College at Harvard (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 55.249; Harvard 63.254
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 8
Vegas Line: Harvard by 11
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+11)

Game 717-718: SMU at Cincinnati (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 61.616; Cincinnati 73.432
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 12
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-6)

Game 719-720: Old Dominion at William & Mary (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 49.203; William & Mary 57.805
Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: William & Mary by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: William & Mary (-3 1/2)

Game 721-722: Utah State at Air Force (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 58.982; Air Force 54.149
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 5
Vegas Line: Utah State by 9
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+9)

Game 723-724: Evansville at Drake (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 56.040; Drake 61.159
Dunkel Line: Drake by 5
Vegas Line: Drake by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (+7 1/2)

Game 725-726: Bradley at Northern Iowa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 48.395; Northern Iowa 63.359
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 15
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-11 1/2)

Game 727-728: Temple at Rutgers (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 64.832; Rutgers 54.656
Dunkel Line: Temple by 10
Vegas Line: Temple by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Temple (-1 1/2)

Game 729-730: San Diego State at Colorado State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 66.712; Colorado State 66.536
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+4 1/2)

Game 731-732: Nevada at San Jose State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 54.888; San Jose State 50.398
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Nevada by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-1 1/2)

Game 733-734: College of Charleston at Davidson (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: College of Charleston 48.729; Davidson 58.788
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 10
Vegas Line: Davidson by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (-5 1/2)

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Stanford -6FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan State's defense is the heart and soul of the Spartans team, but they have taken a big hit as Senior linebacker and caption Max Bullough has been suspended for this game for violating team rules. Bullough is the leader of the Spartan defense and his loss is huge. The Michigan State defense has put up great numbers this season, but I don't believe that they are really as good as those numbers suggest. A big reason is that the competition that they faced is just not very good offensively. Ohio State exposed MSU a bit in their loss to the Spartans as they were able to rush for 273 yards in the loss. Stanford has played one of the most difficult schedules in the nation this year and I believe their defense is better than the Spartans. Stanford has totally shutdown teams like Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA and Arizona State and I don't expect them to all the Michigan State offense that struggles at times to have a big day against them. The PAC12 was one of if not they strongest conference this season and it will show in this matchup against a BIG 10 pretender. Lay the points.
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Baylor -16.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Baylor Bears have had an incredible season and they have put up some huge offensive numbers. The Baylor team and the fan base are thrilled to be playing in this BCS game and I expect them to light up the scoreboard. The Bears have scored an average of 68 points in their last two bowl games and I expect them to keep rolling here. Central Florida is a good team with a solid defense, but they have not seen an offensive onslaught like they will see in this game from a Bears team that gained 7.6 yards per play this season. The Knights are very lucky to be here and I believe the stage will be too big for them as they are over matched in this game similar to Northern Illinois last year when they crashed the BCS. The Knights early season win over Penn State doesn't look as impressive now as it did at the time and it took some very lucky plays for this UCF team to finish the season with only one loss. With this game matchup coming in a New Year's Day BCS game there is no way Baylor will not be focused for this matchup. I expect it to get ugly, lay the points.

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Nebraska vs. GeorgiaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Nebraska +9FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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No way shape or form am I backing a football program like Georgia that coughs up points in bunches. It must be noted that the Cornhuskers HC Pelini, has been potent vs opposition that allow more than 24 PPG on the season winning 22 to of 24 games straight up. With Georgia without the services of starting QB Aaron Murray, who is out with a knee injury . The Dawgs are at a disadvantage as they start a pivot , Junior Hutson Mason, with one career start.

Tony George
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Iowa vs. LSU
Play: LSU -7
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Cheap line at -7 folks Yep, I said it, and that does take into account laying points over 3 to 5 points in the bigger bowl games is always risky.. An SEC team versus a Big 10 team whose claim to fame is beating up Nebraska in their season finale on the road, and that Husker team was riddled with injuries along with losing 4 starters during the game. Iowa is a middle of the pack Big 10 team whose has nothing special on either side of the ball, a QB that is horrific in pressure situations and LSU is a top tier team in the SEC who had a brutal schedule.
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Imagine is Iowa played Texas AM this season, on a neutral site. Just as an example for looking at this line from a different perspective as we speculate for a moment. They would be a 6-7 point dog against Johnny Football and company, and yet LSU beat Texas AM 34-10. Switch gears now, Now LSU is laying 7 to a team who will struggle against the LSU defense, has no ability to stretch the field vertically and although Mettenburger is out, I like the LSU chances here, because if their QB was healthy this would be a 10-13 point spread all day long. Cam Cameron can get an offense ready better than any OC in the country and he will have his young QB coached up for this one, and TEAM SPEED is a huge factor here, LSU has it, and Iowa does not. Les Miles has a way of showing up in big marquee games, I expect a 14+ point win here for the Tigers.

Red Dog Sports
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Central Florida vs. Baylor
Play: Central Florida +17
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Other books have this at +16 or +16.5. Baylor was great at home on offense but not as efficient on the road and this will be played on a neutral field and both teams have been off for close to a month.

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Central Florida at BaylorFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 67 points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 30-4 mark for 88% winners since 1992. Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (BAYLOR) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (330 to 390 YPG) after 7+ games, in non-conference games. Play under the posted total with all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (BAYLOR) in a game involving two average defensive teams allowing between 330 and 390 YPG after 7+ games, and in non-conference games. This system has gone a perfect 6-0 this season and is 14-2 over the past three seasons. The Baylor offense is widely known and ranks in the Top-5 of the majority of offensive categories. What is not widely known is how strong the UCF defense is right now and how far the unit has come since the beginning of the year. UCF ranks 12th in the nation allowing 19.6 PPG, 15th posting a 0.286 points-per-play ratio, 32nd allowing only 32% third-down conversions, and most impressive 22nd allowing 6.0 yards-per-pass attempt despite opponents throwing the ball 57% of all plays against them. The secondary will be able to play well against Baylor's attack and they have the speed and athleticism to disrupt the offensive flow. This game will have a ton of yards between the 20's, but the scoreboard will reflect field goal conversions instead of TD.

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Michigan St. at StanfordFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It may tempting to take the Under here with the Cardinal's 15th ranked defense facing the Spartans top-ranked defense but this looks like a wise opportunity to play the contrarian. Michigan State (12-1) generated 437 yards of offense in their 34-24 win against a very capable Ohio State defense and that includes 304 passing yards from sophomore quarterback Connor Cook. Stanford (11-2) comes off a 38-14 win at Arizona State in the Pac-12 Championship Game and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Cardinal gained 240 rushing yards in that game as well and they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards. With the number in the low-40s, take the Over.

Jesse Schule

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets -9

Last year the Nuggets owned the NBA's best home record at 38-3, but they could fall below .500 at home tonight if they can't beat the Sixers. Denver has lost seven straight, their worst losing streak in more than a decade.

Those losses have come against the likes of Miami (their last game), Oklahoma City, Golden State and the L.A. Clippers. Tonight they host a Sixers team that is just 2-13 on the road.

In the loss to Miami, Denver actually played a pretty solid game, losing by just three points to the defending champs. Ty Lawson had 26 points on 8-of-15 shooting, and he was 5-of-8 from beyond the arc.

Kenneth Faried has been battling through injuries during this recent losing skid, but he's now playing his third game since returning to the lineup, and he logged 22 minutes, scoring eight points on 4-of-8 shooting versus Miami. If the Manimal is healthy, he could play a big role here against the Sixers.

The Nuggets won on the road in Philly in early December by a score of 103-92, and they should be able to win again by double digits at home here.

Sean Higgs

Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
Play: Wisconsin -1

The Capital One Bowl features the Wisconsin Badgers (9-3) of the Big 10 squaring off versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (10-2) of the SEC. Kick-off is scheduled for New Year’s Day at 1pm. This game is being played in the Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando. South Carolina is currently ranked #9 and the Badgers #19. Wisconsin currently sits as a 1.5 point favorite.

Let’s get right to it. The first thing I see here is the lower ‘ranked’ team giving points to the higher ‘ranked’ team. As I have stated numerous times in my game analysis, I always take special interest in this. I know the rankings are just a number, but that number gives a perceived talent and play level of a team.

We have Wisconsin, in what I think is a step-down bowl. They have played in 3 straight Rose Bowls but I don’t know how unmotivated they will be to face a tough SEC team. They know the SEC has been dominating the BCS so they will be hungry here I have no doubt about it. Badgers are also off a home loss to Penn State as 25 point favorites. Yet they are favored over a 10 win SEC team!

The Badgers are going to want to pound the ball all afternoon. They have a pair of RBs in Gordon and White who both went for over 1300 yards and 12 TDs on the ground this year. This offense is one of the best putting up 280+ yards a game over land. When you control the ball like that you also produce a top 10 defense in yards allowed. These guys can keep the Gamecocks in check.

South Carolina is by far the more athletic team on both sides of the ball. I think they have a clear edge with Steve Spurrier on the sidelines. I think Connor Shaw also rates the edge in QB play for this game. And how can we forget Jadeveon Clowney on defense? Shaw had a solid year in which he tossed just 1 INT to 21 TDs. The senior Shaw rates head and shoulders above sophomore Joel Stave for Wiscy who tossed 10 more INTs on just 50 more throws.

I just can’t get past the fact that when faced with big, bruising offenses, South Carolina couldn’t come up with a win. They lost to at Georgia (who I think is better than Wiscy with Murray at QB) and lost at Tennessee who I don’t think is.

South Carolina just 3-4 in bowl games under Spurrier. Wiscy will be looking to avenge 3 straight Rose Bowl losses. They have that bad home loss to Penn State lingering over them. The should have beaten Arizona State and were in it vs Ohio State.

Steve Janus

Iowa +7½

With LSU missing their leader and arguably their best player in senior quarterback Zach Mettenberger, I'm taking the Hawkeyes and the 7.5 points in the Outback Bowl on Wednesday. The Tigers backup quarterback is freshman Anthony Jennings, who is primarily a run-first quarterback. He ran 26 times in his lone start against Arkansas, while throwing it just 7 times. Iowa's defense is backed by three stud linebackers and ranked 16th in the country in run defense at 120.8 ypg. The Hawkeyes have thrived against running quarterbacks in the past and having extra time to prepare for Jennings will only make it that much easier. Iowa is 35-15 ATS in their last 50 games vs teams who average 200 or more rushing yards/game and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs teams who average 37 or more points/game.

Offensively the Hawkeyes are a bit challenged, but they do have a very strong offensive line and number of capable running backs who can move the chains. I look for sophomore quarterback Jake Rudock to make enough big plays in the passing game to allow Iowa to put points on the board. I definitely like Iowa to keep it within a touchdown and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won this game outright. Something to keep in mind is that LSU's defense allowed 32.4 points on an average of 424 yards of total offense on the road this season, including 4.9 yards per rush attempt.

Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is one of the best in the business at taking advantage of the extra time off and getting his team prepared for bowl games. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 January bowl games. LSU on the other hand has lost three of their last four bowl games outright, including a 24-24 loss to Clemson last year as a 6-point favorite.

Jeff Alexander

Central Florida +17

Central Florida isn't getting quite the respect it deserves from oddsmakers. Baylor was dominant during the regular season, but the Big 12 was down. UCF is a more complete team on both sides of the football than Baylor is used to seeing. The Knights beat Louisville on the road and played South Carolina to a 3-point game so they have proven that they can compete against top-notch competition. The Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record. Grab the points.

Jim Feist

Michigan State vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford -6½

A long road trip for a Michigan State team with a sophomore QB who didn't even begin the year as the starter. The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four against the Pac-12 and 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games on grass. They face a powerhouse Stanford team that is one of the best teams in the country. If you want to hang with this talented Michigan State defense you have to play the physical game in the trenches and Stanford has the power and muscle up front to do that. Stanford is on a sizzling 35-16-1 ATS run, plus the Cardinal are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games on grass. The Cardinal is 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games, plus 26-9-1 ATS in their last 36 games following a win of more than 20 points, so grab the West Coast team.

Dave Price

Baylor -16½

The Baylor Bears have been a terrific investment, going 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games overall. They were favored by 16.5 points or more in 10 games this season, and they covered the spread in nine of those. UCF performed well offensively this season with a 6.5 yards per play average, but the Bears are 6-0 ATS the last 2 seasons versus teams that average 6.25 yards per play or more. That shows you how explosive they are. The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 versus a team with a winning record. Baylor is nearly impossible to prepare for because there's no way to simulate its speed. Lay the points.