Rob Vinciletti
Bobcats vs. Clippers
Play: Under 196
Clippers Game. Rotation numbers 709/710 at 9:35 eastern. This game fits a tight totals system we use in the NBA That plays to the under for road dogs getting 5 or more points with 1 day of rest like Charlotte, that scored 90 or less in a road dog straight up and ats loss, vs an opponent like the LA. Clippers that come in off a spread loss of 14 or more points as a home favorite of 5 or more and also scored 90 or less points. These games have stayed under the total 15 of the last 18 times. Look for a lower scoring game.
Jack Jones
Baylor -16½
The Baylor Bears have been one of the most dominant teams in college football this season. Not only have they won 11 games, but they have done so in style. In fact, 10 of their 11 wins this season have come by double-digits, including nine by 20 or more points. They are outscoring the opposition by an average of 32.0 points per game on the season, which is one of the best marks in the nation, just behind Florida State.
While Baylor has been absolutely dominant this season and every bit as good as its 11-1 record, Central Florida is very fortunate to be 11-1 and nowhere near as good as its record. It has simply prevailed in almost all of its close games this season. In fact, the Knights have a whopping seven wins this season by a touchdown or less. That includes wins against inferior competition in Memphis (24-17) as a 10-point favorite, Houston (19-14) as a 13.5-point favorite, Temple (39-36) as a 17.5-point favorite, South Florida (23-20) as a 27.5-point favorite, and SMU (17-13) as a 14-point favorite.
Baylor has been winning behind the top offense in the entire country at 53.2 points per game and 624.2 yards per game. Byrce Petty had a Heisman Trophy-type year despite not making it to New York. He is completing 61.9 percent of his passes for 3,854 yards with 30 touchdowns and two interceptions, while also rushing for 11 scores. Petty is expected to get back a healthy Tevin Reese (33 receptions, 824 yards, 8 TD) for this game after he missed the final five games of the regular season with a wrist injury, which will only make this offense more dynamic.
While the Bears have been ridiculous offensively, the improvement on the other side of the ball has made the difference for this team. Baylor is giving up just 21.2 points and 343.7 yards per game to rank 17th in the country in total defense. It held seven opponents to 14 points or less this season.
The Bears are 9-1 against the spread versus good offense teams that average 425 or more yards per game over the last two seasons. Baylor is 6-0 against the spread after allowing 14 points or less this season. Baylor is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Bears are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games following a win, and 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games overall. Bet Baylor Wednesday.
Patrick Webb
Iowa +250
Full disclosure- I am a Hawkeye fan and got my start in this business writing about Iowa football, may not be as objective as I need to be for this game.
If Zach Mettenberger was playing in this game the line would make sense as Iowa has issues against the deep pass due to inferior safety play. But he isn't and freshman Anthony Jennings will likely need to rely on a stout rushing attack to carry the team offensively. Iowa is an elite defense versus the run and has allowed only 5 rushing TDs all season to go with 120 yards per game on the ground. Iowa's red zone defense allowed only 13 TDs on 26 red zone attempts while LSU scored 35 TDs on 54 red zone trips.
Iowa's offense is fairly balanced but relies on a zone blocking stretch play as the foundation for everything else. Iowa has three capable tailbacks that each bring a different skill set. Only Michigan State was able to stifle Iowa's rushing attack and although LSU is solid metrically defensively they aren't an elite run stopping unit. Iowa QB Jake Rudock has been an effective manager of the offense and is mobile enough to avoid killer sacks and turnovers.
If LSU can consistently keep Iowa off schedule then they should win this game going away, but Iowa should actually have an edge on both sides of the LOS in this game. If Iowa were to jump out to an early lead this game will likely be over at half-time.
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Nebraska vs. GeorgiaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Nebraska had an 8-4 season and 5-3 in the Big Ten, but it was a rough finish for them as they lost two of their last three games and the one they did win they squeaked out in overtime as they limp into this game. Georgia, in the SEC, had some big wins over #6 South Carolina and #6 LSU leading to a 5-3 SEC record and 8-4 overall. With that the teams are evenly matched, however the edge has to go to Georgia having played in the SEC and are more battle tested. Georgia is putting up 38 points a game and Nebraska is only putting up 32. Look for Georgia's offense to bull-dog their way through Nebraska leading to a 10+ point victory.
Teddy Covers
Iowa vs. Louisiana State
Pick: Louisiana State
Kirk Ferentz has always had a tough time recruiting top notch talent to play in Iowa City for the Hawkeyes, and it hasn’t gotten easier as the Hawkeyes have fallen into mediocrity (or worse) in recent seasons. Iowa hasn’t won more than eight games in a season since 2009.
This year they lost all three of their ‘step-up-in-class’ games this year by double digit margins; blasted by Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin. Their problem is plain and simple – talent, or the lack thereof; good enough to beat up on the dregs of the Big 10, but not good enough to compete with the elites.
And make no mistake about it – LSU is elite, even with frosh QB Anthony Jennings getting his first career start after NFL bound Zack Mettenberger got hurt in the season finale. Jennings certainly didn’t struggle in his first meaningful drive, leading LSU on a game winning 99 yard TD drive to beat Arkansas in their regular season finale. He’s going to be well prepared, with offensive coordinator Cam Cameron having 15 practices to get him up to speed.
Outside of the QB position, LSU has speed, size and talent mismatches all over the field. After losing their last two bowl games, including last year’s shoddy showing against Clemson, look for a focused Tigers squad to take care of business on New Year’s Day, winning this game by margin.
Aaron's Analysis
Stanford -6
The #5 Stanford Cardinal (11-2) take on the #4 Michigan State Spartans (12-1) in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day in Pasadena. The Cardinal are making their fourth straight BCS bowl appearance. They are coming off of a dominating 38-14 victory over conference powerhouse Arizona State in the Pac 12 Championship Game, outgaining them in the process 517-311. As for the Spartans, they've won nine straight games, capped off by a 34-24 upset victory over Ohio State in the Big 10 Championship Game. Both of these teams are similar, as both rely upon a solid ground game and dominating defense. Michigan State is ranked #4 in the nation in points allowed per game (12.7), while Stanford ranks #10 (18.6). The Cardinal have been running the ball well all season, ranking #23 in the nation with an average of 210.9 yards per game. Over the last five games, however, they've been doing even better, as that average jumps to 234.2. Over the last seven games, Cardinal back Tyler Gaffney has rushed for an average of 149.7 yards per game. On the season, Gaffney has compiled 1,618 rushing yards and an amazing 20 TDs to go along with another 88 yards and 1 TD receiving. He should be able to find success even versus the likes of the Michigan State rush defense. Despite allowing just 80.8 yards per game on the ground (#1), the Spartan rush defense has shown vulnerability in recent weeks. Over their last four games, they've given up an average of 164.8 yards per game, most recently allowing the Ohio State Buckeyes to rush for 273 yards. In addition to Gaffney, Anthony Wilkerson is also a competent back, as he has added 391 yards from scrimmage and 2 TDs this season. The Spartan defense will have to do without senior linebacker Max Bullough in this one due to suspension, which is a major loss. As for the Cardinal passing game, there is no better game manager out there than QB Keith Hogan. With that being said, it's worth mentioning that Hogan has only had to put up the ball in the air an average of 22.5 times per game. Over the past three games, Hogan has led the Cardinal to a decent 284 passing yards per game. On the season Hogan has compiled 2,487 yards passing with an accurate 61.4% completions, to go along with a TD to INT ratio of 20 to 9 and a quarterback rating of 154.1. His mobility poses a threat to defenses, as he has rushed for 314 yards and 2 TDs. Although the Spartans have a decent pass defense, Hogan should be able to put forth a solid effort here. It can be interpreted that the Spartan pass defense appears solid statistically because Big 10 teams are known to be rush first, pass second teams. Prior to playing teams rather inept at passing at the end of season such as Ohio State and Minnesota, the Spartans allowed an average of 221.7 yards passing in a three game cluster to the likes of Michigan, Nebraska and Northwestern. Although Hogan may not throw the ball as much as other Pac 12 quarterbacks, he is able to successfully sneak in a pass or two here and there. When he does, his favorite target is receiver Ty Montgomery. Montgomery has caught 58 passes for 937 yards and 10 TDs, to go along with another 159 yards and 2 TDs rushing. In addition, Devon Cajuste (27 catches for 591 yards and 5 TDs) and Michael Rector (12 catches for 387 yards and 3 TDs) are also highly capable. The Spartan offense is rather inept, ranking #9 in the Big 10 with an average of 384.6 total yards per game. With QB Connor Cook, the Spartans rank just #89 in the nation passing the ball with an average of 202.5 yards per game. Although it's fair to say that number closely resembles the 202.2 for Stanford, the Cardinal have nearly a thirty yard edge over the Spartans when it comes to rushing yards per game, at 210.9-182.2. The Cardinal defense has been very stingy versus the rush lately, allowing an average of just 64.4 yards per game over their last seven contests, while allowing a solid 91.2 for the season. Spartan 1,000 yard rusher Jeremy Langford should struggle versus the dominating defense of the Cardinal. An intangible to note is the apparent disparity between the Pac 12 and Big 10 conferences, as since 2001 the Pac 12 has a 10-1 record over the Big 10 in the Rose Bowl. Gaffney should be able to run the ball effectively here, and combined with the passing efforts of Hogan and Montgomery the Cardinal should be able to come away with a nice victory in this one.
River City Sharps
Michigan St +7
Michigan State comes off their Big 10 Championship to visit Stanford in the 100th Rose Bowl, which is the first trip there for the Spartans in 26 years. This is going to be a unique matchup as Stanford will try and mix it up offensively against one of the very best defensive units in the country. The Spartans will be without senior LB Max Bullough, who was suspended Wednesday for violating team rules. Bullough was third-team All-America and first-team All-Big Ten. Their defense is ranked number one in the nation at 248.2 yards allowed per game, including an FBS-low 80.8 on the ground. Stanford won their first Rose Bowl in 40 years when they beat Wisconsin 20-14 last year and now they are back for a repeat performance. Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. We think this will be a very tight affair come late in the fourth quarter and we like the Spartans catching the points.
Jimmy Boyd
Utah State -9
Air Force is a bad team, and I just don’t see them getting a lot of benefit from home court advantage in this matchup with the 10-2 Utah State Aggies. The Aggies have been sound across the board, averaging 76.3 points per game, while the defense is allowing a mere 64.5 points per game. The Aggies have played well on the road this season, posting a 2-1 record straight up and against the spread. The only road loss of the season for Utah State came against a very talented BYU team.
Air Force has been soft both on offense and defense this season. Their 73.6 points per game would not be that bad if the defense was playing better. The Falcons have given up an average of 70.3 points per game this season. Air Force is at a severe disadvantage on the boards in this game. Utah State is +12 in rebounding margin this season, while the Falcons come into this game at +1 against a much softer strength of schedule. The Falcons have also had turnover problems at times. Utah State on the other hand has averaged just 12 turnovers per game on the year.
Kyle Hunter
Central Florida vs. Baylor
Play: Over 70
The UCF Knights and Baylor Bears will do battle in the Fiesta Bowl on Wednesday night. UCF put up 38 points against a very good Louisville defense in their signature win of the year. Blake Bortles and the UCF offense should get a lot done in this one as well. Baylor's offense is a well-oiled machine. There will be plenty of snaps in this one, and it won't surprise me a bit if this one sails well past the posted total here. Take the over.
Art Aronson
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Vancouver Canucks
Play: Vancouver Canucks -152
A late West-Coast game on New Years day obviously favors the home side as far as scheduling, and especially against an Eastern Conference club. Tampa Bay has sputtered, losing two straight. While it's won three straight on the road, remember, that was following a dismal 0-5-2 stretch away from friendly confines (note that the Lightning are just 7-10/-2 units this year vs. teams with winning records). The Canucks will be in a foul mood tonight after their six-game home win streak was snapped in Monday's 4-3 shootout loss to the Flyers. Good news for Canucks fans tonight sees the return of rookie goaltender Eddie Lack, who fills in again for an injured Roberto Luongo; Lack is 4-0-1 with a minuscule 1.36 GAA over his last five starts (note that Vancouver is already 6-3/+3.1 units this year after allowing 4 goals or more in its previous contest, and 12-7/+2.1 units in all non-conference games). I this the home side is worth the price of admission in this particular match-up; consider laying the price.
Steve Janus
Iowa +7½
With LSU missing their leader and arguably their best player in senior quarterback Zach Mettenberger, I'm taking the Hawkeyes and the 7.5 points in the Outback Bowl on Wednesday. The Tigers backup quarterback is freshman Anthony Jennings, who is primarily a run-first quarterback. He ran 26 times in his lone start against Arkansas, while throwing it just 7 times. Iowa's defense is backed by three stud linebackers and ranked 16th in the country in run defense at 120.8 ypg. The Hawkeyes have thrived against running quarterbacks in the past and having extra time to prepare for Jennings will only make it that much easier. Iowa is 35-15 ATS in their last 50 games vs teams who average 200 or more rushing yards/game and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs teams who average 37 or more points/game.
Offensively the Hawkeyes are a bit challenged, but they do have a very strong offensive line and number of capable running backs who can move the chains. I look for sophomore quarterback Jake Rudock to make enough big plays in the passing game to allow Iowa to put points on the board. I definitely like Iowa to keep it within a touchdown and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won this game outright. Something to keep in mind is that LSU's defense allowed 32.4 points on an average of 424 yards of total offense on the road this season, including 4.9 yards per rush attempt.
Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is one of the best in the business at taking advantage of the extra time off and getting his team prepared for bowl games. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 January bowl games. LSU on the other hand has lost three of their last four bowl games outright, including a 24-24 loss to Clemson last year as a 6-point favorite.
Nick Parsons
Charlotte Bobcats vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers -11
Charlotte is just 14-18 overall this year. However, it's a truly lopsided 11-1-2 ATS on the road this season. LA is just 8-8 ATS at home.
After their lacklustre 107-88 setback vs. Phoenix on Monday, I expect the Clippers to come out with energy tonight and to put an end to the Bobcats unreal ATS road run.
The Bobcats do not come into this game with a lot of momentum, losers of three straight, most recently an 83-80 setback at Utah. Charlotte also contends with the fact that it has to hit the road again with a game tomorrow night in Portland.
With a day off tomorrow before a tough two-game road set in Dallas and San Antonio, the Clippers can focus on the task at hand and take care of business on their own floor.
Note that Charlotte is just 2-3 ATS this year after allowing 85 points or less and only 4-5 ATS in all non-conference games.
And note that LA is a perfect 6-0 ATS this year off an upset loss as a favorite, and a near perfect 5-1 ATS following a divisional contest.
The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to LA as the sharp wager in this one.
Bruce Marshall
Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets
Pick: Denver Nuggets
Denver is struggling a bit lately (no covers last four). Since ranking sixth in the NBA scoring with 104.0 points per game on Dec. 7, the Nuggets have been one of the league's lowest-scoring teams with a 90.6-point average. Their 40.4 FG % and 26.9% 3-point shooting were the NBA's worst marks over that span, and Denver has only reached 100 points twice in its last 10 games. But it's going to take a lot of adjustments on the Nuggets by the oddsmakers to get us interested in the skidding Sixers, who despite a win vs. the fading Lakers in their last outing have covered just 3 of their last 15 and had won SU just 4 of their last 21.
Jim Feist
Michigan State vs Stanford
Pick: Stanford
Your free pick for Wednesday, January 1st, 2014, comes in college football Michigan State and Stanford meet in the Rose Bowl. A long road trip for a Michigan State team with a sophomore QB who didn't even begin the year as the starter. The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four against the Pac-12 and 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games on grass. They face a powerhouse Stanford team that is one of the best teams in the country. If you want to hang with this talented Michigan State defense you have to play the physical game in the trenches and Stanford has the power and muscle up front to do that. Stanford is on a sizzling 35-16-1 ATS run, plus the Cardinal are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games on grass. Stanford also has a talented, balanced offense that is 22nd in the country and rushing yards while outscoring opponents by a 33-18.6 average. The Cardinal is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games. Stanford is 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games shutting down a great Wisconsin offense one team ago in the Rose Bowl, a 20-14 victory. They held the Badgers to 301 total yards and won the turnover battle 1-0, jumping out to a 14-0 lead and cruising. Wisconsin managed only four first downs in a scoreless second half. Stanford averaged 8.2 yards per play on first down in its Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin. Ini a sense it was more of a home game for Stanford, as the Rose Bowl was filled with fans wearing the schools' near-identical cardinal-and-white gear. Stanford coach David Shaw is terrific at preparing teams and making halftime adjustments. The Cardinal is 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games, plus 26-9-1 ATS in their last 36 games following a win of more than 20 points, so grab the West Coast team.
Charlie Scott
Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
Play: South Carolina +2
I've played against Wisconsin as a Favorite a lot this Season and Lost. I feel that SC is the better Team, with the Better defense and SEC tough. In the past in Football & Basketball whenever Big 10 Teams play good athletic Teams with speed, the speed wins out. South Carolina !
Michigan State vs. Stanford
Play: Over 42.5
Being a contrarian and this being the lowest posted total in all the Bowl games this Season, I'll take the OVER. With time to rest and prepare these 2 well Coached Teams will show some offense and trick Plays. PLAY OVER !
Central Florida vs. Baylor
Play: Central Florida +17
UCF is an underrated, well Coached Team with NFL Talent and a quality QB. Baylors Coach has had his name pop up for a lot of new Coaching vacancy's, and I don't think the Baylor kids will be focused enough to cover this big spread.