Will Rogers
Toronto vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
The Detroit Red Wings and the Toronto Maple Leafs will attempt to break the world record for attendance at a hockey game when they meet in the annual Winter Classic at the Big House on New Years Day. Both teams are currently tied with 45 points, but Detroit has lost eight of it's last 11 overall.
Here are my keys to the game:
1: Home Cookin' - It will be a home crowd for the Wings, with the venue of Michigan Stadium. The home team is 7-2 in the last nine games of this series, and while this will be the Leafs first outdoor game, the Wings have the experience of playing at Wrigley field in 2009 (They won 6-4).
2: Injuries - During their recent losing streak, the Wings were without Henrik Zetterberg and starting goaltender Jimmy Howard. Both players have returned to action, and will be available for this game. Zetterberg has a goal and two assists in two games since returning to action.
3: X-Factor - Toronto has allowed 32 power-play goals against this season (27th in the NHL). The Wings boast the league's 8th best penalty killing unit, with an 85% kill rate.
Andrew Lange
Bradley at Northern Iowa
Play: Northern Iowa -12
I don't like laying double-digits in a conference game any more than the next bettor but until Bradley can turn things around, the fade train rolls on. The Braves went 0-for-December both straight up and against the spread. And the competition was comprised of nothing but fellow mid-majors. Offensively, the Braves struggle to score (0.96 ppp), can't shoot from the outside (28.1% 3-pt.), and are turnover prone (20.2%). Last season, Bradley won one conference road game against bottom feeder Southern Illinois. Their losses were by margins of 15, 31 (Northern Iowa), 10, 34, 17, 20, 11, 8, and 13 (Northern Iowa). Northern Iowa has played a very tough schedule against the likes of Maryland, Iowa State, VCU, and Virginia. The Panthers took their lumps but it was great prep for Missouri Valley play. Of late, we've seen NIU score wins-by-margin at home against VCU and Iona. I'm not going to overthink this one: Bradley has been outmanned and outplayed for much of the season and this is one of their toughest opponents/venues. Chalk time.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chelsea -½ +109 over SOUTHAMPTON
Chelsea is coming off the back of a very impressive Christmas period, with victories against Liverpool and Swansea and a draw at league leaders Arsenal. They sit third in the table at the halfway point and second in the form table so getting an away victory at such a price is quite remarkable. What is perhaps most convincing isn’t Chelsea’s success over the Christmas period, but Southampton’s poor form guide.
The Saints have managed just one win in their last six games, that being against equally disappointing Cardiff City – who themselves are in a free fall down the Premier League table. This has seen Southampton drop down to ninth position after being as high as fourth just a few weeks back. Southampton’s impressive start was assisted by an incredibly kind opening to the season, combined with the third best injury record of the season (according to injuryleague.com). However, as their fixtures have toughened, the Saints have looked weaker and weaker. An interesting stat to point out is that whilst Southampton has looked impressive against sides below them in the table, out of the teams that are currently above them in the table, they have only taken 6 points from a possible 24. Recently we have seen top sides like Everton, Chelsea and Tottenham carve open Southampton so they seemed to be have been rather figured out as the season has gone on.
Chelsea’s strikers have poor conversion rates compared to the strikers at their rival teams (at Manchester City and Liverpool in particular). However, they have still managed to score around two goals a game despite an often defensive philosophy, with many goals coming from the midfield. It is also important to remember that the Christmas Calendar in England sees teams playing almost twice as regularly as usual in the Premier League. This means it will be Southampton’s fourth game in 10 days. Whilst Chelsea will have played a similar amount, its squad is much deeper and allows for much more player rotation than Southampton’s. Also, Chelsea has midweek game experience by competing in the Champions League, suggesting they will be more ready to adapt to this tight fixture schedule.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Georgia/ Nebraska Over 59.5: Last year 76 points were scored between this teams and I can see at least 70 in this one as well. All year the Bulldogs have been all about offense, while playing little defense and their games went on to average 67.6 ppg for the year. Georgia will be without Murray, but Hutson Mason played well in his lone start this year, completing 61.1% of his passes for 299 yards with 2 TDs and he will have had a month of practice to get ready for this one. The Huskers offense has been sporadic at time, but they can easily score points on a below average defense and the Dawgs certainly have that. I would not at all be surprised to see this one played in the 70s again.
2 UNIT PLAY
North Texas -6.5 over UNLV: The Rebels had a fine year, but I feel it will end on a sour note. The Rebels have snapped their long road losing streak this year, but their 3 road wins were vs teams with a combined 7-29 record on the year, while their two road losses this year were to bowl teams Minnesota and Fresno State. Neither of those games were close either. This is not a home game for North Texas, but it is played in the state of Texas and that gives the Mean Green a big edge. The Mean Green also have a huge edge on the defensive side of the ball, where they rank 26th in total defense and 19th vs the run, while allowing just 18.1 ppg, which is 8th in the nation. That compares to UNLV ranking 100th overall, 112th vs the run and 93rd in points allowed, giving up 31.5 ppg. The run defenses are key here, cause both teams run more than throw it and if UNLV is stopped in early down that will force 3rd and longs and they are 65th in the nation in converting 3rd downs. North Texas, on the other hand is 23rd, but they should have shorter distances to go on 3rd downs due to the porous run defense of the Rebels. UNLV had a nice year and made it to a bowl, but McCarney has the the experience over Hauck in the bowls, the Mean Green have big special teams and defenses edges, plus they get this game a mere 40 minutes or so from their campus. Too much for UNLV to overcome this year. North Texas by 10+ here.
1 UNIT PLAY
LSU/ Iowa Over 48.5: LSU has opened up this offense and it has led to 37 ppg. They have scored on some very tough SEC defenses and should be able to put up points on this tough Iowa defense. The Iowa offense is not that explosive, but LSU did allow 26 points or more in all 5 of their games away from home this year. This has the feel of a 31-24 type game.
Larry Ness
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Nevada at San Jose State
Prediction: Nevada
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San Jose St is 4-0 SU at home to open the current basketball season but can be had here by the Wolf Pack. Nevada is far from perfect (surely has its shortcomings) but the machups are pretty good. Guard Burton (22.5-3.8-3.8) is finding UTEP tarnsfer Pezez (12.4-4.3-2.9) a much better backcourt partner than the departed Malik Story (16.7). Then there is 6-8 swingman Evans (15.3-6.2), who has doubled his point-production from LY (7.5) and the 6-8 Huff (10.2-5.1).
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The Spartans have a 'keeper' in 6-6 freshman guard Muhammad (17.3), teamed in the backcourt with Wilson (10.1-4.3). SJSU's best two inside players are the 6-7 Williams (11.8-6.6) and the 6-9 Cunningham (8.1-7.1). However, Muhammad's shot-selection leaves a lot to be desired and Nevada's Evans is an athletic 'stopper' on defense.
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Nevada has already won at Cal Poly 60-58 as a 4 1/2-point dog, at San Francisco 92-90 as a 6 1.2-point dog and at UC-Davis 87-81 in OT as a 2 1/2-point road favorite plus covered as a 14-point dog at Cal, losing 92-84. This is a road game the Wolf Pack can win and that's EXACTLY what I expect them to do.
Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan St / Stanford Under 42.5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Two of best defenses in the country square off today in the Rose Bowl where points will be hard to come by. Michigan State leads the nation in total defense and rushing defense. The Stanford defense ranks 14th in total yards per game and is third in the nation against the run and on offense the Cardinal loves to pound the ground with running back Tyler Gaffney. Head Coach David Shaw's conservative style has also helped Stanford go under in seven straight games against teams with a winning record and overall the Cardinal has gone under in seven of its last nine bowl games. Today will be no different. Go under.
Bob BalfeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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North Texas -6.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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UNLV has a good running back and quarterback, but other than that this is not a good football team. North Texas is playing in a virtual home game today and I believe their defense is just going to be too much for this Rebels team. I am not a big fan of the Mountain West Conference and furthermore UNLV was not even that impressive in it this year. As long as the Mean Green are not too comfortable from being around local friends and family all week I think they should run away with this one. Take North Texas
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Central Florida vs BaylorFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Baylor -16.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Speed Wins Bowl Games and Baylor has speed to spare. Central Florida has been a good team this season but they can't matchup with a healthy Baylor team. Look for Baylor to get out to an early lead in this one and win by at least 30 points.
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UNLV VS NORTH TEXASFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: UNLV +6.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It’s the first day of a brand new year, and I’m already about to see something that I never thought I would see. Specifically, that is UNLV playing football in a January 1st bowl game. The fact it’s not one of the majors doesn’t matter. It’s New Year’s Day and UNLV is playing football. That’s amazing.
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The same thing is probably being said by fans of North Texas, the opponent for the Rebels in today’s Heart of Dallas Bowl. The Mean Green have a clear site advantage with the game being played in what amounts to their backyard. That’s not the only edge owned by North Texas in this game.
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If I’m going on overall season numbers, I’m probably siding with the favorite here. Therefore, I’m certainly not going to be shocked if North Texas ends up winning this football game. But there are some indicators that point to UNLV, and the Rebels are also getting enough points to at least give them a decent shot at covering the spread.
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Even though there’s lots of time between the end of the regular season and a January 1 bowl, late momentum often carries forward to the bowls. There’s no arguing that UNLV was playing its best football late. The convincing win in adverse conditions at Air Force was impressive and the Rebels were even better in demolishing San Diego State in their finale.
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The Rebels were also playing well prior to the 2-0 conclusion to the regular season. Fact is, they were 7-3 after opening 0-2. The last two losses could have been wins. They probably should have beaten Utah State and I’ll excuse the loss to San Jose in what was a big time dead spot.
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As for North Texas, Dan McCarney has done an outstanding job with this team. They roll into this bowl on a 6-1 roll and I’m just dismissing the one loss to UTSA as one of those games. Running the football on this team has been very tough and the Mean Green cranked out some big offensive games down the stretch as well.
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There is one pretty good bowl angle in play here. Teams that go into their bowl having scored 40+ points in each of the final two regular season games are a little better than 60% ATS, and that goes back more than two decades. UNLV fits that angle, and I do feel they have the potential to put up some pretty good offensive stats today.
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This is not a game I can say I feel super confident about, as I’ve been shaky in this year’s bowls and I’m pretty sure we’ll see a good effort out of North Texas here. But there’s some room for error with the points in play and the prep reports for the Rebels have been positive. I think there’s enough to go ahead and side with UNLV plus the points today.
Chris Jordan
As much as it pains me to say it, my complimentary winner in the Heart of Dallas Bowl is going to be the North Texas Mean Green against the UNLV Rebels, in one of the first two kickoffs for New Year's Day.
We have two teams who have enjoyed resurrection in this one, as North Texas has been rebuilt into an 8-4 team and will now play in its sixth bowl game ever, and first since 2004, while UNLV (7-5) will be playing in its fourth bowl game in school history, returning to the postseason after three straight 2-win seasons. I watched the Rebels do their thing all season, attending every home game, and seeing every road game either on TV or via webcast. And as competitive as this team is, it doesn't seem to get it done against the better compeitition.
UNLV won the games it was supposed to and showed up in the season finale against San Diego State, which simply laid an egg in Las Vegas. North Texas, meanwhile, played an unusually tough schedule this season and responded well in facing six bowl teams and beating three of them. I particularly have been impressed with running Back Brandin Byrd, who rumbled for 1,023 yards and 11 touchdowns during the regular season, and I personally think will have a huge day against UNLV’s 110th ranked run defense that looked horrendous against the same Ka'Deem Carey you were all impressed by yesterday.
The Rebels gave up 221.8 rushing yards per game, and Byrd finished the season by rushing for more than 200 yards in two of his last three games. When North Texas turns to its rushing attack, you're going to see a ball-controlled offense and time management work in its favor. The Mean Green also boasts a stout defense that finished 9th in the nation in allowing a mere 18.1 points per game.
I admit that on paper, my Rebels are evenly matched with North Texas. But on the field my biggest fear for Rebels coach Bobby Hauck is his troops will be overwhelmed by a physically superior squad. Lay the points in this one, as the Rebels fall by nine or 10.
2♦ NORTH TEXAS
Jeff Benton
Your New Year's Day freebie is for the points to add up when Nebraska and Georgia do battle in a bowl game for the second year in a row.
Last season these schools met in the Capital One Citrus Bowl they combined for a rather large 76 points as the Over 62 points was easily shattered.
Deja Vu anyone?
Have to play the Over again today, as Georgia both scored and gave up more than their fair share of points. The Bulldogs played their last 3 games of the year, and 9 of their 12 overall Over the total.
Nebraska meanwhile was able to play Overs in 2 of their final 3 games on the campaign, going Over the total against two of the conferences better defensive teams in Iowa and Michigan State.
Hutson Mason takes over the reins at quarterback for Mark Richt's team, and while he is no Aaron Murray, Mason looked very efficient in UGa's comeback win against Georgia Tech.
Expect the points to add up between these teams for the second year in a row.
4♦ NEBRASKA-GEORGIA OVER
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Charlotte Bobcats in NBA action Wednesday night.
Don't normally like laying this many points in a professional basketball game, but this is more of a statement game for the Clips than anything else... a statement that they're pissed about getting steamrolled at home the other day by the Phoenix Suns... and I mean steamrolled.
They never led in the game and actually trailed at one point by 32 points. The no-name Suns made Los Angeles look like the no-name Clippers. And again, that's the main reason I like them in this spot tonight.
The Clips are clearly better than the Bobcats from top top bottom, but many will shy away from Los Angeles because of their recent struggles (dropping 3 of their last 4) and the fact Charlotte hasn't lost a game by double digits since a 99-74 home loss to Indiana back on November 27.
Too many things don't add up here, which gives me all the more reason to believe I'm onto something. Take the Clippers to beat Charlotte by at last 15 as your free play of the day.
4♦ L.A. CLIPPERS
Scott Delaney
My free play for New Year's Day is on the Over in the Rose Bowl, as I think Michigan State and Stanford will find their way over the posted 42 points in Pasadena, California.
Yes, I'm well aware that Michigan State boasts the top-ranked defense in college football and allows a mere 80.8 yards rushing a game, and I now Stanford's defense has intercepted 12 passes and is the de facto home team by playing in its home state. But I also realize that each time is not going to try to out-stop one another, they're both going to try to be the offensive breakthrough in this game.
Stanford's offense, albeit built for power, has all the components to be a speedy unit that can open things up behind the trifecta of quarterback Kevin Hogan, wide receiver Ty Montgomery and running back Tyler Gaffney. Once the Cardinal finds its groove, there really is no stopping its momentum.
As for the Spartans, their offensive prowess centers around tailback Jeremy Langford. As he goes, so goes Michigan State, but that's not to take anything away from Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook, who has a knack for finding the passing lanes and directing traffic north and south when the tempo is right.
I know both come into the Granddaddy of them all on a bevy of 'under' runs, but this is the lowest total Stanford has seen, and Michigan State is going to pressed into a high-scoring game. Play this one high.
5♦ Michigan State/Stanford Over
Brad Wilton
While you must respect teams out of the SEC, my feeling is LSU is laying a few points too many with starting quarterback Zach Mettenberger watching this one from the sidelines. Mettenberger went down in the season finale against Arkansas, and even though freshman Anthony Jennings has had a month to prepare, facing live action just isn't the same as practice.
Iowa closed the year with 3 straight wins, and they did cover 2 of 3 this season when listed as the underdog. Coach Kirk Ferentz is also on a 6-1 spread run the last 7 times he has taken Iowa to a bowl game.
The same cannot be said for Les Miles' squad, as the Bayou Bengals have lost both straight up and against the spread in their last pair of bowl games, and 3 of their last 4 overall.
Just cannot lay this amount of points with a freshman QB making his first start.
Take Iowa plus the points.
2♦ IOWA
Sean Michaels
I have no problem laying the big number with Baylor (-17) in the Fiesta Bowl tonight against Central Florida, a team that hasn't taken on anyone this season that has the offensive explosiveness and sheer athleticism that the Bears will bring to the field in Glendale, Arizona.
What is really scary about this Baylor team that's averaging 53.3 points a game is that the Bears are the healthiest they've been since October. Running backs Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin were really banged up but with a month to recover since beating Texas in late November, they're primed to go. And one of quarterback Bryce Petty's favorite targets, speedster Tevin Reese, is also returning from a dislocated wrist.
Here's the bottom line: If Central Florida couldn't stop Temple and Louisville from scoring on their defense at will, how are they going to stop the Bears? And it's not like the Knights played great ball down the stretch as they struggled to beat SMU, South Florida, Houston and Temple in the season's final month.
2♦ BAYLOR