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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Utah JazzFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This number is low because Utah has dropped five of its last six. Those defeats, though, have come against the Warriors, Heat, Pacers and the last two to the Clippers. These teams are a combined 47 games above .500. Now the Jazz drop way down in class hosting a Timberwolves club and their short-handed backcourt. Utah is a strong home team. The Jazz have covered 61 percent of their home contests this season. Minnesota has lost three in a row on the road. The Timberwolves have lost and failed to cover during their past five visits to Salt Lake City. Kevin Love continues to struggle with his shot making just 35.8 percent from the floor. He shot less than 30 percent from the floor in three games against Utah last season when he was fully healthy. The Timberwolves need Love because their backcourt is battered. Brandon Roy and Chase Budinger are out long-term following knee surgeries and Ricky Rubio won't play either due to a bad back. Utah opened 9-1 at home. But the Jazz have lost their last three home matchups falling to the Clippers, Warriors and Grizzlies. Those three teams are all far superior to the Timberwolves. The Jazz should be primed for a strong home effort in a stop-the-pain game. The Jazz have a tall frontcourt, Love has yet to regain his form and Minnesota's backcourt injuries offset Utah being without its starting point guard, Mo Williams. The spread is low enough to back a strong home team against an inferior opponent.
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L.A. Clippers vs. Golden State
Pick: Golden StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I successfully played against the Clippers last night, while also nailing the "under" in the same game. I'm now 29-10 my last 39 NBA, going 24-8 my last 32.
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Off a loss and playing with "revenge" from an earlier loss, many will likely look to back the Clippers here. However, I feel that the Warriors, who last played on 12/29 and who are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three, are providing some value.
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Winning 15 games in a row isn't easy. It requires "bringing it," every single night. When on such a streak, a team gets some added adrenaline. However, when that streak comes to an end, there can be a bit of a crash. Immediately bouncing back isn't always as easy as many assume.
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The Clippers are only 2-4 ATS when playing on the back to back days. On the other hand, the Warriors are 3-0 SU/ATS when playing with three or more day's rest.
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Note that the Clippers are also now playing their fifth game in seven nights and that they've got a Friday date with the rival Lakers on deck.
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The Warriors have taken two of the last three meetings, all of those at LA. They also won by seven in the most recent meeting here at Oakland. Their home record (10-4) is identical to LA's road record and they've got the schedule in their favor. Points are a bonus.
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Brooklyn vs. Oklahoma City
Pick: BrooklynFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Under new head coach P. J. Carlesimo, the Nets will look to avenge a 6-point loss suffered a month ago in Brooklyn when they meet the Thunder in Oklahoma CIty Wednesday evening. The Nets take the floor sporting a sharp 16-9 ATS mark with revenge in this series, including 8-3 ATS as a visitor. With Brooklyn off a 31-point loss, and the Thunder off an 18-point win, the points become the play here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Brooklyn.
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San Francisco vs. Santa Clara
Pick: Santa ClaraFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After a quick break from the gate, USF lost momentum in mid-to-late December as Rex Walters’ bench proved something of a liability. Losses in that stretch at UOP and Nevada suggest the Dons might have similar problems at old Bay Area Jesuit rival Santa Clara, which will be eager to post its first WCC win after recording the big donut in conference play during its injury and suspension-marred 2011-12 campaign. Return to active duty of 6-9 Canadian PF Marc Trasolini (16 ppg; knee injury last season) has been a key factor in Broncos’ 11-3 SU record into New Year's, which included SCU making Duke sweat and leading the Blue Devils in the second half last Saturday at Durham. Broncos have extended several margins already at Leavey Center and will not take it easy on disliked local rival.
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L.A. Clippers vs. Golden State
Pick: Golden State
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This is a truly miserable spot for the LA Clippers. Their franchise record 17 game winning streak was snapped in Denver last night in a 14 point defeat, the type of game that showed how worn down LA is right now. They’ve got a huge showdown with the LA Lakers on tap for Friday Night.
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In between, they’ve got to travel from altitude on the second night of back-2-backs to face off against a surging Warriors team that has been undervalued by the betting markets all year; a top 3 team in terms of profitability and ATS results so far this season. Don’t expect the Clippers best effort here.
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Meanwhile, Golden State has proven that they can beat the Clippers – they handed LA a loss at the Staples Center as 8.5 point dogs back in November in the lone previous meeting between these two teams. The Warriors are, by a wide margin, the better of these two squads on the boards. The Warriors defense has improved by leaps and bounds from last year. Point guard Stephen Curry: “We are a hundred times better defensively than we were last year, and that's why our record reflects that.”
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Golden State is 9-2 SU in their last eleven at home; one of those losses coming in OT against the Lakers when Golden State played great basketball throughout – a dominant and undervalued team on this floor. Golden State’s All Stars – Stephen Curry and David Lee – match up well with the Clippers All Star duo of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. And frankly, despite the Clippers current 3.5 game lead in the Pacific division, don’t be shocked if it’s the Warriors, not the Clippers, who wins this division once April runs around. Wrong team favored here! Take the Warriors.
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UTEP +11FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With as slow as Colorado State plays and as low scoring of a game as this may be, there's just too much value to these points with a decent UTEP team. Larry Eustachy has done a terrific job in his first year as CSU coach after eight years at Southern Mississippi, but they're still Tim Miles players. What I like here is that CSU's next game is against St. Bonaventure (a tougher game) and the fact that CSU beat UTEP in El Paso last year by three, so UTEP knows they can play with these guys. CSU is experienced, but small, and do most of their damage inside, and having said that UTEP has a significant size advantage with Bohanan and Washburn. With the schedule UTEP has played, they're battle tested enough to keep this game within the number. CSU has been playing terrific defense, but has not been creating a ton of turnovers, so the Miners' should get their looks. Just too much value to pass up, as clearly there's a few points built into this because of CSU's early season success.
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4 UNIT PLAY
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Colorado State/ UTEP Over 126.5: (Added) Most of the time I do believe that a home team will get a game at the pace they like and I feel that Colorado State will get that wish in this one. The Rams want to put up 70+ points each time out and they have been doing that this year, averaging 73.1 ppg overall and 79.4 ppg at home. The Rams shoot well at home hitting 48.7% of their shots overall, 37.7% from long range and 77.2% from the charity stripe. They should definitely put up some solid numbers in this one vs a UTEP squad that allows 70.5 ppg in all games away from home. The Miners have struggled to score away from home, averaging 52.5 ppg, but they should be good for more than that in an uptempo game and CSU does allow 63.8 ppg at home. I really feel that the Rams can hit the 70 point mark in this one, while their defense allows the Miners to post 60+ of their own.
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3 UNIT PLAYS
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Illinois -2 over PURDUE: I have been following Illinois closely this year and they have been a winner for me a few times and I will expect them to do it again. The Illini are a solid team and are one of the best teams in a loaded big 10, while Purdue is not. Purdue is 6-6 on the year and their best win was at Clemson, but they also lost at Eastern Michigan as 10.5 favs. In their last 2 home games vs William and Mary and Ball State they were 11.5 points faves and 15 point faves and didn't cover either. Actually Purdue has lost 5 straight ATS. They have lost 4 games outright this year when installed as faves. I know there a dog he but I feel they have been overvalued at times this year and this is one of those spots. Illinois is 12-1 and their resume includes a road win at Gonzaga and a 17 points win vs a very tough Butler squad on a neutral court. Illinois is the far better team and will be in the Big 10 race all year, while Purdue will be fighting to stay out of the Big 10 basement. Illinois pulls away late for an easy win.
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Ohio State/ Nebraska Under 126: The only shot that Nebraska has at winning this one is to slow the pace down and i expect them to do just that. Nebraska averages just 61.7 ppg overall and 56.3 ppg on the road and they just don't have the offense to keep up with OSU in this one, so a slow pace is needed. Last year these teams met twice and Nebraska was held in the 40s both times and it could happen again vs an OSU team that allows just 54.8 ppg on 34.7% shooting at home on the year. The Buckeyes do score 80.6 ppg at home, but Nebraska has yet to allow more than 75 points in a game this year and they have allowed just 63.7 ppg on the road. They can play some defense. I expect the Buckeyes to still be able to score their points, but in a slower paced game they should be held to just 70 points, while Nebraska puts up no more than 50.
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Xavier -1.5 over WAKE FOREST: The Musketeers are off a rough loss at Tennessee, in which they scored just 47 points. I expect them to bounce back in this one. Wake Forest is off to a decent 6-5 start, but really aren't playing all that well. They did have easy wins of NC Greensboro and Furman of late, but have also lost home to Nebraska and Seton Hall and barley beat William & Mary on their home floor as well. Xavier did have a shocking home loss to Wofford, but they have also beaten Drake, Purdue and Drexel away from home and Kent State at home. Xavier has scored 65.5 ppg and have allowed just 60.9 ppg vs a tough schedule than Wake, who has averaged 70.4 ppg and allowed 69.4 ppg on the year. I feel that Xavier has a big edge on the defensive end and it will be that defense that keeps Wake from keeping this one close.
SPORTS WAGERS
Florida -14 -over Louisville
The Gators offense runs exclusively through tailback Mike Gillislee and the legs of quarterback Jeff Driskel and when they played tough defenses they had trouble moving the chains. The Cardinals don’t qualify as such, as they’ve been awful defending the rush because of a weak defensive line that can’t move anyone out of the way. Louisville is ill-suited to capitalize on the weaknesses of the Gators' one-dimensional offense. By the third quarter the Cardinals defense will be like a beaten up fighter in the 10th round of a prize fight and you can expect Florida to plow through Louisville like they’re standing still.
As for the Cardinals offense, Teddy Bridgewater is good but he’s also banged up and Florida’s stout passing defense (the best in the country) will render the Cardinals offense one-dimensional with ease. This matchup also pits one of the country's worst all-around special teams against arguably the nation's best. Louisville has a quality place-kicker but otherwise this is the biggest special-teams mismatches of the bowl season. Cardinals are in for a long, long day.
Minnesota +137 over UTAH
The Jazz are regressing both offensively and defensively. They’ve lost by double digits in six of their past eight games. Utah’s 25th ranked defense allowed the Pacers to reach triple digits for the first time in nearly a month and have permitted at least nine three-pointers in their last four games. The offense hasn't been any much better, failing to score 90 points in five of its past six losses.
Ricky Rubio is out again but he was only averaging about 18 minutes a game and the Timberwolves are deep enough to compensate. The T-Wolves have a big edge in both rebounding and defense and when you dominate those two phases of the game, you clearly have a great shot at winning. The T-Wolves have just two wins in six games but they’ve played a tough slate and should be in a great position to beat this reeling host.
Dave Price
Milwaukee Bucks +5
The Spurs are being overvalued on the road where they have lost 4 of their last 5 both SU and ATS. Oddsmakers have overreacted to San Antonio's 104-73 win over the Nets. The Spurs are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The Bucks enter off a loss on the road but have blowout wins over the Nets and Heat in their last 2 home games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. It is also worth noting that the Spurs are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Milwaukee. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander
Phoenix Suns -4
Off last nights big win over the Lakers and with the Thunder and Spurs on deck, the 76ers will look right past a Suns team they have defeated 4 straight times. The Suns will be the fresher team, and they'll be hungry to end a six-game losing streak as well as their four-game slide versus Philly. The 76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without a day of rest. The Suns are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take Phoenix.
Steve Janus
Mavericks +10.5
The Mavericks are coming off a 103-94 win on Tuesday against the Wizards, snapping a six-game losing streak. Even though Dallas is in a difficult spot playing the second game of a back-to-back road set, I believe oddsmakers have overvalued Miami due to their 110-95 win over the Mavericks in Dallas back on Dec. 20. Since that game the Mavs have got back All-Star power forward Dirk Nowitzki and it's only a matter of time before this team starts to come together. You also have to take into consideration that the Heat are not playing that well right now. They come in having lost two of three and were very fortunate to pull out an overtime win at Orlando their last time out. Dallas is 30-13 ATS in road games vs good offensive teams (scoring 99+ points/game) over the last 3 seasons.
Jack Jones
Dallas Mavericks +10.5
The Dallas Mavericks are showing excellent value as a double-digit underdog to the Miami Heat tonight. They are undervalued due to losing six of their last seven games overall, but all six of those losses came to the top playoff contenders in the Heat, Grizzlies, Thunder, Nuggets and Spurs (twice).
Dallas certainly wants revenge from its 95-110 home loss to the Heat on December 20th. It catches the Heat playing their worst basketball of the season coming in. They have lost two out of their last three to Detroit (99-109) as a 6-point favorite, and to Milwaukee (85-104) as a 4-point favorite. Their only win during this stretch came in overtime against Orlando (112-110) as a 9.5-point favorite.
The Mavericks are 30-13 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Dallas is 42-23 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The road team is 15-4-2 ATS in the last 21 meetings in this series. Dallas is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 trips to Miami. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.
Nelly
Miami Heat - over Dallas Mavericks
Miami has struggled in recent games closing the year with two losses and a narrow overtime win but the Heat closed December with four straight road games. Tonight they take on a slumping Mavericks team that is an ugly 13-19 on the season, just two seasons removed from the championship against the Heat. Dallas lost six in a row before getting a narrow win at Washington yesterday. Dallas is playing a fifth game in seven days for a very challenging stretch and this is a team that is just 5-13 on the road. Dallas has been out-scored by nearly nine points per game in road games while Miami is a dominant 14-2 at home, with an average margin of victory of more than 10 points. These teams met just two weeks ago with Miami winning by 15 in Dallas, dominating the rebounding and winning easily despite 20 turnovers. Since losing in the NBA Finals to Dallas, Miami has won all three meetings with Dallas by double-digits including winning by 21 in the lone meeting in Miami and the Heat should be focused and in a much better scheduling situation.
Harry Bondi
GOLDEN STATE (+1.5) over LA Clippers
We have picked our spots and made a nice profit going with Golden State this year, as they have covered 19 of their 30 games with a 10-5 home record and a 9-1 ATS record against teams with a winning record. The Clippers' amazing 15-game winning streak was snapped yesterday and we expect a major letdown here tonight, especially since they have struggled (2-4 ATS) this season when playing on the back to back days. The Warriors, meanwhile, have been off since Saturday night, so not only are we taking the better defensive team at home getting points, but we also have the more rested team. Take the short number. It's a wrong-way favorite.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Orlando/ Chicago Under 185: The Magic have not played great defense this year and at home they have allowed 98 ppg, but Chicago is not the kind of team that can take advantage. The Bulls really play a slow down game and it shows as they have averaged just 92 ppg on the year. They are not a great shooting team either as they have hit just 43.5% of their shots. Thankfully for the Bulls they have a defense that has allowed just 91.5 ppg on the year or this team would probably have a losing record at this time of year. The Bulls are up against an Orlando squad that has averaged just 93.3 ppg overall and they have put up just 82.4 ppg in their last 5 games vs Chicago. Neither team has the offense to play an up tempo game and that have both teams playing this one in the 80's.
Houston/ New Orleans Over 203: New Orleans is not really an uptempo team, but they have been a solid scoring team on the road, putting up 95.7 ppg. Now in the pace of game that they will be in tonight they clearly have a shot at putting up more than 96 points in this one. Houston loves to play the uptempo game and they do allow 102 ppg because of that at home this year. I feel that New Orleans can get 99+ in this one. The New Orleans defense is not all that great as they have allowed 100.1 ppg on the road. They clearly can allow more than that in this one vs a Houston squad that scores 108.2 ppg on their home floor. Rocket home games have averaged 211 ppg this year and this one should fall close to that.