BRYAN POWER
San Jose Sharks @ Anaheim Mighty Ducks
PICK: San Jose Sharks
I cashed on this page yday w/ the Over on Houston/Lakers in NBA. Here I see some pretty decent value on the visiting Sharks, who will be taking the ice w/ revenge on their minds for a stunning 3-2 home loss as -240 favorites last week. Since that time, they have split a home & home w/ Vancouver as each team won on the road. Anaheim has just 10 wins on the season. Three of those have come against San Jose. These head to head results are abnormal as last week's win is the Ducks' only victory in the last seven games. They have the second fewest points in the league, just one ahead of Columbus. Anaheim ranks in the bottom five in both goals scored and goals allowed per game. They have not scored on the power play for four consecutive games and G Hiller has lost five of six starts thanks to a 3.80 GAA. The Sharks have earned a point in eight of their last nine games, so they are playing well. They will not underestimate their lesser opponent this time out and should have little difficulty picking up the two points.
MTi Sports
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are 10-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they allowed at least 55% from the field and the Warriors are 0-4 ATS (-9.8 ppg) on the road after a loss in which Stephen Curry was not the Warriors' high scorer. Consider laying the points.
WUNDERDOG
West Virginia at Rutgers
Pick: West Virginia -3
Seems like once a year the Rutgers Scarlet Knights rise up and do something unexpected. That happened in their second to the last game, an improbable overtime win vs. Florida. They followed it up with a loss vs. South Florida to leave this team at 7-6 for the season. West Virginia lost by 19 to Seton Hall their last time out and that looked like a terrible loss until the Hall whacked Uconn by a similar margin last night. The Mountaineers have been tough off a loss where they are 5-0 ATS after their last five. Rutgers has been dreadful on their homecourt since their teams have been running bad the past several years and are just 1-8 ATS here in their last nine. Play on West Virginia in this one.
Steve Janus
Chicago Bulls -6
I believe the Bulls are showing some excellent value as 6-point favorite at Detroit. The Pistons are getting plenty of respect after back-to-back outright wins over Indiana and Orlando. Detroit beat the Pacers 96-88 as a 2.5-point dog, and rolled past the Magic 89-78 as a 5-point underdog.
Chicago rallied for a huge 4th quarter win over the Hawks last night. While some might see that as a sign to jump on the Pistons. Chicago is one of the few teams in the league who will put out maximum effort regardless of when or who they are playing.
Detroit shout over 47% from the field in each of their last two wins, which is a big reason why I like the Bulls in this one. Chicago is holding opponents to just 42% on the season. Look for the Bulls defensive intensity to be the difference in this game.
Chicago is 28-14 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons and 30-16 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons, while the Pistons are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. B
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Northern Iowa -6
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and further fueled by losing both meetings with Indiana State last season, expect Northern Iowa to get the job done at home this evening.
The Panthers don't want to fall to 0-3 in MVC play and can easily cover this number if they play the way they are capable of. Indiana State is 10-3 wins some good wins but fell by 15 points to Drake on the road in their conference opener a week ago. That loss really shows how big home-court advantage is in this league.
The Panthers have often risen to the occasion when needing a big win. This team plays with extreme heart and that's a big reason why they are an impressive 26-11 ATS in their last 37 games against good teams that outscore the opposition by an average of 4 points or more per game. It's also worth noting the Panthers are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games vs. a team with a winning percentage greater than .600. The Sycamores, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. We'll lay the points.
Hollywood Sports
Rockets at Clippers
Prediction: Under
Rather than establishing a grand theory regarding how teams will play in the busy abbreviated schedule in this strike shortened season, this offers another opportunity to analyze team trends to identify how specific teams respond to specific situations an effort to expose an underlying personality regarding how teams react to a various set of challenges. In this instance, Houston (2-3) comes off a 108-99 loss in the Staples Center to the Lakers last night as a 7.5-point underdog -- and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total played without a day of rest. The Rockets also have also played 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 100 points in their last contest. And Houston has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after point spread loss. The Clippers (2-2) come off a 93-88 win over Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday -- and they have now played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams from the Western Conference. The Clippers have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. And in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in the Staples Center, the game finished Under the Total in each of those occasions. Look for the sixth straight Under tonight.
Andre Gomes
Boston Celtics -13
With Deron Williams, Brook Lopez and Kris Humphries out, New Jersey will have to play a lineup of rookie Marshon Brooks, Sundiata Gaines, Damion James, Sheldon Williams and Mehmet Okur, with a bench with Jordan Farmar, Shawne Williams, Johan Petro and DeShawn Stevenson! According to basketballvalue.com, the Nets without Deron + Humphries have brutal numbers on the offensive efficiency: with Deron 94.5 off, without Deron 91.97 off; with Humphries: 102.68 off, without Humphries 75.51 off! The only good thing that the Nets are capable of doing well offensively is to grab offensive boards, but Humphries is the key piece in doing that and he will be out for this contest! New Jersey has been set up to play half court basketball and they are really dead last in transition efficiency with just 0.82 PPP! Besides the offensive boards, the only thing this team can do averagely are the P&R Ball Handler plays with 0.88 PPP, but Deron Williams is out for this contest! So, Boston will very easily stop their offense!
On the other side, the well oiled Boston offensive machine won't have problems in scoring. New Jersey is the second worst defensive team in the league and they are coming from a game against the struggling offense of Indiana, were they shot 52.6% FG! On this case, the bench battle may be relevant for a potential backdoor cover. However, note that Boston is well rested for this contest and they won't play tomorrow! The 2nd unit of the Celtics is quite underrated with Brandon Bass, Marquis Daniels, Avery Bradley, who is outstanding on ball defender, and the rookie Greg Stiemsma!
Therefore, I expect a clear blowout for the Celtics on this game, while completely shutting out the Nets offense, which will struggle huge time tonight. So, I'll be taking the Celtics in here for a very easy win.
WUNDERDOG
Memphis at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota -3.5
Sooner or later the Minnesota Timberwolves have to get better. Years at or near the bottom of the league paying off in the draft as this team builds towards respectability and appear to be coming of age with new talent in the fold. They have already beaten last year's champ, Dallas, here and took out San Antonio here as well in their last game. They have also had close calls to NBA top tier teams in Oklahoma City and the star-studded Miami heat, which spells out a team on the uptick. Memphis looked great at the end of last year, but the injury bug is biting again with Zach Randolph likely sidelined for this one, and now find themselves at 2-3. The T-Wolves are 5-0 ATS while Memphis now sputtering on the road at 0-5 ATS in their last five. Play on Minnesota.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Clemson/ West Virginia over 62.5: Points, points and more points. That should be the theme tonight. You have two offensive minded coaches with plenty of firepower at their disposal, going up against two mediocre defenses. Tajh Boyd leads Clemson's fast-paced offense, and is one of two dynamic quarterbacks in this game. Boyd and West Virginia's Geno Smith combined to throw for 7,556 yards and 56 touchdowns - the edge in yardage going to Smith with Boyd tossing six more TD passes. Smith, a Miami-area native, has already broken single-season school records for attempts (483), completions (314) and total passing yards (3,978) with one game remaining and let's remember that Holgorsen's last 2 stops were at Oklahoma State and Houston and we know what those offenses have done. Tahj Boyd has been superb as well this year as he has completed 60.5 percent of his passes this season, for 3,578 yards, with 31 TDs. Two issues for both teams has been tackling in space defending mobile quarterbacks. While Boyd and Smith aren’t the quickest guys in the world, they can scramble out of the pocket. Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins, Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey are all incredibly elusive—Austin and Watkins are both in the Top 5 nationally in all-purpose yards. With both teams relying so heavily on the pass, those receivers will get a lot of action. This should be a very exciting game with little defense. I expect around 70 points here as we go with the Over.
ROCKETMAN
Xavier @ La Salle
Play: Xavier -2.5
Xavier is 30-5 SU against conference opponents the past 3 years. Xavier is 19-4 SU overall vs La Salle since 1997. Musketeers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. Musketeers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Musketeers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Musketeers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic 10. Musketeers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games. Explorers are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Explorers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We'll recommend a small play on Xavier tonight!
Dave Price
1 Unit Denver Nuggets -11.5
The Kings lost by 17 in Memphis last night and will have a tough time keeping this one close against a rested Denver squad. The Kings are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest while the Nuggets are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games when playing with 1 day of rest. The Nuggets are an impressive 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games versus teams with losing records. Take the Nuggets.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
BOSTON -13 over New Jersey: The Nets are one of the worst teams in the NBA this year at 1-5. They have been outscored by 13.9 ppg overall and 13 ppg in their 3 road losses this year. The Celtics have shaken off an 0-3 start to win 3 in a row. They are 2-0 at home but haven't really blown anyone out yet. Boston had many defensive problems in their first 3 games, but have allowed just 87.6 ppg in their 3 games since and that isn't good new for the offensively challenged Nets,who have averaged just 85.3 ppg on 38.4% shooting this year. Boston has averaged 98 ppg on 45.3% shooting in their 2 home games, while the Nets have allowed 99.2 ppg on 46.6% shooting on the year, plus they have allowed a whopping 48.7% shooting from long range, and tghat isn't good when facing a Boston team that hits 48.3% from beyond the arc. This game sets up well for a Boston blowout and I expect they will get it.
Indiana/ Miami Over 197: Miami is playing with a chip on it's shoulder this year and they are doing it offensively. The Heat are 1st in scoring(106.7 ppg) and 1st in shooting (51.2%), plus 4th from long range (42.6 %). Miami has also scored 126 ppg at home and in their 65 wins overall they have averaged 109.6 ppg. Almost remind ya of past Phoenix Suns team. The Heat have had to score plenty as their defense comes in ranked 23rd in points allowed (97.8 ppg) and they are 27th in 3point defense (42.2%). The pacers don't have those defensive problems as they are 3rd in scoring defense (89 ppg) and 3rd in shooting defense (40.9%), but they are off two road games vs week scoring Detroit and NJ and did allow 95 ppg in the two games. On offense the pacers are middle of the pack, averaging 95 ppg, but they are 2nd in the league in shooting the three ball (44.2 %) and 8th in shooting FT's (79.2 %) and they are 5th in the league in shots per (83.2), so they like to run. Miami has been runing and scoring a ton of points this year, so I expect them to let the Pacers run in this one. Miami games have averaged 204.5 ppg overall, while their home games have averaged 211 ppg. I see this one right in the middle of the two numbers.
2 UNIT PLAY
Memphis/ Minnesota Over 197.5: Play Over - Any team (MINNESOTA) - after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games if they are a bad team (25% to 40%) and playing a team with a losing record. They play is 79-42 since 1996.
1 UNIT PLAY
Charlotte +11.5 over NY KICKS: CHARLOTTE is 11-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons, while the Knicks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
TOP SYSTEMS OF THE DAY (5-3 ON THE YEAR)
I did this over the baseball season and tried for the most part during the early NFL and CFB seasons, but it turned, but just didn't keep up with it as tracking down these systems or looking through my own was a bit more work than expected. Well Ihave organized things a bit more and have found an easier less time consuming way to do this. Now as i stated these are system plays yes, but they have had some thought go into them for me to post. In other words I have to think that the sysytem play has a good shot at coveing or i won't post. I could have a 30-1 system that looks good, but if I don't think it favors the right side then I will not post it. I will keep all the record for these plays right here.
Play Over in a game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points and a team (Detroit) is off a game that combined for a score of 175 points or less, while their opponent is off BB games of 175 points or less. This play is 24-3 the last 5 seasons. Play Chicago/ Detroit Over 180.5
Play On Underdogs of 10 or more points if they are a poor foul drawing team - attempting =48% on the season. This play is 42-13 since 1996. Play on Charlotte +11.5 over New York
Play Over in a game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and a team (Washington) is off a road loss against an opponent off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points. This play is 26-5 the last 5 seasons. Play on Washington/ Orlando Over 190.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
UTEP +11.5 over MARSHALL: The Miners come in a bit inconsistent in their last 4 games as they have gone 2-2 over that span, so what better way to get back on track tonight than vs a team that they have dominated, winning 7 of 8 in their series, including 3-0 in Huntington and they have not lost to Marshall since the two became conference rivals. UTEP may be just 3-2 in their last 5 games, but 2 of those wins were vs Clemson and Auburn, while one of their losses was by just 8 points vs a ranked KSU squad. Those 3 games where all played in a tourney in Hawaii and while they are 0-3 in their true road games they are 2-1 ATS with solid covers at UNLV and Oregon. Marshall has had a nice year as they are 9-4 overall and they are 7-2 at home, but heir only notable home win has been Iona as 5 of their 9 home games have been vs No-lined teams, while they are just 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) in lined home games. Marshall is off a 16 point home loss to Akron and even at 9-4 they really havent proven that they deserve to be this big a favorite over anyone. Look for a solid UTEP team to keep this one close. KEY TREND--- UTEP is 23-9 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons
4 UNIT PLAY
Indiana State +7 over NORTHERN IOWA: Gotta like the Sycamores in this spot. They are 9-3 ATS the last 12 in the series, while the dog is also 9-3 ATS the last 12, plus Northern Iowa is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games. The stats in this game are fairly even. On offense ISU averages 65.4 ppg on 42.9% shooting overall and they hit 34.4% of their shots from long range, while on defense they have allowed 61.1 ppg on 42.8 % shooting. NIU comes in averaging 68 ppg on 44% shooting overall, including 39.1% shooting from long range, while on defense they have allowed just 60.6 ppg on 43.7 shooting. Let's also note that both teams are in the top 43 from the charity stripe. Pretty even numbers across the board and i expect that it would near a PK on a neutral court, yet the team that has lost their last 2 at home and their last 3 overall is a sizeable favorite here. I don't think so. Indiana State comes in having won 4 of their last 5, which included a win on the road vs Vanderbilt. and they are playing very well right now, while the Panthers are reeling. Look for ISU to get the outright win here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Illinois +2 over NORTHWESTERN: The Wildcats have gotten off to a nice 11-3 and they are 1-1 in they are 1-1 in the Big 10, but I'm not really sold on this team. They have played great defense this year and their offense has played well also, but thy could have problems vs this tough Illinois defense tonight. Bruce Webber's team allowed Purdue to hit 56.8% of their last last time out and you can bet he is not happy about that, which should make it even harder for the Cats offense to get going vs Illinois tonight. Illinois is 1-2 in their last 3 games and they are off a 15 point loss at but in their previous road game they lost by just 4 at Missouri, so this team can rise up when their backs are against the wall. Northwestern is very talented, but the Wildcats lack the size and inside toughness to compete with the top teams in the Big 10. Illinois is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and they should bounce back fro the Purdue loss with a solid effort tonight.
Kansas/ Kansas State Over 139.5: There has been some points scored in this series as 8 of the last 9 have put up at least 147 points, with those 9 games averaging 154.3 ppg. This KSU offense has been stellar this year as they have averaged 77.2 ppg overall, including 78.6 ppg in their last 7 games. They have also shot well as they have hit 45.5% of their shots overall and 48.9% of their shots in their last 5 games. Kansas has also been solid at the offense end as they have averaged 76 ppg overall and 82.5 ppg at home. They have also shot well and are ranked 38th in FG% (48.1%) while at home they have shot 51%. This is a big rivalry game and you can expect it to be a bit chippy, so foul shots could pile up here, which should lead to some free points. Neither team is great from the FT line, but i Expect they will still have a LOT of chances for those freebies, plus thuis should be a close game at the end, which could lead to more FT's. Neither team is a slow down team as KSU is 90th in shots taken (57.8), while Kansas is 154th (55.8), plus Kansas has hoisted up 60.3 shots per game in their last 3 games at home. I expect an up tempo game with plenty of fouls as this one hits 150+.
Memphis/ Tennessee Under 146: This game has a high OU line due mainly to the recent history between these teams and that fact that earlier in the year neither team was playing much on defense, but that was then and this is now. Through their first 4 games of the year Memphis allowed 85.5 ppg, but remember that 2 of those games went to OT. Now in their last 9 games they have allowed just 64.4 ppg. That's a 19 point improvement. Tennessee started off the season allowing 75 ppg in their first 6 games, but in their last 7 games they allowed just 65 ppg, plus they haven't allowed more than 63 points in each of their last 3 games. Both coaches were upset about their teams defensive play early on and both teams have made the proper corrections. Tennessee make look to run a bit, but Memphis has been slowing the game down of late as they have thrown up just 50.3 spg in their last 4 games. Both offense have been solid and both teams can hit the 3 and their FT''s, but neither coach wants to see 196 points scored like the last time these teams met, so i expect bioth teams to rewally clamp0 it down on the defensive end. I do not expect a run and gun game this time around.
Minnesota/ Iowa Under 139: (Added) The Gophers have really slowed the pace down in their games this year as they are 294th in shots taken (51.5) and as a result their games have averaged just 131 ppg, including an average of just 122.3 ppg at home. Minnesota has really played good defense this year as they are allowing 61.4 ppg on 41% shooting overall and just 53.9 ppg on 38% shooting at home. Iowa has scored 77.5 ppg overall, but that number has dropped to 69.3 ppg on the road. Iowa does allow 70.5 ppg overall and 77 ppg on the road, but, I don't feel that Minnesota's average offense (68.4 ppg at home) will be able to take advantage. This team will not run. Iowa is off a huge win at Wisconsin and they could be a bit flat here, especially on the offensive side. Minnesota is the better team and at home they will dictate the pace and keep this one from hitting 140 points with ease.
2 UNIT PLAY
Marquette +4 over GEORGETOWN: Google News Play. The Hoyas are a formidable team, but I still feel they are playing bit above their heads right and they will be inconsistent during the Big East season. The did play well in beating Louisville on the road last week, but then followed that up at home with a 49-40 ugly win over Providence, in a game in which they shot just 30.5% from the field. Marquette has been inconsistent in their last 4 games, but they are still 1-0 in the Big East, after a hard fought 81-77 win over Villanova their last time out. The Golden Eagles are still a team that will be in the thick of the Big East this year and they will look for their defense to come up big vs a Georgetown offense that may be slumping a bit. Georgetown is talented, but a balanced Marquette team will take this one late.
1 UNIT PLAY
Duke/ Temple Over 151: The Owls have been more of an uptempo team this year and the Blue Devils will be more than happy to run with them. Duke is averaging 82.8 ppg on 50.3% shooting, while Temple has surprised offensively as they have averaged 74.8 ppg on 44.6% shooting. Temple home games have averaged 159 points, while the Over is 16-5-1 in their last 22 home games (3-0 this year). Look for a shootout here.
TOP SYSTEMS OF THE DAY (4-3 ON THE YEAR)
I did this over the baseball season and tried for the most part during the early NFL and CFB seasons, but it turned, but just didn't keep up with it as tracking down these systems or looking through my own was a bit more work than expected. Well Ihave organized things a bit more and have found an easier less time consuming way to do this. Now as i stated these are system plays yes, but they have had some thought go into them for me to post. In other words I have to think that the sysytem play has a good shot at coveing or i won't post. I could have a 30-1 system that looks good, but if I don't think it favors the right side then I will not post it. I will keep all the record for these plays right here.
Play Against - Favorites of 20 or more points (DREXEL) - off a road loss if they are a good team (60% to 80%) playing a terrible team (<=20%). This play is 34-8 since 1997 and 2-0 this year. Play on Towson State +20.5 over Drexel
Play Over in a game where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points in January and a team (Temple) is off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. This play is 30-7 the last 5 seasons, but 0-1 this year. Play Temple/ Duke Over 151