SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
GMAC BOWL
(at Mobile, Ala.)
Troy (9-3, 8-4 ATS) vs. (25) Central Michigan (11-2, 9-3 ATS)
In a matchup of two of the most exciting quarterbacks in college football, conference champions Troy and Central Michigan will square off inside Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Ala.
The Trojans, winners of the Sun Belt Conference, showed they can light up the scoreboard this season, putting up 33.1 points per game while ranking third in the Football Bowl Subdivision at 480.7 yards per contest and fourth in the country with 331 yards passing per game. Troy, which ranked 18th nationally in scoring, topped the 40-point mark in six of their final seven games with the only exception coming in a 56-20 loss at SEC power Arkansas, falling as a 14-point underdog.
Central Michigan ranks one spot ahead of Troy in points scored at 33.2 ppg, and manages 417.7 total yards per game (32nd in the country), including 172.9 rushing yards per game (41st). The Chippewas beat Ohio 20-10 in the Mid-American Conference title game Dec. 4, coming up short as 13½-point favorites. Central Michigan finished undefeated in conference play en route to its third MAC crown in the last four years, and enters this game on a four-game overall winning streak (3-1 ATS).
The Trojans are in their second consecutive bowl game and fourth in school history, all since 2004. Their last two postseason trips were to the New Orleans Bowl, beating Rice 41-17 in 2006 as a 4½-point underdog for their first bowl victory, followed by last year’s 30-27 overtime loss to Southern Mississippi as a 4½-point favorite.
Central Michigan is playing in its fourth consecutive bowl game, the first three coming in the Motor City Bowl. The Chippewas fell to Sun Belt foe Florida Atlantic 24-21 as seven-point favorites last season and last won a postseason game in 2006 when they clobbered Middle Tennessee (also from the Sun Belt) 31-14 as 8½-point favorites.
The battle of quarterbacks puts Troy senior Levi Brown up against Central Michigan’s four-year starter Dan LeFevour. Brown ranks second in the nation with 322.3 passing yards per game and his 3,868 yards passing was a record for both Troy and the Sun Belt Conference. LeFevour completes 71.2 percent of his throws and he had 27 TD strikes this season to go with 14 scoring runs. His 147 career touchdowns set the major college football mark he previously shared with former Hawaii QB Colt Brennan and ex-Texas Tech signal caller Graham Harrell.
Troy is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games, but it is on pointspread surges of 8-2 overall, 6-1 after a spread-cover, 20-8 after a straight-up win and 5-2 against teams with a winning record. Central Michigan is on positive ATS streaks of 39-16-2 overall, 25-9-2 as a favorite, 11-2-1 after a non-cover and 5-2 after a straight-up win.
The Trojans are on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 6-1 overall, 10-1 as an underdog, 10-4 in non-conference games and 5-1 after a straight-up win. The Chippewas have topped the posted total in 11 of 17 non-conference games and nine of 11 after a non-cover, but Central Michigan is also on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in neutral-site games and 4-0 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(17) Wisconsin (12-2, 8-4 ATS) at (10) Michigan State (11-3, 4-9 ATS)
Today’s lone matchup of Top 25 teams comes from the Breslin Events Center in East Lansing, Mich., where the 10th-ranked Spartans look to end Wisconsin’s six-game winning streak.
The Badgers have rebounded nicely from a surprising four-point overtime loss at Wisconsin-Green Bay, ripping off six straight wins of nine points or more. That includes opening Big Ten play with a pair of blowout victories over Ohio State (65-43 as a six-point favorite on New Year’s Eve) and Penn State (63-46 as a five-point chalk on Sunday). Wisconsin (5-1 ATS during its winning streak), has yielded 63, 42, 58, 43, 43 and 46 points during its run, and it now ranks fifth in the nation in scoring defense at 56.4 ppg.
Michigan State tipped off the conference campaign with Saturday’s 91-70 rout of No. 25 Northwestern, easily covering as a 5½-point road chalk to end a 1-6 ATS slide. The Spartans are 5-1 SU in their last six games, with the lone setback being a 79-68 loss at No. 2 Texas as a 9½ -point underdog on Dec. 22. While the Badgers excel on defense, Michigan State sports a solid scoring unit that has produced at least 68 points in every game this year, including 80 or more eight times (four times in the last five games). Tom Izzo’s team averages 82.4 ppg (50.7 percent shooting).
The Spartans pummeled Wisconsin 61-50 in last year’s lone meeting, covering as an eight-point home favorite. The host has won eight consecutive regular-season meetings (7-1 ATS) between these teams going back to the 2004-05 season. Most recently, Michigan State has covered in five of the last seven battles overall (including in the conference tournament), and the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10.
In addition to their 5-1 ATS surge overall, the Badgers have cashed in 13 of their last 18 games on Wednesday and five of their last seven against opponents with a winning record. Conversely, Michigan State is in a slew of pointspread slumps, including 2-6 overall, 1-4 at home, 1-7 against winning teams, 1-3-1 on Wednesday, 3-8 after a SU win and 0-4 after a spread-cover. The Spartans have yet to cash in back-to-back games this year.
For Wisconsin, the under is on runs of 5-0 overall, 7-1 on the highway, 8-1 in Big Ten action, 35-16-1 after a SU win and 37-15 after a spread cover, though 10 of its last 14 Wednesday contests have topped the total. Michigan State has stayed low in nine of 12 conference contests and five of seven against winning teams. Lastly, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these rivals and 5-2 in the last seven in East Lansing.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Memphis (10-3, 2-5 ATS) at (7) Syracuse (13-1, 7-3 ATS)
Syracuse returns to the court for the first time since losing its first contest of the year when it hosts the Tigers at the Carrier Dome in a non-conference clash.
Memphis has followed up a six-game winning streak by going 3-2 SU in its last five (0-3 ATS in lined action). The victories came against cupcakes Southeast Missouri State (87-57), Indiana-Purdue (87-67) and Houston Baptists (93-52), while the losses were to UMass (73-72 as a whopping 14-point neutral-site chalk) and 14th-ranked Tennessee (66-59 as a 2½-point home favorite). Besides Tennessee, the Tigers have faced only one other ranked opponent this year, losing a nail-biter to No. 1 Kansas 57-55, but easily covering as a 10½-point underdog in Kansas City. Memphis has averaged just 62 ppg in its three losses, compared with 83.2 ppg in its 10 wins.
After a perfect non-conference season, Syracuse stumbled in its Big East debut Saturday, falling 82-72 to Pitt as a huge 11-point favorite. It was the first time all year the Orange were held under 75 points, as they’ve scored 80 or more 11 times, 90 or more five times and reached triple digits twice. For the season, Jim Boeheim’s group is putting up 86.6 ppg on 53.7 percent shooting, figures that rank fourth and first in the nation, respectively.
Syracuse traveled to Memphis in December 2008 and shocked the Tigers 72-65 as a nine-point road underdog, four years after beating them 77-62 as a 2½-point chalk at Madison Square Garden in New York.
Since cashing against top-ranked Kansas, Memphis has gone 1-5 ATS in lined action. However, the Tigers are on positive pointspread rolls of 4-0 on Wednesday and 14-5 against winning teams. Meanwhile, despite the loss to Pitt, Syracuse is on ATS runs of 16-5 overall, 10-3 at home, 9-3 in non-conference play, 12-5 versus winning teams, 4-1 after a SU loss, 5-1-1 after a double-digit home defeat and 4-1 after a non-cover.
Memphis has topped the total in eight of its last 10 games against Big East opponents, but is otherwise on “under” stretches of 15-7 overall, 6-2 on the road and 15-6 after a SU win. The Orange are 5-1-1 “under” in their last six against Conference USA squads, but they otherwise sport “over” streaks of 11-3 overall, 8-3 at home, 5-1 in non-conference play and 4-1 both after a SU and ATS defeat. Finally, the under is 2-0-1 in the three meetings between these schools since 2002.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SYRACUSE
(12) Georgetown (11-1, 5-3 ATS) at Marquette (9-5, 4-4 ATS)
The Hoyas face easily their toughest true road test of the season when they trek to the Bradley Center in Milwaukee for a Big East battle with Marquette.
Georgetown has ripped off three straight wins – including two to start off conference play – since suffering its first setback of the season on Dec. 19 (61-57 home loss to Old Dominion). On Sunday, the Hoyas went to DePaul and trashed the Blue Demons 67-50 as a nine-point favorite. They’ve allowed just one opponent (Harvard) to score more than 66 points this year, holding foes to 57.5 ppg on 37.8 percent shooting. Georgetown is 3-0 in true road games this year, but those came against Tulane, Savannah State and DePaul.
The Warriors have started the Big East season with two heartbreaking losses, first falling to No. 6 West Virginia 63-62 as a 12½-point underdog on Dec. 29, then returning home Saturday and losing 74-72 to No. 8 Villanova as a one-point ‘dog. Marquette has faced four Top 20 opponents since the day after Thanksgiving, going 1-3 SU and ATS, but three of those games were on the road. The Warriors started out 6-0, but are 3-5 since (3-2 at home).
Marquette swept last year’s season series against the Hoyas, winning 94-82 as a six-point home favorite and 78-72 as a 3½-point road ‘dog. Since the Warriors joined the Big East, the teams have split six meetings, with Marquette holding a slim 3-2-1 ATS edge. The winner is 5-0-1 ATS in those six contests.
The Hoyas have cashed in four straight lined road games and are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 Wednesday outings, but they’re also in ATS funks of 5-17 in Big East play, 3-7-1 after a SU win and 6-20-1 when coming off a spread-cover. In fact, Georgetown has covered in consecutive contests just once since January of last year, a stretch of 28 lined games. Marquette is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 after a defeat and 2-7 ATS in its last nine lined home games.
Georgetown sports “under” trends of 4-1 overall, 21-10 on the highway, 5-1 in Big East action, 4-0 after a victory and 41-19 after an ATS triumph. The under is also 4-1 in Marquette’s last five home games. On the flip side, the last four matchups between these schools have jumped over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA
Boston (24-8, 14-18 ATS) at Miami (17-15, 16-16 ATS)
The depleted Celtics, who just recently concluded a four-game road swing, kick off a three-game trip with a visit to American Airlines Arena for a battle with Dwyane Wade and the Heat.
Boston, in the midst of playing seven of eight games away from Beantown, returned from its four-game journey on Saturday and took down the Raptors 103-96, cashing as just a three-point favorite. Six players scored in double figures for the Celtics, who snapped a three-game SU and ATS losing skid even though stars Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo and Kevin Garnett sat out with injuries. Even though Boston has had three days off, Pierce and Garnett are out for at least another week, while Rondo is questionable tonight.
Miami also halted a three-game SU and ATS slide in its most recent trip to the court, upending Southeast Division rival Atlanta 92-75 on Monday, cashing as a two-point home underdog. Despite the presence of Wade (fifth in the league in scoring at 26.4 ppg), the Heat continue to struggle offensively, scoring in triple digits just once in their last eight games, averaging just 89.1 ppg in the other seven contests.
The Celtics have owned this rivalry, winning three in a row (2-1 ATS) and nine of the last 10 (7-3 ATS), including a 92-85 victory as a four-point favorite in this year’s first meeting on Nov. 29. During this 10-game stretch, Boston is 5-1 SU and ATS in South Beach, and the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the past eight matchups.
The SU winner has covered the spread in each of the Heat’s last 13 games and 29 of the their 32 contests this season, and the winner is 8-2 ATS in Boston’s last 10 and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 clashes between these squads.
Boston won 11 of its first 12 road games, but it went 0-3 SU and ATS to end its most recent road trip, falling to 8-9 ATS as a visitor (2-5 ATS last seven). The Celtics are also in pointspread ruts of 1-4 after a SU victory, 0-4 after a spread-cover, 1-4 on Wednesday and 2-5 when playing after three or more days of rest. However, Doc Rivers’ club has cashed in four of its last five against winning teams.
Miami has dropped six of its last 11 home games (including the seven-point loss to Boston on Nov. 29), but it has followed an 0-8 ATS drought at American Airlines Arena by cashing in five of its last seven as a host. Miami is also 5-1 ATS in its last six against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 ATS in its last six when going after one day of rest and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 on Wednesday.
The Celtics carry “under” trends of 3-1-1 against Eastern Conference squads, 9-2 versus the Southeast Division, 3-0-1 after a SU win and 11-4 after a spread-cover. Miami is riding “under” streaks of 6-1 overall, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 20-7 following a SU win, 12-4 after a double-digit victory and 11-5-1 versus winning opponents. Conversely, the over is 10-4 in Boston’s last 14 Wednesday outings and 11-5 in the Heat’s last 16 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Houston (20-15 SU and ATS) at Phoenix (22-13, 20-15 ATS)
Two teams that traveled overnight following road games on Wednesday hook up at US Airways Center in the desert, where the Suns host the Rockets in a battle of Western Conference opponents struggling with consistency.
Houston was in Los Angeles last night and fell to the Lakers 88-79 as a seven-point road underdog, setting a low-water mark for points in a game this season. The Rockets have followed up a 9-3 SU and ATS run by going 3-4 in their last seven games (2-5 ATS). All three losses and all four non-covers came on the road, where Rick Adelman’s troops are just 10-11 SU and ATS this year. Houston, which ends a three-game road trip tonight, has averaged just 88.4 ppg in its last five on the highway.
Phoenix returns home after outlasting Sacramento 113-109 on Tuesday, cashing as a 2½-point road chalk. Steve Nash and the offense are rolling again, topping triple digits in seven straight games, scoring 113 or more in six of those contests and averaging 116.3 ppg over this stretch. The Suns jumped out to a 14-3 start to the season (11-6 ATS), but they’ve since lost 10 of their last 18 (9-9 ATS). They’ve also only split their last six home games SU and ATS – including an ugly 128-103 loss to Memphis in the most recent home game – after starting out 10-0 (7-3 ATS) at US Airways Center.
Phoenix went to Houston on Nov. 17 and topped the Rockets 111-105 as a 2½-point road underdog. The Suns are 17-5 ATS in the last 22 meetings overall and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in the desert, but the visitor has cashed in 14 of the last 20 and the ‘dog is on a 4-1 ATS roll. The winner has scored in triple digits in nine of the last 10 meetings, with both teams clearing the century mark in the last three in a row.
The SU winner is 14-1 ATS in Houston’s last 15 games (8-1 ATS on the road) and 11-0 ATS in Phoenix’s last 11 overall and 9-0 ATS in its last nine at home. Also, the victor has gotten the cash in seven of the last eight battles between these foes.
The Rockets have cashed in five of their last seven against Western Conference opponents, but in addition to failing to cover in five straight road games, they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six when playing on consecutive nights. The Suns have also struggled recently in back-to-backs (1-4 ATS last five), but they’re 17-8 ATS in their last 25 home outings dating to last season and 6-2 ATS both in their last eight against Southwest Division foes and their last eight against winning teams.
Houston is on “under” surges of 6-1 overall, 5-0 on the road, 5-2 on Wednesday and 4-1 when playing on back-to-back nights. On the flip side, Phoenix is on “over” upticks of 6-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 7-1 against the Western Conference, 26-9 on Wednesday and 10-4 when playing the second night of a back-to-back. Finally, six of the last eight Suns-Rockets matchups in Phoenix have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX and UNDER
Andrew Bucciarelli
1* Dallas Stars (+125) Over New York Rangers
This is the first and only meeting between these two teams. The points are very big for these two teams and are both looking for that playoff spot. Consistency is the name of Dallas’ game and this could be the month that makes or breaks the Stars. The Rangers have just two wins in their last 10 overall at Madison Square Garden. The Stars have no major injuries and should push the Ranger D enough to get the win.
Take DALLAS.
2** Colorado Avalanche (-156) Over New York Islanders
This is the only meeting between the two teams and they have not met more than once since 2001-02. The Islanders are 1-6-1-1 since the Avs moved from Quebec to Colorado. There is a possibility that Rick DiPietro will be net, which may be good news for the Avs seeing that he hasn’t played in more than a year. Avs have won three in a row and look to extend it to four. The Islanders have gone to OT the past 16 times and are 8-8. Colorado is 8-2-1 versus Eastern Conference teams as the Isles are 2-4-0 against Western Conference teams. Colorado should control play tonight against the streaky Isles.
Take COLORADO.
2** Parlay1) Buffalo Sabres (-190) Over Tampa Bay Lightning
2)San Jose Sharks (-240) Over St. Louis Blues
1)Play has not slowed down for the Sabres even though they have come off sluggish. The Sabres have been on a seven game point streak at home, have won 3 in a row at home, and have earned points in seven straight (5-0-2). Ryan Miller has been strong in net helping in these wins so look for that to be key in the win tonight.
2)The Sharks and Blues have met twice this season and have split the series thus far. Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, and Douglas Murray are all playing great hockey right now and should continue this against the Blues. The Blues will be missing Keith Tkachuk, T.J. Oshie, Paul Kariya, and Barret Jackman as the Sharks have a clean bill of health. Sharks goalie is 6-0-2 with a 1.82 GAA in his last eight starts against the Blues.
Take BUFFALO AND SAN JOSE IN PARLAY.
Wunderdog
Troy vs. Central Michigan
Play: Central Michigan -3
The Troy Trojans will be making their second consecutive Bowl appearance, after losing to Southern Miss a year ago. They certainly didn't have too many tough encounters in a weak Sun Belt Conference this season. When they stepped out, they were thrashed including a 31-14 setback to an ordinary MAC team in Bowling Green. How did they fare vs. Bowl teams? The Trojans lost to Florida by 50 points, to Arkansas by 36 and to Bowling Green by 17. CMU played a very difficult out-of-conference schedule and still went 11-2 this year. They lost to Arizona by just 13 and they beat Michigan State outright. They also beat the aforementioned Bowling Green 24-10. Their closest in-conference game came early, a 7-point win. No team came within single digits on CMU the rest of the way in eight games. The Trojans will not be able to stop Dan LeFevour who set records both in the air and on the ground where he has over 700 yards. Central Michigan won their games this year by an average margin of 33-17 and they went 6-2 on the road. Troy was just 4-3 on the road, actually getting outscored 29-36 on average! The Trojans have to match scores to win, but unfortunately they are out-manned on both sides of the ball. I like the Chippewas to win and cover here.
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
2* TROY/CENT MICH UNDER
First meeting. Troy is playing its 4th bowl in 6 yrs and is excited to play this one in their home state. HC Blakeney is in his 19th yr and is 1-2 SU/ATS in bowls, but won outright the only time they were a dog.This will be Troy’s 2nd bowl vs a tm from the MAC, as they lost the ‘04 Silicon Valley Bowl to NI 34-21 (-3). While Troy swept their SBC gms they were just 1-3 SU/ATS vs bowl caliber tms with their only win and cover vs SBC member MT. They were outscored by 19.7 ppg and outgained by 161 ypg but did play 2 SEC foes. However, they did lose to fellow MAC member BG, 31-14 as a 7 pt AF (outgained 389-304). CM also played BG (only common opp) and won 24-10 as a 9’ pt AF with a 406-363 yd edge. CM has won their 3rd MAC Champ in the L/4Y. This is their 4th str bowl, but after playing in the former Motor City Bowl in MI the L/3Y, they head south for their 1st GMAC Bowl. CM is just 1-4 SU (2-3 ATS) in bowl gms. They have played SBC tms twice in the L/3Y beating MT (-8) in ‘06 and losing in LY’s bowl to FAU (-7). HC Jones has led CM to a bowl in each of his 3 ssns, but has been mentioned in some other HC openings. CM was 4-2 SU/ATS vs bowl tms incl an outright upset of Mich St as a 14’ pt AD. After beating Ohio in the MAC Champ, CM was ranked #25 in the AP poll (#26, 1 spot ahead of USC in Cch’s poll), for the 1st time in schl hist. Both tms are experienced as Troy has 19 upperclassmen incl 12 Sr starters while CM has 16 upperclassmen with 9 Sr starters.
CM has our #43 off and is avg 33.2 ppg and 417 ypg. They are led by Sr QB LeFevour who was the MAC POY. LeFevour broke Chad Pennington’s MAC rec’d for TD passes (101) and also broke the NCAA rec for car TD’s with 147. He is also CM’s top rusher (14 rush TD). CM has 3 WR’s with 625+ yds incl Anderson, who set an NCAA rec with 53 consec gms with a rec. The OL paved the way for 4.6 ypc and all’d just 15 sks (3.5%). While some of that is due to a mobile QB, the OL had 2 All-MAC players in RG Allen Ollenburger (1st Tm), the only Sr starter and C Colin Miller (2nd Tm). The big reason for CM’s return to the MAC Champ was the D, which is ranked #51 all’g just 17.2 ppg and 327 ypg. LY the def was down to 2nd and 3rd stringers by the EOY. The DL avg 6’2” 265 and was responsible for 15 of CM’s 23 sks TY while all’g 3.6 ypc. The DL has 3 All-MAC players incl both Sr’s in DE Zombo (1st Tm), DE Knight (3rd Tm) and DE Murnane (3rd Tm). The LB corps is led by the top 2 tklr’s both with 100+ tkls in 1st Tm MAC Bellore and Berning. The secondary which allowed 207.4 ypg (59%) with an 11-11 ratio is led by 3 Sr starters incl 2nd Tm MAC CB Gordy. CM has our #63 spec tms led by MAC ST POY Brown who avg 20.4 on KR and 13.5 on PR with 2 PR TD’s. They allowed 21.4 on KR but just 4.5 on PR with 20 of 50 punts I/20. K Andrew Aguila hit 12-17 FG with a long of 49. Troy won their 2nd straight outright SBC Title and has dominated the SBC over the L/4Y going 26-3 in conf play. The off was key TY avg 33 ppg and 479 ypg finishing with our #39 overall ranking. Sr QB Brown is the most important piece to this high-octane attack as he is #2 in the nation behind UH QB Keenum in ttl off at 324 ypg. Since Troy tends to pass 1st, the running gm’s top man in ‘09 was Southward who totaled 574 yds but had a stellar 5.7 ypc and 10 TD’s. With Brown’s big ssn, it’s somewhat of a surprise that just 2 players (Jernigan and Gill) have more than 500 rec yds. The receptions have been spread out as 12 diff Trojans have 10+ on the ssn (11 w/100+ yds). With 53 rec yds in the bowl, Jernigan will become the 1st Troy WR to reach the 1,000 plateau S/’84. The OL has just missed 1 start on the ssn (98%). The unit has helped pave the way for 4.4 ypc while all’g just 20 sks on 472 pass att on the yr (4.2%). The Troy def is ranked #91, all’g 29 ppg and 418 ypg. If you take the SEC gms vs UF and Ark out of the equation (112 pts, 1255 yds), the def looks a lot more respectable (23 ppg, 376 ypg). The DL avg 6’3” 268 (3 Sr) and started every gm together TY while recording 25 of the tm’s 31 sks (81%). The LB unit features 2 of the SBC’s best in Woods and Lee who have posted 100+ tkls in each of the L/2Y. The secondary has our #103 pass def all’g 278 ypg (62%) w/a 28-9 ratio (10-1 ratio vs SEC). Troy has our #69 ranked ST and while the kicking units have been solid (16-19 FG’s, 37.5 net), the ret gm has been poor (21.0 KR, 3.5 PR). Central lobbied to not go to Detroit again and got their wish in what will be an exciting post-NY’s Day bowl. Both tms have well publicized offenses but each possess an underrated stop unit. It should be easier for Troy to re-focus after the holidays vs Central having to make this long trip.
FORECAST: Central Michigan/Troy RATING: 2* UNDER
CKO
11 *TROY over Central Michigan
Late Score Forecast: *TROY 34 - Central Michigan 26
Eager to take points in contest between two potent spread offenses led by senior QBs. CKO scouts say Trojans pleased as punch to be playing a bowl game in their own state. QB Levi Brown (37 TDP, only 12 ints. the last two years) has lots of elusive smurfs available as targets. And Troy is noted in the Sun Belt for being able to land the defensive speed needed to spring surprises vs. favored opposition. Many Central Michigan veterans were around two years ago when Brian Kelly bolted for Cincinnati, and this season’s mentor (Butch Jones) has done the same thing!
THE GOLDSHEET
*TROY 33 - Central Michigan 27—Bowl history is replete with examples of teams playing under interim coaches after their former mentors left for other jobs (or, in a handful of cases, having been dismissed) following the conclusion of the regular season. Central Michigan knows all about this phenomenon, being led by interim HC Jeff Quinn in its 2006 Motor City Bowl win over Middle Tennessee following the departure of Brian Kelly for Cincinnati. (Quinn, coincidentally, will be doing the same interim “post-Kelly” job for the Bearcats in the upcoming Sugar Bowl before assuming the HC position at Buffalo.) Now, history is repeating itself for the Chippewas, as Kelly’s CMU successor, Butch Jones, will be taking Kelly’s place again, this time at Cincy, with DL coach Steve Stripling now in charge of the Chips in Mobile. MAC sources say this game will be an audition of sorts for Stripling to land the permanent job, with o.c. Mike Bajakian, Grand Valley State (where CMU first plucked Kelly) HC Chuck Martin, Michigan State asst. Dan Enos, and South Florida d.c. Joe Tresey (on Kelly’s ‘06 staff) all being mentioned as well. Stay tuned.
The track record of interim bowl coaches is mixed. And MAC scouts suspect the Chips can deal with Jones’ departure thanks mainly to decorated sr. QB Dan LeFevour (who accounted for 41 TDs, 27 via pass and 14 via run, TY), although the coach (Jones) who installed CMUs’ high-powered spread won’t be on the sidelines. However, evidence also indicates capable Troy is every bit as potent, scoring 33.1 ppg (41.2 over its last 6 games) with its version of the spread and its own record-setting sr. QB, Levi Brown, whose whopping 3868 YP were records for both the Trojans and Sun Belt. This is also an intriguing test case of the relative strengths of the Sun Belt and MAC, one that many TGS insiders believe favored the Belt this season. We suspect capable and less-distracted Troy, with the advantage of playing in nearby Mobile, will prove them right. (DNP...SR: FIRST MEETING)
GOLD SHEET EXTRA
TROY vs. CENTRAL MICHIGAN (GMAC, January 6)...Troy 10-6 as dog since ’05 and 17-10-1 vs. number last 28 away from home. CMU was 9-3 vs,number TY but this will be first chance laying points vs. non-conference foe this season. Chips just 3-5 as chalk away from Mt. Pleasant since LY. Note MAC 0-5 vs. line in bowls LY (including CMU losing as chalk vs. Sun Belt FAU) Tech edge-Troy, based on team trends
LOGICAL APPROACH
Central Michigan has been the best team in the MAC over the past 4 seasons behind the leadership of QB LeFevour. CMU just won their third MAC title in 4 seasons and is making a fourth straight Bowl trip. They are 2-1 in their prior 3 Bowls with both wins coming against Sun Belt teams and representing most of the success of MAC teams in Bowl play during this period. CMU's lone Bowl loss was a 51-48 thriller against Purdue, a team that had defeated CMU 45-22 when the two had met earlier in that 2007 season. CMU coach Jones is the new coach at Cincinnati and although he's gone his staff remains at CMU for this game. Despite CMU's apparent edges the site greatly favors Troy, itself no stranger to Bowl. The Trojans are in a second straight bowl and their fourth in 6 seasons. Their lone Bowl win in this stretch was over Rice in the 2006 New Orleans Bowl. Last season they barely lost to Southern Miss in that same Bowl. Troy also has an excellent QB (Brown) and an offense that statistically outperformed CMU's. In fact Troy averaged 86 ypg more than CMU and faced much stiffer non-conference competition, although they were blown out by SEC squads Florida and Arkansas. CMU's highlight was a 29-27 win at Michigan State. Both teams faced Bowling Green with Troy losing on the road in their opener 31-14 while CMU won at home in mid-season 24-10. CMU's 2 losses were both out of conference, on the road and to BCS programs, Arizona and Boston College. Both teams clearly performed better than expected with their combined 17-7 ATS record. Much of Troy's poor defensive stats came in those two SEC losses in which they allowed 663 yards to Florida and 592 to Arkansas. And even with those games included Troy QB Brown actually has the better passing stats than the more heralded LeFevour. Both teams will be motivated to make up for 3 point losses in last season's Bowls. Both bring plenty of offense to this game and both dominated their respective conferences, each going unbeaten in those games. Supporters of CMU will point to the comparative performances against Bowling Green. Supporters of Troy will point out that the Bowling Green loss was in Troy's opener. The preference here is to side with Troy with the decided site advantage and comparable leadership at QB. Both teams averaged the same 33 points per game and while Troy allowed an average of 11 more points per game, eliminating the two SEC games while eliminating both of CMU's losses (both non conference) CMU still enjoys a 8 point defensive edge while both offenses averaged 37 points scored. This could well come down to the team with the last possession. CMU's slightly better overall profile is offset by Troy's site edge. These are each teams that we'd prefer to played "ON" this Bowl season. When picked to choose the preference is to take the points with a capable underdog, especially when that dog has been challenged (though falling way short) by much more athletic foes than they've face here. The call is for Troy to win 38-34, making
TROY a 2 Star Selection and the
OVER a 4 Star Selection
PLAYBOOK
Central Michigan over Troy by 4
If we didn’t list the teams or the conferences, this would seem like an intriguing table-setter for the BCS title game. A pair of conference champions, each undefeated in league play, led by terrifi c quarterbacks. However, when we mention the names of Central Michigan and Troy, we can see the interest level start to waver. That’s a shame, as QB’s Dan LeFevour and Levi Brown should provide for an entertaining evening. The Chippewas’ LeFevour is the FBS all-time leader in total TDs while the Trojans’ Brown led an offensive attack that averaged 331 yards through the air and 478 yards overall. As expected, both teams arrive with impressive ATS numbers. The dog in Trojan bowl games is a spotless 3-0 SU and ATS and Sun Belt bowl dogs off a SU and ATS win are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS, including 1-0 this bowl season. Troy is also an impressive 28-7 ‘ITS’ over the last three seasons. The Achilles heel for the Trojans,however, is their 100th-rated defense, which allowed season-high yards to two of their fi nal three opponents and has been lit up through the air for 278 YPG – 3rd worse in the nation. The Chippewas are making their third straight bowl appearance and are an impressive 11-6 ATS versus non-conference opposition. They are also 8-4 ‘ITS’ versus bowlers over the last two years. However, CMU dropped a 24-21 decision to the Sun Belt’s FAU last season as 7-point favorites. Let’s also not forget that, as of this writing, MAC bowlers are 0-8 SU and ATS since 2007. With questions surrounding the Central Michigan program (associate HC Steve Stripling has been appointed interim coach after Butch Jones departed to take the vacant job at Cincinnati), we’ll just enjoy this shootout and get ready for tomorrow’s national title showdown.
POINTWISE
For the Chippewas of Central Michigan, this game marks a school-record 4th consecutive bowl season, having played in the '06, '07, & '08 Motor City Bowls. Led by QB LeFevour, they've won the MAC title in 3 of those 4 years, & have a perfect 9-0 mark in league play in '09. LeFevour now owns the NCAA record for career touchdowns (101 passing, 46 rushing), & wound up this season as the 13th-ranked QB in the nation (71.1%, 3,043 yds, 27/6). He also leads CM in rushing (701 yds), while Brown & Anderson are a formidable receiving duo (1,720 yds & 15 TDs). Three years ago, as the Chips were preparing for their bowl, we wrote the following: "The main question, of course, is: How will the Chips perform without head coach Brian Kelly on the sidelines? He left to take over for Mark Dantonio at Cincinnati." Deja vu, as this year we write: The main question, of course, is: How will the Chips perform without Butch Jones on the sidelines? He left to take over for Brian Kelly at Cincinnati. Well, Central did win that one, 31-14, but it came vs bowl novice, MiddleTennessee. This time around, however, their opponent is well versed in the holiday scene, with this its 4th bowl appearance in the last 6 years. The Trojans of Troy, blew through their conference, posting an 8-0 mark in Sun Belt play. Thus a bit of a novelty, as this is the only bowl game outside of the BCS that pits 2 conference champs against each other. Troy owns the land's 3rd ranked "O", (40+ pts in 6 of their final 7 games) behind the passing of Levi Brown (64.7%, 3,868 yds, 22/9). On "D", Troy checks in at #100, compared to CM at #32. But this is a home game for the Trojans, the dog is 3-0 ATS in their 1st 3 bowls, & they have their coach.
PROPHECY: TROY 33 - Central Michigan 31 RATING: 6
BANG THE BOOK
The GMAC bowl may not have two teams that you recognize but this does not mean that this won’t be a great game to watch. Central Michigan is actually ranked #25 in the country in some polls and they finished 11-2 on the year. Dan LeFevour fired 27 TD’s and through for over 3,000 yards along the way and enter this game on a four game winning streak. Troy is no stranger to bowl games and have gotten better every year. They finished the season at 9-3 and won some money for Trojan backers as they finished 8-4 ATS. They have a talented QB in Levi Brown who through for over 3800 yards and 22 scores. This game is going to be a high scoring affair. Central Michigan has the edge on defense but the team with the ball last could win this game. Troy is making the most of the extra practices they are getting and will be in this game to the end. The Trojans are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight up win and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Look for plenty of scoring and a close fought game.
GMAC Bowl Pick: Troy +3
Stephen Nover
Washington at CLEVELAND -13'
The Cavaliers should be double-motivated for this matchup. The Cavaliers lost in their last game being embarrassed at home on Sunday by Charlotte, 91-88. Cleveland also was embarrassed in its previous meeting with Washington, losing 108-91 on the road on Nov. 18.
The Cavaliers should be fully prepared and focused. They go on a five-game road trip following this home matchup.
I don't expect the Wizards to be focused. The Wizards have talent, but don't mesh well as a team. They are just 4-11 in their last 15 games.
Washington was impressive in beating Philadelphia on the road last night, 104-97. The Wizards came from 18 points down to pull out the win.
But now the Wizards have to play a second road game within 24 hours. Four of their starters played at least 36 minutes last night with Antawn Jamison logging 42:10 and Gilbert Arenas going 37:43. The Wizards were missing center Brendan Haywood (ill) and key reserve swingman Mike Miller (strained right calf). Their availability is up in the air for tonight's game.
I seriously doubt the Wizards can put together two strong efforts, especially when stepping up in class. There's also a chance the league could come down on Arenas for having guns at the Verizon Center last month. That investigation has been a distraction for the Wizards and any updated news could cause additional problems.
The Wizards are 0-3 this season as an underdog of nine or more points. They have failed to cover in 23 of the past 30 games when facing a team with a winning mark.
3♦ CAVALIERS
Wisconsin +6 at MICHIGAN STATE
Michigan State is a very good, but not great team. Wisconsin meanwhile has been a surprise going 12-2. The Badgers are the only team to defeat Duke.
I see the Badgers hanging against their Big Ten rival. Michigan State's Tom Izzo is one of the best coaches in the country. But Wisconsin's Bo Ryan doesn't take a backseat to any coach. Ryan is 11-4 versus Michigan State.
The Badgers play tremendous defense. They've held half of their 14 opponents to fewer than 50 points per game. Wisconsin ranks fifth in the country defensively giving up 56.4 points per game.
Wisconsin is playing well opening its Big Ten season with wins and pointspread covers against Ohio State (65-43 at home) and Penn State (63-46 on the road). The Badgers have been underdogs twice this season and won both of those games straight-up beating Maryland, 78-69, on a neutral court and Duke, 73-69, at home.
Wisconsin led Michigan State, 41-29, last year on the road before losing, 61-50. Don't look for a repeat of that happening. The Spartans are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games versus a team with a winning record.
4♦ WISCONSIN
Bobby Maxwell
Golden State +3 at MINNESOTA
I'm 42-19 with my last two months of FREE plays, including a 19-5 run the last 24 days. Today I've got an NBA winner for yo as I'm grabbing the points with Golden State as the Warriors travel to Minnesota to face the T'Wolves.
If there is one thing we know about Golden State, is the Warriors are going to light up a scoreboard. While they might have lost a tough one in Denver on Tuesday, they will find the going much easier tonight in Minnesota.
The Nuggets beat Golden State 121-120 on Tuesday but the Warriors got the cash as 5 ½-point road ‘dogs in Denver. This team is playing so much better lately than they were early in the season. They barely lost to the Lakers a week ago, falling by 6 as 11 ½-point ‘dogs, and have some tough losses in their last 10 games.
However, when they played the T’Wolves back in November, the Warriors scored a 146-105 win as six-point favorites. And last time they went to Minnesota, they scored a 118-94 victory as one-point road favorites. They’ve won seven of the last 10 overall against the T’Wolves and the road team is on a 7-3 ATS run in the last 10 series clashes.
Golden State has cashed in four of its last five overall while the T’Wolves are on ATS slides of 17-36-1 at home, 0-7 as a home favorite, 1-4-1 after three or more days off and 0-6 as a home chalk of 0 to 4 ½.
This is a high-flying Golden State team that averages almost 106.8 points a game while Minnesota has given up 108.2 points a game the last five outings. Go ahead and play the Warriors as a ‘dog tonight.
4♦ GOLDEN STATE
Frank Jordan
Memphis U vs. Syracuse
Play: Syracuse -9
Memphis is off to 10-3 and have split their first two road games as they head up to Syracuse. Memphis last time out won by 41 over Houston Baptist after a 7 point loss to Tennessee. Syracuse is number 7 in the country, but after winning their first thirteen games lost by 10 last time out to conference foe Pittsburgh. Look for Memphis to stumble once again against a tough team as Syracuse gets back to winning at home over the Tigers. Play Syracuse
Jim Feist
New Jersey Nets vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: New Jersey Nets +14
Atlanta is a big favorite, yet the Hawks haven't been doing anything right, on a 2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS run. They were favored at home the last game against a Miami team without Jermaine O'Neal, but lost 92-75. Joe Johnson scored 11 and was the only starter in double figures for Atlanta, which is 2-6 since Dec. 19 and 1-6 this season when scoring less than 96 points. New Jersey comes to town playing better defense under their second coach. They are 2-1 ATS this season as a dog of +14 or more. Play the Nets.
Tom Freese
George Washington at St. Bonaventure
Prediction: St. Bonaventure
St. Bonaventure is 8-1 ATS their last 9 home games and they are 9-2 ATS their last 11 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. The Bonnies are 7-3 ATS their last 10 Conference games and they are 7-2 ATS off a straight up loss. George Washington is 9-19-2 ATS their last 30 road games and they are 0-4 ATS off a straight up win. The Colonials are 7-19-2 ATS their last 26 games as road underdogs 0.5 to 6.5 points and they are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games overall. PLAY ON ST BONAVENTURE -