JR TIPS
Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers
LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers are playing great basketball and tonight they host the Washington Wizards who played last night in Philadelphia. The Wizards won outright as an underdog in that game as Gilbert Arenas’ has taking his game to another level ever since his gun issue. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 13-3 at home this season and 16-6 against Eastern opponents while the Washington Wizards are 6-12 on the road this season and 9-11 against Eastern opponents. The Wizards are averaging 97.7 points a game and holding teams to 102.9 points on defense. These two teams have played twice already this year and the Cavaliers won the first meeting 102-92 at home and the Wizards won 108-91 at home. The Wizards aren't as bad as their record indicates as they have played a lot of close games with the deadly trio of Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antwain Jamison. The Wizards get up for a big game like this one as each team has won 5 times the last 10 times they played each other. The Cavaliers are 5-11 ATS at home and if Gilbert Arenas isn't suspended, 13 points is too much to give to this Wizard team.
Pick: Wizards +13.5 & lean towards the OVER 195
Karl Garrett
NC Charlotte +12 at TENNESSEE
G-Man hitting the college basketball floor tonight for a play on the 49ers plus the points at Tennessee.
The Volunteers just played a big in-state showdown game against Memphis, picking up the 66-59 outright win as the small road dog. Next up for Bruce Pearl's team is a Saturday home showdown with # 1 rated Kansas.
You think the 49ers are coming into this game a little bit under the Vols radar?
Bobby Lutz' team is off to a 10-3 start, and have covered 3 of their 5 lined away games this season, while Tennessee has dropped 2 of 3 against the spread at home this season.
With the Jayhawks on the horizon for the Volunteers, I look for Charlotte to give the Vols a game tonight in Knoxville.
Take the points.
3♦ CHARLOTTE
Chris Jordan
Georgia State at UNC WILMINGTON -5'
After watching Georgia State lay an egg the other night, I can't imagine it comes to Wilmington with any kind of momentum and challenges the Seahawks.
UNC Wilmington is in off a 62-61 win over William and Mary, which had its 10-game winning streak snapped. And that wasn't just any ol' win, as the Tribe began making headlines.
William and Mary became the first Colonial Athletic team to go into ACC country and come away with two wins, beating Wake Forest in November 78-68 and besting Maryland 83-77 Dec. 30.
The Tribe also went into that game leading the CAA in field goal, free throw and 3-point field goal percentage. Only three teams nationally lead their conferences in all three categories.
But Monday night, UNC Wilmington was better.
And tonight, the Seahawks will be much better than a Panthers team that is coming off a 72-57 loss to Drexelm which handed GSU its first home loss of the season.
Wilmington should be fired up for this one, being in double-revenge, after Georgia State captured both meetings last season.
Lay the points with Wilmington tonight.
2♦ UNC WILMINGTON
Dominic Fazzini
UNLV at BYU -9
I came within a basket of hitting my complimentary selection Tuesday with the Bobcats, but they let Chicago get closer than I expected in the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, I'm still on a free-play run of 53-33-1, including 36-20-1 over the past 57 days, and I've got a winning college hoops play for you today!
BYU has dominated five of the last six halves of basketball it has played against UNLV in Provo, Utah, the last three seasons. Somehow the Rebels managed a 76-70 victory on the road last year against the Cougars, but that was after they were down 13 points at halftime. That followed UNLV losses the previous two years at Provo by scores of 74-48 and 90-63, so I see another BYU rout unfolding tonight, especially with the Rebels not having played since Christmas.
Cougars guard Jimmer Fredette is the early front-runner for Mountain West player of the year, averaging 21.6 points and 5.6 assists per game. He leads an offense that is averaging 85.1 ppg on the season, including an average of 96.6 points over its past five games, shooting 61.1 percent during that stretch.
And BYU is allowing just 62.1 ppg on the season, so it's capable of playing strong defense, as well. And while the Rebels are shooting a respectable 45 percent from the field this season, they have been awful from long distance, making just 30 percent of their 3-point attempts. UNLV also lacks consistent scoring in the paint, which is going to hurt it against the Cougars.
The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between the teams. BYU is on ATS streaks of 4-0 at home, 4-0 as a home favorite, 5-2 as a favorite and 5-2 overall. The Rebels are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games. Take the Cougars to win by at least a dozen points tonight.
3♦ BYU
Scott Spreitzer
Memphis at Syracuse
The Orange lost their perfect season with a defeat at the hands of the Pitt Panthers. But a return to the win column should come in blowout fashion tonight. Memphis will try to "run" the floor with Syracuse. It's the Tigers' style, but that will get them in a heap of trouble against this team. The Orange faced a "game" North Carolina school earlier this season, and blew the doors off the arena in a big-time blowout. Obviously, these Memphis Tigers won't remind anyone of the UNC Tar Heels, other than the fact that they'll attempt to run with the Orange. Syracuse is 5-1 ATS as a favorite of 7 to 12 1/2 points and they're 16-5 ATS in their last 21 when laying points. Meanwhile, the Tigers have dropped four straight ATS in non-conference tilts. Memphis connects on 45% of their shots overall, but just 39.8% in road games. That's great news for the 'Cuse, who are 9-1 at home with an average margin of 25 ppg. The Orange have held their 10 "guests" to 36% shooting, while forcing 20 turnovers per game. I expect a huge bounce-back tonight, and I'm laying the points with Syracuse.
Play on: Syrcause
VEGAS EXPERTS
Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz
The Jazz could be without PG Deron Williams here, which would be a big loss. Memphis is a very solid under the radar team. Since losing to Utah at the end of November, the Grizz has won 11 of its last 16 games, covering the spread 12 times. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS playing with revenge this season and are off road wins in Phoenix and Portland. Utah is off back to back losses at home to Denver and New Orleans.
Play on: Memphis
Hollywood Sports
Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Clippers are playing better basketball as of late. After enduring a tough six-game road trip, the Clippers returned home to defeat the Celtics 92-90 on December 27th. That upset victory began a 3-1 stretch for the Clips where they covered the spread in all four of those games. Over their last five games, the Clippers have shot 50% from the field. In their 105-95 win over Portland on Monday, the Clippers shot a sizzling 57.7% from the field. With a day off to prepare for their cross-town rival Lakers, this upstart club should be chomping at the bit to prove themselves. The Lakers will likely be flat for this meeting as they have been underachieving as of late. Despite going 2-1 straight-up, the Lakers had failed to cover in three straight games before demolishing the Mavericks last Sunday by a 131-96 score. Kobe and Company had a date with the Houston Rockets last night in a game that should have the Lakers' full attention since these Rockets defeated them in their last meeting on November 15th by a 101-91 score. And, as expected, the Lakers put on a exhibition of defensive dominance by holding Houston to under 80 points on the way to their 88-79 victory. Expect an emotional letdown from the defending champs after that opportunity for revenge last night. Furthermore, the Lakers have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last ten games when playing without rest. Tough spot for the Lakers. Take the Clippers with the points.
LT Profits
East Carolina @ UAB
We hate laying double digits, and we would never lay the 18 points or so that the UAB Blazers are favored by over the East Carolina Pirates. However, we do think that this posted total is rather low, considering that UAB could easily score in the 80s tonight.
This may be not apparent by looking at just raw numbers, as the Blazers are averaging 70.9 points per game overall vs. Division I foes while shooting 44.9 percent from the floor. Meanwhile, the East Carolina defense is generously allowing 78.2 points on 44.2 percent shooting, so without looking deeper, one would expect around 74 points from UAB tonight.
However, when we look at the Pomeroy Ratings adjusted for Strength of Schedule, UAB has an offensive efficiency of 1.069 points per possession, while the Pirates defense has been even worse than the raw numbers would indicate, as they have a defensive PPP of 1.048, ranking 240 in the country. Thus we feel that you can safely add 10 points to the raw Blazers projection, especially here at home, which now grades them out at 84 points.
Even if we are less liberal and give UAB 80 points, that would mean East Carolina would only need 58 points or more to push this game Over. Well, the Pirates are averaging 70..6 points overall, and even if we deduct 10 points for facing a stout UAB defense that is allowing 59.6 points per game, that still leaves East Carolina with 60 points.
Now add in the potential garbage points at the end, as the Blazers figure to have around a 20-point lead late, and this low posted Over looks even more enticing.
The bottom line here is that with a normal 40-minute game, we project UAB winning this game something like 80-60, which is already 140 points, and if you factor in about four minutes of garbage time at the end, we actually see that final total increasing a tad.
Pick: East Carolina, UAB Over 137
LARRY NESS
Detroit Pistons @ San Antonio Spurs
PICK: San Antonio Spurs -9
John Kuester is enduring a tough first season with the Pistons. All Stars Prince and Hamilton have each missed significant time (both have returned to play the last four games) but it's not easy to compete in this league with an aging Ben Wallace and an unproven Jerebko in the starting lineup. Those two combined for eight points last night at Dallas, where the Pistons lost their 10th straight game. Detroit hasn't lost this many consecutive games since it finished the 1993-94 season on a 13-game slide to finish 20-62. Don't look now but the Pistons's 11-22 mark has them on pace to win about 27 games this year. Gordon (18.1) and Villanueva (13.9-5.3) are both coming off the bench but are quality players, while the team's new "go-to guy" is Rodney Stuckey (19.0-4.4 APG). Meanwhile, the Spurs are playing well after a so-so start. They've won 11 of their last 14 to move to 20-12 and are 14-5 SU (11-7-1 ATS) at home. San Antonio still relies on its "Big three" (Duncan, Ginobili and Parker) but I really like the additions of Jefferson (13.1-3.9-2.4), rookie Blair (6.8-5.7), McDyess (5.5-5.6), Bogans (5.1 and another 40% three-point shooter) plus the continued improvement of Parker's backup, Hill (9.4-2.2 APG). The Pistons lost last night in Dallas but they did end a nine-game ATS losing streak. However, I expect an 11th staright loss tonight and for them to fall to 1-10 ATS. Lay the points with the Spurs.
EZWINNERS
Pheonix Suns -5
The Suns cashed in for us as a free winner last night against the Kings and I am right back on them tonight as they host the Rockets. Both of these teams are playing on back to back nights, but Houston is only 1-5 against the spread in the second of back to back games. The Suns already own a victory over the Rockets in Houston this season and after a strong start, Houston seems to be slumping and has lost four out of their last seven games. The straight up winner is 14-1 against the spread in Houston's last fifteen games. Lay the points.
Drew Gordon
Detroit at SAN ANTONIO -9
31-21-3 roll over L55 Free Plays, incl. Miami (OH) covering at Colorado last night and the Heat the night before! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Pistons/Spurs match up.
This is an interesting match up, because I know some bettors are expecting the Pistons to build off their first cover in their L10 games (vs Dallas in their last one), but I disagree wholeheartedly for several reasons.
First, there's two situational factors that are working against the Pistons: A. Detroit will be playing in the tail-end of a back-to-back, making for tired legs and unfocused defense. Repeating their solid offensive effort they displayed against the Mavericks last night (47.5% shooting) is highly unlikely when you consider the fatigue factor.
And B. They're playing a Spurs team, not only coming off a loss, but coming off an ugly loss. Spurs are 3-0-1 ATS in their L4 coming off an ATS loss, but more importantly, they were pissed at their effort in Toronto... With 3 days to think about that loss, I'm expecting a "max" effort here as they return home.
That brings me to my final point: the Spurs outstanding home play. Year in and year out, the AT&T Center is one of the toughest places to steal a win, and its no different this season! San Antonio is not only 14-5 SU & 11-7 ATS at home, but their L6 home wins have been by an average of 16 points! When you throw all the factors in together: fatigue, motivation coming off an ugly loss, & home court... You get the perfect recipe for a Spurs blowout tonight!
Take San Antonio over Detroit in this NBA match up.
2♦ SAN ANTONIO
Brett Atkins
I'm 16-11-1 with my last 28 free selections and delivering another winner tonight, this time on the college hardwood with a comp play on Memphis as the Tigers travel to Syracuse.
This one is going to be a lot closer than the books expect. Memphis has already faced top-ranked Kansas and taken them right down to the wire and 14th-ranked Tennessee.
The Tigers easily covered against the Jayhawks as 10 ½-point underdogs but failed to cover against Tennessee. They’ve averaged 83 points a game in their road contests this season and shot the ball at a 50 percent clip on the highway.
Syracuse is also a team that averages a ton of points, putting up 86.6 a game this season and shooting 53.7 percent from the floor. But Saturday they were upset in their Big East opener, falling 82-72 as an 11-point favorite against Pitt. The Panthers played some defense and were able to get past the Orangemen.
Memphis is on ATS runs of 14-5 against winning teams and 4-0 on Wednesdays. I like the way this Memphis team has battled this season in the wake of a lot of controversy. Grab the points and play the Tigers.
3♦ MEMPHIS
Jay McNeil
I'm 9-5 over the last 14 days with my free plays after San Diego State won and covered Tuesday night against New Mexico. Now I'm headed to the NBA to gain another win tonight!
The Spurs have won six of their last seven games at home against Detroit, with the victories coming by an average of 16 points.
The Pistons enter tonight's game having lost their 10th straight game Tuesday at Dallas 98-93, and they are just 3-14 on the road this season.
Injuries have hit Detroit hard this season, and even though it is getting its nucleus back, the team just isn't playing good basketball at all, especially on offense, shooting less than 41 percent during its 10-game slide.
San Antonio is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall and 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite. Detroit, on the other hand, is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games overall, 1-6 ATS as an underdog, 1-5 ATS on the road and 1-5 ATS as a road underdog. Take the Spurs to win by a dozen points tonight.
3♦ SAN ANTONIO
Charley Sutton
I delivered yesterday as Iowa and Georgia Tech stay Under the Total, just like I said they would. Tonight, I’m handing you another Total winner in a bowl game as I’m taking the Over in the GMAC Bowl.
The number for this game is hovering around 63 1/2 points, depending on where you’re playing this. It won’t matter because these two are going well Over that number.
Coming into this game Troy has gone Over the Total in 3 straight games and has seen the Total go 6-1 its last 7 games. Also, the Over is on a 10-1 run in the Trojans’ last 11 games when installed as an underdog and it has come in 10 of the team’s last 14 non-conference games.
On the other side, though Central Michigan has gone Over the Total in just 2 of its last 4 games, the Over has gone 11-5-1 the team’s last 17 non-conference games and it is 4-1 the team’s last 5 games when installed as a favorite of between 1/2 and 3 points.
These two will put up plenty of points and go well Over the Total tonight.
3 ♦ TROY-CENTRAL MICHIGAN OVER
Joel Tyson
Blowout Time in the NBA on Wednesday, as Atlanta - losers of a season-high 4 in a row - gets to take it out on New Jersey.
The Nets are on a 2-6 road spread run their last 8, and just 5-12 overall against the spread on the highway this year. That includes a 23-point loss at Atlanta back on Decmber 13th.
The Hawks are 12-4 straight up at home, and 11-5 against the spread in those home games. Chances they end their 4-game slide with a double-digit blowout seem better than average if you ask me!
Lay the wood.
5♦ ATLANTA