Chuck O'Brien
Take USC in a virtual pick-em spot at Stanford in Pac-10 hoops action Wednesday.
The Trojans were dealt a serious blow this week when it was announced that past NCAA rules violations under former coach Tim Floyd cost this year’s team any shot at the postseason. As unfair as that ruling was, I actually expect it to galvanize this young team, which is already off to a tremendous 10-4 start, including an ongoing eight-game winning streak.
Over the last 2½ weeks, USC has defeated Tennessee (77-55), St. Mary’s (60-49), UNLV (67-56) and Pac-10 foes Arizona (56-50) and Arizona State (47-37). You’ll notice a common thread in those games, and that’s strong defense. USC has given up 56 points or less in every game during its current eight-game winning streak (average of 48.4 ppg!).
As for Stanford, it is now below .500 on the season (6-7) after losing four of its last five games. The four losses all came against teams from power conferences (Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Texas Tech and Cal). At Cal on Saturday, the Cardinal lost 92-66 as a 12½-point underdog, their sixth straight non-cover!
These are two teams going in totally opposite directions, and with USC’s players rallying around each other in the wake of the postseason ban, they’ll continue to play well – and extend Stanford’s troubles.
2♦ USC TROJANS
DUNKEL INDEX
Troy vs. Central Michigan
The Chippewas look to build on their 8-1-2 ATS record in their last 11 games when favored from 1 to 3 points. Central Michigan is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Chippewas favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-3)
Game 265-266: Troy vs. Central Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 86.078; Central Michigan 92.044
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 6; 68
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 3; 63
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-3); Over
NBA
Golden State at Minnesota
The Warriors look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as an underdog. Golden State is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the T'wolves favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 6
Game 501-502: Washington at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 114.634; Cleveland 125.045
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 10 1/2; 204
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 13 1/2; 194
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+13 1/2); Over
Game 503-504: New Jersey at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 105.578; Atlanta 125.929
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 20 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 13; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-13); Over
Game 505-506: Toronto at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 116.532; Orlando 126.937
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 10 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 7; 204
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-7); Over
Game 507-508: Boston at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 122.678; Miami 119.985
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 1; 188
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-1); Over
Game 509-510: New Orleans at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 116.648; Oklahoma City 120.566
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 4; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5 1/2; 192
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+5 1/2); Over
Game 511-512: Golden State at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 113.641; Minnesota 114.175
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 225
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+3 1/2); Under
Game 513-514: Detroit at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 109.309; San Antonio 127.154
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 18; 185
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 9 1/2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-9 1/2); Under
Game 515-516: Memphis at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 119.555; Utah 123.740
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 4; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 6 1/2; 206 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+6 1/2); Over
Game 517-518: Houston at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 116.236; Phoenix 126.491
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 10 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 4 1/2; 217
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-4 1/2); Under
Game 519-520: LA Lakers at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 118.686; LA Clippers 118.301
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 196
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+5 1/2); Under
NCAAB
Duke at Iowa State
The Cyclones are coming off an 82-75 OT win over Houston and look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games following a SU win. Iowa State is the pick (+13 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Devils favored by only 11. Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+13 1/2)
Game 521-522: Wisconsin at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 71.517; Michigan State 76.816
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (+6)
Game 523-524: Rutgers at West Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 54.536; West Virginia 77.241
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 18
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 22 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-18)
Game 525-526: VCU at Drexel
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 61.874; Drexel 58.902
Dunkel Line: VCU by 3
Vegas Line: VCU by 1
Dunkel Pick: VCU (-1)
Game 527-528: James Madison at Old Dominion
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 50.383; Old Dominion 68.615
Dunkel Line: Old Dominion by 18
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (-15 1/2)
Game 529-530: Towson at Hofstra
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 47.605; Hofstra 58.974
Dunkel Line: Hofstra by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Hofstra by 11
Dunkel Pick: Hofstra (-11)
Game 531-532: William & Mary at Delaware
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 58.231; Delaware 53.021
Dunkel Line: William & Mary by 5
Vegas Line: William & Mary by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+6 1/2)
Game 533-534: Charlotte at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 60.022; Tennessee 76.495
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-10 1/2)
Game 535-536: Louisville at Providence
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 69.265; Providence 61.997
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Louisville by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-3 1/2)
Game 537-538: Memphis at Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 69.133; Syracuse 81.531
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 12
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-8 1/2)
Game 539-540: Georgia State at NC Wilmington
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 52.522; NC Wilmington 56.629
Dunkel Line: NC Wilmington by 4
Vegas Line: NC Wilmington by 6
Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (+6)
Game 541-542: St. Joseph's at Temple
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 51.930; Temple 68.944
Dunkel Line: Temple by 17
Vegas Line: Temple by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Temple (-14 1/2)
Game 543-544: Richmond at Duquesne
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 63.255; Duquesne 59.248
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 4
Vegas Line: Richmond by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (-2 1/2)
Game 545-546: George Washington at St. Bonaventure
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 55.301; St. Bonaventure 55.677
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 3
Dunkel Pick: George Washington (+3)
Game 547-548: Fordham at Massachusetts
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 43.430; Massachusetts 57.669
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 14
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fordham (+14 1/2)
Game 549-550: Tulane at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 51.741; Tulsa 73.815
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 22
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 15
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-15)
Game 551-552: Cornell at Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 59.727; Kansas 86.407
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 26 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas by 22 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-22 1/2)
Game 553-554: Illinois State at Evansville
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 62.455; Evansville 55.300
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 7
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Illinois State (-5)
Game 555-556: Indiana State at Bradley
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 56.809; Bradley 58.497
Dunkel Line: Bradley by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Bradley by 4
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (+4)
Game 557-558: Drake at Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 48.683; Creighton 62.464
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 14
Dunkel Pick: Drake (+14)
Game 559-560: Wichita State at Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 61.327; Missouri State 66.710
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Missouri State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri State (-2 1/2)
Game 561-562: Colorado State at Wyoming
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 51.983; Wyoming 55.502
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 3
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (-3)
Game 563-564: DePaul at Villanova
Dunkel Ratings: DePaul 53.903; Villanova 68.701
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 15
Vegas Line: Villanova by 18
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+18)
Game 565-566: East Carolina at UAB
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 51.604; UAB 69.806
Dunkel Line: UAB by 18
Vegas Line: UAB by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (+18 1/2)
Game 567-568: Georgetown at Marquette
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 70.965; Marquette 72.049
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 1
Vegas Line: Marquette by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (+2 1/2)
Game 569-570: Indiana at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 59.361; Ohio State 70.466
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 11
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+12 1/2)
Game 571-572: Seton Hall at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Seton Hall 66.568; Connecticut 73.504
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 7
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-6 1/2)
Game 573-574: Air Force at TCU
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 52.210; TCU 60.499
Dunkel Line: TCU by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: TCU by 8
Dunkel Pick: TCU (-8)
Game 575-576: Northern Iowa at Southern Illinois
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 65.544; Southern Illinois 63.142
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa
Game 577-578: Houston at Rice
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 60.766; Rice 57.106
Dunkel Line: Houston by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rice (+6 1/2)
Game 579-580: SMU at UTEP
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 50.597; UTEP 68.939
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: UTEP by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-17 1/2)
Game 581-582: Duke at Iowa State
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 79.003; Iowa State 68.238
Dunkel Line: Duke by 11
Vegas Line: Duke by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa State (+13 1/2)
Game 583-584: USC at Stanford
Dunkel Ratings: USC 65.564; Stanford 66.224
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 1
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Stanford
Game 585-586: UNLV at BYU
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 64.800; BYU 74.635
Dunkel Line: BYU by 10
Vegas Line: BYU by 9
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-9)
Game 587-588: UCLA at California
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 58.347; California 75.964
Dunkel Line: California by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: California by 16
Dunkel Pick: California (-16)
Game 589-590: The Citadel at Appalachian State
Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 50.478; Appalachian State 58.011
Dunkel Line: Appalachian State by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Appalachian State by 7
Dunkel Pick: Appalachian State (-7)
Game 591-592: Chattanooga at Georgia Southern
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 41.738; Georgia Southern 43.825
Dunkel Line: Georgia Southern by 2
Vegas Line: Georgia Southern by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chattanooga (+2 1/2)
Game 593-594: Princeton at Marist
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 52.904; Marist 43.634
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Princeton by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (-3 1/2)
Game 595-596: Ohio at IUPUI
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 55.469; IUPUI 59.034
Dunkel Line: IUPUI by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
Calgary at Minnesota
The Wild look to build on their 15-7 record in their last 22 home games. Minnesota is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Wild favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-110)
Game 51-52: Dallas at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.101; NY Rangers 11.148
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-140); Over
Game 53-54: Tampa Bay at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 10.739; Buffalo 11.718
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-200); Under
Game 55-56: Toronto at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 11.513; Philadelphia 11.379
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-180); 6
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+160); Under
Game 57-58: Calgary at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.500; Minnesota 11.606
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-110); Under
Game 59-60: NY Islanders at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 10.674; Colorado 11.728
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-160); Under
Game 61-62: St. Louis at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 10.792; San Jose 13.170
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 2 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-230); Under
Lenny Del Genio
BOS -1 vs MIA
Look for the Celtics to cool off the Heat, who come off a big 17-point home win over Atlanta Monday night. We were encouraged enough by the news that both Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo are expected to play here to look past the team's current three-game road losing streak as they won here 92-85 back on November 29th. If Dwyane Wade does not score 30 points, Miami typically loses and we can't see D-Wade putting up those kind of numbers against a Celtics defense that allows just 92.7 PPG, an Eastern Conference best. Wade is averaging just 20 PPG his last eight games vs. Boston, who is on a 9-1 SU run in this head to head series. With such a low line, all we need is a SU win here. Both teams are off home division wins. The Celtics are 11-5 ATS in that role while the Heat are 2-9 vs. the number. Take Boston.
John Ryan
Wisconsin at Michigan State
Prediction: Wisconsin
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Wisconsin as they take to the road to face Big-10 rival Michigan State set to start at 6:30 EST. AiS shows a 70% probability that Wisconsin will lose this game by 5 or fewer points. Based on my research this game certainly old be a big upset. AiS shows an 88% probability that Wisconsin will score between 67 and 74 points. Note that Wisconsin is a solid 9-1 against the money line (+10.8 Units) in road games when they score 67 to 74 points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Also supporting Wisconsin is a proven money making system sporting a 48-18 ATS record for 73% winners since 2004. Play on dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite facing an opponent off a road win. MSU is obviously an elite team and rebound well, but Wisconsin is a solid 31-14 ATS (+15.6 Units) versus teams who average 40 or more rebounds/game on the season since 1997. Take Wisconsin and look for a possible upset. Adding a 1* amount to the money line is what I intend to do on this game.
Ben Burns
Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers
Prediction: Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers aren't the biggest favorite in the board tonight (Sharks and Sabres are bigger) but I feel they've got at least as much chance of a victory as any team on tonight's schedule. The Leafs rallied to beat Florida last night. However, the Flyers are much stronger than the Panthers and the Leafs are just 12-22 (-5.3) the past few seasons, when playing the second of back to back games.
During the same stretch the Flyers, who haven't played since Sunday, have gone 25-16 (+5.8) when playing with two day's off in between games. That includes a perfect 3-0 mark in that situation this season.
The Flyers have beaten the Leafs twice in a row here at Philadelphia. They won those games by a combined score of 12-6. Yes, tonight's price is on the 'steep' side. However, when we consider that the Flyers were laying -300 the last time they hosted the Leafs, it begins to see a lot more reasonable. Consider laying the wood.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Cleveland Cavs -13
After using a lot of energy to overcome an 18-point second half deficit to defeat the 76ers last night, I don't think the Wizards will have enough legs to keep this one within the number against a motivated Cavaliers team. The Cavs will be extremely motivated by a rare home loss to Charlotte last game, and also by a 17-point loss to Washington last month. Playing back-to-back road games is extremely tough for any team, but it has especially been hard on the Wizards, who are on a 2-11 ATS slide when playing their 2nd road game in as many days, losing in this situation by an average score of 94.4 to 112.2. The Wizards are also on a 4-16 ATS skid the last 2 seasons when coming off an upset win as an underdog, losing in these spots by an average score of 90.7 to 105.4. Take the Cavs for 1 unit.
Rob Vinciletti
Georgetown vs. Marquette
Play: Georgetown +2
The Hoyas are a solid team once again this year at 11-1 and tonight they have big statistical edges in both shooting and defending against Marquette. G-town is 9-1 vs winning teams and 30-11 after allowing 60 or less points in their last game. Marquette is a decent team. However they are just 3-5 vs winning teams and have lost failing to cover in all three games when the total is set at 130 to 140. Take the points with Georgetown tonight.
ALEX SMART
Wisconsin @ Michigan State
PICK: Over 134
If you look up the definition of a stifling defense in the dictionary, you're going to see a big old picture of Bucky the Badger. Wisconsin has held three straight opponents to less than 50 points and has kept five straight from scoring 60. Opposing teams are only pouring in 56.4 points per game against the Badgers, the fifth best mark in the country. In five games played away from the Kohl Center, Wiscy has allowed a significantly worse 67.6 points per game, a number which probably needs to improve if it is to pull off the upset and move to 3-0 in conference.
The offensively prolific Spartans should be in for a tough task trying to score on this Wisconsin 'D'. G Kalin Lucas paces all scores for MSU, averaging 16.1 points per game. He is one of five players that are averaging double digits in scoring though, proving that HC Tom Izzo once again has a great chance of leading his team deep into the NCAA Tournament. Michigan State has dominated the glass all season long, outrebounding its opponents 37.6-26.1 per game. The Badgers do a solid job on the glass themselves, which should set up another great showdown to watch on the inside.
Even though the Badgers come in ranked the 5th best scoring defense in the country (56.4 PPG), they’ve already shown to be a bit more charitable to their hosts on the road where they’ve allowed 67 PPG. MSU and its 20th ranked scoring attack (82.4 PPG) will unmercifully bombard the Badgers in this one, as it knows Wiscy will be hard pressed to match points with them in this spot. MSU is 10-1 ATS to the over when it’s allowed 67 to 74 points in a game the L/2 seasons, and with Wisconsin averaging 72 on the year, they can do 5-points worse than their average and we’re still sitting pretty “historically” with this position. Look for the first meeting of these B10 heavyweights to cruise past this short ‘total’.
MATT FARGO
Cornell @ Kansas
PICK: Cornell +22
This is risky going up against the top team in the nation but a massive amount of points has us taking. Kansas is the best team in the country without much of an argument but this is a pretty tough spot. Yes, the Jayhawks have won 50 straight games at Allen Fieldhouse and a lot of those have been blowouts but Kansas is coming off a road win at Temple and it has another road game at Tennessee on Sunday making this a difficult one to get up for. The Jayhawks are well aware of the recent success for Cornell so they certainly will not be looking past the Big Red but this is a ton of points to cover against a big time quality opponent. Cornell enters this game with a 12-2 record and it is currently riding a 10-game winning streak. The Big Red have actually played a tougher schedule than Kansas this season and the results have been favorable with some quality wins on the slate. They are 9-1 away from home which is the best winning percentage in the nation and included among Cornell’s road wins are victories over teams from the SEC (Alabama), the Big East (St. John’s), the Atlantic 10 (Massachusetts and La Salle), as well as perennial mid-major powers Bucknell, Davidson and Vermont. Overall, Cornell’s 12-2 record after 14 games is tied for the best start in school history. If Kansas does pull out to a big lead, every point is going to count for Cornell and that means free throws become very important. The top four players in the backcourt, Louis Dale, Geoff Reeves, Ryan Wittman and Chris Wroblewski have made 91-105 free throws this season (86.7 percent), including 36-42 in the final three minutes of games within 10 points (85.7 percent). Cornell also has a nice situation on its side. Play against favorites of 20 or more points that are coming off a win against the number and playing only their 2nd game in eight days. This situation is 83-33 ATS (71.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Also, Cornell will be getting senior guard Louis Dale back in the lineup tonight after he missed the last three games with an ankle injury. 3* Cornell Big Red
TEDDY COVERS
Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves
PICK: Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5
Golden State suffered an absolutely brutal loss in Denver last night, with two extremely controversial calls going against them in the final five seconds of the game, resulting in a one point defeat at the hands of the Nuggets. Watching the Warriors body language as they left the floor following a game in which they played their guts out, only to have victory stolen by the zebras, Golden State appears to be a ‘bet-against’ squad in Minnesota tonight.
The Warriors are 3-17 on the road this year, in a pointspread range tonight that they’ll need to win (or come pretty darn close) in order to cover the number. They are 4-16 SU in their last 20 games, not a team playing with passion and purpose on a nightly basis. They’ve been injury riddled all year, with starting center Rony Turiaf the latest to go down after rolling his ankle last night. Don Nelson’s squad hasn’t won in a back-2-back situation since the second week of the season, losing their last seven tries in this role. The Warriors are most assuredly a ‘bet-against’ squad this evening.
Last January, Minnesota morphed from a bottom feeder into a pointspread machine, ripping off a 10-2 SU run following their 6-25 start, led by Kevin Love and Al Jefferson in the paint. Love and Jefferson are primed to lead another January run in 2010, particularly against a Warriors team with no interior defense whatsoever without a healthy Turiaf. With three days off to prep for this one following a disappointing 0-4 run in a brutal ‘four games in five nights’ span over New Year’s, look for Minnesota to avenge their 41 point loss at the hands of the Warriors back in November with a solid win and cover here. 2* Take Minnesota.
Mark Franco
New Orleans Hornets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder -4½
This young Thunder team led by Kevin Durant has been playing solid ball and will get the victory tonight. New Orleans is just 12-24 ATS as road underdog while the Thunder are 8-0 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 ATS. Back OKC at home tonight.
Dave Price
1 Unit on OKC Thunder -5
The Hornets are just 3-13 on the road this season, and I'll fade them tonight against a Thunder team that is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 107.0 to 95.6. The Thunder have dropped 9 straight to the Hornets so they will be especially motivated to get the job done at home tonight. Lay the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Detroit +9½ over SAN ANTONIO
The Pistons were off for five days prior to last night’s game in Dallas so playing back-to-back should not be much of a concern. These two have traditionally played very close games over the years and although that was then and this is now, the Pistons really played a decent game last night and it’s something they can build on. You can see when teams are at low peaks or headed that way and the same goes for high peaks and with some healthy bodies back and with time to practice, the Pistons could very well go on a competitive run over the next couple of weeks. This team is not as bad as its record indicates. The Spurs are 20-12 but keep beating up on weak teams and has played the NBA’s easiest schedule to date. Its last eight wins have come in order against Golden State, Indiana, the Clip Joint, Milwaukee, New York, Minnesota, Miami and Washington. There’s one team in that group above .500 and the only other teams the Spurs played over its last 10 games that are close to or above .500 is Toronto and Portland and the Spurs lost them both. Of course the Pistons can be considered a garbage team as well but trusting these Spurs as a big favorite against a team that will come to play tonight is likely a big mistake. Play: Detroit +9½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
New Orleans +1.75 over OKLAHOMA CITY
This is not the greatest spot for the Thunder. They return home from a two-game trip but they’ve played four of its last five on the road. Furthermore, this will mark the 10th straight game in which they’ve had to travel to play its next opponent. The last time the Thunder played consecutive home games was back in mid-December. Furthermore, the Thunder has had nothing but trouble against this club and that includes a four-game sweep last season. This is their first meeting of the year and the Hornets come in with a ton of confidence after six wins in nine games and winners of three straight. The Hornets are also playing tremendous defense, as they held its last three opponents to 91, 95 and 87 points respectively. When a team is dialed in defensively like the Hornets are right now they’re extremely difficult to beat. The Thunder are an exciting young team with plenty of upside and they’re also very warm with six wins in its last seven games. However, its last four wins came against New Jersey, Washington, Utah and Chicago and you can throw in an OT loss at Milwaukee in between. This has just been a difficult match-up for Ok City and it’s not the best situational spot for them either. Play: New Orleans +1.75 (Risking 2 units).
ATLANTA –13 over New Jersey
The Nets have trouble scoring 90 points a game and now they’re about to enter the den of a lion. You see, the Hawks have dropped four straight and it’s not that they dropped four straight that’s so bad, it’s how they played and to whom. Atlanta dropped two straight to the Cav’s, which is no big deal but they wanted it badly and the losses seemed to have taken the wind out of its sail. They followed that up with a loss to the Knicks in OT and subsequently were buried by the Heat in its last game. The Hawks have the Celtics up next and need to get focused again and they couldn’t have handpicked a better team to go up against to get its swagger back. The Hawks are an elite team with a tremendous offense and its frustrations over the last four games can be taken out here against this rancid guest. The last time these two played the Hawks put up 130 points and won by 23. That’s when they were in a good mood. Tonight they’ll be in a foul mood and will show no sympathy whatsoever. Play: Atlanta –13 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Tampa Bay +1.82 over BUFFALO (REG)
The Lightning may not win this game but they should not be this big a price against anyone and therefore they’re most definitely worthy of some consideration. This intruder is well rested, as they’ve been off since Jan 2 and they possess a 3-0-1 record when given three days rest between games. Furthermore, goaltender Mike Smith is playing tremendous at the moment and so in fact, is the Lightning. They’ve won three of its last four and five of seven to move within a single point of playoff contention. The Sabres are tough for sure, especially at home but this game is sandwiched between games against Montreal and Toronto and perhaps the Sabres focus will be off a bit. The Sabres have won four in a row but they really haven’t looked that great in doing so and three of the four losses were against badly slumping teams, St. Louis, Atlanta and Pittsburgh. Prior to that they had lost four of six and they appear to be more beatable right now than at any other time this year. The Lightning has not played to its potential yet, as this is a very good team that can really wake up and go on a tear at any point. Overlay. Play: Tampa Bay +1.82 (Risking 2 units).
WUNDERDOG
Game: Fordham at Umass
Pick: Fordham +15
Umass is living in the public eye off their big win vs Memphis, but otherwise they have really shown nothing. The Minutemen struggled at Central Florida, losing by 17, and had Quinnipiac at home in a barn-burner where they held on to win by four. The Rams certainly are a beatable team, but if Umass can struggle against the weak teams, as they have, and play tough against the big teams, it shows they are one of those kind of teams that don't show up against the cupcakes allowing them to stay within the number. That might be the reason the Umass home mark of 2-5 ATS in their last seven is present. They have also not played a lined game at home this year as a favorite. I like Fordham to stay inside a lofty number here.
Jack Jones
Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 over New Orleans Hornets
New Orleans is just 3-13 on the road this year, giving up 103.9 ppg against teams normally scoring 100.9 ppg. The Hornets aren't just playing fast-paced games in which they score a lot of points as well, evidenced by their 96.7 ppg against teams allowing 100.4 ppg. Oklahoma City is fighting for respectability and wants to make the playoffs this season. They are 9-7 at home where they rely on their defense to win games. This Thunder team is average on offense, but allows just 95.1 ppg to teams who score 99.6 ppg on average. Sure the Hornets have won three games in a row (all four point wins), but the Thunder have won six of their last seven with several double digit victories in that span. Oklahoma City is a team that has taken care of business too, who is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of between 3.5 to 9.5 points this year. I think they keep that streak going tonight with a big win over New Orleans.