Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on LA Clippers +5
The Clippers are playing their best ball of the season, winning 3 of their last 4 with 2 of those coming against Boston and Portland. The Clippers have played the Lakers tough in each of the last 3 meetings, covering the spread in all 3, and I like their chances again tonight against a Lakers team that just played last night and that is expected to be without Pau Gasol. The Lakers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest and only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Take the Clippers.
Info Plays
3* on Syracuse -7
Reasons why Syracuse covers
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Home teams as a favorite or pick (SYRACUSE) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. This is a 23-4 ATS System hitting 85.2% over the last 5 seasons.
2.) Syracuse has had 3 days' rest to steam over their first loss of the season, a 72-82 loss to Pittsburgh. They'll come out hungry at home tonight as they take on the Memphis Tigers, a team that has lost to every quality opponent they have faced this year. This will only be the second true road game for Memphis this season, and they won't handle it well tonight as they play in front of a rowdy Orange crowd. Bet Syracuse at home.
Dan Bebe
MIN -2.5 vs GSW
The Warriors are in a difficult spot here, coming to town off a long battle with the Nuggets last night, and more importantly, a 1-point loss to the undermanned Nuggets.
I am not at all surprised to see this line move from 2 to 2.5 just because of the intensity of the Warriors game in Denver. Golden State is the better team between these two, but the situation dictates the line. Golden State on a back-to-back, tough game the night before in the altitude, so on and so forth, but to their credit, the Warriors did cover yet again. They've covered 5 of their last 6 games, but I fear this one might not be the right spot. Monta Ellis played over 45 minutes of the game with Denver and came up short, and I think getting the juices flowing again so quickly with road frustrations mounting every day is going to be tough.
On the Minnesota side, the Wolves have lost 4 games in a row, so they're no spring chicken, but I think they'll be happy to be home, and I think their significant size advantage might be the difference in this one. The Wolves have that pair of big boppers cleaning the glass, and I truly fear that even when Minnesota misses shots, they'll grab so many offensive rebounds that it might not matter."
Bottom line is that the Warriors struggle with larger teams on the road, and the Wolves have all kinds of size and strength on Golden State. I fully expect the Warriors to come out of the gates with a lot of energy, and to watch that level of intensity slowly wane over the course of the game. Look for Minnesota to make a push in the second half and take this game by 8 points.
King Creole
PHO / HOU Over 215
7-1 O/U since December 1st: All NBA dogs of 14 < points playing off BB SU losses... and 3 or more "UNDERS" in a row (Rockets).
6-1 O/U this season: All home teams with NO REST and a SU win (Suns)... vs an opponent also playing with NO REST off a SU loss (Rockets).
6-1 O/U since December 1st: All NBA dogs playing off a game in which they scored LESS than 80 points (Rockets).
17-5 O/U last 4 years: All .500 < road teams playing with NO REST off a SU road loss to the LA Lakers (Rockets).
11-1 O/U last 12 months: All NBA teams playing off a SU road favorite win vs the Sacramento Kings (Suns). Favorites are a PERFECT 4-0 O/U.
SPORTS INSIGHTS
New Orleans Hornets +5 over Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have been favorites of Marketwatch recently. They've been known for a few years as a beleaguered franchise with a revolving door for inconsistent young players. That they recently struck NBA Draft gold with Kevin Durant, Jeff Green and Russell Westbrook was beside the point until recently, when a 5-game win streak included victories over Phoenix and Utah and roughly coincided with a 7-game, 69-assist stretch for the young point guard, Westbrook. Aside from moving to Oklahoma City, the team also put itself in a nice position to be public darlings, as the 3 aforementioned players were all faces of elite and storied college basketball programs (Texas, Georgetown and UCLA respectively). All this is just to say that Oklahoma City is set to improve and succeed in a major, long-term way... But it may soon become harder than a frozen diamond to find value in betting on them.
Westbrook is touted as being a great defender, but he'll have his hands full tonight with Chris Paul, whose Hornets have rebounded from a disappointing start to win 3 in a row against the likes of Miami, Houston and Utah. New Orleans opened at CRIS at 5-point underdogs, and despite only receiving 38% of spread bets, the line now sits at +4.5 at most offshore books. There has been quite a bit of negative steam on both sides, and the number has been moving between 4 and 5 all day. However, we've also triggered a Smart Money play on New Orleans from Matchbook (+4.38 Units Won). Play on the Hornets to keep this one tight with the young Thunder. You can still find an extra half point at a few books, including CRIS, BetUS, Betjamaica and BetOnline.
New Orleans +5
Memphis Grizzlies +5.5 over Utah Jazz
Memphis management is largely responsible for the NBA's current power structure, as their gift of Pau Gasol to the Lakers (yes, Pau once played for another team) a couple of seasons ago for draft picks and expiring contracts has done much to determine recent playoffs and championships. However, they aren't looking quite as gullible or silly now, as another once-trampled-upon franchise is going through a bit of a resurrection. Rudy Gay was never quite enough to carry them, but surrounding him with O.J. Mayo, Zach Randolph and the younger Gasol has the Grizz off to a 17-16 start, more than respectable in the competitive West and only 1.5 games out of the playoff picture. Tonight they'll face a Utah team without their star point guard, Deron Williams, who suffered a wrist injury on Monday in a loss to New Orleans.
Utah opened as 7-point home favorites at CRIS and are getting a solid public backing, with 64% of spread, 58% of moneyline and 57% of parlay wagers. The Deron Williams injury news, which broke this afternoon, certainly has a part in the reverse line movement we've seen, as the Jazz are now -5.5 virtually across the board. However, we also have recorded a positive Smart Money play on the Grizzlies from Bet Jamaica (+6.36 Units Won). Zach Randolph has averaged 26.8 points and 16.1 rebounds over the last eight games, seven of them Memphis victories. That's a hot streak we're ready to ride.
Memphis +5.5