Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 10,2010

Marc Lawrence

Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks battle the Hawks in Atlanta Wednesday night with playoff loss revenge on their minds from last year's post-season. Milwaukee checks in with a 10-4 ATS mark in road games after having played at home the previous night, while Atlanta covered in a playoff revenger of its own against Orlando Monday night. With that look for the Hawks to dip to 3-7 ATS as favorites against unrested foes here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

Rob Vinciletti

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Hawks may be a little flat here as they have been brought back to earth losing their last 2 after a 6-0 start. Their last loss was very discouraging, from the stand point that despite their top effort they still fell short vs an Orlando Team that slaughtered them in the playoffs. Milwaukee is getting nearly 7 points here and comes in off a nice wire to wire win over the Knicks last night. The Bucks have cashed 5 straight on the road with no rest off a home game. For technical purposes we note the certain home favorites that scored 90 or less as a road dog of 5 or more points are losing propositions when taking on teams that scored 100 or more as a home favorite of 5 or more. Look for the Bucks, at the very least to stay within the Number.

DAVID CHAN

Houston @ Washington
PICK: Houston -3

Only one team finished above .500 last season and didn't make the playoffs. That team was the Houston Rockets.

So no team should have a greater sense of urgency than the 1-5 Rockets, who begin a three-game road swing tonight against Washington followed by games on Friday and Sunday against Indiana and New York.

The Rockets won't have underrated point guard Aaron Brooks, but they are better than all three of these Eastern Conference patsies, particularly the Wizards.

Washington's only victory was by one point at home in overtime against a very weak Philadelphia team. Even with exciting rookie point guard John Wall, the Wizards are a very bad team. Management knows this and is deep into the rebuilding stage. The Wizards aren't going to turn the corner until they get rid of Gilbert Arenas.

Houston is off a 26-point home victory against Minnesota. The Rockets can crush inferior foes like the Timberwolves and Wizards. The key for the Rockets is their health. Shooting guard Kevin Martin (ankle) and backup point guard Dwight Lowry (back spasms) are banged-up. Expect both to play against the Wizards, though.

Yao Ming missed all of last season following foot surgery. He's only been averaging 21 minutes per game. Expect a jump in his minutes starting tonight. The Rockets are rested having last played on Sunday.

Scott Spreitzer

Toledo @ Illinois
Pick: Illinois -30

Bruce Weber's Illini jumped out to a 38-11 lead in their opener on Monday against UC-Irvine. They led by as many as 26 in the second half, and led by 21 with roughly 90-seconds to go in the game. But for the most part, Illinois had things on cruise control for much of the second half, and failed to cover the spread in a 14-point win. As we stated the other night, Illinois returns all five starters and seven of their top eight scorers from a season ago, and they're ranked 13th in the nation. Despite the ATS loss, we learned on Monday that this Illini edition has the firepower and the attention to detail on the defensive end to be Bruce Weber's best in Champaign. And I doubt they'll let-up in the second half of this contest. Weber wants to see a "killer-instinct" that's been lacking with his program since he left Carbondale for the Big-10. The perfect team to develop that mentality against is one that's in major transition. That's the nicest way to describe Toledo under the direction of new coach Tod Kowalczyk. He takes over the program after a combined 11 wins in two seasons and off the court turmoil that cost Gene Cross his job. The problem for Kowalczyk is that Toledo loses its only two proven scorers from a season ago, returning just two starters (16 ppg combined) and some "not-ready for division-1" recruits. The new coach will have to go young this season and starting off against a talented and hungry Illini team with a game under their belt is not going to be an easy task. Illinois is on an 11-1 ATS run at home off a SU win/non-cover at home in their last outing. I'm laying the big spot with the Illini on Wednesday.

Tom Stryker

Milwaukee @ Atlanta
PICK: Atlanta -6.5

Milwaukee finally found a little offense last night. The Bucks steamrolled the Knicks 107-80! That was only the second time this season that head coach Scott Skiles' bunch was able to break the 100-point barrier. Don't be surprised if Milwaukee reverts back to its old offensive form here.

The Hawks and Bucks put on quite a show in the first round of the NBA Playoffs last season. It took seven games but Atlanta was able to advance with a 95-74 victory. The fact that this game is being played inside Philps Arena is huge for the Hawks. In this series, Hotlanta owns a sensational 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS record in its last 10 at home.

In the second of a back-to-back, Milwaukee has posted a surprising 20-5 ATS record. That team trend is noted. However, teams that go up and down against New York seem to run out of gas in their next game. According to my NBA database, unrested teams coming off an up tempo track meet against the Knicks are a soft 14-29 SU and 15-28 ATS in their next battle. If our "play on" side is rested, this quick angle tightens up to a stunning 2-16 SU and 4-14 ATS!

Coming off a pointspread win, the Hawks have cruised to a respectable 38-18-1 ATS mark. Atlanta dropped its last two games to Phoenix and Orlando. Rest assured, the Hawks won't crash land here. Take Atlanta.

JIM FEIST

WARRIORS / KNICKS
TAKE OVER

A pair of uptempo offensive teams meet in New York. Golden State is 7th in the NBA in scoring with 104.3 ppg and they catch the NY Knicks in the second of a back to back spot. That means the Warriors will push the ball at the Knicks. NY is happy to play uptempo with Amare Stoudamire and Ray Felton, but this is not a stellar defensive team. Play the Warriors/NY Knicks Over the total.

Tom Freese

Charlotte Bobcats vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Charlotte Bobcats +1

Charlotte is 1-6 straight up this year. The Bobcats are 10-4-2 ATS their last 16 games when their opponent allows 100 or more points in their last game. Charlotte is 4-0 ATS their 4 meetings in Toronto. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games vs. Atlantic Division teams. Toronto is 1-6 straight up this year. The Raptors are 3-7 ATS their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Raptors are 4-14 ATS their last 18 home games. Toronto is 3-9 ATS and they are 3-9 ATS as a home favorite and they are 7-18 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game.

James Patrick Sports

College of Charleston vs. Maryland

College Basketball tips-off with the 2K Classic on ESPNU as a pair of coaches that are quite familiar with each other put their teams through an early test in College Park, Maryland. The COC Cougars looked to be on their way to an NCAA Tournament berth until they were devastated in the Southern Conference Tournament semi-finals by Appalachian State. HC Bobby Cremins has all-conference guard Andrew Goudelock and the conference's co-defensive Player of the Year in Jeremy Simmons leading a talented group of returning players. Big Game James Patrick's complimentary selection in College Basketball is College of Charleston.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Washington Wizards +3.5

With Aaron Brooks out of the lineup, the Wizards have the big edge at the all-important point guard position with John Wall. The Rockets are coming off a blowout win over Minnesota, but they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points. Houston is 0-3 on the road this season because its defense has been atrocious. Take the Wizards and the points.

Rocketman

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings -9.5

Minnesota comes in with a 1-7 overall record this year while Sacramento sits at a decent 3-3 on the season. Minnesota is off a tough game last night against the Lakers where they kept it close losing by only 5 points. I think that took a lot out of them. Sacramento has been off for 4 days now and are well rested. Minnesota is 30-51 ATS last 3 years after 3 or more consecutive losses. Sacramento is 17-8 ATS last 3 years after playing 3 or more consecutive home games. Minnesota is allowing 112.5 points per game overall this year and 117 points per game on the road this season. Sacramento is 4-0 SU and ATS at home vs Minnesota the past 3 years. We'll recommend a small play on Sacramento tonight!

Wunderdog

Illinois Chicago vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -24

The Panthers did not look good in their opener but they got the win and the first game jitters behind them. I'm sure Coach Jaime Dixon sent a loud message to his team after the lethargic win. Illinois Chicago was a force in the Horizon a few years ago, but things have turned sour. UIC dropped 22 games a year ago, have a new coach and three returning players, so expectations this year are minimal. I look for Pitt to dominate an under-sized undermanned UIC team in the paint where easy looks make for high shooting percentages and a lot of second chance points, which is the perfect ingredients for toppling a big number. The Flames just don't have any answers inside or out and, off a poor performance, I look for Pitt to put the pedal to the metal tonight. I'll like Pitt in this one

Bettor Wins

Miami Ohio vs. Bowling Green
Play: Bowling Green + 2.5

The Bowling Green running game isn’t pretty, checking in last in the MAC and the country as it produces only 62.3 yards per game. Willie Geter is the main rusher with 566 yards and four touchdowns. The total offense isn’t much better as it sits 110th in the nation putting up 295.9 yards and the offense scores 23.7 points an outing. Quarterback Matt Schilz has combined with wideout Kamar Jorden for 76 grabs and his 8.44 catches per game put him third in the country.

The Redhawks can’t run the ball either. They average 62.8 yards per game, just one spot ahead of the basement-dwelling Falcons. Luckily, Miami can throw it around with 259.1 passing yards per game as Zac Dysert completes 63.6 percent of his passes for 6.8 yards an attempt. Wideout Nick Hawell has picked up lately with 33 catches and 475 receiving yards over the last four games. Miami’s total offense sits 98th in the country at 321.9 yards an outing, producing 19.4 points per game. We still like Bowling Green for a Small play, + 2.5

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5

Following a double-digit home loss to Boston, I expect the Thunder to bounce back strong against a team they have owned.

The Thunder have won the last 3 meetings in this series by 15, 11 and 18 points respectively. They should be able to come up with another double-digit win in this bounce back spot, especially since Philly is expected to be without Andre Iguodala. The Thunder will be without Jeff Green, but Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook should have no problem picking up the slack.

OKC has proven to be an extraordinary bounce back team. In fact, it is 27-10 ATS in its last 37 games after 1 or more consecutive losses. It is also 27-14 ATS in its last 41 games following a home loss. Lay the points with OKC.

Bryan Leonard

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Philadelphia 76ers +9

While the Sixers have won just twice on the season they are holding their own in the betting circles. Philadelphia has cashed 4 of 7 games and they have played better on the road than at home. The last two times out they lost in overtime by a point to Washington and then beat the Knicks 106-96. This is a young team that's under the radar in our opinion and are well rested entering tonight.

Oklahoma City has been a huge disappointment thus far with a 3-3 record. They have cashed just twice on the young season. So much was expected from this young team but as in most cases the young corp hasn't taken the next step in their development. With huge games against Portland, San Antonio, Utah, Houston and Boston on deck the Thunder will likely be looking past the Sixers.