Black Widow
1* on Sacramento Kings -9.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight when they travel to Sacramento to face the Kings. Minnesota played the defending champion L.A. Lakers to a 94-99 game last night, and really fought hard to try and beat the world champs. That effort sets them up for a letdown tonight when they take on the Sacramento Kings. The Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest, 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5, and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. This Minnesota team is just 1-7 this season and in our opinion they are the worst team in the league. That's why Sacramento should have no problem winning by double-digits tonight. The Timberwolves are 0-5 on the road this season, getting outscored by a ridiculous 25.0 points/game. The Kings are playing on 3 days' rest so they'll be very hungry to hit the floor tonight after having to practice for 3 straight days, giving them plenty of time to prepare for Minnesota. Take the Kings and lay the points.
Jack Jones
Orlando Magic -11
Wednesday represents a very tough spot for the Utah Jazz. They put forth a tremendous ammount of effort in their 116-114 overtime win over the Miami Heat last night. Utah had to come back from 22 points down in the second quarter, and they managed to pull it off. Paul Millsap had 46 points in the win, including 11 in the final 28 seconds of regulation. Off such an emotional win that took so much out of the Jazz, it's only human nature for them to come out flat tonight against Orlando in this second of a back-to-back situation. The Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 0 days rest.
Orlando has been nothing short of dominant at home this season. The Magic are 5-1 overall, including 4-0 at home. Orlando is scoring 109.5 PPG at home this year while allowing 87.0 PPG, so they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 22.5 PPG. The Magic are an impressive 14-1 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, Utah is a money-draining 4-16 ATS in road games after a game - attempting 20+ less free throws than opponent since 1996. The Magic are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater. Roll with Orlando Wednesday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Philadelphia 76ers +9
The Thunder are getting way too much respect with this line, considering they have lost by double digits in 3 of their last 4 games. Plus, the 76ers haven't lost by more than 7 points in any of their last 4 games. I know Iguodala is expected to miss tonight, but the Thunder will be without key contributor Jeff Green. The 76ers are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Defense was OKC's calling card last season, but so far it hasn't shown that it can stop anyone. Take the points with Philly.
Larry Ness
Utah @ Orlando
Pick: Orlando -11
The Jazz lost Boozer, Korver and Matthews to free agency and knew that Okur wouldn't get back on the court until late-December at the earliest. However, Utah would go unbeaten in the preseason. The Jazz then opened the season 0-2 before winning FOUR of their last five. Utah rallied from 18 points down to beat the Clippers on Saturday (not exactly earth-shattering news) but then came back from a 22-point second-quarter deficit last night to beat the Heat by two points, in OT (that's impressive!). Paul Millsap (24.0-10.9) scored a career-high 46 points Tuesday night while Williams (20.3-9.7 APG) added 21 points with 14 assists. However, it's now on to Orlando, which is 4-1, losing only at Miami. Nelson (12.5-5.5 APG) may miss with an ankle injury but Duhon is a solid replacement at PG plus Redick has shown "he belongs' since late last year. Howard (23.2-11.3) is off to a great start and while Carter (15.0) and Lewis 911.6) are scoring less, Orlando's depth up front is impressive with Bass (8.5-6.0), Anderson (8.2-3.6) and Gortat (6.3-5.7) all contributing. Also providing depth on the perimeter are Richardson (5.7-4.1) and Pietrus (5.0). This is one deep team! Millsap played 43-plus minutes last night and Williams 42-plus, so this is a tough back-to-back spot. Note that the Jazz are averaging 117.5 PPG in their four wins but just 86.7 in their three losses. Considering the Magic are allowing an NBA-low 88.7 points PPG, I expect the latter. Lay it with Orlando.
Sam Martin
New Jersey Nets at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers
Two teams heading in opposite directions here as New Jersey has lost five straight games, while Cleveland has won and covered three in a row. And the Cavs were able to beat these Nets in New Jersey last night, which can only give Cleveland the confidence heading into this home-and-home matchup in Cleveland. New Jersey has now gone five straight games shooting under 43% from the field, and the Nets poor start is even worse considering that five of their seven games were at home this season. Nets only two road games both ended in double-digit losses, and no reason to think they'll come back with a strong effort here tonight!
Bobby Maxwell
Miami, Ohio (-2') at BOWLING GREEN
For my comp selection, Miami of Ohio was not supposed to be in this position. This team was expected to finish at or near the bottom of the MAC’s East Division. But with three games left, the RedHawks are battling to move into a three-way first-place tie. I expect they will be motivated for this one and they have done well on the road this season, so go ahead and lay the points with them on the road tonight.
Miami is one win from being bowl eligible and with a win will be in a first-place tie with two games left. They have won consecutive league games on the road, beating up Buffalo on October 30 as two-point favorites and going to Central Michigan on October 16 and cashing as huge 13-point ‘dogs.
QB Zac Dysert has completed 64 percent of his passes this season and thrown for 12 TDs, but he shows his youth often with his 12 INTs and some bad decisions. As the season shifts to key November games, you’ll see him mature and avoid the mistakes that kill his team’s chances to win the game. His favorite target is Nick Harwell who had eight catches for 97 yards and 2 TDs against Buffalo, a week after 219 yards on 11 pass catches against Ohio.
Miami has won nine of 11 against Bowling Green and cashed in eight of the last 10 games. Last time they were at Bowling Green, the RedHawks scored a 27-20 win as 9 ½-point road ‘dogs. They’ve won and covered in five straight against the Falcons.
Bowling Green stopped a five-game losing streak on Oct. 30 with a 17-14 road win at Central Michigan, delivering as a 13-point underdog. The Falcons have struggled to score points, getting more than 27 just once this season. They don’t need to get in any shootouts with the RedHawks.
The RedHawks are 4-1 ATS against teams with losing records and 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 road games against teams with a losing home record. Bowling Green is on ATS skids of 3-8 after a bye week, 7-19 at home and 1-3-1 against teams with a winning record.
Miami looks more motivated than it has all season and they are sniffing a bowl berth just a win away. Play Miami to get a road win today.
5♦ MIAMI (OH)
Scott Delaney
Milwaukee at ATLANTA (-6')
The Bucks made it look easy last night at home against the Knicks, winning 107-80 after shooting a season-high 51.3 percent and topping the 100-point plateau for just the second time this season.
It won't be as simple tonight.
Problem for them is they still rank near the bottom of the league with an average of 91.8 points per game, they're on the road tonight and they're playing a team they can't seem to beat.
Thus, I'm laying the points with the Hawks in Atlanta.
The Hawks are going to be awfully pissed off after two straight losses followed six consecutive wins to open the season.
They should come into this one with a bit of confidence, since they held the Bucks to 85.8 points per game on 39.8-percent shooting while going 3-1 in Atlanta in the playoffs last season. The Hawks also come in riding a -game regular-season home win streak over the Bucks, who are 1-3 with a suitcase in hand this year.
Checking the betting numbers, the favorite has covered six of the last eight meetings, the home team has covered five of seven and the Bucks are mired in a 3-7 spread slide in Atlanta.
Take the Hawks here.
3♦ ATLANTA
Joel Tyson
Milwaukee (+6') at ATLANTA
As for your comp play for Wednesday, going to take the points with the Bucks as they visit Atlanta for the first time since being eliminated in the playoffs last May.
Milwaukee held a 3-2 series lead in their best-of-seven set, but were blown out in the last 2 games contested in Atlanta. The Bucks were also without Bogut in that series.
I like the Bucks to bow up tonight as they seek a little redemption.
Milwaukee is fresh off a home blowout of New York last night, and they do catch Atlanta slumping a bit right now, as the Hawks have lost their last pair of games after their 6-0 straight up start.
Expect a close one tonight in the NBA.
Take the Bucks plus the points.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Stephen Nover
Houston (-3) at WASHINGTON
I like Houston to cover against Washington as my Wednesday free selection.
The Rockets opened with five straight losses before posting a 26-point home win against Minnesota in their last game this past Sunday. Because of their slow start, the Rockets now must play with a strong sense of urgency. They won't be taking Washington lightly as they open a three-game road trip.
Washington looks to be terrible again this season. The Wizards are 1-4. Their only win was against Philadelphia, an equally inept team, in overtime at home by one point. Since that win, the Wizards have lost by 21 at New York and by five at home to a down Cavaliers team.
The Rockets are the best team the Wizards have seen during this span. The Rockets have covered the past five times they've played on the road versus the Wizards.
Injuries have been a problem for Houston. Starting point guard Aaron Brooks is out. But shooting guard Kevin Martin (ankle) is probable. Backup point guard Kyle Lowry (back spasms) should play, too.
The time off also should help Yao Ming. He's been averaging only 21 minutes a game as he comes back from foot surgery that sidelined him all of last season. The Rockets, though, are ready to start increasing his minutes.
2♦ HOUSTON
Karl Garrett
Houston (-3') at WASHINGTON
Both teams have underachieved with just one win this season, but the G-Man thinks the Rockets have more of an upside than the Wizards, and the Houston win did come their last time on the hardwood in a 26-point rout of Minnesota.
The Rockets have been able to take the last pair of series meetings, and they are on a series 10-4 spread run against Washington.
Chances look good for Rick Adelman's team to up those numbers, as the Wizards are on a 4-11 spread slide their last 15 at home. That includes an 0-2 start to this season on their home floor.
Time for Houston to make up ground after their 0-5 start.
G-Man on the Rockets minus the points.
5♦ HOUSTON
Chuck O'Brien
Houston (-3') at WASHINGTON
Wednesday’s complimentary selection also comes in the NBA -- where I scored with yesterday's free winner on the Cavaliers -- as I’ll give the points with the Rockets at Washington.
Houston is much better than its 1-5 record, and the results bear this out. Four of the Rockets’ five losses – to the Lakers, Warriors, Hornets and Spurs, four teams that are a combined 25-3! – have been by a total of 19 points. That includes three road losses by two, four and three points.
Meanwhile, the Wizards are among the four worst teams in the NBA. And if not for a 116-115 overtime home win over the Sixers, Washington would enter tonight winless through its first five games. As it is, the Wizards have surrendered 112, 99, 115, 112 and 107 points this season, and opponents are hitting 50 percent of their shots against Washington. Now the Wizards face a Rocket squad that has had little trouble filling the bucket. Houston is putting up 112 points per game overall and 119.7 ppg in its three road games.
The Rockets swept the two-game season series from the Wizards last year, including a 96-88 road win as a four-point favorite. What’s more, Houston is 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings, going 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five visits to D.C.
If that’s not enough to fade the Wizards tonight, this is: They’ve cashed just once in four games this season, just four times in their last 15 home games and just three times in their last 11 as an underdog.
4♦ HOUSTON
Chris Jordan
New Jersey at CLEVELAND (-4')
After winning the first of back-to-back nights in this home-and-home series, I'll back the Cavaliers on the second night. They're playing solid team basketball now that the Selfish One is in South Beach.
Does anyone else realize the Cavaliers have had five different scoring leaders through the season’s first seven games? Last night, in a 93-91 victory at New Jersey, J.J. Hickson poured in 18 points to lead five players in double figures.
And get this, three of those players in double figs came off the bench, totaling 52 points. At this point - just two weeks into the campaign - Cleveland is near the top of the rankings with a per game average of 42.6 bench points.
Cleveland rolls in on a three-game win streak, while the Nets have lost five straight.
Checking the betting numbers, the Nets are in on losing skids of 2-6 on the road, 4-14 in Eastern Conference play, 1-9 when visiting teams with a losing home record. and 3-7 overall. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 8-2 ATS when laying chalk at home in this range.
Lay it with the Cavs.
3♦ CLEVELAND
Michael Cannon
Dallas (+1') at MEMPHIS
Take the Mavs for the road win over the Grizzlies.
Dallas has revenge motive for its one-point loss at American Airlines Center on Oct. 29, which was the Grizzlies’ first win at Dallas since November 2005.
The Mavs rotation has produced well in the early going and its due in large part to Shawn Marion accepting a sixth-man role.
Dallas is also shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor in the early going and I expect that success to continue tonight.
Take the Mavs as the tiny road dog over Memphis.
3♦ DALLAS
Derek Mancini
Philadelphia at OKLAHOMA CITY (-9)
Lay it with the Thunder, as they've been a bit shaky over their L4 games, but finally get a match up where they can really get back on track. You see, while the 76ers were busy improving their record and stats against bottom feeders like the Pacers, Knicks, and Cavaliers ; The Thunder have been busy battling the Jazz, Trail Blazers, and Celtics in 3 of their L4 games. So don't be so quick to fade OKC just because they've lost a couple games. They're still far more talented than this 76ers team, and it'll show tonight.
Sefolosha is the one weak spot in the Thunder's starting lineup (Ibaka's did a decent job in Green's absence), but otherwise the Thunder have edges at almost every single spot. With Iguodala out, the 76ers lack a true go-to player, and please don't tell me Elton Brand is that guy, because that may have been true 3 years ago. I know the 76ers offense has looked good, but you have to take into account their opposition... They will struggle without Iguodala in this match up, as they take a major step up in competition tonight.
The public has taken a wait and see approach to the now 3-3 Thunder, as they expected a much hotter start from Durant's squad. So what do oddsmakers do? They try and entice you with a what looks like a ridiculous spread against a "hot" 76ers team. When in reality, Philly is only "hot" because they've been playing some of the worst teams in the NBA, and the Thunder only "appear" to be struggling because they've played some of the tougher squads out there. Underestimate the Thunder at your own loss here, as they expose the 76ers tonight at home. Oklahoma City over Philadelphia Wednesday.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston –3½ over WASHINGTON
Strength of schedule is important whether you’re betting the NBA, the NFL, College Football or the NHL. It’s mightily important because it can make great teams appear bad and awful teams appear good and the examples of this phenomenon are present throughout the sports world. Yeah the Rockets are 1-5 but have played hands down the hardest schedule in the league. Rocket opponents have an unreal .658 win percentage, far and away the highest in the NBA. Despite this, Houston basically has an equal point differential and what that means is that they are way better than the 1-5 record indicates. Luckily for us bettors this means that spreads which would normally be in the 6-7 point range come down to 3½, making this an automatic bet. The Wizards are 1-4 but unlike the Rockets have played a relatively easy schedule. They have been blown out by the Knicks and Magic and if not for a miracle win over the Sixers would be 0-5 right now. The fact that they’re playing at home shouldn’t be seen as an “advantage” because quite frankly this Wizards team is going to be awful either way and the venue they play at won’t make one iota of a difference. It’s a team that ranks dead last in the East in points allowed, dead last in field goal percentage against, dead last in offensive and defensive rebounding and first in turnovers. This is a putrid, putrid squad that will approach the 60-loss mark and aren’t in the same class as Houston. The Rockets should pound this feeble opponent like they did the Timberwolves on Sunday. The players and coaches know wins in the West are hard to come by and will play with maximum effort tonight. Play: Houston –3½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Boston +1.12 over PITTSBURGH
The Pens are perceived as being one of the powers of this league but they’ve been anything but. This is a .500 hockey team right now that has just two wins in its last seven. One of those wins came in Phoenix in OT in the final game of the Penguins four-game trip. The last two games of said trip were on the West Coast and now the Penguins will return home, where they’re just 2-4 on the season. That’s not the only issue. Sidney Crosby openly stated that Marc Andre Fleury needs to play and in response to those statements the coach is going with Brent Johnson tonight. It might not mean anything but it also might. Aside from Crosby and Malkin, no other forward is producing. In fact, five of the seven top point producers are d-men. Chris Kunitz is eighth best on the team with a mere seven points. The Penguins will be the second best team on the ice tonight and they also have a significant disadvantage in net. The Bruins are not good, they’re great and they're one of the top three teams in the league, bar none. They have everything; toughness, heart, scoring , defense, goaltending and chemistry. Throw in the fact that they’re in a favorable spot (Pens returning home) and that we’re taking back a tag and it’s pretty much a no-brainer. Play: Boston +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
COLUMBUS +1.09 over St. Louis
The Blue Notes shot to the top of the NHL power rankings this week, Jaroslav Halak was named the week’s #1 star and everything is just perfect in St. Louis. Remember, buy low and sell high and that’s precisely the situation here with the Blue Notes. The Blues are definitely a strong team and they’re loving life right now but they’re also a little too “high” and it’s time to come back down to earth. St. Louis is still without three of its top defenseman and eventually that’s going to sting. They’ve also won seven straight, two straight on the road and they have wins over San Jose, in Boston and in New York at MSG over its last three. That’s a strong résumé coming into this game, yet the odds makers have them laying a half puck and taking back 43 cents. That’s rather enticing when you consider they’ve lost just one game all season long and that there’s about as much interest in the Jackets as there is in Tom Arnold’s career. The Jackets are no pushovers and this is a game they’ll take very seriously. They, too, are getting outstanding goaltending and they’ve won five of its last seven. So, with its stock being higher than its ever been and the Blue Notes getting a lot of press this week, it’s the perfect time to bet against them. The line says so. Play: Columbus +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
FLORIDA -½ +1.12 over Toronto
Boy, the Leafs really rallied around their beleaguered coach last night, didn’t they? It’s no mystery why the Leafs have lost nine of 10 games. The bigger mystery is how they opened the year 4-0. The Maple Leafs are the worst team in hockey and it’s not close. At least the Oilers have potential and an exciting young team. Ditto for the Islanders and all they need is some steady goaltending and they’ll win a bunch of games. The Leafs have steady goaltending but that’s all they have. Brian Burke was brought in to turn things around and all he did was set them back another 10 years. He traded away draft picks and he traded away some good players for worse players (see Ponikarovsky, Andropov, Hagman and a few others). Give Burke credit though, he brought in Colton Orr, Tim Brent, Mike Brown, Francois Beauchemin, Brett Lebda, Mike Zigomanis and Fredrik Sjostrom, all guys that couldn’t crack the line-up on 100% of the other teams in this league. He’s trying to turn Colby Armstrong and Kris Versteeg into front-line NHL players when in fact, they’re both strong role players and nothing more. Burke has not made one good move but about 20 laughable one’s and things are not going to get better. This is a talentless team that can’t score goals and when it’s all said and done they’ll have less wins than any team in the NHL. Ron Wilson is an idiot but he baptized Burke’s kid so he’ll be around for a while. Down 3-0 with about 12 minutes to go in the second period last night and needing goals or at least a goal to gain some momentum, Wilson has the Colton Orr line playing regularly. With two goals, Orr is the third leading goal scorer on the Leafs. He may not score another goal the rest of his career but he will punch someone in the mouth about 1000 more times. What a pitiful organization that keeps making the same mistakes year after year after year. There is no Patrick Kane, Crosby, Stamkos, Doughty, Evander Kane, Ovechkin, Loui Erikkson, Sedin, Getzlaf, Sharp, Giroux, Staal, Perry, Zetterberg, Skinner, Hall or anyone else that other teams have drafted over the years. That list could go on forever. The last impact player draft pick the Maple Leafs had was Wendell Clark about 20 years ago. The Maple Leafs are a fu**ing joke. Florida is a good squad that got off to a bit of a shaky start but they’re coming on. They absolutely dominated both Carolina and Atlanta in two of its last three games and having already lost to the Leafs once this year, they’re not about to lose to them again. Play: Florida -½ +1.12 (Risking 2 units).