VEGAS EXPERTS
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Toledo at Central Michigan
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It is nothing short of amazing what Central Michigan has done in three previous home games this season, outscoring foes on average of 50.7 to 9.7! While most will gravitate towards the latter number, we're more interested in the former as we note Toledo is giving up a terrible 37.4 PPG in all contests this season. CMU is off only its second loss of the season and will be eager to reestablish its dominance over conference foes.
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Play on: Over
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
352 - 240 run 58 %
Free winner Toronto -5
8)
John Ryan
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Detroit Red Wings vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Play: Detroit Red Wings
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Detroit as they face Columbus set to start at 7:00 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 264-276 for just 49% winners, but has made 89.6 units in profits since 2004. Play On - Road teams against the money line (DETROIT) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% on the season. Columbus is just 10-23 against the money line (-16.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons; 1-8 against the money line (-8.3 Units) when playing against a marginal losing team sporting a win percentage between 40% to 49% in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Detroit HC Babcock is a stout 33-9 against the money line (+17.2 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest as the coach of the Red Wings. Take Detroit.
Freddy Wills
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Toledo vs. Central Michigan
Play: Central Michigan -17.5
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It's not a premium play for me as I went back and forth a bit with the total for the under, but the inability for Toledo to keep opponents under 30 and their ability to score points as well as Central Michigan's motivation after their 31-10 loss kept me from making this a premium pick. Now with that said I think the only play here is on the Chippewas and I'll tell you why. Dan LeFevour will be playing on Sunday's next year he is the MAC's version of Tim Tebow. Toledo won't be able to stop him their offense is ranked 101st in the nation and that's against an average ranked 84th offense so you know they are as bad as they look. They can't get off the field on 3rd downs and they are allowing opponents to score 89% of the time in the red zone and have just 11 sacks on the season. That all does not sound good to me and Toledo on offense has a lot of talent, but they won't be able to keep up with Central Michigan here who will be able to do whatever they want as Toledo's defensive front is among the smallest in the MAC. If Miami (OH) Zac Dysert can throw for 344 yards and 60 yards on the ground what do you think the conference's best QB LeFevour will do? This could get very ugly early and I predict it will. Look for a 3 TD game as Toledo can score some points, but the question marks at QB allow me to take Central Michigan for a small bet here on Wednesday. In their last game they had 3 QBs in the game and I think the same might happen tonight Opelt's shoulder is still not 100% although he'll give it a go. After that the inexperience could cause for alot to go wrong as Central Michigan at 7-2 has their eyes on the MAC title and more! They are not happy about losing to Boston College and will show it here tonight. I don't normally play big favorites like this, and I looked for a reason to play Toledo. Unfortunately I could not find a single reason. Only common opponent was Western Michigan where Toledo lost 26-58 at home while Central Mich won on the road 34-23. Central Michigans ability to score and keep opponents off the scoreboard and on the other hand Toledo can't keep opponents off the scoreboard allowing just 1 opponent to score under 30 points. Take Central Michigan -17
LT Profits
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Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 at Los Angeles Clippers
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The Oklahoma City Thunder had a tough three-point loss last night, but the fact that they are playing the back end of a back-to-back seem to be overrated here as the Los Angeles Clippers are almost always fade material whenever they are favored.
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The Clippers are now 7-17 against the spread the last 24 times that they have been favored, and they are already 0-2 ATS in this role this year. They have been terrible defensively allowing 101.8 points per game, and they have actually been slightly worse here at home, where they are allowing 102.8 points per contest.
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On top of all this, the visiting team is 4-1 both straight up and ATS the last five times these clubs have met, including a 126-85 blowout win by the Thunder here at Staples in the final game of the regular season last year.
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While the Clippers have shown very little improvement, the Thunder have made much bigger strides, especially on the defensive end. Oklahoma City was one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA last season, but they are allowing just 90.9 points per game this season while liming opponents to 43.9 percent shooting. Given that the Clippers are only averaging 94.1 points per contest, we see no reason why the Thunder cannot continue to showcase that defense tonight.
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Finally, playing without rest is not really much of a concern for a young Oklahoma City team that was 11-7, 61.1 percent ATS in the second of back-to-backs last season, so take the Thunder to post a road win.
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Pick: Thunder +2.5
SPORTS WAGERS
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Chicago +1.80 over TORONTO
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The Raps are loaded with shooters but they’re not without some serious flaws and it’s becoming a big issue with this team. The Raps defense is a complete and utter grease-fire and until they do something about it, they’re in danger of losing every time out. Without Parker and Duncan the Spurs hung a 131 on them. In its previous game in Dallas, the Mav’s scored 129. Orlando put up 125 on them and the Grizzlies scored 115. That’s just not going to get it done in this league and now the Raps will return home after a three-game trip to face the defensive minded Bulls. Chicago has won three of four with only loss over that stretch coming last night by a single point to the Nuggets. Incidentally, they held the Nuggets to 90 points and have now held its last four opponents to 90 or less. If the Raps are cold they virtually have no shot because of a defense that allows the opposition a ton of easy looks and easy buckets. After a short but tough three game trip to Dallas, New Orleans and San An, the Raps could be flat tonight and even if they play well and shoot well, they’re still a team that is too highly flawed to be trusted in this spot against one of the better defensive teams in the league. Play: Chicago +1.80 (Risking 2 units).
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Oklahoma City/L.A. CLIPPERS under 185½
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The fact of the matter is that there are just not that many scorers on the floor for this one other than the Thunder’s Kevin Durant. However, the Thunder will play its third game in four nights and the tail end of back-to-backs after a game in Sacramento last night. The Thunder lost 101-98 but the two teams combined for 71 free throws taken and that’s a ton of free throws. Had that not occurred this game would have gone way, way under the total. Anyway, the Thunder crawl up the court and are never in a hurry to score and the Clip Joint is without its starting guard, Eric Gordon, who is good for at least 15 a game. When playing Minnesota the Clippers scored just 93, they scored 84 against Dallas and they scored just 84 against New Orleans on Monday, its first game without Gordon. Again, the pace should be slow and both these teams just don’t have the scorers. Play: Ok City/LAC under 185½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Karl Garrett
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Charlotte +4 at DETROIT
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Great opportunity for the Bobcats to procure a road win this evening in the Motor City.
For one thing, you know former Pistons coach Larry Brown will bring a little added zest to the coaching box tonight as he takes on one of his former teams that he lead all the way to his only NBA title.
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For another thing, Detroit's Tayshaun Prince will not be a factor tonight, as he is sidelined with an abdominal injury. Also, Rip Hamilton is nursing a nagging ankle injury, and is most likely sidelined for this game as well!
Charlotte has split their last 2 visits to Detroit, and the Bobcats are a positive 5-2 against the spread in their 7 games to date, covering 2 of 3 on the road.
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Detroit has covered 2 of their first 3 at home this season, but being a little shorthanded tonight will prevent them from covering this one.
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Take the Bobcats plus the points!
3♦ CHARLOTTE
Stephen Nover
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Charlotte +4' at DETROIT
The Bobcats are a well-coached, pesky tough defensive club that rank first in rebound percentage.
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The Pistons, on the other hand, aren't as good as perceived. They have injuries, are adjusting to a new coach again, have the lowest assist per game average in the NBA and are among the bottom third teams in rebounding.
Yes, Charlotte played last night and didn't look good in losing to Orlando. It's no shame to lose to the Magic, especially when Vince Carter is back in the Orlando lineup. Keep this in mind, too, the Bobcats have covered the past five times they've played in the second of back-to-back games.
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Detroit is without sharpshooter Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, one of its better defenders. The Pistons are 3-4. They rely almost totally on streaky Ben Gordon for their perimeter points and 35-year-old Ben Wallace to get their rebounds.
Charlotte can counter Gordon with Raja Bell, one of the better defensive guards in the NBA. The Bobcats rank No. 3 in defense, holding foes to 88.4 points per game. This is one of the lowest totals of the season, so getting this many points is big in what figures to be a defensive battle.
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The oddsmaker overrates Detroit. The Pistons have failed to cover in 11 of their last 15 games. They are 6-16 against the spread in their last 22 home games versus teams with losing road records.
Bobcats point guard Raymond Felton is averaging 19.3 points and 5.6 assists in his last three games against Detroit. The Pistons are averaging only 14.4 assists per game, last in the NBA.
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Larry Brown doesn't like to lose to his former team or his former assistant coach, John Kuester, who is now heading up the Pistons.
3♦ BOBCATS
Jeff Benton
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New Orleans +7 at PHOENIX
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For Tuesday’s free play in the NBA, I’ll back the Hornets over the Suns.
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I’m a big proponent of going against teams in their first game back home following a long road trip, and tonight the Suns are in a really bad spot. They ended their five-game, seven-day East Coast road trip with a hard-fought 119-115 come-from-behind win at Philadelphia on Monday, then flew all the way back home and had only yesterday off before returning to the court tonight. When they do take the court, their body clocks (still on East Coast time) are going to think it’s 10:30 p.m.
Meanwhile, the Hornets played their last two games in the same building in Los Angeles (losing 104-88 to the Lakers on Sunday before crushing the Clippers 112-84 on Monday). And while the Suns were making the cross-country five-plus-hour flight from Philly to Phoenix, the Hornets made the one-hour hop from L.A. to the desert. That’s a big-time energy advantage for New Orleans, which also has the benefit of youth on its side.
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Chris Paul and the Hornets have dominated Steve Nash and the Suns, going 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings (including three straight wins in Phoenix) and 8-1 ATS in the last nine (4-0 ATS in Phoenix). And in those nine meetings, the underdog is 7-2 ATS. Lastly, the Suns ended their successful road trip with three consecutive spread-covers. Well, they had just one 4-0 ATS streak last season and just two spread-covering streaks of four or more games in 2007-08.
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4♦ NEW ORLEANS
JEFF ALEXANDER
1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -5
The Knicks are in a world of hurt, off to a 1-7 start this season, and it is going to be very tough for them to bounce back from such an emotionally and physically draining loss to the Jazz on just a day's rest against a more talented Hawks team that hasn't played since the 7th. The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and I look for this trend to continue tonight. Take Atlanta for 1 Unit.
Roz Juarbe
Bulls at Raptors
Toronto is nothing special to be a favorite over the Bulls. Toronto is on a 2-4 SU/ATS run, even losing at Memphis as a favorite, giving up 115 points. Chicago had to play last night and won’t be in a good mood after a last second shot was overturned, giving Denver a one-point win. That ended a 3-game win streak by the young Bulls. A good bounce back spot for the talented young visitors against the struggling Raptors. Play the Chicago Bulls.
Rocketman
Toledo @ Central Michigan
Play: Central Michigan -17
Toledo is allowing 37.4 points per game overall this year and 36.4 points per game on the road this season. Central Michigan is scoring a whopping 50.7 points per game at home this year. Central Michigan is allowing only 16.9 points per game overall and 9.7 points per game at home this year. Rockets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Rockets are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 road games. Rockets are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog. Rockets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Chippewas are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Chippewas are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week. Chippewas are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. Chippewas are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite. Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. Chippewas are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Chippewas are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss. Chippewas are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Chippewas are 16-5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Chippewas are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 conference games. Chippewas are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite. Chippewas are 27-11-3 ATS in their last 41 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Chippewas are 36-15-3 ATS in their last 54 games overall. Chippewas are 20-9-2 ATS in their last 31 games on turf. We'll recommend a small play on Central Michigan tonight!
LARRY NESS
New Orleans Hornets @ Phoenix Suns
PICK: Phoenix Suns -6
The Suns went 46-36 last year but in the talent-rich West, missed the postseason for the first time since the arrival of Steve Nash. Speaking of Nash, who will turn 36 during this current season, he's leading the league with 12.6 APG and is coming off the NBA's first 20-point, 20-assist game since he did it back on January 2, 2006. Nash scored 21 points and added 20 assists in the Suns' 119-15 win at Philly on Monday, as the Suns completed a five-game road trip which saw them go 4-1 (beat the Heat and the Celtics, Boston's only loss this year). Richardson (20.3-5.2) leads the team in scoring, followed by Stoudemire (19.90-8.5) and Nash (18.2). The Suns are averaging a league-high 110.9 PPG while topping the NBA in FG percentage (50.2) and three-point marksmanship (47.1), as well. Frye (13.6-5.1), Hill (13.2-8.6) and Barbosa (12.8) round out a group of six players averaging double digits. The Hornets finally won a road game this year, beating the Clippers 112-84 on Monday night. It was a much-needed win, as New Orleans had lost 104-88 one night earlier to the Lakers, to open the new season 0-4 SU away from home. Chris Paul (26.2-9.8 APG) twisted his left ankle shortly before halftime on Monday night but returned in the third quarter to finish with 24 points and 10 assists, although he did sit out the fourth period. He should go here but his ankle may not be 100 percent. That's not good news vs Nash and the Suns, as the Hornets are on an 'ugly' run of 7-21 ATS as a road dogs. If the Suns weren't just back off an East Coast trip (plus play in LA tomorrow night against the Lakers), I'd be "all over" Phoenix here. As is, I'm still willing to lay the points for a small play, as the Hornets just don't seem to "have it together," especially away from home.
MTi Sports
Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Over
Toronto is off a 131-124 loss in San Antonio in which they shot 59.2% from the field and an even better 64.7% from the arc. Toronto has responded to these types of losses with high-scoring games. The Raptors are 8-0 OU (+16.8 ppg) after a loss in which their DPS was positive and 5-0 OU (+18.5 ppg) at home with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field. Consider these two OVER.
King Creole
CHL 4.5 vs DET
Thus far in the 2009 NBA Season:
12-3 ATS for all UNDERDOGS of > 2 points playing off a division game (BOBCATS). And when taking on an opponent off a SU and ATS win (like Detroit), the results have been a PERFECT 5-0 ATS.
Charlotte lost LAST NIGHT at home to division rival Orlando... while Detroit won at home on Sunday against the Sixers.10-0-1 ATS since 2001: All NBA 'short' road underdogs of 6 < points playing with NO REST.... off a Double-Digit home loss (BOBCATS)... versus any opponent off a SU and ATS home win (Pistons).
The Bobcat are one of the NBA's best teams when they played the previous night. Charlotte is 20-7-2 ATS in the last 3 years as underdogs when playing with NO REST (also 6-0 ATS last 2 years as dogs of 11 < points). On the flip side, the PISTONS are 0-4 ATS in the last 2 years as home favorites of < 13 points against an UNRESTED non-division opponent.