Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday November, 14

David Chan
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Indiana vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee
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Indiana is 3-5 ATS, including just 2-3 ATS on the road.
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The Pacers took all three games vs. the Bucks last year, averaging a massive 116 points in the process.
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Of course, that was with leading scorer Danny Granger in the lineup.
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Granger will be out now for at least a couple of months with injury. That's too bad for Pacers' backers, as the Indiana offense has ground to halt without the dynamic shooter on the floor, averaging just 88.1 PPG and having topped the 100-point plateau just once so far this season.
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Indiana lost 74-72 at home to Toronto last night.
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Already just 1-2 ATS this year as an underdog, note that Indiana is just 38-42 in the same position over the last two.
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The Bucks are 3-3 ATS, including 0-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd; I expect them to finally earn an elusive cover for bettors in front of the home town crowd tonight.
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Milwaukee is coming off a 105-96 win in Philadelphia on Monday.
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Brandon Jennings would lead the charge with 33 points.
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Already 2-0 ATS vs. poor offensive teams that score 91 points or less per contest this year, note that Milwaukee is 9-4 ATS in the same position over the last two.
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It's a classic battle of offense vs. defense tonight. I simply feel that the chips are stacked in the home sides favor, with factors working for it both on (the absence of Granger), and off (the triple revenge angle from last years sweep) the court, and which is also catching a weary Pacers team that lost a disheartening contest just 24 hours previous, whose collective psyche must finally be questioning itself after their lacklustre start.
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Consider a second look at Milwaukee in this one!

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago Bulls vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Chicago Bulls
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The Bulls fit another solid system of ours that plays on rested road favorites of 4 or less that scored 90 or more as a home favorite of 4 or less, vs an opponent that scored 110 or more as a home dog in their last game and had prior rest to that game. The Bulls will look to bounce back from a home loss to the Celtics knowing they are 20-5 off 3 or more home games, 13-4 vs the Pacific division and 11-3 on the road when the posted total is 185 to 189.5. Phoenix its 2-6 vs teams who allow 91 or less and 1-4 ats vs Non conference teams, they have also lost the last 3 in the series. Lay the small number with the Bulls.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UAB vs Creighton
Pick: Creighton
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Creighton was a dynamo on offense last season, but the Bluejays were not the most diligent defenders much of the time. If the early returns this season are a barometer, they've improved in that aspect of the game. UAB isn't much, and if the hosts play both ends of the court, this should be an easy win. I'll opt for Creighton minus the points.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Heat vs Clippers
Pick: Over
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LeBron James and Chris Paul square off in Los Angeles, two talented stars who can push the basketball up the court and score. The first-place Clippers are third in the NBA in points scored (102 ppg) and seventh in assists. The over is 6-2 in the Clippers last 8 games playing on 2 days rest and 9-4 over the total in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. LeBron and first-place Miami are tops in the NBA in scoring with 105.5 ppg, 4th in assists. Over is 10-4-1 in Heat last 15 games playing on one days rest and the team is on a 15-7-1 run over the total. And when they meet, the over is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings. Play the Heat/Clippers over the total.

JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Creighton -16.5
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The CenturyLink Center in Omaha will be Loud & Rocking tonight boys as we will gladly lay the 16.5 with the #15 ranked BlueJays... led by a flat out stud with " 6' 8" D MCDermott... Ames Iowa" who can hoop it up with the best of them ...1st team All American and he has a strong supporting cast of athletes.... 10 lettermen/4 starters from a 29-6 team... It is Nice to be a BLUEJAY TODAY!!! Creighton has won 39 straight regular-season November home games and the Fans love to watch these "Guys" pound.... CLOSE @ FIRST... UGLY SECOND HALF...

Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3 UNIT PLAY
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Ohio +6.5 over BALL STATE: Tyler Tettleton and the Bobcat offense had a rough go in their last game vs a very good Bowling Green Defense, but they will not be facing a good defense this week. Ohio is mainly a running team (16 more rushes per game than passes) and that will be a big problem for this Ball State defense as they come in allowing 213.6 ypg on the ground (110th) at 5.1 yards per pop. Now even though Ohio runs the ball so much more than they pass it, they still put up 231.8 ypg through the air, compared to 208.6 ypg on the ground. A reason for that is that because they run the ball so well it’s sets up the play action for some big plays down field. Now that is another problem for the ball State defense as they are 94th vs the pass, allowing 257.4 ypg. I look for Ohio to be able to easily move the ball on Ball State in this one. On the other side we have a Ball State offense that is very good, putting up 470.5 ypg and 33.7 ppg, but this is a tough Ohio defense that they will be facing. Ohio comes in allowing 377.5 ypg and just 22.8 ppg, giving them a big edge on that side of the ball. The Offense are about equal, but Ohio is more balanced on that side of the ball and they have a huge defensive edge. The last 2 have been decided by a FG and I see this one just as close, but I will call for the Bobcats to come out with the outright upset.

Wunderdog

Memphis at Oklahoma City
Pick: Oklahoma City -5.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder opened the season with a slight hangover. Starting 1-2 was a wake-up call for this club, and they have responded in resounding fashion by recording five straight wins. This is a team with a lot of offensive weapons, as they have two players in Westbrook, and Durant that can create and score on their own as well as anyone in the league. The difference maker here is that the Thunder is at home, as OKC is an incredibly tough place to play. The Thunder is also dominating against the West at 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11. Lay the points and play on the Thunder.

SPORTS WAGERS
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BALL STATE -6½ -105 over Ohio
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These ESPN, mid-week MAC games have become commonplace. The dog keeps covering in these games and that has the betting public a bit reluctant to spot the points. Not us. We’ve been on the right side of those covers and we’ll confidently switch gears here. Ohio’s only decent win this year came on opening day at Penn State. They have no other notable wins and have dropped two of its last three. The Bobcats are in the top 40 in the country in points scored, rushing yards and points allowed but those numbers are grossly skewed by a cupcake schedule. The offense is average at best and their special teams are awful.
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We've supported Pete Lembo's Ball State Cardinals all season and this looks like one of the best spots so far. BSU has won four straight including the past two on the road, the latter at #25 Toledo. Quarterback Keith Wenning and a deep group of tailbacks work behind the most experienced offensive line in the FBS. This is a team on the rise. Against a much tougher schedule than Ohio, which includes games against Clemson, Northern Illinois and Kent State, the Cardinals are likely to put away this visitor early and never look back.
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Washington +8½ -110 over DALLAS
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As a one-point pooch in Charlotte last night, the Wizards fell behind by six in the second quarter and never got closer the rest of the game, eventually losing by 16 points. Against the 30th ranked Bobcats defense, Washington scored 72 points. One would expect a much better effort than that from a winless team but it didn’t happen. Now they’ll play its third game in four days and with its stock so low and the entire betting world spotting the points, we’ll gladly step in and “buy low”.
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Dallas has dropped three straight to New York, Charlotte and Minnesota. Outside of their opening night win in L.A. against the Lakers (which looked great at the time but as it turns out, wasn’t so great), the Mavs do not have a notable win yet after beating Toronto, Charlotte and Portland. The Mavs’ rebounding has been atrocious and their defense hasn’t been much better. That’s going to allow the Wizards to come in here and likely win the battle of the boards quite handily, shoot better and stay well within this range.
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Detroit +7½ over PHILADELPHIA
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The 76ers are coming off a nine-point home loss to the Bucks. They’re 4-3 but just 1-2 at home with only win coming against Denver in the second game of the season. We mentioned earlier that Sixers coach Doug Collins wears out his welcome quicker than most and we’re starting to see signs of that again. Philly is playing with less heart each game, turning the ball over far too often and putting up low percentage shots. This is not a team to be spotting a lot of points with.
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Without trying to sound redundant, we can assure you that the Pistons are not that bad. The fact that they’re winless (0-8) only increases their value, as they keep getting offered too many points and this one is no different. Detroit has covered three of its last four games. They’ve played the toughest schedule in the NBA and they’ve had just two home games in eight starts. After a six game trip, they returned home, which is always a difficult spot and had the Thunder on the ropes before falling by two points. The only concern is morale being down but reports insist spirits are high. Upset alert is on.

Steve Janus
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Boston Celtics -5½
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I was right on the money when the Jazz broke through with their first road win of the season Monday, but now it's time to fade Utah and jump on the Celtics at home. Boston has quietly won 4 of 5 after a 0-2 start and I expect this team to keep it rolling tonight. The Celtics have won four straight at home over the Jazz and each of those wins came by at least 9-points! As you can see the value is clearly with the home team in this matchup. Prior to their road win over the Raptors, Utah had lost three straight away from home by no less than 9-points.
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Boston is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Jimmy Boyd
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Washington Wizards +8
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The Wizards are being undervalued because they are 0-6 on the season. Consider that they are on a 69-39 ATS run when checking into a game off 5 or more consecutive losses. They are have only lost these games by an average of 0.9 points.
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The Wizards played last night, but I don't expect fatigue to be a factor as they had two days off prior. Consider that road teams coming off an embarrassing road loss in which they were held to less than 80 points, provided they are a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days,are 23-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 2.5 points.
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In addition, teams coached by Rick Carlisle are on a 14-31 ATS slide in home games versus terrible teams that are outscored by their opponents by 6.0 points or more per game. Dallas is not in good form. It has lost 3 in a row SU and its last 4 ATS. Take the points.

Jack Jones
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Pacers/Bucks UNDER 188.5
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The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks. Indiana is one of the worst offensive teams in the league this season, but one of the best defensively.
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The Pacers are scoring a woeful 88.1 points/game this season in large part because they are without their best scorer in Danny Granger. However, they have made up for it at the other end of the floor, limiting opponents to a mere 90.1 points/game on the year.
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Indiana is 31-12 to the UNDER in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The UNDER is 6-1 in Bucks last 7 home games. The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Bucks last 10 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

HARRY BONDI

Northern Illinois (-9.5) over Toledo

This one is for the MAC West title and a trip to the MAC Championship Game and we will back one of the hottest and most profitable teams in the country. Northern Illinois has won 9 straight since dropping their season opener to Iowa by one point. They are 9-1 ATS and are 5-0 when laying double digits so the almost 10 point spread does not worry us here. Husky QB Jordan Lynch is a good one and should have a field day against a Toledo defense that is ranked 116th in the nation! Take Northern Illinois to shoot down the Rockets.

Teddy Covers

Santa Clara at Saint Louis
Play: Saint Louis

Saint Louis somehow comes into the season unranked and under-the-radar, very good news for us in early season play. This team won 26 games last year and reached the Sweet 16. They return the core from that squad – even with star point guard Kwamain Mitchell out with a foot injury they still return three starters and several key bench contributors from last year’s team.

The Billikens are a good offensive team. They are a great defensive team, fighting on every possession. That’s their recipe for covering double digit pointspreads, and they’ve done it with consistency, notching doubl-digit wins against Tennessee State, Southern Illinois, Washington, Boston College, Villanova, Oklahoma, Portland, Vermont, Illinois-Springfield, Alabama State and Arkansas State all before Christmas last year. I’m expecting similar non-conference results in 2012 from a team that has the capacity to blow out opponents even when they score in the 60’s!

Santa Clara certainly isn’t going to be any worse than last year’s 8-22 team that went 0-16 in West Coast Conference play. They return every key contributor from that squad, including injured low post stud Marc Trasolini coming off an ACL tear last September and star guard Kevin Foster who was suspended following his arrest in January. They’ll be competitive in the WCC this year, but this is a major step up in class on the road for a team still finding their way. The betting markets love the ‘all starters returning’ angle for this Broncos team, betting this spread down earlier today; giving us a relatively cheap price to lay with the superior squad tonight!