David Banks
Ohio / Bowling Green Over
MAC football once again graces the ESPN airwaves on Wednesday night when the Ohio Bobcats (7-3, 5-5 ATS) travel to Perry Stadium to face the Bowling Green Falcons (4-6, 5-5 ATS) in a huge East Division showdown; kick-off for this one is slated to go at 8:00 ET.
Ohio took one step closer towards clinching the East and representing the division in the upcoming MAC Championship game after going into Central Michigan and handing the Chippewas a 43-28 defeat last Thursday night. The 15-point win covered the 7.5-point closing spread and moved Head Coach Frank Solich’s squad to 3-2 SU & ATS as a visitor. This will be the team’s final true road game of the season with what could be a potential showdown for divisional honors with Miami (OH) next week should they slip up in this spot and the Redhawks topple Western Michigan. Look for the Bobcats to look to their potent ground attack in this one, as the Falcons have been gouged to the tune of 200 yards per game on the ground (#100) while Ohio has battered opponents for an average of 205.5 rushing YPG (#26). OU has won and covered two of its three games played on the MAC road beating both Akron and C Mich after falling at Buffalo by a single point (38-37).
Even though Bowling Green entered last week’s home tussle with the Northern Illinois Huskies a sub .500 team, it still had a shot at winning the MAC East. That was until the West Division leading Huskies handed them an embarrassing 45-14 defeat as just six-point favorites. Now, BG is more or less just playing out the string needing two wins in their final two games just to become bowl eligible; they’d also need everyone in front of them in the standings to lay an egg as well to have a shot at going to the conference’s championship game. Needless to say, but it hardly looks as if that is going to occur, so Head Coach Dave Clawson better just have his kids honed in on finishing the year strong and getting better for next season. BG enters this one 2-3 SU & 3-2 ATS at home with outright wins over Morgan State and shockingly Temple.
Up until last season, the road team had won and covered each of these rivals’ previous four gridiron clashes. Ohio laid the gauntlet down at home in 2010, smashing the Falcons 49-25 as eight-point home chalk. The ‘over’ has cashed in three of these teams L/4 meetings. Ohio has gone 7-1 SU & ATS in its L/8 November tussles, and has covered five of its L/7 as a road chalk. Bowling Green stands 6-1 ATS the L/7 times it played off a double-digit home defeat, but is just 1-10 SU & 2-9 ATS its L/11 versus +.500 opposition.
Rocketman
New Mexico State @ New Mexico
Play On: New Mexico -13
New Mexico is 8-2 ATS last 3 years in November. Aggies are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. Aggies are 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Aggies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Aggies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Aggies are 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Mountain West. Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Aggies are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Lobos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Lobos are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. Western Athletic. Lobos are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Lobos are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 Wednesday games. Lobos are 31-12-1 ATS in their last 44 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Lobos are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Favorite is 6-0-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Aggies are 0-5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Aggies are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in New Mexico. We'll recommend a small play on New Mexico tonight!
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Western Michigan/Miami Ohio UNDER 60.5
We'll make a small wager on the under here as Western Michigan fits into a solid unders situation. Plays under on any team (W MICHIGAN) that allowed 42 points or more last game, provided that team is matched up against an opponent that is coming off a loss by 3 points or less, are 44-18 the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% win rate. We've seen just 50.7 total points scored on average with this situation. We'll play by the numbers and bet the under.
Steve Janus
Creighton +2
Creighton is considered to be the best team in the loaded Missouri Valley Conference, and have lived up to they hype with back-to-back 30+ wins to open the season. They have played some extremely soft competition to start the year, but there is no reason they should be getting points against UAB.
This will be the first game of the season for UAB, and there's a good chance this team will struggle out of the gates. The Blazers have to replace Conference USA Player of the Year Aaron Johnson and a very good player in Jamarr Sanders (17.8 ppg).
Creighton is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. BET THE BLUEJAYS +2!
Larry Ness
Princeton +12.5
The Princeton Tigers travel to Raleigh to take on the Wolfpack of NC State as part of the Legends Classic at the RBC Center. Sydney Johnson led the Tigers to the Ivy League title last season, won a one-game playoff to earn an NCAA bid and then his Tigers almost upset Kentucky in the first round of the Big Dance, before falling 59-57. Johnson left for Fairfield after the season and in steps Mitch Henderson (a 1998 grad), who has been a Northwestern assistant for 11 years. Gone are Maddox (13.8-7.0) and Mavraides (12.7-4.6-2.8) but the 6-7 Hummer (13.8-6.8) and Davis (11.9), who hit the game-winner vs Harvard in the playoff, are back to lead this team. NC State has a new coach as well in Mark Gottfried. He had a 10-year tenure at Alabama where he compiled a 210-132 record with five NCAA Tournament appearances and NC State is hoping he can restore Wolfpack BKB back to its past glory, something Sidney Lowe was not able to do. The Wolfpack have opened 2-0 (wins over NC-Ashville & Morehead St), playing without the 6-8 Leslie (17.0-7.2), who will miss one more game due to a suspension. However, the team owns a veteran backcourt with Williams (13.5-5.5-3.5), Wood (13.0) and Brown (9.0-7.5 APG) all playing well in the team's 2-0 start. The 6-8 Howell (19.5-11.5) plus the 6-9 Painter (15.5-8.5) have jumped on the early opportunities with Leslie suspended and the Wolfpack look way better than the team which went 15-18 (5-11 in the ACC) last year. However, Princeton has a way of disrupting one's play (just ask Kentucky) and it should be noted that Princeton has actually won FIVE of the six previous meetings between the two schools. Princeton lost the first game of the series in 1952 but has won five straight since with the most recent meeting coming in the second round of the 1999 NIT which the Tigers won 61-58. I'm taking the big points.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Long Beach Sttae +13.5 over PITTSBURGH: The Panthers are ranked 9th in the nation and they will be in the thick of the Big East race all year long, but this is a very yound team with 3 new starters and 10 Underclassmen, so it will take some time for them to gel together. The game vs rider showed that they need some time to gel as they only beat the Broncos by 8 points (22 point favs) and they allowed them 53% shooting from the field, plus Pitt lost the TO battle 9-5. Tonight the Panthers will be facing a much tougher opponent in Long Beach State as the 49ers or both deep and talented with 4 starters back from a team that went 14-2 in the Big West last year. I know, it's just the Big West, but you tell Carolina that after this team lost by just 5 points on the Heels on floor last year. Pitt will be making alot of noise come seasons end, but tonight they will have to fight and claw fro this win as the 49ers keep it close.
Oklahoma State/ Texas- San Antonio Under 137: Defense and a slow poaced offense is the style of play in Stillwater and it should give us a comfortable Under play tonight. The Cowboys come into this one allowing just 42.5 ppg and 31.8% shooting in their first 2 games. The Roadrunners doo like to push the ball, but OSU has the talent and ability to make the game at their own pace. The first 2 games this year and their last 6 games last year have combined to averaged just 122 ppg and that's right about where i see this on ending up, maybe a little higher, but it should still be a comfortable Under play.
2 UNIT PLAY
Oregon State/ Hofstra Over 144.5: Hofstra put up 89 pints and allowed 71 points in their opener. The Beavers 2 games have averaged 150.5 ppg, with OSU averaging 89.5 ppg. Both teams like the uptempo game and that fact has me seeing at least 150 in this one.
1 UNIT PLAY
New Mexico State +12 over NEW MEXICO: This in-state rivalry has seen the favorite go 6-0-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings, but I see the Aggies improved team being able to stay within the number here.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Vancouver/ Chicago Over 5.5: Both of these teams average over 3 gpg on the year, whiole Chicago is 19th in goals allowed (2.78 gpg) and Vancover is 20th in goals allowed (2.8 gpg). Chicago's last 9 games overall have seen 7.1 gpg being scored, while Vancouvers last 5 games has seen 6 gpg scored. Both off these team sare playing very well on offense right now and that has me seeing about 7 goals in this one.
2 UNIT PLAY
Anaheim/ Los Angeles Under 5: The OU is 1-9 in Anahiem's last 10 road games, while the OU is 22-46-8 when LA is a favorite. Anaheim has averaged just 2 gpg on the year, while LA has put up 2.4 gpg. Looks like a solid Under play here.
WUNDERDOG
Chicago at Vancouver
Pick: Under 5.5
The Canucks thought they should of won it all last year, but were outplayed by the Bruins in the Finals and fell one series short. They opened the season with a suspected hangover, but have been playing their best hockey of the season of late taking their last three out of four and, more importantly, allowing just nine goals in the four games. Both teams are playing at a high level, which would indicate a tight checking affair with goals at a premium. The Blackhawks defense has prevailed off two days rest where they are posting a 16-5 mark to the UNDER in their last 21. They have also played seven of their last ten roadies UNDER the total. Vancouver has seen just 25% (eight) of their last 32 home games exceed the total. I am on the UNDER in this one.
Hollywood Sports
New Mexico St. at New Mexico
Prediction: New Mexico St.
The Aggies were primed for a run to win the WAC last season after a nice showing in the NCAA Tournament the year before but injuries riddled this club that ended up with a 16-17 record. Most importantly, 6'6" forward Wendell McKines is healthy again and he poured in 18 points and 10 rebounds in New Mexico State's 89-75 win at Northern Colorado as a 3.5-point favorite. McKines leads a potentially strong frontcourt with five players of at least a 6'5" height (with three players 6'10" or taller). The Aggies have to also be happy with the 20 points sophomore shooting guard Christian Kabongo poured in as this club needs him to step up this year. New Mexico State is a reliable 16-6-4 ATS in their last 26 games after a point spread victory. Now they face their in-state rival who comes off a 92-40 win over New Orleans. The Lobos have high expectations in the Mountain West Conference this season given the return of senior MWC Player of the Year candidate, Drew Gordon, but this team has some serious question marks right now. The expected depth in the frontcourt has been depleted by the loss of two players to injury for the season. The Lobos will also have a new point guard in sophomore Kendall Williams who will be replacing the big shoes of the graduated Dairese Gary. Steve Alford's club must also see improvement in his club's defense that was 5th in the MWC in defensive efficiency and 7th in effective field goal percentage defense. New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as a favorite in the 7-12.5 point range. The Lobos are laying too many points against an improved Aggies team. Take the points with New Mexico State.