SPORTS ADVISORS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Central Michigan (8-2, 7-2 ATS) at Ball State (1-9, 5-5 ATS)
Central Michigan looks to remain the only unbeaten team in the Mid-American Conference and move another step closer to the West Division championship when it travels to Ball State Stadium for a divisional tussle with the Cardinals.
The Chippewas spotted Toledo leads of 7-0 and 14-7 last Wednesday – the first time all year they trailed a conference opponent – then scored six unanswered touchdowns en route to a 56-28 nationally televised rout, covering as a 17½-point home favorite. Star QB Dan LeFevour – four-year starter – stole the show again, accounting for six of his team’s eight touchdowns (2 passing, 4 rushing), and he finished 29 of 36 passing for 341 yards to go with 19 rushing yards on 14 carries, and Central Michigan rolled up 507 total yards.
The Chippewas lead Northern Illinois by one game in the MAC West Division. If Northern Illinois wins at Ohio on Saturday, those teams will square off for the division title at Central Michigan next week no matter the result of this game.
Ball State has followed up its only win of the season – a 29-27 victory over still-winless Eastern Michigan – with a pair of narrow losses to Ohio (20-17 at home) and Northern Illinois (26-20 on the road). On the bright side, the Cardinals covered as an underdog in both games, improving to 5-3 ATS in their last eight (5-2 ATS as a ‘dog). Ball State, which is 1-11 SU since starting last year 12-0, has scored 20 points or fewer in eight of its last 10 games (including four of its last five)
On the way to their perfect regular season last year, the Cardinals knocked off Central Michigan 31-24 as a six-point road favorite in a battle for the division title. Ball State ended a four-game SU and three-game ATS losing skid to the Chippewas with last year’s victory, despite getting outgained 466-407 and despite LeFevour’s 345-yard, two-TD passing day. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and CMU has cashed in five of its last six trips to Ball State Stadium.
Both teams can run the football – Central Michigan averages 169.7 rushing yards per game (4.6 per carry) and Ball State averages 163.2 rushing ypg (4.5 per carry) – but otherwise, the Chippewas are much stronger offensively. They put up 33.1 points, 402.5 total yards and 232.8 passing yards per game, while the Cardinals net just 20.5 points, 307 total yards and 143.8 passing yards per outing.
Central Michigan also has big advantages on defense, allowing 18 points and 341 yards per game (119 rushing ypg), compared with Ball State’s 28.6 points and 366.5 total yards allowed per contest (155.1 rushing ypg).
The Chippewas are on ATS runs of 37-15-3 overall, 11-5-2 on the road, 23-8-2 as a favorite, 5-1 as a chalk of more than 10 points, 23-7-2 against MAC foes and 18-6-2 versus losing teams. Ball State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven when catching more than 10 points and 4-1 in its last six in November, but it has failed to cover in five of six at home and four of five as a home pup.
The over is now 7-1 in Central Michigan’s last eight games, but otherwise the team is on “under” runs of 4-0 on the road, 4-1 as a road chalk, 4-1 on grass and 5-0 after a spread-cover. Ball State is riding “under” streaks of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 4-1 at home, 4-0 as an underdog and 8-2 in November. Finally, the last two series meetings in Ball State went over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Buffalo (3-7, 4-6 ATS) at Miami (Ohio) (1-10, 5-6 ATS)
Two MAC teams just playing for nothing but pride get national television exposure for the third straight week, with Buffalo visiting MAC East rival Miami (Ohio).
The Bulls have lost three straight games by a total of seven points, the last two at home to Bowling Green (30-29 as a three-point favorite) and Ohio (27-24 as a 1½-point chalk). Buffalo’s last four games (all against MAC opponents) were decided by four points or less, and its last five conference contests were decided by a total of 18 points, with the Buffs going 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS.
Miami’s lone victory of the season came against Toledo on Halloween – 31-24 as a five-point home underdog – but the Redhawks followed that with a 34-32 loss at Temple (covering as a 17-point underdog) and a 35-14 setback to Bowling Green on Thursday as a four-point home pup. Despite last week’s non-cover, Miami is still 5-2 ATS in its last seven (all as an underdog), which follows a 4-15 ATS slide.
Since opening the season with a 23-17 upset win at UTEP as a 10½-point underdog, Buffalo is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the highway. Meanwhile, going back to the end of the 2007 season the Redhawks are 3-22 SU, including 2-15 in MAC play and 1-9 at home against Division I-A competition.
Buffalo averaged 18.6 ppg in its first five games, but its offense has come to life in the last five, putting up an average of 29 ppg, tallying 24 or more in each contest. Meanwhile, the Redhawks had scored season-highs of 31 and 32 points in consecutive games before mustering just the two touchdowns against Bowling Green last week. Miami, which was shutout in its first two games against Kentucky (42-0) and Boise State (48-0), has scored 14 points or less in six of its 11 games this year.
Buffalo ended a 10-game, all-time series losing skid to Miami with last year’s 37-17 rout at home, finishing with a 476-383 edge in total offense (216-142 rushing). The Bulls have covered in three straight meetings, including a 31-28 loss as a 6½-point underdog in their last trip to Fred Yager Stadium in 2007.
The Bulls have cashed in 11 of their last 14 road games, but they’ve failed to cover in seven straight games as a favorite. The Redhawks’ current 5-2 ATS overall run is offset by pointspread nosedives of 6-13 in MAC contests, 4-9 at home, 2-7 in November and 8-21-1 against teams with a losing record.
Buffalo is on “over” stretches of 7-2 on the road, 6-2 as a favorite, 25-10 in conference and 5-1 in November. On the other hand, Miami is on “under” runs of 5-2 overall (all as a ‘dog), 4-1 at home (all as a ‘dog) and 5-1 when playing on grass. Finally, the over is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings, with the last four in a row topping the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(11) Butler (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at Northwestern (1-0 SU and ATS)
Butler, which entered this year with its highest preseason ranking in school history, makes the trek to Welsh Ryan Arena in Evanston, Ill., for a non-conference battle with the Wildcats.
The Bulldogs, who went one-and-done in last year’s NCAA Tournament, tipped off the season with Saturday’s 73-62 home win over Davidson, falling short as a 14-point favorite. It was Butler’s fifth consecutive ATS setback dating to February. Long known for its defense, Butler has limited 17 of its last 20 opponents – including eight of the last nine – to 63 points or fewer, with 12 of those 17 scoring less than 60 points.
Northwestern ended last year with three straight losses, including an opening-round NIT setback to Tulsa, but started off strong with Friday’s 77-55 rout of Northern Illinois as a 14-point home favorite. Like Butler, the Wildcats are a strong defensive team, allowing less than 70 points in seven straight games and 15 of the last 18.
These squads met last year in Indianapolis, and Butler eked out a 57-53 home win, pushing as a four-point favorite.
Despite their ongoing 0-5 ATS slump, the Bulldogs are on positive ATS runs of 35-15-1 in non-conference play, 3-0-1 against the Big Ten and 7-2-1 on Wednesday. Northwestern is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home and 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 non-league contests, but otherwise the Wildcats are in ATS funks of 0-3-1 against Horizon League opponents, 1-4 after a spread-cover, 7-15-1 on Wednesday and 0-6 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points.
Although an outstanding defensive squad, Butler is on “over” streaks of 9-3 overall, 5-1 on the road, 4-0 in non-conference games and 9-2 after a non-cover, but the under is 5-2 in the Bulldogs’ last seven against Big Ten opposition. Also, the over for Northwestern is on streaks of 3-1-1 overall, 19-7-1 at home, 3-1-1 in non-league games and 7-0 on Wednesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Miami (7-2, 6-3 ATS) at Atlanta (9-2, 10-1 ATS)
The red-hot Hawks shoot for their sixth consecutive win and cover when they welcome Dwyane Wade and the Heat to Philips Arena for a showdown between the top two teams in the Southeast Division.
Miami capped a five-game homestand with last night’s 100-87 loss to Oklahoma City as a seven-point home favorite. The Heat have alternated wins and losses in their last four games and haven’t lost two in a row all season, but they’ve now failed to cover in three straight games after starting the season 6-1 ATS. Miami is 2-0 SU and ATS on the road, knocking off Indiana (96-83 as a two-point underdog) and Washington (93-89 as a two-point underdog).
Atlanta needed overtime to knock off Portland 99-95 as a 3½-point home favorite Monday, rallying from a 12-point second-half deficit to extend its SU and ATS winning streaks to five. Joe Johnson scored 35 points (eight in overtime) to pace the Hawks against the Blazers, and during its win streak Atlanta is averaging 111.2 points per game (49.7 percent shooting) while allowing 96 ppg (45.5 percent). The Hawks are 5-0 SU and ATS at home, winning the first four by margins of 11, 11, 25 and 23 points prior to Monday’s narrow overtime win over Portland. Going back to last year, they’ve won seven straight regular-season games at Philips Arena.
These division rivals met in an opening-round playoff series last year, with Atlanta prevailing in seven games. Going back to the regular season last year, the Hawks are 6-3 against the Heat (5-4 ATS), and the home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings, with the host (and favorite) cashing in four of the last five.
The SU winner has covered in 22 of Miami’s last 24 games, while the winner is 21-1-1 ATS in Atlanta’s last 23. Finally, the winner cashed in all seven playoff games between these teams last year and is 17-2 ATS in the last 19 head-to-head clashes.
Miami is on ATS runs of 5-1 on Wednesday, 4-1 when playing on back-to-back nights and 5-2 against the Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, in addition to its 10-1 ATS run to start the season, Atlanta carries positive pointspread trends of 19-7-2 at home, 20-6-1 as a favorite, 6-0 as a favorite of five to 10½ points, 4-1-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-1-1 when playing on one day of rest and 4-0 on Wednesday.
The Heat are riding “under” streaks of 7-2 overall, 5-2 on the road, 4-0 in divisional games, 4-0 as an underdog and 10-2 against teams with a winning record. The under is also 8-3 in the Hawks’ last 11 division contests, but otherwise Atlanta is on “over” stretches of 6-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 6-0 as a favorite and 5-0 on Wednesday. Finally, the under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings between these squads, with five of the last seven in Atlanta staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
San Antonio (4-4 SU and ATS) at Dallas (8-3 SU and ATS)
The Spurs and Mavericks hook up for the second time in a week, with the scene shifting to American Airlines Arena where Dallas returns home in search of its fourth straight victory.
San Antonio has been idle since Saturday’s shocking 101-98 home loss to the Thunder as an 8½-point favorite. The Spurs have yet to win on the road this year (0-3 SU and ATS) and going back to last year’s opening-round playoff series loss to Dallas, they’ve dropped five straight on the highway (SU and ATS). This is San Antonio’s only roadie in an eight-game stretch, as it plays its next four in a row at home after tonight.
Dallas started its recent four-game road trip with last Wednesday’s 92-83 loss at San Antonio as a 1½-point favorite, then ripped off three straight wins and covers over Minnesota (89-77 as a 10½-point chalk), Detroit (95-90 as a 4½-point favorite) and Milwaukee (115-113 as a 1½-point underdog). In Monday’s win over the Bucks, All-Star forward Dirk Nowitzki led five Mavericks in double figures with a game-high 32 points, the final two coming on a buzzer-beating jumper in overtime to seal the win.
With last week’s nine-point home win, the Spurs snapped a three-game losing skid to Dallas – all in last year’s playoffs. The Mavs are 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings at American Airlines Arena (3-0 SU and ATS last three), and host is on a 4-1 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry. Additionally, the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last 11 head-to-head meetings.
Going back to last year, the winner has cashed in 12 straight Spurs games and 23 of Dallas’ last 25 outings, including all 11 this year.
Not only has San Antonio failed to cover in five straight road games, it is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 on Wednesday, 3-7 ATS in its last 10 against Southwest Division rivals and 3-8 in its last 11 against opponents with a winning record. Conversely, the Mavericks are on ATS upticks of 5-1 overall, 9-4 at home and 14-6 on Wednesday.
The Spurs have stayed under the total in five of their last seven road games, but from there, it’s all “over” trends for Gregg Popovich’s team, including 10-4 overall, 6-2 in divisional games, 9-3 against Western Conference foes, 10-1 after a SU loss, 12-2 after a non-cover and 4-0 when playing after three or more days’ rest. Similarly, the Mavericks are on “over” stretches of 5-2 overall, 5-2 at home, 4-1 against Southwest Division rivals and 6-1 when playing after one day of rest.
Lastly, the over is 5-2 in the last seven Mavs-Spurs battles and 3-1 in the last four in Dallas, though last week’s contest in San Antonio stayed well under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and OVER
DUNKEL INDEX
Central Michigan at Ball State
The Chippewas look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as a favorite of 10 1/2 points or more. Central Michigan is the pick (-14 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Chippewas favored by 19 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-14 1/2)
Game 301-302: Central Michigan at Ball State
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 90.497; Ball State 70.994
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 19 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 14 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-14 1/2); Over
Game 303-304: Buffalo at Miami (OH)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 76.016; Miami (OH) 72.892
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 3; 49 1/2
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 4; 51
Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+3); Under
NBA
New York at Indiana
The Pacers look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games with 0 days of rest. Indiana is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Pacers favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-6 1/2)
Game 501-502: Cleveland at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.761; Washington 117.205
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 6 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 4 1/2; 194
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-4 1/2); Over
Game 503-504: Miami at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 117.399; Atlanta 129.023
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 11 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 7 1/2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7 1/2); Under
Game 505-506: Charlotte at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 115.256; Philadelphia 113.654
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 1 1/2; 178
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4; 182
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+4); Under
Game 507-508: New York at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: New York 111.741; Indiana 121.181
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 9 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 6 1/2; 214
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-6 1/2); Under
Game 509-510: Oklahoma City at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 118.152; Orlando 125.116
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 7; 189
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 11 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+11 1/2); Under
Game 511-512: Golden State at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 113.397; Boston 124.043
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 10 1/2; 192 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 513-514: LA Clippers at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 111.711; Memphis 113.453
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 1 1/2; 205 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 4 1/2; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+4 1/2); Over
Game 515-516: Houston at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 120.576; Minnesota 113.091
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 7 1/2; 208 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 6 1/2; 199 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6 1/2); Over
Game 517-518: New Jersey at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 110.764; Milwaukee 120.988
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 10; 215 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 519-520: Toronto at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 115.819; Utah 121.303
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 5 1/2; 219
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 8 1/2; 214 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+8 1/2); Over
Game 521-522: San Antonio at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 118.755; Dallas 126.247
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 7 1/2; 189 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 523-524: Detroit at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 116.333; Portland 128.355
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 12; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 10 1/2; 179
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-10 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Western Carolina at Texas
The Longhorns look to take advantage of a Western Carolina team that is 0-7-1 ATS in its last 8 road games against teams with a winning home record. Texas is the pick (-25) according to Dunkel, which has the Longhorns favored by 31. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-25).
Game 525-526: Rhode Island at Brown
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 60.148; Brown 51.153
Dunkel Line: Rhode Island by 9
Vegas Line: Rhode Island by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brown (+9 1/2)
Game 527-528: VCU at Western Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 61.684; Western Michigan 51.581
Dunkel Line: VCU by 10
Vegas Line: VCU by 6
Dunkel Pick: VCU (-6)
Game 529-530: Illinois-Chicago at Central Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 57.578; Central Michigan 55.776
Dunkel Line: Illinois-Chicago by 2
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (+1 1/2)
Game 531-532: Toledo at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 44.378; Cincinnati 65.731
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 21
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-21)
Game 533-534: Cornell at Massachusetts
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 59.761; Massachusetts 59.773
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Cornell by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (+2 1/2)
Game 535-536: Kent State at Youngstown State
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 57.336; Youngstown State 53.764
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Kent State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (-2)
Game 537-538: Butler at Northwestern
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 67.319; Northwestern 66.486
Dunkel Line: Butler by 1
Vegas Line: Butler by 4
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+4)
Game 539-540: Utah State at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Utah State 62.230; Utah 65.723
Dunkel Line: Utah by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Utah by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-2 1/2)
Game 541-542: Nebraska at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 65.411; St. Louis 59.984
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 1
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-1)
Game 543-544: Nevada at UNLV
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 60.835; UNLV 62.833
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 2
Vegas Line: UNLV by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+5 1/2)
Game 545-546: UC-Irvine at Loyola-Marymount
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 46.961; Loyola-Marymount 50.449
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Marymount by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Loyola-Marymount by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Marymount (-2 1/2)
Game 547-548: Georgia Southern at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Southern 38.128; Florida 68.904
Dunkel Line: Florida by 31
Vegas Line: Florida by 23
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-23)
Game 549-550: Manhattan at Princeton
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 52.761; Princeton 51.475
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Princeton by 3
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+3)
Game 551-552: Arkansas State at SE Missouri State
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 44.261; SE Missouri State 41.495
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 3
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (+5 1/2)
Game 553-554: Western Carolina at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 46.104; Texas 76.863
Dunkel Line: Texas by 31
Vegas Line: Texas by 25
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-25)
NHL
Phoenix at Minnesota
The Wild look to build on their 8-2 record in their last 10 home games. Minnesota is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Wild favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-150)
Game 1-2: Florida at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 12.199; Buffalo 12.212
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-215); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-215); Over
Game 3-4: Dallas at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.454; Detroit 12.591
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-170); Over
Game 5-6: Phoenix at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 10.630; Minnesota 11.063
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-150); Under
Game 7-8: Colorado at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.858; Edmonton 10.677
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+125); Over
Game 9-10: Philadelphia at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 12.624; Los Angeles 12.474
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Over
Rob Vinciletti
Buffalo U vs. Miami Ohio
Play: Over 51.5
This game fits a nice 74% over simulator projection. There are also several solid trends pointing to the over in this contest. Buffalo has gone over 8 of 9 times in weeks 10-13. When they are +3 to -3 they have gone over 9 of 11 times. They come in off back to back losses,a role which has them going over the total 6 of 8 times. These two teams have gone over the total in all 4 previous match ups. Miami Ohio has struggled on defense and has been improving on offense. Look for this one to fly over the total tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Utah St. at Utah
Prediction: Utah
When the Utes host the Aggies in this in-state rivalry Wednesday night they will be playing with revenge from a 66-64 loss suffered at Logan last season. That's good news for Utah fans as the Utes are 13-5-1 ATS at home when seeking revenge from a non-conference loss, including 5-1 SU and ATS the last six games. Look for more of the same here this evening.
BIG AL
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
These two Texas rivals met earlier this month in the Alamo City, and the Spurs shocked the Mavs 92-83, even though Gregg Popovich's crew played without two of its best players -- Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. That result didn't surprise me, as we had a very strong play on the Spurs in that game. I knew that George Hill was a capable back-up for Parker, and that Duncan's absence could be covered -- at least in the short-term -- by Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair. The Spurs also have played well at home this season (4-1 thru Saturday's action). But San Antonio is 0-3 on the road this year, with its losses by an average of 11 ppg. That's not a good sign. Moreover, Dallas has played very well following its loss to the Spurs. The Mavs now stand at 8-3, and have won their last three games. Monday's victory was particularly impressive, as the Mavs won an overtime contest against Brandon Jennings and the upstart Bucks. In that game, Dirk Nowitzki hit a last-second shot to get his team the win. With revenge on their minds, I expect the Mavericks to handily defeat the Spurs tonight. And it's also worth noting that .800 (or worse) NBA teams off three straight road wins, are a solid 85-50 ATS at home, if they're rested, and priced between -4 and -15 points. Lay the points with Dallas.
JR TIPS
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PISTONS at TRAILBLAZERS
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The Portland Trail Blazers just came off of a successful road trip but look to rebound from their first loss in seven games tonight when they face a Detroit Pistons team trying to avoid its first three-game losing streak of the season. Portland returns to the Rose Garden following a 4-1 trip that ended with Monday's 99-95 overtime loss to Atlanta Hawks after leading by 12 in the third quarter and nine heading into the fourth. All-Star Brandon Roy averaged 18.2 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.4 assists on the road trip and Portland held its opponents to 82.8 points and 39.6 percent shooting on the seven-day trip leading the NBA in both categories limiting teams to 88.1 points and 41.2 percent from the field for the season. Forward Travis Outlaw is averaging 9.9 points off the bench but will have surgery Wednesday to fix a stress fracture in his left foot and is out indefinitely. In Detroit's last visit to Portland, Outlaw hit a fadeaway jumper with 8.9 seconds to beat the Pistons and Tayshaun Prince led Detroit with 26 points in that contest, but the veteran forward has missed the last eight games and will miss tonight's due to a ruptured disc in his lower back as well.The Pistons loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night trailing by as many as 28 points in the third quarter although Detroit fough hard and pulled within seven with 1:55 remaining before Lakers guard Shannon Brown scored five unanswered points. Wil Bymun scored 27 points in Sunday's 95-90 loss to Dallas and led Detroit with 24 points and six assists last night scoring 20 or more in a career-best three straight games. First-year Piston Ben Gordon rebounded from a season-worst five-point outing against the Mavericks and scored 18 points last night. Gordon averaged 14.0 points against Portland in 2008-09 with Chicago while Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge averaged 26.5 points as Portland swept the season series against Detroit lasy year. Portlant is coming home after a five game road trip and the first game back at home is always the toughest. With the Pistons coming to town, there won"t be that much excitement after their road trip which will enable this Piston team that plays hard to stay within that double-digit spread.
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TAKE DETROIT +10.5
JIM FEIST
NEW JERSEY NETS / MILWAUKEE BUCKS
TAKE: MILWAUKEE BUCKS
The Bucks are 4-1 at home and come off a frustrating loss in OT. Dirk Nowitzki hit a fallaway 18-footer with a hand in his face as time expired to give the Dallas Mavericks a 115-113 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday night. It was their first home defeat as the Bucks fell to 3-1 on their current six-game homestand. Fortunately, a cupcake comes to town in the winless Nets. 84 ppg is second worst in the NBA and they are dead last with an incredible 40% shooting from the field! Milwaukee has no offensive problems with options inside and out, averaging 100 ppg. Offense and home court will be the difference in this bounce back game, play the Bucks.
MTi Sports
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Charlotte Bobcats at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats
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The 76ers are a mess. In their last game, they were up at the half as a road dog in Chicago, but let the Bulls off the hook, losing 94-88. The 76ers were led by 24 points from Iguodala. This is not a good spot for the Sixers. Philadelphia is 0-9 ATS (-9.3 ppg) at home after a loss in which Andre Iguodala was the Seventysixers' high scorer and 0-4 ATS off a loss as a dog in which they led by 10+ points. In addition, the 76ers are 0-5 ATS (-9.4 ppg) after two losses in which Samuel Dalembert took fewer than 10 shots in each
Dominic Fazzini
Central Michigan -14 at BALL STATE
Hit a clunker Tuesday with my complimentary selection on Arkansas, but I'm still 7-2 on my last nine free plays and I will definitely rebound today!
Central Michigan quarterback Dan LeFevour is one of the best QBs in the nation that few people have heard of. The senior has completed 70 percent of his passes for 2,189 yards and 18 touchdowns with just five interceptions.
LeFevour is heading an offensive attack that is averaging 33.1 points and 401.5 yards per game. He is also the team's leading rusher, with 567 yards and 13 TDs, twice rushing for more than 100 yards in a game. He accounted for six TDs (four rushing, two passing) last week in the Chippewas' 56-28 victory over Toledo.
Central Michigan is undefeated in MAC play this year, and has lost only at Arizona (19-6) and at Boston College (31-10) in 2009. The Chippewas are 23-7-2 ATS in their last 32 conference games. They trailed Toledo 7-0 and 14-7 last week before scoring six unanswered touchdowns to cover as a 17 1/2-point home favorite.
Ball State has won just one game this season, a 29-27 victory at Eastern Michigan on Oct. 24, and is 0-5 straight up at home. The Cardinals are averaging 20.5 points per game, but give up 28.6. The Chippewas, meanwhile, allow just 18 points per game.
Central Michigan is 37-15-3 ATS in its last 55 games overall, 23-8-2 ATS in its last 33 as a favorite and 11-5-2 ATS in its last 18 road games. Ball State, however, is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games and 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home underdog. The Chippewas are 5-1 ATS in their last six games at Ball State. Take Central Michigan to cover easily tonight.
4♦ CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Jeff Benton
Oklahoma City +11' at ORLANDO
Scored a free-play winner with the Nuggets over the Raptors on Tuesday. For Wednesday, it’s back to the NBA, and I’ll take the big points with the Thunder at Orlando.
I know this is a bit of a revenge spot for the Magic, who were taken to the woodshed at Oklahoma City 10 days ago, losing 102-74 as a six-point underdog. It was as ugly as the final score suggests, as the Thunder had a 57.1 percent-36.8 percent shooting edge and a 45-30 rebounding advantage. Still, revenge in the NBA is way overrated – it’s not like in college sports, or even the NFL. Besides, I don’t think Oklahoma City’s win was that big of a fluke. After all, last December, when the Thunder were making strides but weren’t quite as strong a team as they are now, they went to Orlando and held their own in a 98-89 loss, covering as a 13-point underdog. (In fact, the road team has cashed in five of the last seven meetings.)
The Thunder come into this game having won and covered three straight road games after Tuesday’s 100-87 rout of the Heat in Miami as a seven-point underdog. And beginning with the blowout over Orlando on Nov. 8, Oklahoma City is on a 4-2 SU and ATS run. At the same time, the Magic are just 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last eight games, failing to cover in three of their last four at home. Additionally, only two of the Magic’s last seven victories were by more than 10 points, and one of those was against New Jersey (which is 0-11 on the season).
Oklahoma City is on ATS runs of 4-1 as an underdog, 14-5 as a road underdog of 11 or more points, 5-2 when playing on consecutive nights and 16-7-1 against Eastern Conference opponents. Throw in the fact that the Magic were dealt a big blow yesterday when it was announced that point guard Jameer Nelson is out four to six weeks with a knee injury, and I’m all over these big points.
4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Bobby Maxwell
Utah State at UTAH -3'
Another FREE winner on Tuesday with the Bulls blowing out the Kings puts me on a 12-4 run with comp selections. Another easy one tonight comes from the college hardwood as I'm laying the small chalk with Utah at home over Utah State.
These in-state rivals get together each year in the early part of the season and nine times over the last 10 years, the home team has gotten the win. Count on the same thing happening tonight as I lay the small chalk with the Utes.
Last year Utah State got the 66-64 win but failed to cover as a four-point home favorite. In 2007, Utah delivered a beatdown to Utah State, winning 72-48.
Also gotta like the Utes tonight because they got a big wakeup call on Friday night when Idaho went to Salt Lake City and got a 94-87 victory as a 10-point underdog. Utah got torn up on the boards, getting outrebounded 33-23 and you know that’s something to has been worked on the last few days of practice.
Utah State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against Mountain West teams and 1-4 ATS in its last five after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Utah is on ATS runs of 5-1 after a non-cover, 17-5 at home against teams with winning home records and 6-0 ATS on Wednesdays.
I expect Utah to come out and rebound like never before as this team can’t afford to give up any possessions or points on easy second chances. The Utes are going to pull away late and win this one by 8.
4♦ UTAH
EZWINNERS
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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic -11
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The Magic will be seeking revenge for their 102-74 loss earlier this season at Oklahoma City. The Thunder are coming off of a very satisfying road win at Miami last night and this will be their fourth game in five nights. Oklahoma City will have Orlando's attention for this game. "We didn't play with energy, and they did," Magic Center Dwight Howard said about the first meeting between these two teams. "They were all over the place, and we were a step behind on everything: pick-and-rolls, rotations, everything." I expect a much better effort by Orlando tonight against an Oklahoma City team that is in a bad scheduling spot. Lay the points.
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
356 - 243 run 58 %
Free Play WED V C U -6
(Dunkel has VCU by 10)
8)
LT Profits
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New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers
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The New York Knicks may be 1-9 straight up and 2-8 against the spread, but that has only served to give us some nice line value here vs. a currently overrated Indiana Pacers team playing without rest here.
Granted, the Pacers have now won five straight games, but outside of Danny Granger and possibly Roy Hibbert, this team does not frighten anyone and truth be told, Indiana will probably have to fight and scrape just to make the playoffs before all is said and done.
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Stock analysts always say to buy low and sell high, and we feel this is an excellent spot to sell high with an Indiana team that is not nearly as good as it has looked lately. It is also worth noting that the Pacers were the latest team to knock off the winless New Jersey Nets last night, and Indiana was just 9-12 SU when playing with no rest last season while getting outscored by -2.7 points per game, and they were 1-6 SU with no rest off of a win.
Now make no mistake, the Knicks are not a good basketball team. However, the Knicks do usually perform better vs. teams that play as little defense as they do, and the Pacers are not exactly renowned for their defense either. In fact, the Knicks won outright 122-113 as just four-point underdogs the last time they visited Indiana in January, and the visiting team in now 3-1 ATS in the last four head-to-head meetings.
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While the Knicks may not duplicate that outright upset from their last trip here, although doing so would not be shocking, we do expect the New Yorkers to stay in this game to the final buzzer.
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Pick: Knicks +6.5 (-110)
BEN BURNS
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Phoenix Coyotes @ Minnesota Wild
PICK: Minnesota Wild -140
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Off three straight losses, the Wild could really use a victory. If history is any indication, tonight's opponent should provide them with an excellent opportunity to earn one.
The Wild are 10-1 their last 11 meetings with the Coyotes and 12-2 the last 14. That includes a perfect 7-0 record the last seven times that the teams faced each other here at Minnesota. The Wild outscored the Coyotes by a commanding 27-9 count in those games, most recently earning a 6-3 victory on 1/13/09.
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With this evening's o/u line still at 5.5 (under is -135 or -140) its worth noting that the Wild are a perfect 5-0 the last five times that they played a home game with a total of 5.5. Looking back further and we find them at a profitable 18-4 their last 22 in that situation. Consider Minnesota