Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 17,2010

Frank Jordan

Bowling Green vs. Toledo
Play: Bowling Green +10.5

Bowling Green is 2-8 overall with just one win in six MAC games as they head to Toledo. That lone win came last time road game at Central Michigan where they won 17-14. Toledo is 6-4 this year with a 5-1 conference record and that conference loss did come last time out as they got beat up by Northern Illinois 65-30. Look for Toledo to take Bowling Green too lightly as the Falcons find a way late to fly past the Rockets. Play Bowling Green

Jim Feist

Knicks vs. Kings
Take: Over 209

The Knicks are putting up plenty of points, 101.8 ppg, 12th in the NBA. It's a good uptempo attack for Mike D'Antonio with Amare Stoudemire and young playmaker Ray Felton. They take on a Sacramento Kings team that prefers an uptempo pace and will do so with the tired Knicks in team (NY is playing the second of a back to back spot, at Denver last night). Both teams are soft on defense allowing over 105 ppg, tied for 6th most in the NBA and both allow over 47% shooting. Look for an uptempo, offensive game, Play the NY Knicks/Kings Over the total.

Scott Spreitzer

South Alabama @ Southern Miss
PICK: Southern Miss -13

Larry Eustachy's squad returns all five starters from a season ago. It's a So Miss squad that will get after opponents for 40-minutes. The Eagles held their opposition to 59.8 ppg last season, ranking 12th in the nation, overall. As all Eustachy teams, the Eagles out-work the opposition on the glass, wearing teams out. They finished 8th in the nation in rebound margin. And again, I mention these things because all five starters are back. Southern Miss has been a nice bankroll builder, currently riding a 21-9 ATS run going back to last season. And under the direction of Larry Eustachy, the Golden Eagles are on a 35-21 ATS run as a favorite. We won with Southern Miss on Friday and we'll ride the Golden Eagles again on Wednesday as they host South Alabama!

Tom Freese

Knicks at Kings
Play: Over

New York is 6-0 OVER vs. NBA Pacific teams and they are 8-3 OVER their last 11 games as road underdogs. New York is 15-7 OVER their last 22 games vs. Western Conference teams. The Knicks are 6-2 OVER as an underdog of 0.5 to 4.5 points. Sacramento is 10-4-1 OVER on Wednesday. The Kings are 5-2 OVER when their opponent scores 100 or more points in their last game. The Kings are 9-4 OVER their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record. These teams are 10-4 OVER their last 14 meetings.

Tony George

Chicago Bulls vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: San Antonio Spurs -7

Play the Spurs tonight against the Bulls who struggle on the road and are clearly outmanned in the paint here. The Spurs have beaten opponents at home this year by an average of 8.4 ppg, and tonight they extend the hot streak against a young team who will face some tough defense in the backcourt. Duncan and company will school the youngsters here at home where they are tough!

Rocketman

Houston @ Oklahoma City
Play On: Houston +7

Houston is scoring 109.3 points per game on the road this year. Houston is 6-1 SU overall vs Oklahoma City the past 3 years. Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. Rockets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Rockets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. Thunder are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. Thunder are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Thunder are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference. Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Thunder are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing SU record. Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Thunder are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on LA Clippers +5

I know the Clippers have some injuries they're dealing with, but what has Minnesota done to deserve this kind of respect tonight? The Clippers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings in this series, and they won't leave anything on the court as they try to end a six-game slide against a team of a similar caliber.

Minnesota has covered the spread in 5 straight - all as an underdog of 3.5 or more points. Now, all of a sudden, one of the worst teams in the NBA last season is a 5-point favorite. I smell something fishy. Consider that the Timberwolves are a lousy 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite.

From a point spread stand point, this is a matchup that has been dominated by the road team. In fact, the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take the points as this one goes right down to the wire.

Ross Benjamin

Delaware @ Cornell
Play: Delaware +4.5

This is a far cry from the Cornell team that went to the "Sweet 16" a year ago. Gone are four senior starters in addition to head coach Steve Donahue who accepted the same position at Boston College at the conclusion of last season. The Blue Hens still have a way to go as evidenced by the 20-point loss in their opener versus Ohio in their season opener. However they have experienced starters and a couple of pretty good freshmen that were brought. Cornell is overvalued in this this spot.

Info Plays

3* on New York Knicks +4

Reasons the Knicks cover:

1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home favorites (SACRAMENTO) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record. This is a 65-28 ATS System hitting 69.9% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 2-0 this season.

2.) New York is 35-19 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are 14-3 ATS in road games after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Sacramento is 14-31 ATS in home games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. The Kings have failed to cover the spread in 6 straight games. Bet the Knicks on the road.

Teddy Covers

Houston @ Oklahoma City
PICK: Houston +7

The Rockets have been arguably the biggest disappointment in the Western Conference so far this season, stumbling with a 3-7 record out of the gate. But Houston isn’t in panic mode – their talented roster just needs some time to jell, particularly after losing starting point guard Aaron Brooks to an ankle injury.

Rick Adelman’s squad hasn’t been getting blown out – six of their seven losses have come by seven points or less. They just haven’t been able to hit big shots or get key stops during crunch time on a consistent basis; the type of problem that won’t last forever.

From a value perspective, this game stands out. First of all, the Rockets haven’t been this big of an underdog all year, including in road games against the Lakers and Spurs (losses by two points and three points in OT). Oklahoma City certainly isn’t better than the Lakers or Spurs right now, a young team without much frontcourt muscle that has struggled mightily on the defensive end of the court.

The Thunder are 0-7 ATS in their last seven tries as favorites, failing to cover a single pointspread as chalk since their season opening win over Chicago. Scott Brooks has seen his team lose four times in SU fashion as chalk during that span, in large part due to the 48 percent shooting that they’ve allowed – only Sacramento and Toronto are worse. That makes tonight’s inflated pointspread quite a hurdle for OKC to climb against a Rockets squad that has won their last two on the road while staying competitive in every previous road game they’ve played. 2* Take Houston.

Sam Martin

Wis-Green Bay at Marquette
Prediction: Wis-Green Bay

Too many points here for Marquette to be laying against a decent Wisconsin Green Bay team here tonight. This is the same Phoenix team (Green Bay's team name) that had 22 wins last year, and even upset a ranked Wisconsin Badgers squad last season. Marquette didn't seem to impressive in their first game games, and this will be their toughest test of the young season. We're not calling for a Green Bay outright win here, but we think the final margin of victory stays in single-digits.

Marc Lawrence

Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: Denver Nuggets

When the Nuggets meet the Trailblazers in Portland Thursday night on TNT they will take the court knowing that Denver has met with a good share of success lately in this series, going 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS the last 13 games. In addition, the Blazers are on a 0-4 SU and ATS losing slide on Thursdays of late. With that, look for the underdog to improve to 9-3 ATS in Nuggets' games this season here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Denver.

SPORTS WAGERS

Anaheim +1.52 over MINNESOTA

Without trying to sound like a broken record, the Minnesota Wild offer up nothing as the chalk. Tonight they’re a big favorite over the superior Ducks and win or lose here there is tremendous value on this pup. The fact that the Wild has a winning record is remarkable when you consider that they’re the second best team on the ice every game they play. They always seem to run into some soft goaltenders and ultimately win. This team is either incredibly opportunistic or incredibly lucky and we’re not buying the former. Minnesota has won four of its last six and in each win, not one, not two, not three, but in all four victories the opposition dominated play. They had a lousy 18 shots on net in its last game, a 4-1 victory over Tampa on Sunday. In a recent game against the Sharks they had 16 shots on net and won that one too. Now the Wild will return home after a four game trip and that’s almost always a difficult spot. The Ducks will conclude a brief three game trip that started on Saturday in Chicago. This will be its third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs but that’s not going to be a deterrent. The bottom line is that when you’re taking back 3-2 against the Wild you’re getting outstanding value because this might be the worst team in the NHL and they simply cannot keep winning when they get so badly outplayed every game. Play: Anaheim +1.52 (Risking 2 units).

Phoenix +1.29 over CALGARY

The Flames are another team that returns home from a four-game trip tonight after spending eight days on the road. Calgary last played on Saturday night in San Jose so they’ve been off for three full days as well. That’s not a good thing. This is about the worst playing conditions that a team can find itself in. That being, returning home from a trip with extra rest. What that equals is a flat squad times 10. Furthermore, the Flames are just not a good team. That 5-4 loss in San Jose is a flattering score. They’ve lost six of its last seven and they don’t do anything well. They have trouble scoring, they can’t defend and Mikko Kiprusoff is getting worse each season. That’s what happens when a goalie is given a heavy workload year after year after year. There’s also trouble within the organization. Player’s aren’t happy, Jerome Iginla has just one goal in his last eight games and all of this isn’t much of a surprise. This is a veteran squad with a whole slew of players past their prime. The Coyotes come in here very warm. They’ve picked up points in five straight and that includes three wins in a row and OT losses against Detroit and Pittsburgh. We get the better team plus a tag in a very favorable spot. The Coyotes are 0-5 in OT, thus the regulation wager. Play Phoenix +1.35 (Risking 2 units).

Boston +1.15 over N.Y. RANGERS

The Rangers are really playing some decent hockey these days with three straight wins and four victories over its last six. They’re getting some outstanding production from Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan and now Marion Gaborik is back. However, the Rangers are under .500 at home while the B’s have been near flawless on the road. Throw in the fact that the Blue Shirts are coming off an extremely emotional win over Pittsburgh and the Rangers could be caught flat-footed here. In that hard fought Pitt game, the Rangers held a 1-0 lead late into the third period. They worked like dogs trying to preserve it but the Pens scored two quick goals with about two minutes remaining to take a 2-1 lead. The Rangers took a penalty and it looked like game over. However, Marc Stall scored a short-handed goal to force extra time and the then New York scored in OT. They went nuts and it had to have felt like a playoff win. Those types of games are draining both mentally and physically and now the Rangers are in tough against a team that has to be sick of losing to the Rangers. New York has gone 7-3-0 in the last 10 matchups with Boston, and has won five straight and 11 of 13 meetings at home. Don’t think for a second that the Bruins aren’t aware of this. This is a winnable game for them and they’re feeling much better after a solid 3-0 win over the Devils. Also note that the B’s are 6-1 on the road and they’re 7-0 this season when scoring first. Play: Boston +1.15 (Risking 2 units).

CAROLINA -½ +1.48 over Ottawa

Great spot for the Canes for a number of reasons. First, they’re coming off back-to-back losses to Philly and Montreal in which they were outscored 15-3. That stings and with four days off to digest two straight blowout losses you can be damn sure that Carolina will be a lot more focused tonight. The Canes can actually be excused for it because they went through hell in terms of its travel schedule in the season’s first month and it caught up to them. They’ve had very little travel over the last 11 days so you can expect them to be well rested, finally, and probably very sharp tonight. Make no mistake, the Hurricanes are a very dangerous team with a ton of upside but its recent string of bad losses has caused its stock to sink quickly. That’s the best time to buy and while we can’t guarantee a win we can almost assure of you of a strong game by the host. Enter the Sens, a team that NEVER wins in this building and that’s when the Canes were lousy. Also consider that the Sens will play its third road game in succession and will play this one under difficult circumstances. We’re sure you’ve already heard or read about it; Sens assistant coach Luke Richardson lost his daughter in a devastating suicide on Saturday. She was 14 years old. Nothing is more heart wrenching or devastating than the loss of a child under those circumstances and the whole team will attend the services this morning before flying to Raleigh afterwards. It’s near impossible to play a strong game after such an emotional event and one really has to wonder how the players will be feeling while they’re lacing up their skates in preparation for this one. With that in mind and with the aforementioned two successive blowout losses, this one appears to be heavily in the Canes favor. Play: Carolina -½ +1.48 (Risking 2 units).

Matt Fargo

Pennsylvania vs. Manhattan
Play: Pennsylvania -4

We won with Penn last week over Davidson as the Quakers won outright as underdogs. The role switches now as they are road favorites but for good reason. All five starters are back for the Quakers and they will be in contention for the Ivy League title this season. Three All-Ivy players return, including junior point guard Zack Rosen who averaged 17.7 ppg and 4.4 apg and he was named Preseason Ivy League Player of the Year. He is the best playmaker in the Ancient Eight and he has the ability to take over a game. Also returning is forward Jack Eggleston who the only Penn player to start all 28 games last season, and finished second among Ivy League players in overall rebounding with 6.4 rpg and seventh in scoring at 13.0 ppg. Eggleston also led Penn with 21 blocked shots. Injuries played a huge role in the Quakers problems last season and the return of Tyler Bernardini is a big one as he missed all but two games last season after leading the team in scoring two years ago. Center Andreas Schreiber is also back after missing time. Penn was able win over Davidson despite some poor play from Bernardini as the Quakers got a huge effort from freshman Miles Cartwright who led all scorers with 18 points. Manhattan is not as fortunate as the Jaspers are actually lucky to be 1-0. They defeated NJIT by a mere five points in their opener, yes the same NJIT basketball team that lost 51 straight games ending just two years ago. A win is a win but Manhattan should have even been that close, which shows the struggles taking place right now. No offense to the top teams in the MAAC, but when you are picked to finish near the bottom of this conference, things must be tough. The Jaspers have only one starter back from their 11-win season a year ago and even he was not a good one so it is definitely a big rebuilding year. It will take some time for these young players to come together. Despite being a road favorite, I think there is a ton of value on Penn as they will be undervalued for a while until it is realized that the Quakers are a strong team. 3* Penn Quakers