Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 19

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Oklahoma at Creighton
The Sooners head to Creighton tonight to face a Bluejays team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 home games. Oklahoma is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sooners favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-2)

Game 523-524: Wright State at Bowling Green (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wright State 58.337; Bowling Green 56.496
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 1
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (+7 1/2)

Game 525-526: Evansville at Miami (OH) (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 56.157; Miami (OH) 50.380
Dunkel Line: Evansville by 6
Vegas Line: Evansville by 3
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (-3)

Game 527-528: Western Michigan at Oakland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 58.423; Oakland 55.557
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 3
Vegas Line: Oakland by 1
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+1)

Game 529-530: Oklahoma at Creighton (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 70.887; Creighton 66.020
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 5
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-2)

Game 531-532: WI-Green Bay at Wisconsin (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 58.527; Wisconsin 71.149
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (+15 1/2)

Game 533-534: Wake Forest at Arkansas (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 54.543; Arkansas 66.934
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Arkansas by 10
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (-10)

Game 535-536: Santa Clara at Utah State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 58.305; Utah State 62.235
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 4
Vegas Line: Utah State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (-2)

Game 537-538: UC-Irvine at Arizona (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 66.437; Arizona 79.586
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 13
Vegas Line: Arizona by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Irvine (+16 1/2)

Game 539-540: Pepperdine at San Jose State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 51.568; San Jose State 49.931
Dunkel Line: Pepperdine by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Pepperdine by 4
Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+4)

Game 541-542: St. Joseph's at Gonzaga (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 54.396; Gonzaga 75.963
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 19
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-19)

Game 543-544: Appalachian State at Furman (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 47.454; Furman 44.535
Dunkel Line: Appalachian State by 3
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 545-546: Jacksonville State at Cleveland State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville State 38.013; Cleveland State 61.373
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 23 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 14
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (-14)

Game 547-548: Morehead State at Cincinnati (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Morehead State 60.513; Cincinnati 69.097
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Morehead State (+10 1/2)

Game 549-550: Siena at St. Bonaventure (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 57.360; St. Bonaventure 63.749
Dunkel Line: St. Bonaventure by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Bonaventure by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (-3 1/2)

Game 551-552: IUPUI at WI-Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 38.087; WI-Milwaukee 59.406
Dunkel Line: WI-Milwaukee by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 553-554: Oral Roberts at Missouri (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oral Roberts 54.554; Missouri 57.739
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 3
Vegas Line: Missouri by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oral Roberts (+7 1/2)

Game 555-556: Austin Peay at Samford (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Austin Peay 45.378; Samford 42.024
Dunkel Line: Austin Peay by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Austin Peay by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Austin Peay (-1 1/2)

Game 557-558: Montana State at CS-Northridge (10:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 40.899; CS-Northridge 57.536
Dunkel Line: CS-Northridge by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: CS-Northridge by 14
Dunkel Pick: CS-Northridge (-14)

Game 571-572: Northern Colorado at New Mexico State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 48.949; New Mexico State 59.046
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 10
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 12
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (+12)

Jim Feist

Grizzlies at Raptors
Pick: Under

Two teams that have enjoyed great success early in this season meet here on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are 10-1 S/U, though only 5-6 ATS. The Raptors are 8-2 S/U and 7-3 ATS. Memphis only loss came against Milwaukee of all teams back on Nov 8, a 93-92 setback for the only blemish on an otherwise fantastic record. The Grizzlies saw five of their first seven games go UNDER, but three of the last four have gone OVER. Surprisingly, the Grizzlies and Houston Rockets flew over their total last game, despite both teams being two of the best defensive clubs in the NBA. Conversely, the Raptors have been a pretty good OVER bet, with seven of their 10 games going OVER. However, the three unders, all came at home. That's mainly because they have played some slower paced teams at home. Same case here on Wednesday as a slow paced Grizzlies team visits. Memphis has just a 89.2 away pace (league avg is 92.8) and the team has an excellent defensive efficiency of 96 (well below the league avg of 107). This series has been an UNDER series, with three of the last four going under. In addition, 23 of the last 29 have gone under when these teams have met.

Red Dog Sports

Wake Forest vs. Arkansas
Play: Wake Forest +11

The Demon Deacons are off to a 2-0 start and just won at Tulane in New Orleans so they don't have far to travel to face Arkansas. Guards Madison Jones and Codi-Mcintyre have some experience and Devon Thomas inside can rebound and score. Wake added a 6'10" player from Greece who has some skills, is starting and contributing. Arkansas is a solid team but I think Danny Manning's team can stay within 10 points.

Rob Vinciletti

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors -2½

This ones from a simple system that has not lost since 1995 and plays on home tams like Toronto with 3+ days of rest off a home spread win while scoring 110 or more if they are taking on a road team that is off a home favored win and cover and also scored 110 or more, like Memphis. The only 5 times this has occurred the home team has won and covered. The Grizzlies are having a solid start at 10-1 and get it down with defense. This is a tough spot against a solid Raptors team that has covered 8 of 10 at home if their were favored last out. Take the Rested Toronto team here.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Matt Fargo

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are still in search of their first victory of the season and while an 0-10 record is nothing to be proud of, the schedulemakers have done them no favors. They have played the toughest schedule in the NBA as they have played six teams ranked within the top ten in the league along with another team ranked in the top 13. Philadelphia has played three teams ranked in the bottom half of the NBA with only one of those coming at home and that resulted in just a two-point loss against the Magic that was decided on the final shot of the game. The Sixers are 2-1-1 ATS as a home underdog. Boston hasn't been playing that much better as it is 3-6 including losses in its last three games, all of which came at home. This is the first road game against a non-quality opponent and the Celtics come in as the favorite, a role they were not much in last season and they went just 1-3 ATS as a road favorite, losing those three games outright. Philadelphia finished with only 19 wins last season but three of those came against Boston. The Celtics are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games following a loss of six points or less while going 1-4 ATS this season after scoring 100 points in their previous game. The schedule remains difficult for the Sixers following this game so tonight presents a great opportunity to break through for that first victory and we will grab the points as added security.

Matt Fargo's Featured Package

Jesse Schule

Philadelphia vs. NY Rangers
Pick: NY Rangers

The Rangers host the Flyers on Wednesday night, in a game featuring two clubs with a .500 record. New York sits two points higher in the standings by virtue of a few more overtime losses. The Flyers have had three days off since losing 6-3 in Montreal on Saturday, while the Rangers are coming off a 5-1 loss to the Lightning on Monday.

Both teams will be looking to dig themselves out of a slump, but I like the Rangers chances on home ice. Philly has struggled on the road, with a record of 2-5, and goaltending continues to be a weakness for the Flyers. Ray Emery allowed six goals on just 28 shots in the loss to the Habs, and both Emery and Mason have a GAA over 3.00.

Henrik Lundqvist wasn't at his best against the Lightning, but he rarely follows up a sub-par performance with another stinker, especially on home ice. The Rangers rode him all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals last year, knocking off the Flyers in the first round.

Philly is 3-13 in it's last 16 trips to New York, and I think we get a great price to back that trend tonight.

Jesse Schule's Featured Package

Ari Atari

Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Boston Celtics -5½

Boston is lighting up the scoreboard and it's time to take notice. This is a lopsided game with both teams hungry for the win. The 76ers have lost 10 in a row but this is truly a top level D-League team and nowhere near a competitor on this level. Averaging only 88.5 points on offense while allowing 105.4 points is nothing short of alarming. Boston is exactly the type of team that can take advantage of this situation without making any adjustments.

Brad Stevens is a good coach and hes being forced to come up with new gameplans but I'm sure he wants his team to gel together. This is the kind of game that gives his players the ability to run the floor and look out for each other. 107.4 points per game is enough to make heads turn. The Celtics want to run and now they've got their chance. After dropping 3 in a row, we can expect them to grab a win on the road against a rag tag bunch of players on a team with no identity.

Boston has the role players to balance out a roster that can always compete. Philly? Not so much. Add in the fact that one of my favorite scenarios takes place here with Philly coming home after 4 game road trip and the play just gets better. Take the Celtics at -5 if you can, but this one should end up with the Celtics winning by 7 or more.

Chase Diamond

LA Clippers vs. Orlando
Play: Orlando +5

This game features the 5-4 Clippers at the 5-7 Magic. The Magic have been playing good basketball for a team of virtual no names. Clippers are off a bad loss at home versus Chicago and now have a very long plane ride to play the Magic. I don’t see the Clippers getting up for this game and see it being a winnable game for the Magic but this game will come down to the end and getting 5 points is a gift at home with a motivated Magic team. 82% of the public are riding the road Clippers here a recipe for slaughter.

Chase Diamond's Featured Package

Scott Spreitzer

Oklahoma -4.5

The Sooners are a legit "Sweet-16" contender this season with Lon Kruger working his magic again. The former K-State Wildcat simply gets it done wherever he goes and in a hurry, bringing the Sooner program back to life just like he did the Runnin' Rebels when he was in Las Vegas. His squad is bolstered by Houston Cougar transfer TaShawn Thomas, who "got his feet wet" in the Sooners' easy opening win. OU has four returning starters altogether, including preseason Big-12 all-conf guard Buddy Hield. Creighton no longer has Doug McDermott to rely on when times are tough. They also lost a couple of his long-time teammates in Ethan Wragge and Grant Gibbs. In all, the Jays lost four starters from last year's team and this version is relying quite a bit thus far on Will Artino. But Artino is a little slow of foot and will be hard-pressed to continue his strong start in this one. This is a rebuilding season for the Jays and there will be growing pains along the way. Look for Oklahoma to deliver some in this early-season contest in Omaha. I'm laying the points with the Sooners.

GoodFella

Toronto -2.5

The Raptors won both meetings between these clubs last season (including a 99-86 home win). The Grizzlies just concluded a 4 game home-stand (4-0 SU & 1-3 ATS) & are coming off a "big game win" over conference rival Houston (blow-out win 119-93) on Monday. IMO, very possible for a bit of a "let down" here for the Grizzlies. Memphis with a quick 1 game roadie here, as they return home to host the Celtics on Friday night. The Raptors are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the entire NBA early on (quietly sitting atop the Eastern Conference at 8-2). Toronto is in the midst of a very lengthy home-stand. Tonight is their 6th game of a 14 day, 7 game home-stand. Their only home loss this season was a week ago vs the Bulls. The Raps are coming off an easy blow-out win over the Jazz on Saturday 111-93 ( granted a very tough spot for the Jazz, as it was their 5th road game in 7 days). Toronto has had the L/3 days off (some will say/think "rust" for the Raps)....perhaps early on, but there is simply no chance that these Raps "won't be up/prepared for this game", IMO. In fact, Toronto is (5-1-1 ATS L/7) games playing on 3 days of rest or more. The Raptors are also (9-3 ATS L/12) games following a win by double digits. The public is all over the "10-1" Grizzlies and the +2.5 here. For me, I am going the other way in what I see as "great value" on this Raptors team at HOME. I have Toronto winning this game by 6 points tonight.

Jeff Clement

Mavericks vs. Wizards
Play: Over 200.5

The Over is 7-3 last 10 Washington home games and the Over is 4-0 last 4 Washington games on 3 days rest or more. The Over is 22-8 last 30 Dallas games against NBA Southeast teams and the Mavericks are the league's highest scoring team with an average of 109.3 while Washington scores 98.7 points per game. Dallas is on a roll right now so I expect they will easily score over 100 points.

Jack Jones

Dallas Mavericks -2.5

The Dallas Mavericks are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They have opened 8-3 with their only three losses coming to San Antonio, Portland and Miami. They are quietly one of the best teams in the West in 2014-15.

Dallas is 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games overall with all four victories coming by 8 points or more. It beat Sacramento (106-98), Philadelphia (123-70), Minnesota (131-117) and Charlotte (107-80) during this stretch.

What makes the Mavericks so difficult to deal with is their offense, which has scored 100-plus points in nine of their 11 games this year. They are averaging 109.3 points per game, shooting 49.2% from the field, and rank 1st in the league in offensive efficiency by a wide margin. They are scoring 115.5 points per 100 possessions, and the next-best is Cleveland (109.7).

Washington is off to a solid 7-2 start this season and has one of the best records in the Eastern Conference. However, a closer look shows that the Wizards have beaten up on a soft schedule. All nine of their games have come against Eastern Conference opponents, and they have yet to beat a team that currently has a winning record.

Both of Washington's losses came against the two best teams that it has faced in Miami (95-107) and Toronto (84-103). It now plays Dallas and Cleveland in its next two games, and we'll find out a lot more about this team during this stretch. The Wizards could also be looking ahead to that game against the Cavaliers on Friday.

This has been a one-sided series to say the least. Dallas is 8-0 in its last eight meetings with Washington with each of the last seven wins coming by 6 points or more. Dallas swept the season series last year winning 105-95 at home and 87-78 on the road.

The Mavericks are 54-21 ATS in their last 75 road games. Dallas is 39-13 ATS in its last 52 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference foes. The Wizards are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games following two or more consecutive wins.

Dave Price

Los Angeles Clippers -5

At 5-4, the Clippers have been a disappointment thus far. However, they have yet to lose consecutive games and will be lacking no focus after an ugly loss to the Bulls. LA has responded well in this spot. It is on an 11-2 ATS run in road games following a loss and a 15-4 ATS run off an upset loss. It is also worth mentioning that the Clippers are on a 15-5 ATS streak as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6.0 points.

Jimmy Boyd

Buffalo Bulls -7

I think this is a great spot to take Buffalo laying just a touchdown at home against a Kent State team that has been fortunate to keep it close enough to cover in their last two games.

The Golden Flashes were outgained by 88-yards and had a -2 turnover margin in a 10-point loss to Toledo and were by 199-yards and had a -3 turnover margin in their 10-point loss to Bowling Green. Kent State trailed 0-23 early against the Rockets and 0-20 versus the Falcons. The Golden Flashes could have just as easily lost by those games by 3+ scores and would likely be a double-digit underdog to Buffalo.

While you don’t want to overreact too much to one game, it’s hard to not be impressed with the way the Bulls came out and dominated Akron last week. Buffalo was a ridiculous +307 in total yards, outgaining the Zips 536 to 229. Not only does that win give the Bulls a huge boost in confidence, they now have a realistic shot at becoming bowl eligible. After taking on 1-9 Kent State, they will visit 3-7 UMass next Friday in the season finale. I don’t think there’s any doubt Buffalo is going to be the more motivated team in this contest.

Based on the numbers that these two teams have put up in 2014, there’s definitely reason to believe the Bulls can win here by more than a touchdown. The Golden Flashes are not strong on either side of the ball. Kent State ranks 121st in total offense (306.0 ypg) and 91st in total defense (435.9 ypg). Only once all season have the Golden Flashes scored more than 20 points and that was at home against an awful Army team. They come in averaging just 10.0 ppg on the road, while Buffalo is putting up 33.2 ppg at home.

Even if the Bulls score a touchdown below their home average and Kent State exceeds their road average by a touchdown, we would still be looking at a final of 26-17 in favor of Buffalo.

The Bulls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a SU win and 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record.

There’s also a nice system in play favoring the Bulls off their big win last week over Akron. Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset win by 10 or more points as a home underdog are 26-5 ATS in conference games since 1992. That's a 84% system in favor of the Bulls.