Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 2

Sean Murphy

Temple @ Ohio
PICK: Ohio +4

We cashed a ticket opposing Temple in the Owls most recent game, a 13-10 setback at Bowling Green. We'll go right back to the well in this spot, as the Owls are once again being overvalued by the oddsmakers and the betting public alike.

Have any of Temple's five wins really been all that impressive this season? Most will point to a 38-7 road win at Maryland, but that was a flat spot for the Terps after opening the season against Miami and West Virginia, and let's face it, they've turned out to be a pretty awful team anyway.

The Owls have certainly had their hands full with Ohio over the last two seasons, dropping both matchups, while giving up 35 and 31 points.

Temple does own an outstanding defense, but it's not as if the Owls have faced a schedule full of offensive juggernauts. Wednesday's game will mark one of their toughest tests to date, as Ohio is averaging over 31 points per game on 451 total yards per contest.

The Bobcats got their minds right, so to speak, in a 37-20 win over Akron last time out. Ohio had dropped three of four SU and four in a row ATS heading into that game.

As I mentioned, the Ohio offense has been productive to say the least this season. Sophomore QB Tyler Tettleton has given the Bobcats a major spark under center, throwing for just shy of 2,000 yards, 17 touchdowns, and only five interceptions. This is an offense that had struggled to put points on the board with the likes of Theo Scott and Boo Jackson at the helm over the last couple of seasons.

Frank Solich always seems to do a good job preparing for Temple, as Ohio is 3-0-1 ATS in this series over the last four years, with its only loss coming by four points on the road in 2008.

The Bobcats own a solid home field edge, having gone 10-2 SU in their last 12 games here Peden Stadium. Note that they've drawn more than 23,000 fans in three of their four home games this season. Take Ohio.

Jim Feist

Coyotes vs Avalanche
Pick: Under

Phoenix heads to the thin Denver air on a two-game win streak, and the under is 7-3-2 in the Coyotes last 12 games following a win. Colorado plays its best defense at home and is 1-0-1 under the total the last two games, both at home, as they wind up a three-game home stand here. The under is 3-0-1 in Avalanche last 4 home games. And when theses teams meet the games have been defensive-oriented, as the under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 under the total in Colorado. Play Phoenix/Colorado Under the total.

David Chan

Maple Leafs @ Devils
PICK: Over 5

I bet value where I see it and believe this will be a high scoring game.

The 7-3-1 Toronto Maple Leafs fly into New Jersey to take on the 4-4-1 Devils on Wednesday night.

New Jersey plays its first home game after a rough road trip, and will likely be welcoming back goaltender Martin Brodeur:

“I feel pretty good,” Brodeur said. “I’m happy about the way it went.

“I don’t feel any limitation or anything, but mentally knowing I hurt my shoulder, I’m hesitant to do certain things.”

Note though that Brodeur went a sub-par 1-2 with a 3.00 GAA vs. the Buds last year.

Toronto is coming off a 3-2 loss to Ottawa on Sunday:

“Our attitude is not to lose two games in a row and what’s happened, happened,” coach Ron Wilson said. “We’ll be focused on the next game.”

Keep your eyes on Phil Kessel who leads the team with 10-goals and 18-assists; he had two goals and an assist vs. the Devils last season, going 2-1-1 in the process.

Brodeur will be opposed by Jonas Gustavsson who has gone 2-2-0 with a 3.03 in his last four starts.

Expect New Jersey to finally get its offense untracked, and for this total to sneak above the posted number!

JR O'Donnell

Temple -3.5

This game will go long way in determining who plays in the MAC Conference Championship game tonight at 8 PM EST with Temple (5-3 6-2 ATS) traveling to the the Ohio Bobcats (5-3 3-5 ATS) for the lead in their side of the conference. Temple has lost to an DYNAMITE "Penn State" team in the last minutes by "4", a very good Toledo team and Bowling Green in OT. The big story for the Owl's is whether Bernard Pierce can play well enough with a bad hamstring to be a factor. He has 951 yards rushing, and "18" TD, and has RB Brown who has also run for 562 yards, so you know Temple's strength is in the run. Pierce has been held out of practice all week so he will be a good as he can be. He wants the NFL scouts to know that he can go a full season without an injury that keeps him out of a game or two. Last week he played with visible pain, and still rushed for 100+ yards vs BGU. Ohio lives off the pass, and are 32nd in the nation, while the Owls are 9th on the ground. Temple scores 28.8 and surrenders only 10, while Ohio U scores 31.9 and allows 20.4. Ohio is 1-4 ATS in their last "5", and 2-4 ATS in their last "6" at home. Even a hamstringed Pierce is better than no Pierce at all, and Temple has beaten two teams Buffalo (+34) and Ball State (+42) that Ohio lost to. Take the Temple Owls

FREE NHL PLAY FOR 11/2/2011: We'll side with the Toronto Maple Leafs +126 (BetOnline) over the N.J. Devils. The Leafs have been playing solid hockey this year. They are finally getting the most out of their talent up front, while also much improved in their own zone. The Leafs are off to a very nice 7-3-1 start. They're coming off a 3-2 loss to Ottawa, but have yet to lose back-to-back games this season. Knowing that they went 2-1-1 vs New Jersey last year, we feel the advantage belongs to the improved Leafs club in this game. It's still unclear who will be in the Crease for the Devils. Martin Brodeur returned to practice on Monday from a shoulder injury that's sidelined him for 2 weeks. If Brodeur does start, we don't expect the 39 year old to be particularly sharp. He was just 1-2-0 with a 3.00 GAA last year vs Toronto. Brodeur has recently commented several times publicly about physical tolls the game has had on him over the years. On the other hand if Johan Hedberg starts in net, this will be his 7th straight start. Hedberg has been solid in net, but is coming off back to back losses, and has dropped 4 of 5. In his 8 NHL seasons, Hedberg's never been a full time starter. So either way we feel Toronto also has the advantage in net. Jonas Gustavsson posted a 1.00 GAA in winning both of his starts against New Jersey in 2010-11. The oddsmakers clearly don't respect the value in the Leafs yet this season, as they are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. We'll take advantage Wednesday Night, playing on Toronto +126. Our Free Plays are documented and are currently 124-66-1, 3-1 L4. Sign up to recieve the best free picks with in-depth analysis today.

SPORTS WAGERS

Toronto +126 over NEW JERSEY

Is there anything to like about the Devils laying a price? We think not, as they’re offensively challenged, they return home from a four-game trip, they’ve lost four of their past five and they have the Flyers on deck tomorrow night. Furthermore, New Jersey seldom outplays anyone and they don’t have the goaltending to compensate for being the second best team on the ice every night. The latest report from about 10:30 AM this morning is that Martin Brodeur will go tonight. That’s sweet and even more reason to play the dog. And how about the frustration that Ilya Kovalchuk must be feeling. Here’s a guy that was free to roam and create offense for the Thrashers and that he did. Playing for the Devils he’s being asked to play responsibly defensively and he is. The problem is that he had just one point, an assist, during the four-game road trip and hasn't scored a goal in five games. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs are gaining steam. They’re not allowing a ton of chances like they were in previous seasons and they’re also taking less penalties. These are all good signs and as a result, Toronto is a well-deserved 7-3-1. They have recent wins over Pittsburgh and the Rangers and even in their loss in Philadelphia they looked sharp. The Leafs catch the Devils in a difficult spot and offer up big value against this very risky favorite. Play: Toronto +126 (Risking 2 units).

NHL Predictions

Flyers / Sabres: Over 5.5

Both teams had gotten off to a quick start, but haven't been too solid lately. The Flyers have dropped to 6-4-1 after losing 4 of their last 6 games. Buffalo has dropped 3 of their last 4 games and are now 6-4 on the year. Neither team is having troubles scoring, with the Flyers averaging 3.7 goals per game and the Sabres averaging 2.9 goals per game. The OVER has hit in 7 straight games for the Flyers, and is 20-7 in their last 27 overall dating back to last season. The OVER is also 7-2 in the Flyers last 9 games as an underdog on the road. The OVER is 7-3 in the Sabres last 10 home games (dating back to last season), and 8-3 in their last 11 games vs a team with a winning record. These two teams often play the OVER, including 5 of their 7 playoff games against each other last season. The OVER iss 22-6 in their last 28 meetings overall, and 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Buffalo. Everything is pointing to the OVER here and I like it. I'll play a unit on the over.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Temple/Ohio Under 48

Temple has played to the under in all 7 of its lined games this season. We've seen an average of 38.8 total points scored in those contests. Dating back to the beginning of last season, Temple is 10-1 under in games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. On the road in this total range, the Owls are a perfect 6-0 under. We've seen just 34.6 total points scored in these six contests. In addition, plays under on all teams, provided the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, off an upset loss to a conference rival - a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record - are 28-7 the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have faced an average total of 46.1 points but have combined with their opponent to score just 37.5 points on average. We'll bet the under.

Dave Price

1 Unit Temple/Ohio Under 48

Temple is 7-0 Under in lined games this season and 9-1 under in lined games on the road since the beginning of last season. We'll make a small play on the Under tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Maple Leafs / Devils
Play: Over 5

Toronto has several Over angles that apply in this one. They have played over the total in 9 of their last 10 road games and 6 of their last 7 overall. When coming off a division game they have gone over 75% of the time and are 20 games over .500 the past several seasons on the road when the posted total is 5 or less. When taking on opponents that are 500 or less they have played over in 4 of the last 5. Toronto also allows the second most goals on the power play while scoring the 3rd most. In the last 3 meetings here between the Devils and Maple leafs all 3 have flown over the total. Devils goalie may be back with this one after suffering the right shoulder ailment and may be a game time decision. Look for this one to go over the total tonight.

Jack Jones

Temple/Ohio UNDER 48

I'm backing the UNDER in this game Wednesday between the Temple Owls and Ohio Bobcats. I believe a defensive battle is highly likely, and I also feel there is even more value with this total now that it has moved up from 46 to 48.

Temple ranks 5th in the country in total defense (263.2 yards/game) and 2nd in scoring defense (10.0 points/game). This is a team that gets after it defensively, and their stop unit usually stays fresh because their offense puts together long, sustained drives. The Owls are rushing for 252.1 yards/game, and they will certainly be pounding the rock again tonight which will keep the clock moving.

Ohio ranks 19th in the FBS in total defense (322.6 yards/game) and 20th in scoring defense (20.4 points/game). The Bobcats have been at their best defensively at home, where they are allowing just 261.0 yards/game and 10.0 points/game in four contests.

Temple is a perfect 7-0 to the UNDER in all games in 2011. Their strategy of ball control and defense has certainly profited UNDER backers a ton of money this year. The Owls and their opponents have combined to score 49 or less points in all eight games this season.

In four home games for Ohio, the UNDER is 3-1 and they are combining with their opponents score just 37.7 points/game on average. The UNDER is 8-0 in Temple's last 8 road games. The Owls are 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 games when the total is between 42.5 and 49. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Buffalo/ Philadelphia Over 5.5: The Over is 22-6 in the last 28 meetings, 7-3 in Buffalo's last 10 home games and 10-3 in Philly's last 13 road games. Last year in the playoffs the Flyers did beat Buffalo in the 7 game series, but they had problems in the net and that proved to be their downfall in the series vs the Bruins. Well the Flyers are still weak in the net as they have allowed 3.3 gpg, which is 28th in the league and it's getting worse as they have allowed 4.3 gpg in their last 6 games. Now despite all the problems they have in the net, the Flyers are still abve .500 on the year thanks to an offense that is 2nd in scoring at 3.7 gpg. Jagr has been impressive of late scoring 5 goals in his last 4 games and they Fyers are also 7th in the league on the PP.. Buffalo also knows how to score as they have put in 2.9 gpg overall, including 3.2 gpg at home, plus they are 9th on the PP. I see just too much offense in this one for it not to hit at least 7 goals.

2 UNIT PLAY

Colorado/ Phoenix Under 5.5: This has been a low scoring series in Colorado, as the OU is 1-4 in the last 5 meetings there, with an average of 4 gpg being scored there and that's just what colorado home games have averaged this year as well. Colorado is desperate to get to winning at home and will shut down this good Phoenix attack, while the Havs will continue to struggle to score on their home ice (1.25 gpg). I see around 4 goals in this one as well.

1 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia +119 over BUFFALO: The sabres want revenge for last year, but the Flyers have just too much ofense for them in this one.