Scott Spreitzer
Wichita State at Tulsa
Play: Wichita State
The 16th ranked Shockers have rocked their first four opponents winning by more than 20 ppg on average. Tonight, they're on the road in Tulsa against a Golden Hurricane team that's basically a two-man team on the offensive end. Shaquille Harrison and Rashad Smith are the only two Tulsa players averaging double-figures in scoring and teams with limited offensive weaponry don't normally fare well against Wichita State. The Shockers are allowing just 58 ppg on 38.9% shooting. While Tulsa has shot well as far as two-point FGs are concerned, they're horrible from the deep perimeter and at the FT line. Tulsa is making just 26% of their 3-point attempts and they will be forced to make outside jumpers in this one. Defensively, the Hurricanes are allowing 85 ppg on 44% shooting during their 0-2 start. They'll face an attack that puts four players in double-figures in scoring per night and has five players averaging at least 8.5 ppg. The Shockers are on a 4-1-1 ATS run in this series and I expect more of the same tonight. I'm laying the points with Wichita State on Wednesday.
Rocketman
Pittsburgh @ Washington
Play: Pittsburgh -115
The Pittsburgh Penguins travel to Washington to take on the Capitals on Wednesday night. Pittsburgh is 23-7 last 30 games in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Pittsburgh is 41-13 last 54 games after a win. Pittsburgh is 38-14 last 52 games when playing on 1 days rest. Pittsburgh is 50-19 last 69 games after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Pittsburgh is 40-17 last 57 games against a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 44-19 last 63 games overall. Washington is 1-5 last 6 games against a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better. Pittsburgh is 4-0 last 4 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Pittsburgh tonight!
Jimmy Boyd
Georgia Tech -7½
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets should dominate Dayton from start to finish in this game. They have three very impressive wins this season, with an average margin of victory at 19.3 points per game. The Dayton Flyers have played a soft schedule, and had to squeak by IPFW in their season opener.
The Yellow Jackets are led in scoring by Trae Golden who averages 15.3 points per game. While Golden will certainly put up another big number tonight, the key to Georgia Tech winning this game in a blowout is going to come from their big men. The Yellow Jackets average 42 rebounds per game, and have four different players pulling in seven or more boards per game.
Steve Janus
Portland Trail Blazers -5
The Trail Blazers have won seven straight, including three in a row on the road. This team is somehow flying under the radar right now, which has them showing some great value as just a 5-point road favorite over the struggling Bucks. Milwaukee has lost five straight and are just 2-7 overall. They have a ton of players fighting injuries right now and even when healthy this is one of the worst teams in the league. While this could be a letdown spot for Portland with Chicago on deck, I just don't see it. Until this team starts getting some publicity for what they are doing and in turn start to get a big head, I'm more than willing to risk a small play on them against a poor team like Milwaukee.
Stephen Nover
Memphis +4
Memphis is a nightmare matchup for the Warriors with its physical play and strong rebounding. This is reflected in the Grizzlies winning 10 straight against Golden State.
The teams met less than two weeks ago and the Warriors were outscored in the paint, 54-18. The results was an easy 108-90 home win for the Grizzlies. Memphis putting up 108 points isn't that shocking since the Grizzlies have averaged 103.4 points during the past 10 meetings against Golden State.
The Warriors are too just small and not physical enough to muscle Memphis' big bodies in particular Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol.
The Warriors also aren't nearly as effective without Stephen Curry, who won't play tonight due to a concussion.
Memphis is playing its best ball winning its last three - all on the road. Randolph is averaging 25.3 points on 65.2 percent shooting and 12.0 rebounds during Memphis' three-game winning streak. The Grizzlies are 6-1 when he scores at least 15.
Randolph had game highs of 23 points and 11 boards against the Warriors two weeks ago.
Wunderdog
Memphis at Golden State
Pick: Golden State -4
Stephen Curry is a big part of the long term picture for Golden State, but he will miss tonight's game after hitting his head on the floor last game. The Warriors are a deep enough team to absorb his loss in the moment. They proved that when Curry was out with an ankle injury in a 2-point road loss at San Antonio, but got the cover. Golden State is off to a 5-0 home start and are now 17-6 here in their last 23. Memphis is better than their 6-5 record, but simply have not hit their stride yet. They will also be a player short tonight as Tony Allen serves a one-game suspension, and they will miss his 9.5 points per game. Teams often step up in the game immediately following a key player injury, and Golden State is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 overall. Lay the short number and play on Golden State.
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TOLEDO (+3) 41 Northern Illinois 33FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Northern Illinois is unbeaten and ranked in the Top-25 but they aren’t the better team in this match up and the Rockets will be fired up to take down an unbeaten visitor. Toledo has won 5 straight games and they’re playing with a lot of confidence, which is a necessary ingredient to beating a highly regarded opponent. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, just had an emotionally charged showdown with Ball State last week and it might be tough for them to bring that same level of intensity for a second straight week. This is also the time of the year when unbeaten teams lose on the road against teams that are playing well. In fact, unbeaten teams at 7-0 or better are just 23-48-2 ATS on the road against a team with a win percentage of .666 or better that has won 2 or more consecutive games, as long as the visitor does not have revenge for a loss to that team the previous season. If the home team has a winning spread record for the season the record goes to 9-38-1 ATS. The teams that don’t succumb as often to this negative situation are the really good defensive team, like Alabama in recent years. If we exclude team that are allowing less than 13 points per game then we are left with 2-27-1 ATS. Not only do those unbeaten teams not cover but they’re just 7-23 straight up. Northern Illinois also applies to a 19-72-2 ATS road letdown situation while Toledo applies to an 83-29-3 ATS home momentum situation. So, this game has the highest situational rating. It also has good line value, as I rate Toledo as the better team.
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Northern Illinois has a great quarterback in dual threat Jordan Lynch, who has once again run for over 1000 yards while also being a better than average passer (7.4 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 7.2 yppp to an average quarterback) that doesn’t make many mistakes with the ball (just 5 interceptions thrown this season). Overall the Northern Illinois offense is 0.8 yards per play better than average when Lynch is in the game (7.1 yppl against teams that would allow 6.3 yppl to an average attack). Toledo’s defense, meanwhile, has allowed 5.6 yppl (excluding the 155 yards on just 10 plays that their backups gave up in a blowout win over Western Michigan) to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team, which is adjusted for facing Florida in week 1 when the Gators had their starting quarterback healthy. Northern Illinois does have a 0.8 yppl advantage over the Toledo defense but the Huskies haven’t been as good, relatively, against decent defensive teams. The Huskies have faced a schedule of mostly horrible defensive teams, with the exclusions being Iowa, a good defense, and Purdue and Akron, who are both worse than average but not as bad as the rest of the stop units that the Huskies have faced. Northern Illinois was 0.6 yppl better than average against Iowa and just average against Purdue and Akron (5.9 yppl, which is what those two teams would allow to an average offensive team). A regression equation predicting Northern Illinois’ yards per play as a function of their opponent’s compensated yards per play (adjusted for home/road) has a slope of 1.36, which teams for every yard worse their opponent is the Huskies have gained 1.36 yards more. In this case, Toledo’s defense is 0.6 yppl better than the average rating of the Huskies’ opponents, which would results in 0.8 yppl less for NIU’s offense rather than 0.6 yppl less. My math model predicts 496 yards at 6.3 yppl for Northern Illinois in this game but it would be 6.1 yppl if the Huskies continued their pattern of playing relatively worse against better defensive teams, which is about a 1½ point difference is scoring.
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The Toledo offense is also led by an outstanding senior quarterback in Terrance Owens, who is averaging 7.0 yppp against teams that would allow just 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback. Owens has help in the form of a potent rushing attack that ranks among the best in the nation at 250 yards per game at 6.6 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.4 yprp to an average team. Toledo’s attack has averaged 6.8 yppl with Owens in the game while facing teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team (adjusted for facing Florida’s defense in week 1 before the Gators were hit hard by injuries). Toledo’s offense is actually 0.2 yppl better than the Northern Illinois offense and the Rockets’ average defense is better than an NIU stop unit that rates at 0.3 yppl worse than average (5.5 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team). That defense hasn’t faced an offense as good as the Toledo offense they’re going to face tonight but they did given up 39 points on 577 yards at 6.9 yppl to Eastern Illinois, which is the best offensive team that they have faced (Eastern Illinois is 0.7 yppl better than an average FBS offense). Ball State (0.3 yppl better than average) and Iowa (+0.1 yppl) are the only other 2 better than average offenses that NIU has faced and the Huskies gave up an average of 476 total yards and 27 points to those teams. My math model projects 530 yards at 6.9 yppl for Toledo in this game.
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As I’ve just chronicled, Toledo is actually better than Northern Illinois on both sides of the ball and I rate the Rockets slightly better in special teams with turnovers projected to be even. Toledo should be favored at home in this game, although my points based model would favor Northern Illinois by 1 point. Regardless, there is line value on the side of Toledo and my model gives the Rockets a 59.8% chance of covering at +3 points based solely on the math (that is based on the historical performance of my model). The situation is strongly in favor of Toledo, which enhances that percentage and the crowd is going to be fired up hosting a nationally ranked team and unbeaten team. Toledo is 54-33 ATS all time in the Glass Bowl, including 53-28 ATS when not laying 28 points or more.
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Northern Illinois -2.5 over the ToledoFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The 16th ranked Northern Illinois Huskies head to the Glass Bowl to take on the Toledo Rockets. The high octane Huskies offense has been on a tear all year long and Huskies quarterback Jordan Lynch's name is starting to become a topic of possible Heisman Trophy candidates. Lynch this season has completed over 65% of his passes for a total of 2,216 yards, 21 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions respectively. The Huskies are coming off of a huge win last weekend as they snapped the Ball State Cardinals seven-game win streak and with a win tonight they would clinch the West Crown. The Rockets are on a five-game win streak themselves and are looking to play spoiler at home. The Rockets are led by quarterback Terrance Owens who has passed for 1,837 yards, 13 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. The Rockets are still in the thick of the West but would have to win its remaining two games to have a shot and that does not fare well for them going against a Huskies team that has won fourteen consecutive road games and have won twenty-three consecutive in conference games. The Rockets leading rusher David Fluellen is questionable for tonight's game which will hurt a Rockets ground game which is their bread and butter ranking 14th in rushing and averaging 247 yards per game on the ground. The Huskies are on a mission and although the Rockets are a tough opponent I just do not see them keeping up offensively with this Huskies squad. Take the Huskies and the -2.5 here and be ready to see an offensive show down tonight.
EZWINNERS
Toledo +2
This is one of those lines that just seems to be begging for Northern Illinois money. I feel like Vegas could have opened this game much higher and still attracted a lot of money on the Huskies. The Huskies are are looking to crash the BCS for a second straight year and have won fourteen straight road games. Last week they got past Ball State which many felt like was going to be their biggest hurdle remaining in the season but I expect Toledo to be their stumbling block. The Rockets have won five straight games and remain in the hunt to win the MAC West but must win this game against the Huskies and then next week against Akron. NIU's offense is 4th in the nation in total yards and 8th in the nation in rushing, but the Rockets are not far behind with their offensive production. The Rockets are 38th in the nation in total offense at 456 yards per game and they are 14th in the nation in rushing at almost 209 yards per game. NIU has won the last three meetings between these two teams but Toledo has given the Huskies problems. In their last trip to the Glass Bowl the Huskies scored a touchdown with 19 seconds left in the game to escape with a 63-60 win. There will be a huge crowd on hand for this game as Toledo mayor Mike Bell who played for the Rockets in the 1973-76 seasons has proclaimed Wednesday as "Toledo Rocket Football Day." Take the points.
Joe Gavazzi
Portland Trailblazers at Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Portland Trailblazers
The Blazers have been an early season meal ticket for us. They are far more healthy this year than last, with an interior core of Aldridge, Lopez and Batum. Lillard and Matthews parole the perimeter. The results speak for themselves with 7 straight wins and 8 straight covers. Milwaukee has been far less healthy with Sanders out for an extended period of time. Knight Butler and Ilysasova all remain questionable for this game with lingering injuries. The Bucks have dropped 5 straight to fall to 2-7 SU. We ride the momentum of both teams.
Larry Ness
Sacramento Kings vs Phoenix Suns
Pick: Phoenix Suns
Phoenix shocked just about everyone opening 5-2 SU and going 7-0-1 ATS over its first eight games (5-3 SU). However, after letting one “slip away” last night in Sacramento, the Suns have lost three straight, falling back to .500. The Suns held a late seven-point lead at Sacramento but committed THREE straight turnovers in the closing minutes, allowing the Kings to score the final 10 points for a 107-104 victory. Last night’s loss followed the Suns allowing a go-ahead layup with seven seconds left in Wednesday's 90-89 loss at Portland, before Phoenix suffered a 100-98 overtime defeat to Brooklyn two nights later.
The Sacramento win was only its second in nine games (3-7 on the season), as DeMarcus Cousins had 27 points and 12 rebounds to lead the Kings. First-round pick Ben McLemore (8.6) and Isaiah Thomas (17.9-4.7 APG) each added 19 points for Sacramento. The Kings have now won three straight games against Phoenix, following a string of five losses in the series, but will have to win on the road, where they are playing for just the THIRD time this season (0-2 SU and 0-1-1 ATS, getting outscored 101.0-to-89.0 PPG).
I’d be ‘jumping all over’ the Suns in this quick turnaround, if not for the fact that Eric Bledsoe (20.4-4.6-6.8) missed Tuesday's game with a bruised shin and is considered day-to-day. Even so, I’ll make a small play on Phoenix.
GamePlan
Miami vs. Orlando
Pick: Orlando +7.5
The Heat cruised last night to a 16 point win at home. They travel to Orlando today for a back-to-back that the older Heat players are dread. Orlando stinks but expect them to play inspired tonight. Take the Magic plsu the big home number.
Dave Price
Orlando Magic +8
This is a tough spot for the reigning champs as this will be their second game in as many nights and fourth in six days. The Magic have had three full days to rest up and prepare for this battle so they will definitely be the fresher side. The Magic are 4-2 at home where they have an eight-point win over the Clippers and a 21-point victory over a Brooklyn squad that handed Miami one of its three defeats. The Magic haven't lost by more than eight points at home this season and are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Heat won and covered versus Atlanta last night, but they are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU win and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. The Heat are also just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Orlando. Take the points.
Jack Jones
Dallas Mavericks -3
The Dallas Mavericks want revenge from a 105-113 loss at Houston in their first meeting of the season. Considering they come in on one days' rest while Houston will be playing the second of a back-to-back, I like their chances of getting the job done at home tonight.
Dallas has gone 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by an average of 10.6 points per game at home this year. Houston is 3-2 on the road while giving up a whopping 112.0 points per game away from home.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Rockets and Mavericks. The home team has won six of the past seven meetings. Better yet, Dallas is a perfect 6-0 in its last six home meetings with Houston having not lost since December of 2009.
The Mavericks are 18-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the past two seasons. The Rockets are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Dallas is 25-7 ATS in its last 32 games following an ATS loss. The Mavericks are 39-19 ATS in their last 58 games overall. Dallas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Houston. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday.
Jeff Alexander
Timberwolves +1
The T-Wolves played the Clippers to a 2-point game on the road, and I expect them to have their revenge at home where they are 5-1 on the season. The Clippers are a pathetic 2-11 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by 5.0 points on average. The Timberwolves are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a loss and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games versus a team with a losing road record.